Thinking on my pocket for the next 5 years (in)
Thinking on my pocket after 5 years and the pocket of my kids for the next 50 years (out)
The EU is a cracked vase that`s leaking. The split of views between north and south on economic models will lead to a split on the core, between Germany and France, on which path the EU has to go. We will be lucky if we wont get pulled in to sort another european mess again. Specially with PESCO being kick started just after the Brexit vote it makes me wonder if the EU is following the soviet style and PESCO is just a EU version of the Warsaw Pact. Can you imagine Germans marching into Paris under the premises of “protecting the union”? That is one of the reasons that I think the EU wants Britain out more than Britain wants to get out itself. Britain has always vetoed a EU integrated armed forces because it could never see the royal navy commanded by a German which is not a member of the royal family. The only worry: this time we wont have Churchill.
Remainers must be emboldened today, with us being as close as ever to having Brexit totally overturned.
The way I see it is “Breaching the March 29th deadline” - a deadline set in LAW after all - effectively overturns Brexit in all but name.
Of course, “kicking it down the road” is just lip-service by our quisling-like MPs who think that they dare not admit they have done this to the British Public - in fear that they’d never get away with it, let alone at the next election, still set otherwise for June 2022.
I’d like to think that we’ll still get a No Deal for March 29th - BUT the price has gone out for this from 7-1 last week, to 8-1 yesterday - and now a whopping 33-1 as of today.
The bet is “Brexit achieved by March 29th”.
“No Deal” by March 29th - counts btw.
What can possibly be agreed by April 12th? Especially bearing in mind that the Speaker won’t let this “third meaningful vote” take place without “substantian changes to it”. Like WHAT?
There isn’t time. It is a binary decision now - and on the face of it, 118 Tory Brexiteers are on the backfoot if they hope to get a No Deal Brexit over the line by anytime - let alone March 29th…
We’ve now got Remain then, in all but name. The Tories will try and pretend that “Brexit can still happen, just later” - but Labour might backstab them - by saying “WE thank you on behalf of the house Prime MInister - for seeing sense, and cancelling Brexit according to the EU’s instructions. We’re quite happy to support you in office until YOU decide when to call the next election now”.
Methinks that next election - would be brought foward BY the Tory backbenchers themselves, - and they’d resoundingly LOSE it.
(That doesn’t mean Labour get to win - but then again, they don’t need to, what with potential coalition partners of the Libdems, SNP, and Sinn Fein to get them over the 326 winning line…)
Thus, Parliament have taken us into a position where it’s “No Brexit - or No more keeping Corbyn out of Government!”
Even the 52% - might reluctantly “let themselves get right-royally shafted” - or so the mainstream thinking goes…
If they are correct then Labour win the next election one way or the other, and UKIP stay on Zippo Seats.
If they are wrong though??..
Well if May gets her way ,us leave voters must all start voting for parties that stand against lib lab CON .
Time will tell what’s what ,but anyone else fed up of hearing about it or what ? 
Last time around in 2017 - we got told “A vote for UKIP is a vote for Corbyn” - only for over 1m voters from UKIP in 2015 to go straight TO Corbyn in protest at our useless PM, if nothing else.
Imagine where we’d be now - had May got a majority in 2017!! She’d actually be able to three-line-whip her deal through the commons, and we’d end up with even more austerity, after parting with £39billion, only for the EU to then deny us anything in return. “Possession is 9/10ths of the law”.
The only brexit actually possible then - IS a “No Deal” one. That, and it must be delivered on March 29th - or it would lose it’s legitimacy.
Thus, fast forward to April 12th - and it will then be argued that it is “May’s Deal or Brexit is Cancelled”. The mandate for a no-deal Brexit - was allowed to expire at 23:00 on Friday March 29th, and the stupid buggers at Westminster - let it happen.
The public won’t be told that Brexit has been cancelled of course… It’ll just take place at some distant point in the future, not even in this dimension of Universe. 
“Never” in other words.
I do hope Labour backstab the PM, thinking that a forced general election would benefit Labour right now…
I voted out in a once in a life time vote 3 years later and I am still in because I am told I did not know what I was voting for, err yes I did I am 70 been in eu 40 years and do not like where it is going
Definitely in.
Unity is strength.
Any UK member states would be free to apply for individual EU membership.
Euro:
Definitely in.
Unity is strength.
Any UK member states would be free to apply for individual EU membership.
It is a shame we can’t see some “Unity” between British Citizens over our own affairs, rather than delegating our cash and laws out to some foreign outfit to tell us what to do all the time, which includes “not treating criminals badly”, be they home-grown or not.
Do we really want to be part of this “Union” that will likely one day ask us to go to war to protect Turkey or Iran against China or Russia - or even America? 
