Carryfast:
We need a decent interest rate rise sooner rather than later.As it stands investors are being mugged to subsidise low wage employment.Maybe the banks are suddenly realising the catch 22 that the same amount of capital can’t be used to supply both its owners having to raid it to make up for the money lost in the non existent interest at the same time as borrowers and their employers are using it as a type of income support benefit.IE what happens when all the capital inevitably runs out.
On that note it’s my guess we’re in a stand off between the banks needing to raise interest rates significantly and the employers saying that they won’t pay the wages to cover it.In which case jittery unstable stock markets are only a small symptom of the under lying erosion in the foundations of the economy.
Those foundations at present just being based on the banks playing for time regarding effectively zero returns on Capital and investors therefore spending the Capital and the banks then printing money to replace the shortfall.
If there’s too much money seeking a good return and it’s not being loaned out - the interest rate stays low.
People who DO borrow are either constantly on the search for a lower rate, or they borrow with no intention of paying it back. Raising interest rates in this environment merely discourages the former, whilst proliferating the latter.
Rates stay low as a symptom of too many banks still being “dangerously ill” thanks to the fractional reserve banking system that needed serious reform - but in the end barely got tinkered with.
So I’m guessing now would be a good time to invest in something like an S&P500 account? Thinking of a minimum investment term of 15yrs with monthly contributions.
The longer the better.
It’s all about “time in the market” not “timing the market”
also…by paying in monthly you benefit the dips,by picking up cheap stock.
That was my thoughts, I know to hit it hard in the early days so the compounding starts building up quicker, with the associated long term gains. I’ve been looking into it and historically they’ve been performing at 10 to 12% annually. I’m wondering whether to throw everything in one of those or spread it around in other markets. Europe worries me, as does the fragile Asian market, but again these have been in that 10% range over the last couple of decades.
Another thing that concerns me is the Presidential election, a Republican win would be better for the market, but I don’t have the experience, nor the money of Warren Buffet, so do I start now, or wait until the new bloke is in the hot seat?
I stick to the steady eddies,which will give you some global exposure,as companys like unilever etc sell lots of stuff abroad anyway.
I would have thought the outcome of a presidential election would only have a short term effect.
Eg.when dave got reelected…i experienced a nice little boost.
Carryfast:
We need a decent interest rate rise sooner rather than later.As it stands investors are being mugged to subsidise low wage employment.Maybe the banks are suddenly realising the catch 22 that the same amount of capital can’t be used to supply both its owners having to raid it to make up for the money lost in the non existent interest at the same time as borrowers and their employers are using it as a type of income support benefit.IE what happens when all the capital inevitably runs out.
On that note it’s my guess we’re in a stand off between the banks needing to raise interest rates significantly and the employers saying that they won’t pay the wages to cover it.In which case jittery unstable stock markets are only a small symptom of the under lying erosion in the foundations of the economy.
Those foundations at present just being based on the banks playing for time regarding effectively zero returns on Capital and investors therefore spending the Capital and the banks then printing money to replace the shortfall.
If there’s too much money seeking a good return and it’s not being loaned out - the interest rate stays low.
People who DO borrow are either constantly on the search for a lower rate, or they borrow with no intention of paying it back. Raising interest rates in this environment merely discourages the former, whilst proliferating the latter.
There’s no way that the difference between prices v incomes in general terms,especially house prices,could be bridged without massive levels of borrowing.While your theory seems to miss the point that no one with any sense is going to put capital into anything that they haven’t got equal access to as the borrower.In which case assuming the borrower defaults or doesn’t pay a reasonable return ,while at the same time the investors withdraw their capital,as I said, that just leaves the option of printing money to replace the shortfall.Which is more or less where we are now.IE the downward fluctuations in share values are actually just a reflection of the predictable falling value of and resulting loss of confidence in the value of the currency that their values are based on in a QE environment.
IE ultimately shares are just another form of capital holding directly based on and linked to their cash value.If the values of and returns on cash capital are falling in real terms then shares can only go the same way being that there is no realistic way of seperating the values of both.With as usual cash being king and there’s no way that shares can ever outperform cash.At least unless the figures are all rigged such as in the form of dodgy inflation figures and ‘QE’ adding to the money supply.Which in this case obviously means jittery volatile stock markets.Which at the end of the day know that there is no way that shares,being based on the monetary capital value of companies,can ever be valued at more than than that QE corrupted monetary value and therefore subject to unpredictable but inevitable ‘corrective’ action that reflects that real terms cash value at any time .
