Is the logistics sector/economy slowly collapsing?

UK PROFESSIONAL DRIVERS FORUMS THE UK PROFESSIONAL DRIVERS FORUM (INTERACTIVE)
1

‘Scandal-hit trucking firm Eddie Stobart Logistics has been forced to accept an emergency high-interest loan to avoid a collapse before Christmas that would put more than 6,500 jobs at risk.’

‘The failure of a significant number of major logistics and delivery companies over the past year is an early warning of a possible recession, warns the international delivery expert ParcelHero.’

‘UK may be entering ‘full-blown recession’ as Brexit deadline looms, official forecaster says …’

Predictions that can be dismissed as scare stories, or is the future not as rosy as the government would have us believe? Leaving aside the blame game of Brexit, economic migrants, or the consequences of a gig economy; in a changing world of work and the continuing collapse of household name UK logistics companies is anyone safe anymore, or are we staring at another 2008 recession in 2020?

2

It would almost be odd if we weren’t going into recession, other neighbouring countries are closer to it than we are, recessions are cyclical and we are due another one based on that alone, we’ve only ever tinkered round the edges of the reasons that led to the problems in 2008.

3

Grandpa:
Eddie Stobart just weeks from collapse
‘Scandal-hit trucking firm Eddie Stobart Logistics has been forced to accept an emergency high-interest loan to avoid a collapse before Christmas that would put more than 6,500 jobs at risk.’

Soaring logistics companies’ failures point to looming Brexit-fuelled recession, warns delivery expert | Commercial News Media
‘The failure of a significant number of major logistics and delivery companies over the past year is an early warning of a possible recession, warns the international delivery expert ParcelHero.’

UK may be entering ‘full-blown recession’ as Brexit deadline looms, official forecaster says | The Independent | The Independent
‘UK may be entering ‘full-blown recession’ as Brexit deadline looms, official forecaster says …’

Predictions that can be dismissed as scare stories, or is the future not as rosy as the government would have us believe? Leaving aside the blame game of Brexit, economic migrants, or the consequences of a gig economy; in a changing world of work and the continuing collapse of household name UK logistics companies is anyone safe anymore, or are we staring at another 2008 recession in 2020?

You can’t ignore Brexit, migration, or gig-economics, but you’re correct that over simplified scape-goating, or suggesting quick’n’easy fixes are useless.

4

British economic decline began decades ago as the UK lost its colonies and supply of cheap raw material and labour. Thatcher, like her or not, decimated the heavy industrial base because of foreign competition that made it unviable and Blair with little heavy industries left and massive unemployment created his ‘third way’ and did the only alternative flooding the economy with borrowed money, creating the illusion of prosperity and largely the cause of 2008. Following that, we’ve moved into a ‘gig economy’ in a dog eat dog society, largely now run by politicians, banks, corporations and venture capitalists.

When and it’s not if the gig economy collapses, where do we go from here?

5

Whats the complaint, people have been voting like turkeys for their own (bribed by charlatans with money borrowed in their childrens names) Christmas for years, when it was as obvious as the nose on your face that we’ve been round the U bend for decades, you only have to look at the national debt to realise that.

If you tried to run a house without making anything to sell and instead borrowing more and more every year until the debt was several times more than the house was worth, meanwhile you invited more people to live in your house who never contributed to add to the burden, you’d have been evicted years ago.

Meanwhile, in the modern west we have a system, it applies in govts and right down to individual companies, that system is we the elite decide what the system will be, and when the system is proved year on year not to be working we double down and do more of it until it does work, when it again doesn’t work we double down further still and enact laws that stating the bleeding obvious is something along the lines of hate speech.

For what we are about to receive we have never been more deserving.

6

What we have in the UK is a parliamentary democracy. That means that once every four years we give consent to the leading majority party to run the country in our name on the basis of a promised manifesto. The problem is that deviating from the manifesto, as long as it stay within the legality framework, has recently become common place, but the last time that happened Cromwell dissolved parliament and became ‘Lord Protector.’ That obviously isn’t going to happen again and so we’re stuck in a supposed democracy where the politicians decide our fate based on what they think is best for us.

Brexit, like it or not, was an instance where a referendum, or ‘people’s vote’, was discarded because the elite decided it wasn’t what they wanted, as were the repeated broken promises of a referendum stretching back to the Blair years. We’re now so conditioned we take this for granted. Years ago we had people like Benn or Skinner, passionate politicians who whether you agree with them or not stood up and let rip, but you look around now and we’ve got multi-millionaires Corbyn, a 60’s Marxist throwback and Boris, an ex-public schoolboy and a parliament that resembles a University debating society! They’re all in it together and we’re the live pawns on a chess board they play with.

