Is my UK covid logic flawed?

MPs and experts are telling us that what matters is hospital admissions and deaths not infection rates & R numbers

The current trends are hospital admissions falling and deaths now falling to a miniscule 7 day average of 6 per day and that is with infection rates/R number rising

The vaccine is doing its job

We are told that we will need to live with this virus in the short, medium and possible long term

Now to the bit where my logical mind is having an issue coming to terms with…
If the authorities are right then why are we testing and isolating for the virus if it makes no difference whether the infection rate rises or falls

Somebody put my brain into the right gear please

ROG:
MPs and experts are telling us that what matters is hospital admissions and deaths not infection rates & R numbers

The current trends are hospital admissions falling and deaths now falling to a miniscule 7 day average of 6 per day and that is with infection rates/R number rising

The vaccine is doing its job

We are told that we will need to live with this virus in the short, medium and possible long term

Now to the bit where my logical mind is having an issue coming to terms with…
If the authorities are right then why are we testing and isolating for the virus if it makes no difference whether the infection rate rises or falls

Somebody put my brain into the right gear please [emoji38]

Well… I’m with you on this Rog

However a good friend of mine reckons (and he has a PhD in chemistry and 40 years’ experience of developing medication - including vaccines) that they are worried the more it spreads the more opportunities for it to develop mutations that are capable of “bypassing” the vaccines. His view is that it’s extremely unlikely, given the success thus far, that any new strains would have this capability at this stage, or in the near to moderately distant future.

You also have to remember that it’s costing the government (us) a lot of money to have lockdowns and the like and they’re attempting to get it right… Oh the irony!

My view is, much like driving, if you’re over cautious and over think it, you’re likely to get it wrong. Scientists are programmed to work on the 99.9% likelihood of things. They don’t like 99.8% at all. I doubt you’ll ever hear a scientist every again say “there’s no risk to anyone from Covid.”

Common sense now needs to prevail. The mantra “Protect the NHS” is clearly not applicable. 1600 deaths a day on average in the UK and now the number “with Covid” is so small it’s not relevant any more.

The reality is that most folk (me included) are far more scared of not living than they are of dying. Existing is not an option in the medium term, let alone long term.

Without the vaccines 99.4% survive Covid.
So, for me, the scrapping of all restrictions is long overdue and should be brought forward.
If the success of them was reversed and they had been poor, the dates for opening up wod have instantly been extended. I see no reason to not adopt the opposite in the circumstances.

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My thinking is why test when if there is a mutation that gets past the vaccine because the first sign of that will be hospital admissions rising - testing will not give that prediction

Am I off track again?

ROG:
My thinking is why test when if there is a mutation that gets past the vaccine because the first sign of that will be hospital admissions rising - testing will not give that prediction

Am I off track again?

I don’t think so. My understanding is though that such an occurrence would show the problem up - but by then it will almost certainly be too late as such figures can lag significantly behind the actual picture, resulting in many deaths that the government just cannot afford to happen. If you look at the actual number of Covid deaths and compare them with those from cancer, you can see Covid deaths are just a tiny blip. In the last 100 days approximately 45 thousand have died as a direct result of cancer - not because it was one morbidity too many as is often the case with Covid.

There is also a lot of paranoia around. The medical profession have already a lot of egg on their faces over this and they are I think anxious to avoid further scrambling!

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ROG:
MPs and experts are telling us that what matters is hospital admissions and deaths not infection rates & R numbers

I havent heard that from anyone I trust. Maybe some MPs are saying that, and maybe they have their own reasons for saying so. Without hearing exactly the reasoning behind such a stand I wouldnt trust it.
Seems very clear to me that the R number is important.

Nothing wrong with your logic that I see Rog.

ROG:
My thinking is why test when if there is a mutation that gets past the vaccine because the first sign of that will be hospital admissions rising - testing will not give that prediction
Am I off track again?

Testing will show what new strains of the virus exist, and where they are. The time to have measures taken, is when a new strain is seen, not wait until it`s effects show up, days or weeks later.
Positive tests are analysed for strain type in labs. Sewerage is collected and tested in differing areas to look for amount of virus, and look for the spread of it by analysing the different strains found.

Merely looking at new strains can have predictions on whether they may be more resistant to vaccines.
The current vaccine and drug development and production techniques are far from the older way of doing things where a whole range of things were tried in a “■■■■ it and see” way.
Remember how we were told that the vaccines were attacking the spikes on the virus?
health.state.mn.us/diseases … e/mrna.pdf
If a COVID virus was found with a very different spike, it may seem more likely to escape the vaccine mighten it?
It is good to continue testing and looking at all the info available.
The more we know, the better decisions can be made.

