Will Wages Decline After Brexit For Truck Drivers

[rjan]

mike68:
Reading some of the posts which some seem quite bizarre.

Could somebody please explain how non EU citizens who do not have the right to settle in this country unless they have valuable skills (Doctors Nurses and the professions that we are in short supply of) are now suddenly going to be able to come here in great numbers and drive trucks when nobody including those from the EU are no longer allowed.

Not what a man down the pub told you, proper documented legislation.

You’ve answered your own question man. Truck driving is already routinely declared “a valuable skill in short supply”. In London where the sheer cost of living requires higher wages to be paid, a toilet cleaner on the lowest possible wage can be declared “a valuable skill in short supply”.

[winseer]

mike68:
Reading some of the posts which some seem quite bizarre.

Could somebody please explain how non EU citizens who do not have the right to settle in this country unless they have valuable skills (Doctors Nurses and the professions that we are in short supply of) are now suddenly going to be able to come here in great numbers and drive trucks when nobody including those from the EU are no longer allowed.

Not what a man down the pub told you, proper documented legislation.

“Non EU citizens” are those waved through the EU continental nations to the UK, where they get rescued from the channel, housed, given benefits - and of course free treatment at the NHS, if not an actual Tax-Credits generating JOB at the NHS…!

They are not supposed to be permitted here, but yet they ARE here. When was the last boadload of “Syrian Kids aged 25-30” sent back to where it came from? They seem to have left their minors and women behind in any case, along with the missing Syrian accent, that is instead rather Turkish or Iranian sounding…

What happens if one or more of them says “No Papers, but I’m a doctor”…?

[winseer]

Rjan:

mike68:
Reading some of the posts which some seem quite bizarre.

Could somebody please explain how non EU citizens who do not have the right to settle in this country unless they have valuable skills (Doctors Nurses and the professions that we are in short supply of) are now suddenly going to be able to come here in great numbers and drive trucks when nobody including those from the EU are no longer allowed.

Not what a man down the pub told you, proper documented legislation.

You’ve answered your own question man. Truck driving is already routinely declared “a valuable skill in short supply”. In London where the sheer cost of living requires higher wages to be paid, a toilet cleaner on the lowest possible wage can be declared “a valuable skill in short supply”.

Property Prices in London are now falling. Property prices elsewhere? - Not so - yet.

If a Landlord wants to charge £520 a week for rent, then even with “capped” Housing Benefits - you can do quite well in London on a “Maximum” £520 per week in Housing Benefit. We’re not talking about monthly rent here, as you wouldn’t get a Dog Kennel inside the M25 for THAT.

Now work out how much your top line would need to be to just pay the RENT - if one didn’t have a ground-scraping hourly rate to claim the maximum amount of tax credits?

“The Poverty Gap” - The level where benefits taper off rapidly, due to increasing income.

£15,000 in London - Get a £5000 top-up, which in itself is tax free. Poll tax also paid, Housing benefit upto £520pw as well. Free Prescriptions.

£25,000 in London - get NO top up, and have to pay for everything yourself, except the Housing Benefit, which one still qualifies for. Poll Tax is £80pw average say, but if you top line 25k - you’re taking home about 21k after Tax & NICs. So you’re earning £10,000 more, £200pw gross more, but take home just enough extra to pay the poll tax…

SO… one is left needing to “Jump the Poverty Gap” - If your boss offers you a payrise from £15,000 say, it might be worth forgoing any uplift until you actually get PROMOTED to more than a £25k salary…

How many people on low pay - KEEP it low, by refusing to do overtime for instance?

You only need to work 30 hours per week - to claim the maximum in tax credits.

Now take a look at that advert you see on London Buses… “£500 per week” with overtime.
It would be a far more rewarding job - if it were £300 per week part time - wouldn’t it?

[mike68]

One of the biggest reasons for the average working man to vote to leave the EU was immigration, not being able to get a school place for their children, not being able to get a doctors appointment the availability of housing, the lowering of living standards and so on.