We’re now beginning to see the results of a laissez-faire (anything goes) capitalist system in which the elite took over and it’s now all about who can grab the most before we have another 2008, which will probably be even worse because there is nothing else to fall back on.

7

Grandpa:
Eddie Stobart just weeks from collapse
‘Scandal-hit trucking firm Eddie Stobart Logistics has been forced to accept an emergency high-interest loan to avoid a collapse before Christmas that would put more than 6,500 jobs at risk.’

Soaring logistics companies’ failures point to looming Brexit-fuelled recession, warns delivery expert | Commercial News Media
‘The failure of a significant number of major logistics and delivery companies over the past year is an early warning of a possible recession, warns the international delivery expert ParcelHero.’

UK may be entering ‘full-blown recession’ as Brexit deadline looms, official forecaster says | The Independent | The Independent
‘UK may be entering ‘full-blown recession’ as Brexit deadline looms, official forecaster says …’

Predictions that can be dismissed as scare stories, or is the future not as rosy as the government would have us believe? Leaving aside the blame game of Brexit, economic migrants, or the consequences of a gig economy; in a changing world of work and the continuing collapse of household name UK logistics companies is anyone safe anymore, or are we staring at another 2008 recession in 2020?

I should imagine the business model of most of these large logistics operations is prone to collapse, very few assets, trucks, trailers, warehouses all rented, backed by investment companies and margins so small that any minor set-back, loss of contract, unforeseen increased costs, will send them under, only for the directors to set-up again a few weeks later.

8

Too true. Previously, businesses were built on sustainability and long term growth and those were also the heydays of employment. A gig economy business model is all about grab a bit here and do a bit there until someone undercuts you … In a transport world of Arthur Daley’s, for those old enough to remember Only Fools and Horses. That also now applies to drivers as they compete against each other for what’s left on knife edge budgets. Cut overtime or make a shift standard pay. Don’t pay breaks and try to fit three shifts into two. A classic is the idea abolishing a whole night shift and have the driver un/load themselves …

The level of naivety and a continuing belief in ‘wonderful opportunities’ to be had amazes me. You don’t need a degree in economics to see what’s going on, it’s so obvious.

9

Grandpa:
Too true. Previously, businesses were built on sustainability and long term growth and those were also the heydays of employment. A gig economy business model is all about grab a bit here and do a bit there until someone undercuts you … In a transport world of Arthur Daley’s, for those old enough to remember Only Fools and Horses. That also now applies to drivers as they compete against each other for what’s left on knife edge budgets. Cut overtime or make a shift standard pay. Don’t pay breaks and try to fit three shifts into two. A classic is the idea abolishing a whole night shift and have the driver un/load themselves …

The level of naivety and a continuing belief in ‘wonderful opportunities’ to be had amazes me. You don’t need a degree in economics to see what’s going on, it’s so obvious.

You as a person do not have a clue how the world works and life as well you expect things to never change you want everything to stay the same
It’s people like that who love to complain about everything and everything no matter how good you would have it
You are the person who people run a mile when they see you coming why because you live in the past
It’s not a opinion you have or facts that you preach its bitterness pure and simple
And you can’t get a job now that doesn’t surprise me

10

Yes. Too many drivers whinging about their tight deadlines…

11

I reckon in a nutshell the race to the bottom has finally reached it’s objective , those companies still remaining are scrabbling round trying to keep their heads above water .

12

Bigtruck3:

Grandpa:
Too true. Previously, businesses were built on sustainability and long term growth and those were also the heydays of employment. A gig economy business model is all about grab a bit here and do a bit there until someone undercuts you … In a transport world of Arthur Daley’s, for those old enough to remember Only Fools and Horses. That also now applies to drivers as they compete against each other for what’s left on knife edge budgets. Cut overtime or make a shift standard pay. Don’t pay breaks and try to fit three shifts into two. A classic is the idea abolishing a whole night shift and have the driver un/load themselves …

The level of naivety and a continuing belief in ‘wonderful opportunities’ to be had amazes me. You don’t need a degree in economics to see what’s going on, it’s so obvious.

You as a person do not have a clue how the world works and life as well you expect things to never change you want everything to stay the same
It’s people like that who love to complain about everything and everything no matter how good you would have it
You are the person who people run a mile when they see you coming why because you live in the past
It’s not a opinion you have or facts that you preach its bitterness pure and simple
And you can’t get a job now that doesn’t surprise me

Fortunately, I spent many years learning how the world works and then for many years taught others in a professional capacity in the Far East. I don’t play guessing games.

