tommy t:
WHAT HAS THAT P.O.S B-LAIR GOT TO DO WITH ANYTHING RE THE REFERENDUM
Look on the bright side he’s the best asset that the Labour side of the out campaign has to use as ammunition against the in campaign side.That’s why I posted his arguments against Kate Hoey’s. 
On that note Blair’s confidence of the in campaign winning reminds me of this bit in the old Battle of Britain film. 
youtube.com/watch?v=o-BJ2EKtbUA
8.06 - 8.31
“Arsch auf.”?
Merkel isn’t getting anywhere near as big a kicking up her own arse in the latest polls, it seems. 
It seems those pilots thought they were over darkest Essex when they were actually over NE London…
Merkel doesn’t seem to have any contingency in place - so sure they are of getting Cameron to play us all along…
Price has been steady in the decimal 1.4’s for WEEKS now. No news seems to have any effect “outwards” on the price. “IN” remains odds-on, and the turnout anticipation sits stubbornly around the 70% mark.
This is normally how it goes in banana republics when the “result” is not only a foregone conclusion, but the exact result is known as well. Which henchmen get to lose out, and which get elevated.
31% “OUT” 32% “IN” and 37% “Abstain” - keeps us solidly in the EU, and primed for the next bit of abuse they care to hurl at us.
I’m surprised Osbourne thinks he can cut public services further in this week’s budget… I would have thought he might want to try and placate the OUT camp rather than give more tax cuts to Conservative voters in general at this time…
Winseer:
Merkel isn’t getting anywhere near as big a kicking up her own arse in the latest polls, it seems.
The word is that whatever major movement there was in the vote went from Merkel to the equally pro immigration Greens not so much to the AfD where it would have been expected. 
Splitting the vote like this - means Merkel will remain.
The same applies in the states. Trump’s best chance of beating Hilary is to appeal to middle class women - which currently seems unlikely. One thing seems clear though - Hilary has NOT got the middle class female vote!
…Trump apparently does have the Hispanic vote though.
Winseer:
Splitting the vote like this - means Merkel will remain.
Meanwhile other media suggests that it wasn’t so bad for the AfD after all.It all might look a bit different given a national picture later.
dw.com/en/german-state-elect … a-19113604
As for Trump it looks like America is following my predictions of inter ethnic/faction implosion sooner or later going by the recent ‘issues’.While it’s obvious that more Federalism,in the form of too much emphasis on who is or isn’t the President,isn’t going to fix America’s problems of too much power held in Washington,not in the individual States anyway.
Because she is a mut, that Clinton be-hatch knows nothing about running a bath let alone a country time the majority of the usa voted trump
Winseer:
Price has been steady in the decimal 1.4’s for WEEKS now. No news seems to have any effect “outwards” on the price. “IN” remains odds-on, and the turnout anticipation sits stubbornly around the 70% mark.This is normally how it goes in banana republics when the “result” is not only a foregone conclusion, but the exact result is known as well. Which henchmen get to lose out, and which get elevated.
.
Which leaves the question how can they possibly predict or already know the level of support for in v out within the Labour vote.Which is probably the key. Added to the unknown UKIP vote that voted tactically at the last election for fear of an SNP/Lab coalition.Bearing in mind there might arguably even be time to also even swing a large part of it. On that note a 70% turnout can only mean 30% abstain in which case that obviously leaves the 7% unaccounted for in that in v out figure.
Having said that as I said wars have historically ( rightly ) been fought over these issues and I’m guessing that’s sadly where it will ultimately end up going for future generations if democracy fails to sort it.
It is assumed that ALL UKIPers are voting “OUT” - but this might not actually be the case.
It is assumed that Labour party supporters will all be voting “IN” - but this might not be the case.
Most people are not going to vote, because they don’t understand the issues, are not interested in the issues, or have an “I’m alright jack” lifestyle that is not affected by the issues.
Such people are as likely to come from any political or non-political background.
Labour have already got rid of the 16 & 17 year olds getting the vote after it was found that Young people are actually quite in favour of Brexit - as the young Scots were strongly in favour of leaving the UK.