Think of how those Germans felt following the 1933 election - the ones that did NOT vote for the incoming party…
That’s how people that voted Leave feel 42 months on, and not having done any leaving as yet, “The Wrong War” coming up ever-closer. It took Germany six more years in the end to get that “wrong war” declared upon it - or, one could see it as it took six years for the rest of Geographic Europe to come to it’s senses…
I don’t want to be part of a “Union” that wishes to fight Russia to get East Ukraine back for Borgia-like Kiev - at the risk of starting WWIII, bearing in mind Ukraine was a Russian possession to START with.
I don’t want any more migrants masqureading as “Refugees” coming here via Turkey, and the rest of Europe - when we clearly don’t have enough of our own cash to pay for any kind of Socialist government in this country - ever.
I don’t want to be part of a mickey mouse currency that can be arbitrarily deleted from bank accounts - should one fall foul of any future “social scoring”.
I don’t want to be forced to be part of a “Union” - or else you “don’t get employed in the first place”. I shouldn’t have to be “popular” to get a job - just effective enough at doing that job!
I don’t want crimes against me and mine to be “ignored” no matter how serious they might be, whilst the mildest of “infringing beaurocratic law” - will have financial sanctions down upon me like a ton of bricks!
I don’t want to be gloated at that I pay three figures in tax every week - whilst others seem better off than me on the benefits ticket.
I continue to want the hardest Brexit possible - because that is the one that pays the most.
When you get dealt a royal flush - you want your opponent to have four nines and CALL your all-in bet NOT bet at you, and you throw your hand away by mistake!!
We’ve got the winning cards here. OUR cash as yet un-sent. All we have to do to deliver Brexit is “stop paying the EU”. That’s it.
Everything else - falls into place once we stop paying them for ANYTHING bar actual physical goods in transit already.
Our relationship with the EU should be similar to our relationship with America - They are already independent of the UK, and we don’t tell them what to do, any more than they tell us.
It is only the Left of political thought that wants to “distance the UK from america” whilst “getting more into bed with the EU”.
Neither is a perfect entity to be sure.
Why can’t we just be out of the control of BOTH of them then?
Our cash. Let’s spend it on OUR stuff - not their budget, whilst the rest of us “have to go without”.
Nothing was stopping the EU fully-funding our NHS to “keep it free” nor “paying our benefits bill” in appreciation of all the non-EU citizens that have been palmed off on us over the past two decades in particular.
They don’t do so - because to them Liberal socialism is all about “We pay” - and “They take”. That’s it.
Joining the EU in 1974-5 was a bum deal that took advantage of the UK’s status at THAT time of being the “Poor Man of Europe”.
Times have changed. We’re not supposed to WANT to go back to the 70’s now.
Let’s not then.
The pollsters - are lining up to get this election wrong big-time.
Even the Betting markets - are contradicting each other! Some interesting opportunities are developing in that regard.
How can Corbyn be 5/1 against being the next PM and yet Labour are 33/1 against winning a majority in this election?
I’m sure Boris Johnson is NOT going to make Corbyn PM as part of any “coalition agreement” - that’s for sure!!
Swinson - already turned him down in that regard, and so did the SNP with Sturgeon’s “NO Deals” stance.
The only way Corbyn gets to be PM then - is by winning at very least the most seats, and then “not being stopped” by another coalition getting it’s oar in FIRST.
I can’t see a Minority Labour Government lasting through Christmas…
Euro:
Definitely in.
Unity is strength.
Closly followed by:
War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength
Considering what’s happening been in Catalonia, Hong Kong, Iran, Lebanon, Chile and Bolivia and the rise of anti-establishment political groups across Europe and beyond, do you not think people are becoming tired of increasingly more centralised government, where they feel they have been forgotton and have no influence?
Just look at our own parliament, when around a 3rd are privately educated and nearly 1 in 10 went to Eton, do you feel these people actually represent you, come from your socio economic group, have lived a life similar to you?
Euro:
Any UK member states would be free to apply for individual EU membership.
They are of course free to apply, but I believe all member states have to agree to allow a new member in, with things kicking off in Catalonia, do you think the Spanish will want to encourage membership of a country that has just gained independence. Also Catalonia is also a part of France, then if that happens won’t that encourage the Basques, after all it’s not that long ago that they were running a terrorists campaign for the very same thing. Then there are other regions in EU countries that have small but growing independence movements, although some of the 27 might like to give former UK countries entry to the EU, if for nothing less than a up yours to England, they might not want to encourage independence movements in their own country.
muckles:
Euro:
Definitely in.
Unity is strength.Closly followed by:
War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strengthConsidering what’s happening been in Catalonia, Hong Kong, Iran, Lebanon, Chile and Bolivia and the rise of anti-establishment political groups across Europe and beyond, do you not think people are becoming tired of increasingly more centralised government, where they feel they have been forgotton and have no influence?