If any of you really believe that workers from outside Europe are going to be shipped in to drive trucks or any other menial semi skilled job then you are mistaken, the wages along with the economy are doing well despite the doom mongerers saying otherwise.

With the very real possibility of a hard brexit the economy will shrink in the short term probably for about 18 months while we get all the necessary legislation onto the statute books and all the trade deals in place, we currently under perform economically there is capacity for us as a nation to do much better outside of the EU.

Remember one thing, take a look around, all the German and French cars all the Brits spending millions in Spain and all the other EU countries when we holiday, all the products and most importantly the square mile in London the worlds financial capital.

I don’t see Boris Johnson rushing around meeting all the other EU leaders in an attempt to do a deal, the deal is dead and rightly so.

The EU is massive con I voted out because of the creeping federalism and the eventual loss of identity and the increasing control being asked for by Brussels the only two countries who really benefit are the French (agricultural subsidies) and the Germans (manufacturing).

Im quite happy for us to have a free trade agreement and travel agreements with the EU I’m not happy with losing our self determination.

And my wages are increasing quite well year on year, not what they should but not to bad, and the agency hourly rates are now higher than the full timers which for me is a good sign.

[mike68]

Winseer:

mike68:
Reading some of the posts which some seem quite bizarre.

Could somebody please explain how non EU citizens who do not have the right to settle in this country unless they have valuable skills (Doctors Nurses and the professions that we are in short supply of) are now suddenly going to be able to come here in great numbers and drive trucks when nobody including those from the EU are no longer allowed.

Not what a man down the pub told you, proper documented legislation.

“Non EU citizens” are those waved through the EU continental nations to the UK, where they get rescued from the channel, housed, given benefits - and of course free treatment at the NHS, if not an actual Tax-Credits generating JOB at the NHS…!
0

They are not supposed to be permitted here, but yet they ARE here. When was the last boadload of “Syrian Kids aged 25-30” sent back to where it came from? They seem to have left their minors and women behind in any case, along with the missing Syrian accent, that is instead rather Turkish or Iranian sounding…

What happens if one or more of them says “No Papers, but I’m a doctor”…?

I have never met any of the above driving a truck or otherwise genuine refugees are allowed into this country in very small numbers when you compare to other EU countries, as for trying to chance it as a doctor no way, even qualified doctors from overseas have to undergo rigorous testing and re training before they are allowed to practice within the NHS.

If, and this is a big if the country does require labour as it did post war, those who come will come in relatively small numbers.

[franglais]

mike68:
One of the biggest reasons for the average working man to vote to leave the EU was immigration, not being able to get a school place for their children, not being able to get a doctors appointment the availability of housing, the lowering of living standards and so on.

If any of you really believe that workers from outside Europe are going to be shipped in to drive trucks or any other menial semi skilled job then you are mistaken, the wages along with the economy are doing well despite the doom mongerers saying otherwise.

With the very real possibility of a hard brexit the economy will shrink in the short term probably for about 18 months while we get all the necessary legislation onto the statute books and all the trade deals in place, we currently under perform economically there is capacity for us as a nation to do much better outside of the EU.

Remember one thing, take a look around, all the German and French cars all the Brits spending millions in Spain and all the other EU countries when we holiday, all the products and most importantly the square mile in London the worlds financial capital.

I don’t see Boris Johnson rushing around meeting all the other EU leaders in an attempt to do a deal, the deal is dead and rightly so.

The EU is massive con I voted out because of the creeping federalism and the eventual loss of identity and the increasing control being asked for by Brussels the only two countries who really benefit are the French (agricultural subsidies) and the Germans (manufacturing).

Im quite happy for us to have a free trade agreement and travel agreements with the EU I’m not happy with losing our self determination.

And my wages are increasing quite well year on year, not what they should but not to bad, and the agency hourly rates are now higher than the full timers which for me is a good sign.

