newmercman:
Rjan:
…
First of all, as you quoted me, I will address your comment about specialist engines. It’s pretty simple, there are none, you cannot get a specialist engine for heavy haul work, you can tailor the gearing to suit, but that’s it and in my particular case I have to compromise here as my work is all on highway at regular highway speeds and unless I start adding auxiliary transmissions, I have to make do with normal gearing.
Agreed. By using what is effectively an under-specified engine (and vehicle) for the workload, I can see that it perhaps becomes economical (against the fuel cost) to take special care of the engine, because otherwise it may be knackered long before proper time.
Now to the most cost effective way of running a lorry in today’s world. Unless you run into an LEZ, there is no reason to prevent anybody running an older lorry, I don’t, so that allows me a greater choice.
That is a key point too, that if every haulier was trying to keep their engines going 30 years, there would be even more political intervention to penalise them for using old, dirty, engines which everybody’s lungs have to pay for. Whereas at the moment, the government can leave the question alone, and let older vehicles retire naturally or be sold on to the third world.
Large companies may well perform dynamical economic analyses like that, which accounts for the political risk of their policies - so if the big hauliers (who have a high volume of vehicles between them) suddenly decide to keep their vehicles going for 30 years and instruct their drivers systematically to idle the engines up to operating temperature, they have to account for the fact that there may eventually be intervention which will penalise them for having embarked on such a course against the common interest, which isn’t a risk if only a small number of specialist hauliers are embarking on that course.
Lorry number one.
A new current model. Cost new including warranty $180,000. 6mpg, maintenance costs including tyres over the past three years 500,000miles have been as follows.
New turbo $6,000
New cylinder head $16,000
Starter motor $700
New heater matrix $800
New expansion tank $600
Various emission sensors $4,000
DPF clean $1,500
New batteries $600
Servicing and chassis lube $8,000
Tyres, 6 steers and 8 drives $8,000
Residual value of the lorry today is $50,000
Approximate cost $176200. Roughly $0.35 per mile.
Now an older lorry, without all the emission crap and components that are built to last for three to five years and that last part is very important as that is how lorries are built these days. In my case I bought a brand new older lorry and for the purposes of this exercise I will use the data from my uncle’s lorry as it’s basically the same as what I have now, but an original version. I will use the price I paid and the used value of his.
Lorry number two.
Cost $240,000. 6mpg. Maintenance costs over 1,400,000miles as follows.
Servicing and chassis lube $35,000
Tyres 12 steers 16 drives $16,000
Miscellaneous parts $20,000
Residual value $70,000
Approximately $0.17cpm
Can of worms indeed.
I’m not a vehicle trader, but I struggle to understand how an older lorry with 3 times as many miles as a newer one, has a residual today which is $20k (are you working in dollars?) higher than the newer lorry - unless it’s worth that in some sort of special low-volume market, where high prices are precisely a function of their rarity (i.e. the fact that most people are not molly-coddling their vehicles and keeping them going for decades). If the big boys were all keeping their vehicles going longer, the bottom would drop out of this market, because there would be a greater abundance of old vehicles around, and the newer vehicles would have higher residuals due to rarity (and correspondingly, the lower residual of the newer vehicle today, is probably because there are more of them on the market due to the 3-year replacement policies of major users).
And any way you cut it, the new lorry has had costs, but added together those costs have not even reached the brand new cost of the older lorry in cash terms (and that’s without an adjustment for inflation, which would make the original purchase price of a $240k vehicle ten years ago cost about $318k today, against the cost of a new vehicle which you quote as $180k).
And, I would seriously like to think that the costs you’ve faced so far, for new cylinder heads and turbos, won’t be experienced again twice more before you get to 1.5million miles. So your overall costs of running (per mile driven) may drop as the new vehicle does more miles - we’ll only be able to tell for sure in the future.
Also, you’re factoring in costs on which pre-heating the engine probably has no bearing at all, or the cost of maintaining emissions equipment that doesn’t even exist on the older vehicle (and again, is probably not affected beneficially by idling up to temperature). The newer vehicle might be using tyres, batteries, and starter motors at a higher rate, but so perhaps would any vehicle of that model, whether it was idled up to operating temperature or not. We’re talking about the economic sense of idling - not about the economics of a throwaway engineering vs durable engineering.
Add $10,000 for idle fuel to warm up the older lorry and that changes to $0.18cpm if you round the numbers up to the third decimal. Now let’s say that the older lorry has been a bit of a dog and needed $20,000 of parts and repairs each year, it still comes out at $0.25cpm.
So it isn’t more economical to run a 3yr replacement cycle, no way, numbers do not lie, the reason the big boys do it is not because of factors that will be experienced by owner drivers or small fleets, but because they need drivers and drivers want new lorries these days, they also get lease deals that you and I can only dream about, so just because it works for Maritime, Stobart, Wincanton, XPO etc, that doesn’t mean it will work for you and me.
Drivers want new lorries because they’re generally better and more comfortable. Some old pre-war Rolls Royce may go forever, but by god I wouldn’t want to be using 12 hours a day in stop-go traffic. Not just because I like creature comfort, but because my arms and knees, and even my hearing, would be knackered before time. And if everyone was doing it, London and the other major cities would be back to having smog like pea-soup, and we’d all be keeling over with cancers and other lung problems. The gap in the market for the small haulier running old vehicles, if indeed the gap exists, exists precisely because the major players are not following the same calculations - because if they were, new rules would be introduced which would change the calculation.
And because of that, I will carry on idling my engine up to temperature before I set off up the road and the $0.10cpm will stay in my pocket.
But even you can see that your gains are, apparently, only because the newer lorry has inferior build quality overall - perhaps not in relation to general use (I can’t believe that most new vehicles, no matter how little cared for by their drivers, are having their cylinder heads replaced every 500k miles), but in your particular strenuous use. A newer vehicle with an easier life so far, may have matched (or exceeded) the repair costs of an old vehicle which had also had an easy life.
And like I say, putting aside the consequential losses of poor reliability (less of a concern for companies that run larger fleets, with slack to account for any particular vehicle spending an odd couple of days off the road during repairs), the old vehicle cost around 75% more to buy in real terms as the new vehicle!