Just look at our own parliament, when around a 3rd are privately educated and nearly 1 in 10 went to Eton, do you feel these people actually represent you, come from your socio economic group, have lived a life similar to you?
Euro:
Any UK member states would be free to apply for individual EU membership.They are of course free to apply, but I believe all member states have to agree to allow a new member in, with things kicking off in Catalonia, do you think the Spanish will want to encourage membership of a country that has just gained independence. Also Catalonia is also a part of France, then if that happens won’t that encourage the Basques, after all it’s not that long ago that they were running a terrorists campaign for the very same thing. Then there are other regions in EU countries that have small but growing independence movements, although some of the 27 might like to give former UK countries entry to the EU, if for nothing less than a up yours to England, they might not want to encourage independence movements in their own country.
First point, yes.
Second point, well, that’s Tory voters for you.
Third point, I’d hope the other 27 members would be more mature than that.
Carryfast:
Winseer:
This should really be either a compulsory vote OR the public should be told the truth that “every person that does not vote - is effectively voting for the status quo”.Exactly where is the evidence of the double standard of a minority vote for in being recognised but not in the case of out.
If that’s really the case it would be better for the out side to boycott the vote on grounds of it being rigged and then call for what’s needed in the form of a Nationalist government that stands on a ticket of taking us out without a referendum on the grounds that the treaties of Rome,Maastricht and Lisbon are against the national constitution.Let alone all the other economic issues.On that note if Davis,Fox and Howie among others like John Boyd are as principled regards country not Party as they say we’ve already got the core of the start of that new Party already there.
And this is why the rightwing/brexit mob never get anywhere. They promise ‘the masses’ an unattainable goal. When ‘the masses’ realise it can’t be attained, the looniest side spin-off to start a new organisation.
So, the Conservative right fails to deliver and spawns, UKIP, which fails to deliver and spawns The Brexit Party Plc, which will no doubt spin off yet another party when it too fails to deliver.
Note Farage is already trying to ‘manage down’ the expectations of his followers. He’s gone from ‘No Deal is the only acceptable deal’ to ‘Leave quickly on the Johnson deal’.
“Our relationship with the EU should be similar to our relationship with America - They are already independent of the UK, and we don’t tell them what to do, any more than they tell us.”
But they do tell us what to do. And we do it.
Example:
the decline of the British deep-water fishing fleet is often blamed on ‘The EU’. Not the case. The British deepwater fleet fished in Icelandic waters. The Icelandic Gvt got ■■■■■■ off, and closed the water to the UK. The UK responded by sending the Royal Navy. The Icelandic Gvt responded by telling the US Gvt that unless the RN cleared off it would kick the US off its bases in Iceland.
The US told the British to stop, and the British did. Any fishing we lost to the EU was lost because the owners of the British boats sold their quotas to other European operators.
Example:
more recently. Blair did just what Bush told him to and got us stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan in undeclared wars that were comprehensively lost.
Expect more of the same if we leave the EU, and don’t expect Trump to allow the UK to retain the current trade surplus it enjoys with the USA.
GasGas:
So, the Conservative right fails to deliver and spawns, UKIP, which fails to deliver and spawns The Brexit Party Plc, which will no doubt spin off yet another party when it too fails to deliver.
You mean like The Independent Group, becoming, Change UK, then falling apart and some members flouncing off to join the Lib Dems, who themselves were an amalgamation of the SPD (formed by a bunch of MP’s flouncing off from the Labour party) and Liberal parties.
dexxy57:
muckles:
Euro:
Definitely in.
Unity is strength.Closly followed by:
War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strengthConsidering what’s happening been in Catalonia, Hong Kong, Iran, Lebanon, Chile and Bolivia and the rise of anti-establishment political groups across Europe and beyond, do you not think people are becoming tired of increasingly more centralised government, where they feel they have been forgotton and have no influence?
Just look at our own parliament, when around a 3rd are privately educated and nearly 1 in 10 went to Eton, do you feel these people actually represent you, come from your socio economic group, have lived a life similar to you?
Euro:
Any UK member states would be free to apply for individual EU membership.They are of course free to apply, but I believe all member states have to agree to allow a new member in, with things kicking off in Catalonia, do you think the Spanish will want to encourage membership of a country that has just gained independence. Also Catalonia is also a part of France, then if that happens won’t that encourage the Basques, after all it’s not that long ago that they were running a terrorists campaign for the very same thing. Then there are other regions in EU countries that have small but growing independence movements, although some of the 27 might like to give former UK countries entry to the EU, if for nothing less than a up yours to England, they might not want to encourage independence movements in their own country.