The world changes, sometimes for the better and sometimes not. By 2014, Britain had lost 1/10th of its skilled and educated workforce and I was one of them. We knew as early as 2005/6 what was going to happen and most of us can see a repeat in the not too distant future. I’m not bitter, I’m disappointed and the ones now with tunnel vision are the same ones that were taking out mortgages just before the last recession and couldn’t see it coming either.

Google something like ‘Haulage companies going bust’, look at the images and get a glimpse of your future.

I don’t complain. For those of you who are older, you’ll have seen the changes yourselves. All of you will have noticed, if you can be bothered, as the construction industry stagnates and transport companies start going under, or haven’t you noticed? Perhaps you believe the politicians who told you the credit boom would never end in 2008 and the same politicians that now tell you we’ve got a booming economy?

It does always seem to revert back to the poster and that’s because the few who don’t know how economies work seek an easy target. I don’t have to be bitter because I’ve already got a job back in the professions – I start my probationary period on Monday. I didn’t want to, but after a few months I can see what’s coming and I realized why the chaos around me.

Now, you could say, ‘that’s just your opinion’ and again you’d be wrong. It’s the opinion of tens of thousands who have a class 1 licence and now aren’t using them. The bad news for you is that the c**p that’s available now in the collapsing gig economy is what you’ll have to eventually do as it gets worse and I don’t envy you.

13

rigsby:
I reckon in a nutshell the race to the bottom has finally reached it’s objective , those companies still remaining are scrabbling round trying to keep their heads above water .

The good news is that some of you get it, but it will get worse before it (hopefully) gets better.

14

Lets get back to tgood ole days, no speed limiters, just a log-book (or two) and no deadlines, greedy bosses, or Profumos, Poulsons, or Thorpes. . Im opening up an eBay shop before Xmas specialising in glasses with rosy hued lenses. I`ll make a fortune!

15

Looking at the number of people opting for full time jobs on lower pay rather than “chancing it” on agency - I’d say the expectation of an imminent recession - are rather high at the moment…

“Brexit Not Being Done” of course - makes matters worse.

Who can plan ahead?

Where is the “Operation Yellowhammer” money going?

16

Two observations:

1 PEAK STUFF
People can no longer afford big enough homes to keep loads of tat in. What spare money they have tends now to be spent on enhanced leisure time rather than home improvements or new shiny things.

2 COST-CUTTING
A business where the only strategy is ‘taking out cost’ is doomed.When you’ve cut the last unnecessary cost, what do you do next?

17

Juddian:
you only have to look at the national debt to realise that.

If you tried to run a house without making anything to sell and instead borrowing more and more every year until the debt was several times more than the house was worth, meanwhile you invited more people to live in your house who never contributed to add to the burden, you’d have been evicted years ago.

But the debt isn’t several times what the house is worth, it’s not even as much as the house is worth. The national debt is about 85% of annual GDP, the equivalent to someone on a £30k a year salary having a £25,500 mortgage and would you say that a mortgage with £100 a month repayment when you earn £2500 a month was unaffordable? How many times more than your annual salary was your house when you bought it? Did you see that as an issue?

18

If you owe the bank £250thousand - you’ve got a problem.
If you owe the Bank £250million - the BANK has a problem!
If the Country owes the Bank £250billion - the BANK has a problem.
If the Bank owes the Country “Social Change” - the BANK has a problem.
If Labour doesn’t call collect - the GOVERNMENT has a problem.
If a government no longer needs banks - the BANK has a problem.

I wonder how many long-standing Labour voters out there - are disgusted at how they chose to bail out the banking system in 2008 rather than “let if fail, nationalize it for quid, and then managed within our means from then on”. Steep recession, but a rather hard Brexit done right then and there if we had…

Think about it: We only EVER have to do the “bidding of others” because we “cannot borrow money from overseas unless we toe their line”…

What happens in the years to come if the Lender of Last Resort - the Chinese - decide they want to call in all the debt?