Because “IN” wins by default, all Cameron has to do is “put enough people off voting” which would then give the OUT camp too high a wall to climb.
A high turnout is key to the OUT camp’s pulling it off. It needs to be at least as high as the turnout in the Scottish Referendum. The OUT camp MUST get the votes of people who’ve never voted before, people that have only just come of age, and people who don’t like Osbourne’s budget this week.
The betting market is still implying a result of 31% “out” 32% “in” and 37% “don’t vote”. That’s a too-low turnout of 67.0% then, and it doesn’t matter than the “ins” only got a low 32%. If they get one single vote more than the OUTs - they win.
For the OUTs to win though? - 51% of the entire electorate is required.
If OUT gets 39% and IN get 36% - some rule will be passed converting all “non-voters” votes into “casting votes for the status quo”. A weak poll of less than 51% then leaves the OUTs vulnerable even if they get more votes than IN.
The ballot rigs itself. To paraphrase Stalin “It’s not the voters that count. It’s those who count the votes, and how exactly they are counted.”
Evil8Beezle:
The-Snowman:
I love the way that anyone for in just says so and gives reasons but anyone for out feels the need to insult everyone who has the audacity to think differentlyWell I’m for leaving, but as I’ve not been keeping up with the thread, who do I need to insult?
just insult everyone it works for most on here.
companies will still trade if we pull out of the EU,contracts are worth hundreds of thounsands if not more for these European countries who sell to us,if we pull out they are not going to suddenly say right we are cancelling our contracts with the uk,if they did they would be cutting their own throats,point is trade will still go on between the uk and Europe but we[the taxpayer] will no longer be ripped off for billions of pounds every year,thats why I will vote out,hopefully sort the migrant problem out as well
truckman020:
companies will still trade if we pull out of the EU,contracts are worth hundreds of thounsands if not more for these European countries who sell to us,if we pull out they are not going to suddenly say right we are cancelling our contracts with the uk,if they did they would be cutting their own throats,point is trade will still go on between the uk and Europe but we[the taxpayer] will no longer be ripped off for billions of pounds every year,thats why I will vote out,hopefully sort the migrant problem out as well
If you think UK will not pay like Norway or Swiss do to have access to EU market, you are mistaken. If you think EU will not impose WTO tariffs of 10-15% to protect its own companies, you are again mistaken. If you think EU will let UK be the financial capital of EU once outside of it, you are mistaken. If you think foreign investments will not cease when you stop to be the gateway to EU, you are mistaken.
Im astonished that Brexit supporter believe once UK is outside of EU its gonna have better deal.
Boris Johnson was talking about Canadian way past few days, well it took Canada 7 years to negotiate trade agreement and still has import tax on car, beef meat etc.
There is nothing wrong will leaving EU, its British people say, period, but lets be realistic that its not gonna be all wonderful, as Americans say: “If the grass is greener on the other side of the fence, you can bet the water bill is higher.”.
For those of you that missed this…
Plenty of questions answered here, including kicking into touch this daft idea that the EU will embargo or surcharge us for trade if we do Brexit.
Dolph:
truckman020:
companies will still trade if we pull out of the EU,contracts are worth hundreds of thounsands if not more for these European countries who sell to us,if we pull out they are not going to suddenly say right we are cancelling our contracts with the uk,if they did they would be cutting their own throats,point is trade will still go on between the uk and Europe but we[the taxpayer] will no longer be ripped off for billions of pounds every year,thats why I will vote out,hopefully sort the migrant problem out as wellIf you think UK will not pay like Norway or Swiss do to have access to EU market, you are mistaken. If you think EU will not impose WTO tariffs of 10-15% to protect its own companies, you are again mistaken. If you think EU will let UK be the financial capital of EU once outside of it, you are mistaken. If you think foreign investments will not cease when you stop to be the gateway to EU, you are mistaken.
Im astonished that Brexit supporter believe once UK is outside of EU its gonna have better deal.
Boris Johnson was talking about Canadian way past few days, well it took Canada 7 years to negotiate trade agreement and still has import tax on car, beef meat etc.
