All this is like trying to pick the winner of the grand national… Blinding you with the form, the stats, the distance travelled to the racecourse…
What good did all those “Stats” do anyone?
NO “Odds On Favourite” has EVER won the Grand National. (Shortest priced winner was Poethlyn who won at odds of 11/4 (against) in… Flu Epidemic Year 1919… Odd Coincidence, but apt for this analogy…
If there was no odds-on favourite, then there simply was never any majority that thought this particular horse was going to win.
Being “Odds-On” - means automatically that in excess of 50% of the entire book - is bet upon that one horse… There of course can only be a single odds-on favourite in a race, or bookmakers would be seen as total crooks, which they HAVE been from time to time around the world, of course…
I know very little about horse racing, bit a couple of points seem quite clear.
An odds-on runner is going to appear in a two horse race, but will be rarer as the number of runners increases, do that there won’t be any in a race with a big field such as the Grand National.
.
The odds are set by bookies. They are not set to reflect accurately the chance of any horse winning. They are skewed to allow a profit for the bookie.
Nothing wrong with betting for profit, so long as you have the statistics and get to set the odds, not accept the odds made by others.
.
.
.edit to answer the question,
The stats do the bookies a hell of a lot of good.
manalishi:
They’re behind everything Winseer,banking,pharma,‘politics’.They’ve always played both sides of the street for aeons.We can never have a decent and just planet while these demonics run the show.
I’m grateful we have a robust polymath such as Winseer for the intellectual/technical-‘heavy-lifting’ elements on this forum.When this level of perception meets full-Illumination across the board in current affairs,do we start to emerge from this heathen-slurry,matrix of suppression we have suffered under for eternity.
manalishi:
I’m grateful we have a robust polymath such as Winseer for the intellectual/technical-‘heavy-lifting’ elements on this forum.When this level of perception meets full-Illumination across the board in current affairs,do we start to emerge from this heathen-slurry,matrix of suppression we have suffered under for eternity.
Well I have it on good authority Winseer is actually Evelyn de Rothschild, Carryfast his brother Jacob
manalishi:
Statistics ffs,i may have said it before…‘‘Like bikinis…What they reveal is suggestive…what they conceal is vital’’.(Aaron Levenstein).
Statistics are like words, they are inert.
They can be used for good or bad. The closer you examine them, the more is revealed. (Just like bikinis then)
If you are mislead it is those using or abusing them who are to blame.
If you are lied to with words, isn`t that the same as being lied to with numbers?
manalishi:
Statistics ffs,i may have said it before…‘‘Like bikinis…What they reveal is suggestive…what they conceal is vital’’.(Aaron Levenstein).
Statistics are like words, they are inert.
They can be used for good or bad. The closer you examine them, the more is revealed. (Just like bikinis then)
If you are mislead it is those using or abusing them who are to blame.
If you are lied to with words, isn`t that the same as being lied to with numbers?
A crisp quote or pungent axiom,i find tends to crystallise the narrative more than any forensic,verbiage or elegantly, parsed,expostulations that are a feature of your posts on an increasing basis these days old fruit.Where you’re direction of travel is heading is to a mass (vaccine)- DNA-reset and nothing less.
manalishi:
Statistics ffs,i may have said it before…‘‘Like bikinis…What they reveal is suggestive…what they conceal is vital’’.(Aaron Levenstein).
Statistics are like words, they are inert.
They can be used for good or bad. The closer you examine them, the more is revealed. (Just like bikinis then)
If you are mislead it is those using or abusing them who are to blame.
If you are lied to with words, isn`t that the same as being lied to with numbers?
A crisp quote or pungent axiom,i find tends to crystallise the narrative more than any forensic,verbiage or elegantly, parsed,expostulations that are a feature of your posts on an increasing basis these days old fruit.Where you’re direction of travel is heading is to a mass (vaccine)- DNA-reset and nothing less.
manalishi:
Statistics ffs,i may have said it before…‘‘Like bikinis…What they reveal is suggestive…what they conceal is vital’’.(Aaron Levenstein).
Statistics are like words, they are inert.
They can be used for good or bad. The closer you examine them, the more is revealed. (Just like bikinis then)
If you are mislead it is those using or abusing them who are to blame.
If you are lied to with words, isn`t that the same as being lied to with numbers?
