Winseer:
Herbert1561:
Winseer:
Herbert1561:
If we leave the EU, truck drivers’ wages will be lower, not higher. It’s complicated how this works (it isn’t as simple as Nigel Farage’s “this then that” logic), but it is the truth. Wages will be lower, not higher. There will be fewer jobs for British people, not more.
Don’t listen to the Sun and other Murdoch newspapers. Rupert Murdoch wants us to leave, and he and other members of the plutocracy are engaging in a (very successful) effort to convince poor people that this is good for them. It is not unlike their efforts with the Tea Party in the US, where they convinced the working classes that a low-tax-low-spend economic model was somehow in their best interests.
Seriously. Listen to the trade unions. This will be very bad for us, and for our children, and for our grandchildren. This cannot be undone in 5 years if we make a mistake. This is permanent.
Why are the trade Unions right about this, when they were wrong about the coal mines, wrong in 1979, and wrong allowing any reforms over the years for examples?
Wages can only be lower if there are a glut of MORE people chasing FEWER jobs. Brexit will surely stop any more newcomers straight away, and eventually discourage those already here to go home again - at least under a more right-shifting Tory government post-Brexit. Eg. “Cut benefits for all immigrants” which we cannot do at present, as it’s against EU law.
Jobs disappear? - I don’t work for Brussels. I cart food about for a firm that’s ultimately owned by an american multinational. People will still eat after Brexit, and belts won’t get tightened unless jobs go. Jobs won’t go unless belts get tightened… Get it? It takes a lot more than you might think to break the economic cycle - especially in the relatively “Recession Proof” industries…
There will be less foreign trucks coming here with their produce as well -unless the EU give us a palatable deal to be going on with. If they DON’T, then they’d be cutting off their OWN trade profit, whilst we can send merchant shipping anywhere in the world that’s got produce and a port - and make “alternative arrangements”. That’s LESS FOREIGN TRUCKS rather than “less of ours” on the roads.
Is there anyone on here who’s British, drives only within the UK, and their job is ONLY fetching imported stuff from ports, and then delivering it around the UK? - There will be a lot more jobs like this - I suggest.
If Johnny Foreigner isn’t bringing it in by ferry any more - it comes in by ship, and WE go and get it!
Wages will be higher - and that might stoke inflation. THAT is the “risk” here.
The demand won’t go down - because we won’t suddenly be losing all those millions already here overnight…
Financial markets will have a dip, and then a bounce - as is usual in these “upheaval” situations.
I suggest that Brexit will be non more of an upheaval than it was in 1997 when we finally decided at that time to “chuck the Tories, and take a chance on New Labour”… 
Winseer, what you are proposing consists of your own economic theory.
It is possible that you are correct.
But wouldn’t you want to be more sure about it? Wouldn’t you want to check to see if the majority of economists agree with your theory? Or if other independent outsiders (people from other countries like the US, Japan etc, not in the EU) agree?
If you honestly look into it, you will see that they don’t agree with you. In fact, there is NEAR UNANIMOUS agreement among economists regarding what will happen to the economy, and to wages, in Britain when we leave. There are a couple of lone voices disagreeing with them, just like there are with the climate change debate. It is always possible to find the occasional lone voice disagreeing with anything (there are even scientists who firmly believe that the world was created in 6 days). You can find the odd economist who says that Britain will be better off outside the EU. But ALMOST ALL of them say the opposite. It is the closest thing to a complete consensus on a topic that has ever existed in economics.
Here are just two examples of polls of HUNDREDS of leading economists: ft.com/cms/s/2/1a86ab36-afbe … z4BgW4QgVp.
Given all of this, will you change your mind, or will you continue to believe that your economic theory is correct and that all of the experts are wrong?
When it comes to “successfully predicting the financial markets” there are “those that can - do” and “those that can’t - become analysts”.
I’m somewhere in between. No official qualifications in anything “economic”, but some years of experience of trading many of the different markets, officially designating me as “intermediate” investor.
