It all boils down to ādelivering on their own promisesā.
Corbyn would win - IF he comes up with a way of raising cash for his popular āuniversal incomeā policy. However, at present it involves raising base income tax by at least 9%. That, in turn - is usually electoral suicide at the polls. If Corby suddenly came out for āgetting his hands on the Brexit dividendā - by going into a coalition with Farage - then he could be PM by Christmas, despite not winning a majority. Farage - has already said he ādoesnāt want to be in governmentā and only expects a coalition agreement to include a commitment to an IMMEDIATE No Deal Brexit. That would actually serve Corbyn very nicely indeed: He would be able to embark on his re-nationalization programme straight away, rather than wait for pie-in-the-sky Brexit that might yet never happen under any government āwithout Farage in a coalitionā to force it.
Boris would win - if he steals Farageās fire by promising a no deal Brexit, which of course raises the Brexit dividend immediately, since what you donāt pay over - is straight in the countryās coffers.
Boris has already got a (poor) deal however, so Iād actually rather not see Boris go on to win a majority now. Iād say from my hardline Brext point of view - that it is actually essential that Boris loses net seats alongside Corbyn - if weāre to ever get a profitable Brexit done!
Swinson? I canāt see Remainers switching to Libdem - in case it lets Corbyn/Boris in. Which seats would they be targeting in any caseā ā ? They would presumably have to be Brexiteer MPs in strongly Remain-voting seatsā¦ Not too many of those about though!
The SNP are already past their sell-by date. They are pushing for TWO 2nd referendums - both of which theyāve already lost, leaving the UK and Preventing the UK from leaving the EU.
Time for them to be put out to pasture, I reckon. The seats that used to be SNP held - will divide up as around 10 seats for Libdem, Tory, and Labour respectively, with the last few going to Brexit Party in a surprise ambush of a three-way split Remain vote! (Eg. Libdem 7500, Labour 8000, Tory 8500, Brexit Party 9000, SNP 2500)
The Greens - might lose Brighton to a resurgent Labour vote.
The seats in play most of all - will be those that used to belong to āstanding down MPsā.
There are now three kinds of Brexit in play: Remain, Stealth Remain, and WTO Brexit.
If Boris wins a majority - his 100 or so Remainer MPs will forbid him to do a No Deal, and the ERG will suddenly turn against Borisā deal, as that was just grandstanding when they voted for it beforehand. There wonāt be any support for any kind of Brexit outside of the ruling party by this point - so the deadlock would continue, all because the only thing Parliament are united upon - is keeping Brexit Party OUT of Westminster.
If Farage wins seats - it would need to be enough to make them a viable coalition partner WITHOUT any third party involvement. Iād suggest at least as many seats as Cleggy had in 2010 when he found himself going into coalition with the wrong party at that point - because Gordon Brown lost too many seats, with Cleggy not having enough to get Brown over the line without a ārainbowā involvement at that time.
So it comes down to (1) How much you want/are scared of Corbyn (2) How much you want a Brexit that fully funds public services, and finally ends austerity (3) How much time youāve got to live, and just want politics to become unintense again, so you can get on with your life of moaning about things āNot changingā.
I for one, am no longer scared of Corbyn, so I donāt care if he gets in when I vote Farage.
The only Brexit worth having - is a āclean breakā one, which Farage is on his own in offering.
I voted Brexit in the first place - to end austerity. I was a libdem voter before Brexit. Iām homeless these days, but Iāll worry about where my future votes go - once Brexit is done.
The worst result in this upcoming election imo - is one where ALL westminster parties lose seats - but Brexit Party "doesnāt win enough to put anyone into power āby themselvesā. I.e. a "non-kingmaker Brexit party in a VERY hung parliament.
With a bit of luck the SNP, Greens, and Libdems - will do so badly as to give a small boost to all parties - but not enough to get them over the line. Enter at that point Brexit Party who only need win the ānumber of seats to make up the differenceā.
The PEOPLE meanwhile - can be considered to be the ābig winnersā in Election 2019 - IF they turn over as many incumbent MPs as possible. ALL parties, āNo Quarter Expected nor givenā basisā¦
The more that get turfed out - the better for everyone! We have a real opportunity to reform the WHOLE of Westminster hereā¦
Iāll be voting against my local MP. Perhaps others will consider doing the same, even if they supported that same MP in the past, as I did.
The lists above - show a LOT of āvulnerable seatsā, some of which the MP (over 50 already!) have decided to jump before they get pushed, and resign ahead of the election.
This will be an Iphone election with ātactical votingā done on a scale yet to be seen, even as recently as 2017ā¦