First point, yes.
Second point, well, that’s Tory voters for you.
Third point, I’d hope the other 27 members would be more mature than that.
First point, I was going to include Scotland, even Wales, in that, but as of yet no major riots, unless that news has been suppressed.
2nd. Not just Tories though, although they top the private school league, Private educated MP’s are also well above the national average in both Labour and Lib Dems, not to mention Labours hatred for private education even though plenty of their MP’s are still happy to send their children to them.
3rd I’m sure the remaining 27 countries will carefully consider applications from newly independent countries, backed by those in the EU who want continued expansion, but the elephant in the room is many would not want to encourage their own independence movements.
how do Canada, New Zealand ,Australia ect ect manage without being in a similar club as EU
Too many people end up voting Tory because they are afraid of Labour - nothing more.
I’m expected to fall in - but for me, it is because the party I wanted to vote for - isn’t now standing.
I got a leaflet through the door today from the Labour candidate…
Odd thing is, I’ve yet to vote Labour in my life, and I trolled this guy something rotten over the Grammar school issue some time ago, along with his local labour chums also trying to win seats nearby. I overview THREE contituencies out of my window - one advantage of living up on a hill.
At present, I can’t see any of the three Conservative Candidates - losing their seats, regardless of Brexit Party standing or not.
If what is happening in GRIMSBY bears out around the country - we see there a target Tory seat being HELPED by Brexit Party standing against them, apparently “splitting the vote”.
This goes back to the notion that each vote moving to Brexit Party takes TWO from Labour over ONE from the Conservatives… There’s also the possibility of Brexit Party motivating new voters to vote for them as their first time out vote past age 18, having not voted either way in the referendum.
I would say we have reached the point where it is IMPOSSIBLE to accurately predict “based on the pollsters” how this election is going to pan out.
I will carry on placing some strategic bets to try and benefit from discrepencies in the prices over the likelihoods and possibilities…
fuse:
how do Canada, New Zealand ,Australia ect ect manage without being in a similar club as EU
Their economies are very different to ours…they export raw materials and agricultural products and import finished goods. The UK economy is utterly different, mostly based on the relatively nebulous area of ‘services’.
We don’t have any raw materials worth exporting left, and cannot feed out own population. We need close trading links with our nearest neighbours and full membership of the world’s largest trading bloc so we can export services and high-value products. Many of the products we export are actually components for other products that other nations then export.
For instance…fuel injection systems in DAF and Volvo trucks…made in Stonehouse, Gloucestershire of all places. Turbos for virtually every make of truck…made in Huddersfield. We’ve gone from making the ‘big low-value low-profit lumps’ to small, high-value, high-profit components, and need seamless trade with our partners to be able to continue to do so.
Surely a bigger, richer Europe makes are less vulnerable to unwanted economic or security threats.
Not if you still live in ‘The Woower’ as some here wittering on about Germany invading other countries seem to do.
The UK should take a good look at Germany, particularly its education system, and try to emulate it.
For example: Why is Germany so good at selling stuff to the UK, while the UK is quite bad at selling stuff to Germany?
Could it be that almost anyone with a good job in Germany (including German truck drivers) can speak English?
Interestingly…I meet quite a lot of German engineers, and they are actually quite enthusiastic about British engineering. We just aren’t always very good at selling it to them.
Likewise France…there’s a British bloke in a very senior design role at Renault Trucks, for instance.
GasGas:
Not if you still live in ‘The Woower’ as some here wittering on about Germany invading other countries seem to do.The UK should take a good look at Germany, particularly its education system, and try to emulate it.
For example: Why is Germany so good at selling stuff to the UK, while the UK is quite bad at selling stuff to Germany?
Could it be that almost anyone with a good job in Germany (including German truck drivers) can speak English?
Interestingly…I meet quite a lot of German engineers, and they are actually quite enthusiastic about British engineering. We just aren’t always very good at selling it to them.
Likewise France…there’s a British bloke in a very senior design role at Renault Trucks, for instance.
Germany seems to do OK as a member of the EU. Not exactly hamstrung by its payments to the EU. Not hobbled by obeying its rules and regs.
Of course the Germans do invest a lot more in R&D than the UK.
uis.unesco.org/apps/visualisatio … -spending/
They have works councils, established by law, in the bigger companies.
The Gini indices for Germany are more equitable than those for the UK. (Wealth is more fairly distributed).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c … e_equality
There is a lot we can learn from them, Id agree. Strangely though, they arent quite as happy as us.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Happiness_Report
Euro could have:
Surely a bigger Europe makes the rich less vulnerable to unwanted economic or security threats.
Judging by what I saw and what people told me in my travels across the EU after the last financial crash, I would say that you are nearly correct. 