If there are insufficient schools places or places on doctors lists, you choose to blame the people who work in the UK, and pay taxes, and contribute to the general wealth of the country.
I choose to put more blame on the Government who chooses to underfund health, education and policing etc, whilst giving tax breaks to the richer members of society.
.
There has not been a sudden expected wave of immigrants.
For years we have had cuts to what I, and it seems you too, think are essential services, that we rightly hold up as part of British society.
I hold the Gov to blame for this by under investing at the same time as cutting higher rates of income tax.
.
And Brexit means nothing to immigration.
You’re correct lots of votes were influenced by that issue, but look at what the Brexiteers in Government say about labour movement. They do not want to stop it. Gove has spoken of extra cheap labour from outside the EU to help out farmers and more recently fish processors. Wages won’t go up to help us. Cheaper labour will come in.
Some other Brexiteers talk more strongly about stopping immigration but these are not in Government and won’t be writing the new rule book.
.
On topic again, wages for us won’t go up.
There are likely to be cuts in production industries meaning job losses. Patrick Minford the tame Tory Brexit economist says this. He also says No Deal Brexit is undesirable. And he is on their team!
Less production means fewer trucks needed and more people available to drive them.
.
If there aren’t enough hospitals and schools the fault lies squarely with the party that has been in power for years.

[juddian]

There’ll be stacks of work for us in our industry, constant and accelerating immigration alone means we run 364 days and nights of the year to keep the food and support services going, why do you think they’re spending £millions making 4 lane running on the nations motorways? its for the ever more people planned to come here to be serviced.

If we had zero manufacturing industry we’d still be flat out carrying food around, not to mention the hundreds of warehouses stacked to the roof with Chinese rubbish people are desperate to own needing movement.

[nightline]

So the wages won’t decline but yet some posts say they will be bringing in cheaper labour than what’s already there to do the job
So it definitely won’t ever improve and if you bring in cheaper labour it will decline nothing surer
Now it’s hard to believe how it could decline any more than it is but when you bring worker’s from lets say third world countries then you have no idea how low the standards will go and the money
With a no deal any here now is ok but come no deal a frenchman will have a hard job getting a permit so your pole or others have no hope

[harry_monk]

The bottom line is that nobody knows what the effect on wages will be after Brexit. Anyone who claims to be able to predict it with any degree of accuracy is simply a BS artist.

[nightline]

Harry Monk:
The bottom line is that nobody knows what the effect on wages will be after Brexit. Anyone who claims to be able to predict it with any degree of accuracy is simply a BS artist.

So was everyone taking bs when Poland joined and people said the cheap labour is coming
And the same about the other countries
Most people on here blame that for the decline in wages

[andiehyde]

Juddian:
There’ll be stacks of work for us in our industry, constant and accelerating immigration alone means we run 364 days and nights of the year to keep the food and support services going, why do you think they’re spending £millions making 4 lane running on the nations motorways? its for the ever more people planned to come here to be serviced.

If we had zero manufacturing industry we’d still be flat out carrying food around, not to mention the hundreds of warehouses stacked to the roof with Chinese rubbish people are desperate to own needing movement.

For the one simple reason that people are economic activity and getting more of them is stimulating that economy.
More tea, Mr.Ponzi?

[andiehyde]

Harry Monk:
The bottom line is that nobody knows what the effect on wages will be after Brexit. Anyone who claims to be able to predict it with any degree of accuracy is simply a BS artist.

And today’s winner of the internet.

[andiehyde]

Here’s another wild card entry to this rampant speculation.

Say minimum wage gets abolished and a free for all with short term visas become the norm where hopefuls from around the world can come and drive trucks for a £1/hour = your screwed.

But…

What if everything goes the other way, stringent immigration leading to higher wages in the transport industry. “IF” truck drivers started making over £50000 a year.
How many class one holding ex-pats are likely to be tempted to come back■■?