There is nothing wrong will leaving EU, its British people say, period, but lets be realistic that its not gonna be all wonderful, as Americans say: “If the grass is greener on the other side of the fence, you can bet the water bill is higher.”.
Where do you get all your information Dolph have you Merkel on speed dial? An article in the Times today (a paper that is pro staying in) states that the trade treaties Europe has are generally detrimental to the UK for example the EU has a 9% tariff on rice from India to protect Spanish and Italian rice growers, so out of the EU we negotiate with India for a better deal as we would not be required to subsidise uneconomical rice growing in Europe. The EU is very much against trade with the rest of the world when it comes to food as it is forced to subsidise inefficient European farmers by the likes of the French government without realising that by opening up the African markets it would improve the living standards of Africans and maybe help to reduce the need for most of northern Africa to come to Europe. The EU talks about unfair competition yet there is no chance of the CAP even being reformed let alone got rid of, millions are wasted and defrauded trough this scheme every year yet no one in Brussels has the will or the balls to tackle it. You believe it is all about trade well it isn’t leaving the EU to most people is about having a say in how your country is run.
Conduct an opinion poll in Bulgaria as to how many people want to take in migrants from Syria and Africa would like to hazard a guess that those wanting them to come are in the minority yet when Merkel gets her way you will take your quota or lose payments from the EU, democracy the EU way just do as you are told!!!
Winseer:
It is assumed that ALL UKIPers are voting “OUT” - but this might not actually be the case.
It is assumed that Labour party supporters will all be voting “IN” - but this might not be the case.Most people are not going to vote, because they don’t understand the issues, are not interested in the issues, or have an “I’m alright jack” lifestyle that is not affected by the issues.
Such people are as likely to come from any political or non-political background.Labour have already got rid of the 16 & 17 year olds getting the vote after it was found that Young people are actually quite in favour of Brexit - as the young Scots were strongly in favour of leaving the UK.
Because “IN” wins by default, all Cameron has to do is “put enough people off voting” which would then give the OUT camp too high a wall to climb.
A high turnout is key to the OUT camp’s pulling it off. It needs to be at least as high as the turnout in the Scottish Referendum. The OUT camp MUST get the votes of people who’ve never voted before, people that have only just come of age, and people who don’t like Osbourne’s budget this week.
The betting market is still implying a result of 31% “out” 32% “in” and 37% “don’t vote”. That’s a too-low turnout of 67.0% then, and it doesn’t matter than the “ins” only got a low 32%. If they get one single vote more than the OUTs - they win.
For the OUTs to win though? - 51% of the entire electorate is required.
If OUT gets 39% and IN get 36% - some rule will be passed converting all “non-voters” votes into “casting votes for the status quo”. A weak poll of less than 51% then leaves the OUTs vulnerable even if they get more votes than IN.
The ballot rigs itself. To paraphrase Stalin “It’s not the voters that count. It’s those who count the votes, and how exactly they are counted.”
Firstly where is the exact rule in the referendum that says the out vote needs a higher 51% majority threshold figure than the in vote needs.
As for the in campaign,if their hopes are resting on the assumption of the Labour in vote,let alone the UKIP in vote 
and Tony Blair’s encouragement I make that a good place to be for the out side.
Dolph:
truckman020:
companies will still trade if we pull out of the EU,contracts are worth hundreds of thounsands if not more for these European countries who sell to us,if we pull out they are not going to suddenly say right we are cancelling our contracts with the uk,if they did they would be cutting their own throats,point is trade will still go on between the uk and Europe but we[the taxpayer] will no longer be ripped off for billions of pounds every year,thats why I will vote out,hopefully sort the migrant problem out as wellIf you think UK will not pay like Norway or Swiss do to have access to EU market, you are mistaken. If you think EU will not impose WTO tariffs of 10-15% to protect its own companies, you are again mistaken. If you think EU will let UK be the financial capital of EU once outside of it, you are mistaken. If you think foreign investments will not cease when you stop to be the gateway to EU, you are mistaken.
Im astonished that Brexit supporter believe once UK is outside of EU its gonna have better deal.
Boris Johnson was talking about Canadian way past few days, well it took Canada 7 years to negotiate trade agreement and still has import tax on car, beef meat etc.