A crisp quote or pungent axiom,i find tends to crystallise the narrative more than any forensic,verbiage or elegantly, parsed,expostulations that are a feature of your posts on an increasing basis these days old fruit.Where you’re direction of travel is heading is to a mass (vaccine)- DNA-reset and nothing less.
Sorry but this is inadvertently hilarious
soz old chap,i’ve been re-visiting my old Viz-comic idol-Mr-Logic fom the web archives,seem to be channeling the bugger
manalishi:
Statistics ffs,i may have said it before…‘‘Like bikinis…What they reveal is suggestive…what they conceal is vital’’.(Aaron Levenstein).
Statistics are like words, they are inert.
They can be used for good or bad. The closer you examine them, the more is revealed. (Just like bikinis then)
If you are mislead it is those using or abusing them who are to blame.
If you are lied to with words, isn`t that the same as being lied to with numbers?
A crisp quote or pungent axiom,i find tends to crystallise the narrative more than any forensic,verbiage or elegantly, parsed,expostulations that are a feature of your posts on an increasing basis these days old fruit.Where you’re direction of travel is heading is to a mass (vaccine)- DNA-reset and nothing less.
The trouble being of course, that attention grabbing speeches are not always honest and truthful.
.
Many adults complain about the attention span if their kids, but then…ahh, I can`t be ars…
All this is like trying to pick the winner of the grand national… Blinding you with the form, the stats, the distance travelled to the racecourse…
What good did all those “Stats” do anyone?
NO “Odds On Favourite” has EVER won the Grand National. (Shortest priced winner was Poethlyn who won at odds of 11/4 (against) in… Flu Epidemic Year 1919… Odd Coincidence, but apt for this analogy…
If there was no odds-on favourite, then there simply was never any majority that thought this particular horse was going to win.
Being “Odds-On” - means automatically that in excess of 50% of the entire book - is bet upon that one horse… There of course can only be a single odds-on favourite in a race, or bookmakers would be seen as total crooks, which they HAVE been from time to time around the world, of course…
I know very little about horse racing, bit a couple of points seem quite clear.
An odds-on runner is going to appear in a two horse race, but will be rarer as the number of runners increases, do that there won’t be any in a race with a big field such as the Grand National. Absolutely Correct.
.
The odds are set by bookies. They are not set to reflect accurately the chance of any horse winning. They are skewed to allow a profit for the bookie. Not quite, Anyone offering a “Lay” position at Betfair or any other “exchange” these days - can set the odds, that sometimes guarantee a loss for them dishing out such over-generous odds.
Even the Tote betting system - can be rather lucrative to Ladies in particular, who will bet a horse “because they like the name” rather than because it’s form says it cannot win… It is quite common to see a horse priced at 10-1 and upwards - pay significantly higher on the tote - especially in big field races, where it is harder to find a winner in the first place.
Nothing wrong with betting for profit, so long as you have the statistics and get to set the odds, not accept the odds made by others.
Most professional gamblers are either bookmakers already (they specialize in laying “Bismarck” horses, short-priced favorites expected to tank…) OR actual well-heeled punters who don’t need that many winners to come out ahead - because they systemically avoid backing the shortest THREE horses in every race… A quick look at this racing result from Ireland yesteday Full Result | 14:15 Tom McCormack Memorial Cup Mares Maiden Hurdle | Kilbeggan (IRE) | Sky Sports Horse Racing illustrates both what happens when someone is brave or daft enough to back a horse called Grannie Lowrie, even more so if they backed it on the tote, which returned half as much again as even this decent double-carpet winner…
.
.
.edit to answer the question,
The stats do the bookies a hell of a lot of good.
Agree.
“A little bit of knowledge - is a dangerous thing”. Observations of other punters - tells you which horses to avoid, rather than “how to pick the winner”. STOP chasing hard-to-pick winners, and just bet small for a bit of fun, chucking an accumulator small bet (pennies) in case you luck up, and get three winners on the spin - which has dished up five figures for me twice in the past 20 years. Not enough to come out ahead overall, but a nice little windfall not very unlike paying thousands in taxes per year, and occasionally being paid back thousands by way of a rebate…
manalishi:
They’re behind everything Winseer,banking,pharma,‘politics’.They’ve always played both sides of the street for aeons.We can never have a decent and just planet while these demonics run the show.
They’re behind Winseer?!
Yeh, I missed that one there. Either the above is a typo, or I got googled with “winseer” being the typo there…
manalishi:
Statistics ffs,i may have said it before…‘‘Like bikinis…What they reveal is suggestive…what they conceal is vital’’.(Aaron Levenstein).