[nightline]

AndieHyde:
Here’s another wild card entry to this rampant speculation.

Say minimum wage gets abolished and a free for all with short term visas become the norm where hopefuls from around the world can come and drive trucks for a £1/hour = your screwed.

But…

What if everything goes the other way, stringent immigration leading to higher wages in the transport industry. “IF” truck drivers started making over £50000 a year.
How many class one holding ex-pats are likely to be tempted to come back■■?

Keep on dreaming it must be a ■■■■ when you wake up and realize o ■■■■ it was only a dream
For anything like that to happen you need unity
Never ever will happen

[owenmoney]

With a no deal any here now is ok but come no deal a frenchman will have a hard job getting a permit so your pole or others have no hope

Are there many French driver’s on for UK firms at the moment ? Why ?
When we get more money with better conditions in France and especially a better work / life balance .

[winseer]

Gotta take a VIEW folks. If you don’t want to “Gamble” you might believe that “not taking a view” gets you out of any “risks” associated with “Gambling”.

Not so, though.

If you are not prepared to gamble what you have - then rest assured, someone else WILL be prepared to gamble your livelihood, your house, your cash, and even your life, not even necessarily for their own future prosperity.

“Globalization” has already joined us all at the hip so we cannot take any risks on for ourselves, without spreading that risk among a load of others, many of whom didn’t even realize they were betting chips being shoved across some ethereal green baize…

Remember how our Illustrious Bank of England then under the command of Norman Lamont, then Chancellor, and Robin (Banks) Leigh-Pemberton, the then Governor of the Bank of England threw away over £3,000,000,000 of taxpayer’s cash, over £1billion of it ending up in the pocket of Geroge Soros who’d bet heavily against the UK government/Bank of England alliance.

Black Wednesday

Around 4m Mortgage Payers, in particular those who’d purchased their properties since 1988, and were already in negative equity - lost their homes, unable to afford interest-only payments even, following the Treasury’s disasterious move to hike interest rates to 15%, by far the daftest thing the Tories had ever done, and proving that they were just as bad at managing the economy against foreign gamblers betting against us as Labour. Alistair Darling and Mervyn King - managed to ■■■■ it up all over again by bailing out the Banks using taxpayer cash (most of which was then consolidated as a loss for the taxpayer under George Osbourne) which shows us how USELESS any government containing “No Professional Risk Takers” Whatsoever IS to the UK taxpayer.

I would have let the pound float in 1992, and in 2008 I would have let every bank with it’s hand too deep in the sub prime market to get out alive - sink or swim on it’s own merits and hard efforts to stay alive.

Interestingly, Nigel Farage is an Ex-Metals trader, meaning that he DOES have some experience of “Gambling” in the financial world - Not that the mainstream wishes anyone to realize what a great asset he’d be against the Globalists, should he ever find himself in that place that thus far - has barred him from even becoming a “Back Bencher”.

[franglais]

AndieHyde:

Harry Monk:
The bottom line is that nobody knows what the effect on wages will be after Brexit. Anyone who claims to be able to predict it with any degree of accuracy is simply a BS artist.

And today’s winner of the internet.

Just hold that thought when we are told about all the fantastic new trade deals we can get…
.
Edit to add.
We need to make decisions about our future all the time. Saying that
“No one knows what will happen”, although strictly true is a cop out. We need to make a best guess to buy insurance, save for a pension, plan a holiday. I tend to listen to the best majority of expert economists rather than maverick odd balls.
The odd ball characters may be good for a laugh down the pub, but I would rather see a serious academic holding the scalpel as I went under an anaesthetic, same with my bank manager. And my PM.

[mazzer2]

Franglais:

AndieHyde:

Harry Monk:
The bottom line is that nobody knows what the effect on wages will be after Brexit. Anyone who claims to be able to predict it with any degree of accuracy is simply a BS artist.

And today’s winner of the internet.