Winseer actually seems to know his stuff re finance and investments. CF thinks he knows his stuff regarding submarines, bridges, American lorries, the war, all of the wars, googling, investments, planes, history and the whole world. Yeah this should be good. Lots of “question remains”, “feel free”, “ironically”
James the cat:
Winseer actually seems to know his stuff re finance and investments. CF thinks he knows his stuff regarding submarines, bridges, American lorries, the war, all of the wars, googling, investments, planes, history and the whole world. Yeah this should be good. Lots of “question remains”, “feel free”, “ironically”
Admittedly I’m no expert.But when the bankers say that the monetary value of a company expressed as capital is only worth around less than 1% return.But if that value is called ‘shares’ then it’s supposedly worth a lot more I just know it’s a scam.On that note I won’t be putting a load of cash into a ‘high return’ long term locked in investment plan.
newmercman:
That was my thoughts, I know to hit it hard in the early days so the compounding starts building up quicker, with the associated long term gains. I’ve been looking into it and historically they’ve been performing at 10 to 12% annually. I’m wondering whether to throw everything in one of those or spread it around in other markets. Europe worries me, as does the fragile Asian market, but again these have been in that 10% range over the last couple of decades.
Another thing that concerns me is the Presidential election, a Republican win would be better for the market, but I don’t have the experience, nor the money of Warren Buffet, so do I start now, or wait until the new bloke is in the hot seat?
Have a look at Hargreaves lands down mark not sure if you can invest with them where you are but I’m sure there’s equivalent I’ve been putting some money my mum left with them and it’s doing ok but realy is a minimum 5 year investment ideal 10 to 15 years though
newmercman:
So I’m guessing now would be a good time to invest in something like an S&P500 account? Thinking of a minimum investment term of 15yrs with monthly contributions.
You might want to google Neil Woodford, I call him Goldfinger , he’s made me a lot of money over the years. His new fund increased by 17.9% in the past year.
I looked at a few fund managers, but there didn’t appear to be much consistency, one year they’re up and the next they’re down. This is why I’m thinking of the S&P etc, lots of tiny eggs in lots of baskets should mean a decent amount will hatch…
newmercman:
I looked at a few fund managers, but there didn’t appear to be much consistency, one year they’re up and the next they’re down. This is why I’m thinking of the S&P etc, lots of tiny eggs in lots of baskets should mean a decent amount will hatch…
I see what you mean. I looked at a great many funds years ago and this Woodford guy kept coming out on top, they say £10k invested with him in 1988 would be worth £309k today so I’ve always stuck with him over the years and he’s made me enough for a very comfy retirement. Mind you I lost a lot at the start of this week which was rather frightening although I’ve made most of it back by today.
I will put mine in and try not to look at it too often, I reckon it will drive me mad if I do.
I’m looking to create a decent retirement fund, so I have the time for a good return and I’m going to pay the tax on what I put in, rather than what I take out at the end, if at all possible so I can pay the taxman as little as I can get away with.
+2 for Neil Woodford.
Spread your investments about the world by TAX EFFICIENT means.
Remember theres no such thing as Xmas in Far East/Japan etc,
while your sleeping off the turkey somebody in an office in those countries is trying HARD to make you money!!!
LIBERTY_GUY:
If China goes into decline, then there will be less containers to pick up from the docks and Poundland and Wilko’s shelves will be looking a bit empty, but am sure life will still go on. One could suggest that some of the stuff coming from China is so ridiculously cheap, it makes you wonder how they manage to produce it for that money in the first place, reduced wage rates or not.
Bought a pair of Multi-meter leads from Amazon, they were sent airmail from China and cost me £1.01 including postage.
Laser pointed thermometer, digital readout, reads temperatures from 30 foot away… £13.75 inc postage = spot on accuracy too. My bluetooth earpiece, well made and crystal clear… just £6.75 inc postage. Just don’t know how they even make a profit?