Statistics are like words, they are inert.
They can be used for good or bad. The closer you examine them, the more is revealed. (Just like bikinis then)
If you are mislead it is those using or abusing them who are to blame.
If you are lied to with words, isn`t that the same as being lied to with numbers?
A crisp quote or pungent axiom,i find tends to crystallise the narrative more than any forensic,verbiage or elegantly, parsed,expostulations that are a feature of your posts on an increasing basis these days old fruit.Where you’re direction of travel is heading is to a mass (vaccine)- DNA-reset and nothing less.
The trouble being of course, that attention grabbing speeches are not always honest and truthful.
.
Many adults complain about the attention span if their kids, but then…ahh, I can`t be ars…
manalishi:
I’m grateful we have a robust polymath such as Winseer for the intellectual/technical-‘heavy-lifting’ elements on this forum.When this level of perception meets full-Illumination across the board in current affairs,do we start to emerge from this heathen-slurry,matrix of suppression we have suffered under for eternity.
Well I have it on good authority Winseer is actually Evelyn de Rothschild, Carryfast his brother Jacob
Yeh, I’m the secret love child of an errant banker, but got busted out of public school for turning against the banks, and therefore my own family. I’ve been an impoverished far-left-on-finance - ever since.
I even understood a way of getting “Corbynomics” to work FFS, but no one was listening. A missed opportunity for the Labour Party, with Momentum throwing out the baby with the bathwater for actually having members who were threatening me for voting UKIP in 2015…
…Found myself agreeing with practically everything in this video…
Anyone else out there think the same?
On the subject of “next week”, I’ll just say that I’m a bit nervous about the kids actually going back to school now.
If there are pockets of “resistance” to the end of Furlough, as there seems to be already - then what happens when Parents can’t go back to THEIR jobs ’ cos they don’t earn enough to pay a nanny to look after their still-off-school kids?
On the subject of “next week”, I’ll just say that I’m a bit nervous about the kids actually going back to school now.
If there are pockets of “resistance” to the end of Furlough, as there seems to be already - then what happens when Parents can’t go back to THEIR jobs ’ cos they don’t earn enough to pay a nanny to look after their still-off-school kids?
The kids in Scotland have been back for 2 weeks now.
Here’s a pic of a friends kid’s first day they sent me, virus prepared.
Winseer:
If there are pockets of “resistance” to the end of Furlough, as there seems to be already - then what happens when Parents can’t go back to THEIR jobs ’ cos they don’t earn enough to pay a nanny to look after their still-off-school kids?
Im more interested to know how many parents who are showing resistance are also the ones who took their kids to the beach, went to mcdonalds, went to the shops, went to the pubs and booked holidays 10 seconds after lockdown was lifted.
From what I can see, the resistance to schools reopening and going back to the office is more laziness and convenience and wanting to keep the furlough scheme going
Winseer:
If there are pockets of “resistance” to the end of Furlough, as there seems to be already - then what happens when Parents can’t go back to THEIR jobs ’ cos they don’t earn enough to pay a nanny to look after their still-off-school kids?
Im more interested to know how many parents who are showing resistance are also the ones who took their kids to the beach, went to mcdonalds, went to the shops, went to the pubs and booked holidays 10 seconds after lockdown was lifted.
From what I can see, the resistance to schools reopening and going back to the office is more laziness and convenience and wanting to keep the furlough scheme going
…I’m inclined to agree with you there - but look closer… I’m seeing the ones trying to skive off work/school for the longest time - were also the “wear a mask - or else” warrior queens and keengs out there as well.
Everyone out and about totally unnecessarily, seems to be neither buying food, taking someone else somewhere, driving a low-emission vehicle, AND not wearing a mask.
They don’t have a leg to stand on IF that group now hold back from sending their kids in come September eh?
…I would imagine that Boy Racer doesn’t have any kids, and just likes to take a spin out in their BMW fors hits and giggles anyways?
THEY are not going to be the Leftie Parents/Teachers trying to prolong furlough, I would have thought.
Traffic levels now - seem as bad at weekends as they are during mid-week… If most of them are not with other people, like on family days out, going shopping, or commuting to a job - then WTF ARE they doing out and about, having a spike in accidents to boot?
soz old chap,i’ve been re-visiting my old Viz-comic idol-Mr-Logic fom the web archives,seem to be channeling the bugger 