Just hold that thought when we are told about all the fantastic new trade deals we can get…
.
Edit to add.
We need to make decisions about our future all the time. Saying that
“No one knows what will happen”, although strictly true is a cop out. We need to make a best guess to buy insurance, save for a pension, plan a holiday. I tend to listen to the best majority of expert economists rather than maverick odd balls.
The odd ball characters may be good for a laugh down the pub, but I would rather see a serious academic holding the scalpel as I went under an anaesthetic, same with my bank manager. And my PM.

To be fair not going slate surgeons but economists hold no credibility you say you wouldn’t listen to a maverick economist but it was only the maverick economists who predicted the 2008 crash while all the ‘credible’ ones ignored all the indicators of what was about to happen. Economists are too closely tied into the financial sector and big business to be able to give unbiased advice or from left leaning academic institutions whose economics are along side John McDonnells and therefore any form of capitalism is bad

[franglais]

Mazzer2:

Franglais:

AndieHyde:

Harry Monk:
The bottom line is that nobody knows what the effect on wages will be after Brexit. Anyone who claims to be able to predict it with any degree of accuracy is simply a BS artist.

And today’s winner of the internet.

Just hold that thought when we are told about all the fantastic new trade deals we can get…
.
Edit to add.
We need to make decisions about our future all the time. Saying that
“No one knows what will happen”, although strictly true is a cop out. We need to make a best guess to buy insurance, save for a pension, plan a holiday. I tend to listen to the best majority of expert economists rather than maverick odd balls.
The odd ball characters may be good for a laugh down the pub, but I would rather see a serious academic holding the scalpel as I went under an anaesthetic, same with my bank manager. And my PM.

To be fair not going slate surgeons but economists hold no credibility you say you wouldn’t listen to a maverick economist but it was only the maverick economists who predicted the 2008 crash while all the ‘credible’ ones ignored all the indicators of what was about to happen. Economists are too closely tied into the financial sector and big business to be able to give unbiased advice or from left leaning academic institutions whose economics are along side John McDonnells and therefore any form of capitalism is bad

That needs some closer inspection.
.
Look at volcanology.
Experts can say a volcano will blow, but not accurately when.
Economists can say there is a bubble but not accurately predict when it will burst.
Other expert investors choose to ignore (or downplay) risk as they don’t want to be the first out of a still rising market.
They accept that risk, and underplay it to their clients. It pays to take risk in a rising market.
And even when it doesn’t actually pay, the perception of investors is that it does pay.
We as humans tend to remember sunny days, don’t we? We tend to remember our good gambles and ignore our losses.
It’s a big subject with a lot of research and literature on it.
.
And what about reporting?
A newspaper or website with an agenda…most of them… may under report warnings? Post market failure it will then say there were no warnings, although there may well have been warnings, but that site was remiss in not reporting them.
.
Your’s is a valid point, I reckon, but it ain’t that simple.

[grandpa]

It’s bound to turn political, but it’s really not that difficult. If I’m after drivers and I can get two E. Europeans for the price of a Brit, guess which I’ll have. You will then either have to lower your rate to that of the others, or not work. It’s why there are so many foreigners driving and so many Brits complaining and why wage rates have stagnated for a decade.

The other day I got an offer which was outside my commute, so I had to turn it down. I was then emailed back and the rate was increased by 10%. That’s not because they wanted to, it’s because they had to and there was no one else at short notice to do it.

Someone did a thread a few weeks ago about a general haulage company that employs foreigners, bunks them up in dormitories, looks after them, they live there … How much a week do you think they take home after he’s made a profit off them for doing his welfare bit? How can we compete against that?

Watch these companies squeal if we hard Brexit and they have to finally pay a wage that reflects the skills and knowledge to drive a truck and the responsibility that goes with it. £10/11ph, some with no o/t rate, others that pay a flat rate across days and nights, umbrella companies … You have to be a special kind of stupid to believe that importing cheap labour would increase wage rates.