“British Steel” is just the START of it…
I bet poltiical Labour would be quite happy for China to bring in “Social Credit” to this country, where you cannot get a job, borrow money, or even use certain established institutions - IF your social score ain’t upto much, e.g. you’re not a soma-taking conformist at all times… :open_mouth:

19

It’s not about going back to previous days, or wearing rose tinted spectacles. It’s about facing reality. Both the transport industry and the government are saying we need more drivers, but we don’t. What we need to do is ask the tens of thousands who have licences why they aren’t using them anymore. The answers coming back are a mixture of low pay, the amount of physical labour, overwork and micro-management. There’s your answer. The recruitment drives aren’t working and that’s because those reasons aren’t being addressed and to be fair to the transport industry, those that try to address those problems would go bust and they are doing, one after another.

https://unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2018/july/lorry-driving-in-crisis-due-to-health-problems-and-recruitment-crisis-warns-unite/
‘In order to both recruit new drivers and retain the existing workforce, the industry needs to have a long hard look at itself and end the race to the bottom attitude that currently exists on pay and conditions. Many drivers are forced to operate on a casualised basis, often operating via employment agencies … The way drivers are treated is making workers ill and forcing highly dedicated drivers to leave the industry years before their normal retirement date.’

‘Three out of ten lorry drivers have fallen asleep at the wheel and nearly half of them caused accidents as a result, according to a report published yesterday … Commissioned by the Transport and General Workers’ Union, the report attacked Britain’s “failing” transport system for dramatic increases in illness among both coach and lorry drivers. “The constant pressure to drive down costs is the biggest killer of all,” according to a T&G spokesman.’

Am I willing to risk stress related illness, physical injury or even death to complete totally unrealistic timed deliveries in what UNITE describes as a ‘race to the bottom’? How many reading this are going to become just another a statistic in 2020, as they compete to make a profit for a collapsing profit driven industry?

For those that say, ‘my job isn’t like that’, it soon will be, because if your company isn’t working you flat out on 12 hours shifts to the point of micro-managing your breaks whilst unloading, they’re going to lose that contact to those that do. How long do you imagine you can keep up that pace before you burn yourself out? It’s not a job anymore, it’s a cost cutting endurance test. Yes, it’s a negative outlook, but there are very few who think the transport industry is doing anything else but collapsing. Come on, don’t focus on me, but tell me why continuing to work in that sort of environment is a good idea?

You’d have to be seriously soft in the head to imagine you can take on a 30 year £250K mortgage in the current economic climate of the transport industry and hope you’ll ever pay it off. You’re just renting till the next recession.

20

Grandpa:
It’s not about going back to previous days, or wearing rose tinted spectacles. It’s about facing reality. Both the transport industry and the government are saying we need more drivers, but we don’t. What we need to do is ask the tens of thousands who have licences why they aren’t using them anymore. The answers coming back are a mixture of low pay, the amount of physical labour, overwork and micro-management. There’s your answer. The recruitment drives aren’t working and that’s because those reasons aren’t being addressed and to be fair to the transport industry, those that try to address those problems would go bust and they are doing, one after another.

https://unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2018/july/lorry-driving-in-crisis-due-to-health-problems-and-recruitment-crisis-warns-unite/
‘In order to both recruit new drivers and retain the existing workforce, the industry needs to have a long hard look at itself and end the race to the bottom attitude that currently exists on pay and conditions. Many drivers are forced to operate on a casualised basis, often operating via employment agencies … The way drivers are treated is making workers ill and forcing highly dedicated drivers to leave the industry years before their normal retirement date.’

Stress of work taking toll on lorry drivers | The Independent | The Independent
‘Three out of ten lorry drivers have fallen asleep at the wheel and nearly half of them caused accidents as a result, according to a report published yesterday … Commissioned by the Transport and General Workers’ Union, the report attacked Britain’s “failing” transport system for dramatic increases in illness among both coach and lorry drivers. “The constant pressure to drive down costs is the biggest killer of all,” according to a T&G spokesman.’

Am I willing to risk stress related illness, physical injury or even death to complete totally unrealistic timed deliveries in what UNITE describes as a ‘race to the bottom’? How many reading this are going to become just another a statistic in 2020, as they compete to make a profit for a collapsing profit driven industry?

For those that say, ‘my job isn’t like that’, it soon will be, because if your company isn’t working you flat out on 12 hours shifts to the point of micro-managing your breaks whilst unloading, they’re going to lose that contact to those that do. How long do you imagine you can keep up that pace before you burn yourself out? It’s not a job anymore, it’s a cost cutting endurance test. Yes, it’s a negative outlook, but there are very few who think the transport industry is doing anything else but collapsing. Come on, don’t focus on me, but tell me why continuing to work in that sort of environment is a good idea?

You’d have to be seriously soft in the head to imagine you can take on a 30 year £250K mortgage in the current economic climate of the transport industry and hope you’ll ever pay it off. You’re just renting till the next recession.

Grandpa you made your point across in the previous post on deadlines.Just leave the topic you have been going on with the same points.We all know the sector is in trouble.We need new ideas not the same criticism .