There is nothing wrong will leaving EU, its British people say, period, but lets be realistic that its not gonna be all wonderful, as Americans say: “If the grass is greener on the other side of the fence, you can bet the water bill is higher.”.
Great so you’re still thinking that ze Germans could win a trade war with us. They’ll be pleased to see that they’ve still got their historic loyal allies with them though at least so long as they are Merkel supporters.
As for the Americans that obviously depends on whether it’s the Federal view.Or the Confederate one.I think that goes something like American by birth,but Southern by the grace of God,even if it can be as hot and humid as hell.
The 51% figure is merely the “finishing line” for where one has an unarguable outright majority.
Because “IN” represents the status quo - you are NOT going to have that turned over on a 33% “OUT” 32% “IN” poll. “First past the post” WILL be held up for the INs if they should “win” with this amount, BUT there is no way that this government is going to let everything get turned over without an outright majority - which is just over 50%. Sure, it could be 50.000000001%, but I simplify it by calling it 51% for this argument.
Any result which gives the OUT camp below 50% but with more votes than IN got - is going to be challenged - which will take months…
Meanwhile, the EU will just suggest we hold another referendum, with some extra concessions added to sway a few people that didn’t vote at all - to vote IN to bring back stability to the country.
All the time this “uncertain” period lags on - our domestic markets will be in turmoil.
Meanwhile, instead of giving some concessions to the public in his budget - Osbourne apparently intends to cut further.
If I were him, I’d match what we’re giving Brussels each year - and throw that into the pot for a “giveaway” budget distribution, and declare that the EU has kindly asked us for no further money for the tax year 2016-17.
They’ll not deny it - unless they want to pull the rug from Osbourne’s support of the IN campaign… He needs to play his position here.
If we appear to be getting better off this year BECAUSE of Osbourne and BECAUSE the EU accommodated him - a second ballot (NOT a second referendum!) would be a lot easier for IN to win this time.
You don’t so much try and get more people to vote “IN”… You just stop us wavering buggers from voting OUT, and get them to become apathetic, get back in their box, and stay at home instead…
Thus, second time around, the “OUT” poll remains static, but IN drops past it into second place… IN get declared the eventual winners.
The OUT then - MUST get over 50% in the first round - to prevent any further bull from occurring “later”.
I’d say the very worst thing any member of the public can do in this referendum is “Stay at Home”.
We don’t want a “close” result - it has to be massive one way or the other - lest we end up paying the “uncertainty” price ANYWAY.
Winseer:
The 51% figure is merely the “finishing line” for where one has an unarguable outright majority.Because “IN” represents the status quo - you are NOT going to have that turned over on a 33% “OUT” 32% “IN” poll. “First past the post” WILL be held up for the INs if they should “win” with this amount, BUT there is no way that this government is going to let everything get turned over without an outright majority - which is just over 50%. Sure, it could be 50.000000001%, but I simplify it by calling it 51% for this argument.
Any result which gives the OUT camp below 50% but with more votes than IN got - is going to be challenged - which will take months…
Challenged on what basis bearing in mind that no such rule has been stated for referendum vote and if it did that would actually be grounds to boycot it not take part in it.On the grounds of it not being a free and fair vote.IE it’s a referendum vote which isn’t based on first past the post it’s simply in v out abstentions don’t count.
Winseer:
I’d say the very worst thing any member of the public can do in this referendum is “Stay at Home”.We don’t want a “close” result - it has to be massive one way or the other - lest we end up paying the “uncertainty” price ANYWAY.
Realistically there’s no reason to expect the turnout to be a lot higher than in 1975 on a percentage of the electorate basis.It’s just then a case of turning the figures around hopefully based on the combination of the UKIP,Eurosceptic Con and Labour out vote that obviously wasn’t there then.While as I’ve said the idea of counting abstentions as being for the status quo seems inconsistent with all other electoral procedures here including a referendum.
mazzer:
Dolph:
truckman020:
companies will still trade if we pull out of the EU,contracts are worth hundreds of thounsands if not more for these European countries who sell to us,if we pull out they are not going to suddenly say right we are cancelling our contracts with the uk,if they did they would be cutting their own throats,point is trade will still go on between the uk and Europe but we[the taxpayer] will no longer be ripped off for billions of pounds every year,thats why I will vote out,hopefully sort the migrant problem out as wellIf you think UK will not pay like Norway or Swiss do to have access to EU market, you are mistaken. If you think EU will not impose WTO tariffs of 10-15% to protect its own companies, you are again mistaken. If you think EU will let UK be the financial capital of EU once outside of it, you are mistaken. If you think foreign investments will not cease when you stop to be the gateway to EU, you are mistaken.