Franglais:

ROG:
MPs and experts are telling us that what matters is hospital admissions and deaths not infection rates & R numbers

I havent heard that from anyone I trust. Maybe some MPs are saying that, and maybe they have their own reasons for saying so. Without hearing exactly the reasoning behind such a stand I wouldnt trust it.
Seems very clear to me that the R number is important.

Nothing wrong with your logic that I see Rog.

ROG:
My thinking is why test when if there is a mutation that gets past the vaccine because the first sign of that will be hospital admissions rising - testing will not give that prediction
Am I off track again?

Testing will show what new strains of the virus exist, and where they are. The time to have measures taken, is when a new strain is seen, not wait until it`s effects show up, days or weeks later.
Positive tests are analysed for strain type in labs. Sewerage is collected and tested in differing areas to look for amount of virus, and look for the spread of it by analysing the different strains found.

Merely looking at new strains can have predictions on whether they may be more resistant to vaccines.
The current vaccine and drug development and production techniques are far from the older way of doing things where a whole range of things were tried in a “■■■■ it and see” way.
Remember how we were told that the vaccines were attacking the spikes on the virus?
health.state.mn.us/diseases … e/mrna.pdf
If a COVID virus was found with a very different spike, it may seem more likely to escape the vaccine mighten it?
It is good to continue testing and looking at all the info available.
The more we know, the better decisions can be made.

Yes… That’s all true. I think the R number is less relevant now than it was however, as deaths just aren’t happening in the way they were.

But at some point, acceptance that we can’t necessarily cover all bases all the time must happen, as it has with flu/pneumonia and other illnesses such as cancer and diabetes.
The latter kills millions worldwide each year - so why isn’t that in the news continuously?

I guess the answer is that firstly, diabetes patients aren’t filling ICUs to breaking point showing how poor the NHS really is in terms of capacity. And secondly, such deaths are socially “acceptable” and that acceptance by the public means that politically, much less harm is done.

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Does anyone else think that the media is making more of this Indian variant that really needs to be

ROG:
Does anyone else think that the media is making more of this Indian variant that really needs to be

Without a doubt. They’re desperate for sensation. Fear sells news.

It’s ■■■■■■■■ tbh. India is struggling because they’ve hardly vaccinated a huge population that lives cheek by jowl, not because of the strain of the virus. Any strain would have caused a similar situation q

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Scary Headlines used to sell newsprint.
Now Scary Headlines gets clicks and gets money.
Some media outlets will certainly exaggerate to earn money. Doubtless.
Who is trustworthy? Good question, who knows?
.
I go more with the BBC firstly, and the “broadsheets”, whether they have left or right leanings.
The Mail, Express, Sun, etc are not very accurate or reliable IMHO.

I think this 4 day old link is valid. The “Indian variant” seems to be genuinely worrying, no need for panic, but caution might be the best option.
bbc.com/news/health-57150871
But as testing goes on, we can see whether results follow the models and projections, so plans can be updated and altered if necessary.

Truckulent:

ROG:
Does anyone else think that the media is making more of this Indian variant that really needs to be

Without a doubt. They’re desperate for sensation. Fear sells news.

It’s ■■■■■■■■ tbh. India is struggling because they’ve hardly vaccinated a huge population that lives cheek by jowl, not because of the strain of the virus. Any strain would have caused a similar situation q

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India is suffering because of cramped living conditions, poverty and need to work instead of isolate etc. Worse health facilities etc. All true. No argument.

But the strain now in the UK called the Indian strain seems to be more contagious than the original covid.
assets.publishing.service.gov.u … tement.pdf

Franglais:
Scary Headlines used to sell newsprint.
Now Scary Headlines gets clicks and gets money.
Some media outlets will certainly exaggerate to earn money. Doubtless.
Who is trustworthy? Good question, who knows?
.
I go more with the BBC firstly, and the “broadsheets”, whether they have left or right leanings.
The Mail, Express, Sun, etc are not very accurate or reliable IMHO.

I think this 4 day old link is valid. The “Indian variant” seems to be genuinely worrying, no need for panic, but caution might be the best option.
bbc.com/news/health-57150871
But as testing goes on, we can see whether results follow the models and projections, so plans can be updated and altered if necessary.

I used to have a lot of respect for the BBC.

Now, I wouldn’t trust anything they say as far as I can throw my 55" TV.

They report what they’re told to report IMO.