Anyone who thinks they KNOW what will happen overnight Thursday - will be betting substantial amounts of money upon “that view”.
Among trading circles it’s said that “Nothing gives you a right to your opinion quite like putting your money where your mouth is.”
or…
“If you don’t back your own judgement - you don’t really believe it yourself, and can therefore be reliably ignored”.
OF all those so-called “Economic experts” then - filter off those who “don’t have any of their own money riding upon the referendum outcome” - and those that are left? - Let’s watch what they do.
I’ve reason to believe for example, that George Soros has BOUGHT a large sterling position in the market. He’ll lose heavily if we now do Brexit - assuming of course that Brexit will make the market FALL as the “experts” predict!
The Bank of England has a massive long position in Euros - the ECB have been ordering them to “prop up the Eurocurrency” for years now. If we saw a devaluation of the pound, the Bank of England would be able to re-patriate those Euros at a MUCH improved exchange rate, which would soften the blow of Brexit - assuming again that “Sterling falls upon Brexit”.
My instincts tell me that whilst the financial markets will be very volatile - they’ll eventually settle down imo at a level not far away from current prices.
This applies to Sterling, FTSE, and the bond markets. All three of the important ones then. I don’t think anyone gives a toss about what happens to Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa somehow.
I’ve got money riding on “Turnout being over 80%” which as long as the ballot is free and fair - it should easily do. I’ve also got money at huge odds on “Remain get less than 40% of the poll” (40-1)
If Brexit manage to win - it will HAVE to be by a 60/40 margin or better I am thinking - and if Brexit gets over the 60% line easily - then I’m quids in on the bet on the converse as I have done it.
I predict that the markets will start making sharp moves for each minute that goes past midnight thereabouts - and there is no apparent “leading pattern” in the results that have come in by that point.
If it becomes evident early on that it is very “one sided” - then the markets will rally. If they keep running neck and neck until 5am… There will be HUGE swings on the overnight markets, which being electronic - are subject to flash crashes as well!
Here’s a couple of links if you fancy watching these markets yourself…
IG: Trade and Invest with the UK's No.1 Trading Provider - IG UK
IG index is actually market prices turned into betting odds - IG make their own price about the futures price during trading hours, and by themselves out of hours. You can buy the FTSE on this market when the FTSE itself is closed for example.
Мировые рынки: Курсы валют. Фондовые индексы. Товарные рынки. Котировки акций. Криптовалюты
The Russian site is a bootleg of actual live prices of many different markets - live and totally free.
Currencies and the American markets trade up until 10pm at night, close for one hour - then re-open at 23:00 hours.
Trading wise - buy low and sell high. If the price has already gone sky high, and you were looking to buy - don’t! - Look for the next upward spike to get SHORT this market. Traders don’t predict the long term direction - that’s for fund managers to do. They are only trying to find the high and low of today’s range, and trade within those boundaries. “Outside Days” present the opportunity to make the best profits - BUT also work against you if you get the market wrong. Traders also tend to “get in on the Rumour, get out when it’s confirmed as fact”. 
Winseer no offence, but you do not seem to understand what an economist is, or does. They are not concerned with the performance of the stock markets. Economists study of the entire economy. The performance of equities and derivatives (and even currencies) is a tiny concern compared to the economic growth of the country as a whole.
I urge you to look into this. Although you know a thing or two about investing, this is very different to economics. And those who are experts in economics are almost ALL in agreement about what will happen to this country in the event of a Brexit (spoiler alert: it is not good).
In other words, even if your investments / bets pay off, the net benefit of this will be overwhelmingly drowned by the negative effect on your income from an economy that is not growing as fast as it otherwise could be (or is in fact in recession). Even if your personal circumstances insulate you from these effects, the fact remains that this country will suffer enormously, and the poor and working class most of all.
It isn’t about who is betting on what. It is about the actual economy (business growth, business failures, wage levels, unemployment etc) and what is going to happen should we leave the EU. The experts are almost all saying the same thing: this is going to be very bad and we should avoid it.