Im astonished that Brexit supporter believe once UK is outside of EU its gonna have better deal.
Boris Johnson was talking about Canadian way past few days, well it took Canada 7 years to negotiate trade agreement and still has import tax on car, beef meat etc.
There is nothing wrong will leaving EU, its British people say, period, but lets be realistic that its not gonna be all wonderful, as Americans say: “If the grass is greener on the other side of the fence, you can bet the water bill is higher.”.Where do you get all your information Dolph have you Merkel on speed dial? An article in the Times today (a paper that is pro staying in) states that the trade treaties Europe has are generally detrimental to the UK for example the EU has a 9% tariff on rice from India to protect Spanish and Italian rice growers, so out of the EU we negotiate with India for a better deal as we would not be required to subsidise uneconomical rice growing in Europe. The EU is very much against trade with the rest of the world when it comes to food as it is forced to subsidise inefficient European farmers by the likes of the French government without realising that by opening up the African markets it would improve the living standards of Africans and maybe help to reduce the need for most of northern Africa to come to Europe. The EU talks about unfair competition yet there is no chance of the CAP even being reformed let alone got rid of, millions are wasted and defrauded trough this scheme every year yet no one in Brussels has the will or the balls to tackle it. You believe it is all about trade well it isn’t leaving the EU to most people is about having a say in how your country is run.
Conduct an opinion poll in Bulgaria as to how many people want to take in migrants from Syria and Africa would like to hazard a guess that those wanting them to come are in the minority yet when Merkel gets her way you will take your quota or lose payments from the EU, democracy the EU way just do as you are told!!!
Everything would have been wonderful(and democratic) if UK didn’t went to the Middle East and destroyed countries with the help of its best friend US. We wouldn’t have this mess if Saddam, Guaddafi and Assad were in power…as bad as they were they are 10 better then what is today ME and this refugee crisis.
And Merkel is an idiot to invite them into Europe, I dont know if she has some agenda, or feels WW2 guild and I don’t care we all know its idiotic. We could seal very easily the whole border and no refugee will come, hopefully this is happening as we speak. Lets hope Merkel don’t go crazy and invites more…
P.S. Of course no one here wants illegal muslim invaders, all male, but as in marriage there is good and bad stuff(EU quotas), hopefully once Syria war stop and situation gets better we will deported them back.
Because of the bad weather, fierce cops and mountain terrain illegals are trying to get into EU via vehicles. I’ve always wonder, how some not one of them, not single one has ID document of some kind, if they say the truth and they are Syrians and Iraqis, where are their passports/id cards.
novinite.com/articles/173496 … n+24+Hours
novinite.com/articles/173472 … argo+Train
"No one is crossing Serbia’s borders,“ Tanjug quoted Vulin as telling local TV channel Pink when asked about the level of migration influx on Saturday.
"If the countries located behind us along this route or final destination countries do not want to receive migrants, then Serbia cannot let them pass through its territory,“ the Serbian news agency quoted Vulin as saying.
The Western Balkan route stretching from Greece via Macedonia and Serbia has been practically closed to migrants as of midnight Tuesday after Slovenia and Croatia announced that only people who have valid visas and passports will be allowed to enter their territory. Serbia has followed suit by announcing the introduction of reciprocal measures on its borders with Bulgaria and Macedonia.
Now we must include that those coming there are to be deported back to Turkey, I very much hope our MP makes a final push to include Bulgaria into the agreement, because if this doesn’t happen we gonna have all this illegals from the Greek islands here.
novinite.com/articles/173495 … ith+Ankara