The “Indian” variant is just another variation. Think back to when the “Brazilian” and " Kent" variant was new. Exactly the same things were reported - super dangerous and transmissable and the vaccines might not work blah, blah.

As you say… Scary headlines make big money.

Maybe they should publish similar headlines into the chances of contracting and dying from cancer. Currently the chances of that happening are far more likely than dying of any strain of Covid

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Franglais:

Truckulent:

ROG:
Does anyone else think that the media is making more of this Indian variant that really needs to be

Without a doubt. They’re desperate for sensation. Fear sells news.

It’s ■■■■■■■■ tbh. India is struggling because they’ve hardly vaccinated a huge population that lives cheek by jowl, not because of the strain of the virus. Any strain would have caused a similar situation q

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India is suffering because of cramped living conditions, poverty and need to work instead of isolate etc. Worse health facilities etc. All true. No argument.

But the strain now in the UK called the Indian strain seems to be more contagious than the original covid.
assets.publishing.service.gov.u … tement.pdf

Hmmm.

The cynic in me says that currently the government wants everyone rombe really cautious, hence such articles. If what they said was " well this Indian strain is almost certainly nothing to worry about so crack on" it would likely be nearer the truth but wouldnt encourage caution - quite the reverse.

I think caution will be the buzz word over Covid. The trouble is, Cry Wolf can be pretty dangerous in such a situation.

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I think that “they” may have pushed operation fear a tad too far with the reporting of a new Yorkshire variant! I thought it was an April fool joke when I heard it, but oh no, the good old Beeb are reporting it as if it’s spawned from Beelzebub himself.

Severe danger of fear overload coming methinks.

Yes.The Yorkshire variant was reported last night on the news.I just groaned and FFS.

Gidders:
Yes.The Yorkshire variant was reported last night on the news.I just groaned and FFS.

Exactly^^

It’s a load of ■■■■■■■■. It’s all Coronavirus. It’s base has been around forever and has mutated forever. The vaccines will work where it matters - that has already been established.

“They” just don’t want to let it go - control is addictive.

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Truckulent:
It’s a load of ■■■■■■■■. It’s all Coronavirus. It’s base has been around forever and has mutated forever. The vaccines will work where it matters - that has already been established.

“They” just don’t want to let it go - control is addictive.

That’s because ‘‘they’’ know it ain’t a natural ‘Corona’ virus which was ever meant to transmit to humans naturally and it ain’t a ‘vaccine’.
It’s a chimera and it’s an experimental gene therapy anti dote which probably won’t work.
There’s probably more chance that that the wrong type of response to the ‘vaccine’ ( gene therapy ) created Covid Spike Protein would kill sooner or later just the same as the ‘wrong’ type of response to the same Spike Protein that’s been artificially attached to the bat ‘virus’ would.

So here we are the ‘vaccine’ will set you free ( oh we were lying ).The truth is ‘‘they’’ are zb scared of public panic if the public realised the truth.

Or the whole thing is bs ‘‘they’’ are just doing what the Commies are telling them to do because the elites prefer sell out to war.In which case it’s all there in agenda 30.
Or it’s possibly a combination of both.

the maoster:
I think that “they” may have pushed operation fear a tad too far with the reporting of a new Yorkshire variant! I thought it was an April fool joke when I heard it, but oh no, the good old Beeb are reporting it as if it’s spawned from Beelzebub himself.

Severe danger of fear overload coming methinks.

Yeah, severely OTT language from the Beeb:
"PHE said there was “currently no evidence that this variant causes more severe disease or renders the vaccines currently deployed any less effective” and “Don`t be alarmed”

If anyone is making a mountain out of a molehill it is you

Or would it be better if it wasnt spoken of at all? So others can claim "Its a cover-up" etc?

bbc.com/news/uk-england-57199475

Yeah I think we get it by now Franglais, we get that you thrive on constantly providing the opposite view on, well, everything actually. You probably tell yourself that it’s in the interest of balance that you do this. It isn’t, it’s just tedious actually and it speaks volumes about you as a person.

bbc.com/news/uk-57214596
Current vaccines highly effective, after two doses, against India variant.

Franglais:
Covid: Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs work against Indian variant - study
Current vaccines highly effective, after two doses, against India variant.

Funny that. A few hours earlier the British ■■■■■■■■ Corporation were hinting the opposite.

As I’ve already said, anyone with any basic knowledge of how a virus works will confidently predict that ALL variants for a considerable time will be quashed by the vaccine. “New” strains are being mentioned that “may evade the vaccines” to keep the fear and control going.

Chris Whitty doesn’t want to stop running the country- he’s having too much fun, the sad little ■■■■■■!

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