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Edit to add.
We need to make decisions about our future all the time. Saying that
“No one knows what will happen”, although strictly true is a cop out. We need to make a best guess to buy insurance, save for a pension, plan a holiday. I tend to listen to the best majority of expert economists rather than maverick odd balls.
The odd ball characters may be good for a laugh down the pub, but I would rather see a serious academic holding the scalpel as I went under an anaesthetic, same with my bank manager. And my PM.
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To be fair not going slate surgeons but economists hold no credibility you say you wouldn’t listen to a maverick economist but it was only the maverick economists who predicted the 2008 crash while all the ‘credible’ ones ignored all the indicators of what was about to happen. Economists are too closely tied into the financial sector and big business to be able to give unbiased advice or from left leaning academic institutions whose economics are along side John McDonnells and therefore any form of capitalism is bad
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That needs some closer inspection.
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Look at volcanology.
Experts can say a volcano will blow, but not accurately when.
Economists can say there is a bubble but not accurately predict when it will burst.
Other expert investors choose to ignore (or downplay) risk as they don’t want to be the first out of a still rising market.
They accept that risk, and underplay it to their clients. It pays to take risk in a rising market.
And even when it doesn’t actually pay, the perception of investors is that it does pay.
We as humans tend to remember sunny days, don’t we? We tend to remember our good gambles and ignore our losses.
It’s a big subject with a lot of research and literature on it.
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And what about reporting?
A newspaper or website with an agenda…most of them… may under report warnings? Post market failure it will then say there were no warnings, although there may well have been warnings, but that site was remiss in not reporting them.
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Your’s is a valid point, I reckon, but it ain’t that simple.
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If we actually based predictions of the future upon what has actually come to pass already then these “forecasts” would be a lot more accurate, one might think. Silly thing is - that is the way the FINANCIAL world USED to base their “Forward Guidance” on! For example, the price of Gold has rallied more strongly in the past week than it has for the past decade. That means any Investment Banker would likely be filling their boots “going long of Gold” themselves based upon this recently sharply bullish trend in Gold at least. What’s not being paid so much close attention to though - is the rally in the bond markets, which suggest that lower rather than higher interest rates are on the way again… How does the hapless member of the public benefit from that though?
Don’t take out a fixed-rate mortgage - because you’ve got a pretty good idea that rates will NOT be going higher in the short to medium term, which is all one is worried about with these 2-5 year fixed rate “Products”, with “fixed” being the operative word there. 
A bigger picture would make the suggestion that a “Major currency is about to fail” upon looking at this new strong bull market in Gold… It used to be about “Inflationary pressures in currencies pegged to the USD” - BUT the rally in the US bond markets especially - suggest that “Inflation” is NOT the cause of this particular Gold rally.
If you build your town on the slopes of a volcano - then you’ll have bumper harvests likely for years and years, until the sudden eruption gets you.
Pompeii was a prosperous town - right up to August 79 when it got trashed by the eruption of Vesuvius right next door…
Vesuvious erupted in 1944 as well. But since then? Do people living in say, Naples feel they “have to get out of town fast” for their own safety?
I’d argue that most of the time, it is worth taking a high risk with a small liability - IF the upsides meanwhile are good enough.
The other way around is when we take NO risks with a HIGH liability. That is the situation that arises when “to act is to survive, to mark time is to perish”.
Daft thing there is that these “Extinction Rebellion” nutters seem to think “doing nothing about climate change” is THE latter scenario to follow.
I’d reverse that argument though, and say that Brexit is the thing that MUST get done, whilst Climate Change is something we cannot do anything about other than “prepare”. Canute will NEVER succeed in “ordering the tide to stop coming in”.
Brexit is “Risk Takers” vs “Risk Averse”.
