In or out of EU ? Poll

[carryfast]

Winseer:
If the economy improves for rank and file workers - chances are we’ll stay in. No one rocks the boat when it’s plain sailing. You don’t talk in the condemned cell of “rope” either, mind.

We lose money to the EU. As long as individuals don’t “feel like they are losing” - they’ll be happy to continue doing the same.

At street level - the type of person who’ll vote “Stay in the EU” is the same type of person who thinks you can win money when you buy a scratchcard.
“One in five wins - that’s a real chance!” they’ll bleat…

How many tickets before you get a real win though? - one that leaves you ahead over what you’ve spent so far… my definition of winning…

Buy 10 tickets = win £20 on one of them… YES that would be a win - if only it had a real chance of happening.
Buy 10 tickets and have two of them win £1 (the real meaning of “1 in five wins”) - That’s “stealth losing” as I’ve described above.

No statistics are available as to “what’s the chance of getting a winning ticket” - if “wins” of upto double the ticket price were all excluded…

I suspect it’s something like “one in 548” of getting a £20 winner - put if that way.

Tell a person who’s buying scratchcards that they are donking money away - and they won’t believe you.
Tell that same person we’ll be better off leaving the EU - and they probably won’t believe that either.
Therein lies Cameron’s best chance of winning the referendum. It only remains for it to be held at the “right time of the economic cycle” then.

Cameron’s already playing that card for all it’s worth anyway.IE those who think that their living standards and prosperity depend on continued membership of the EU won’t change that view regardless of downturns or upturns.They’ll just think that any downturn would be worse ‘if’ we aren’t in it.While ignoring inconvenient facts like trade deficit and net contributions and Federal rule by people like Merkel.The fact is there’s very little room for Cameron to be relying on any large scale potential swing vote because the issues are already there and entrenched in the opposing sides.

On that note Farage seems more relaxed and confident than Cameron.Probably on the basis of realistically the country is probably already a lost cause that isn’t worth bothering too much about.But if we win that’s a bonus and we might then stand a chance in turning it around.

[winseer]

If even Osbourne and Carney are warning of “trouble ahead” right now - then we have to assume that Farage’s confidence of late is all about “the time between now and the end of 2017 is a one way ticket DOWN” and the “In” camp argument is soon to be killed off once and for all.

Even the europhile business leaders - won’t be so much in favour of “staying in” - if the exchange rate is no longer favourable one way or another - or even if quite simply the trade is too one-sided. “The EU customers are broke, so all that’s happening trade-wise - is the UK citizen paying through the nose at a artificially high Euro exchange rate for stuff they’ve had to borrow heavily to afford”…

For the UK to benefit from EU trade - we really need to be selling at top dollar prices - more to them than they are selling at cheapo prices to us.

That needs a stronger pound vs the Euro.

There has been a concerted effort of late to weaken the pound, and strengthen the argument for “staying in”.
Without such “effort” on the forex markets - the Euro would be on the slide due to years now of poor performance it it’s many disparate economies, whilst Germany as perhaps the only one gaining financially - loses out politically in other ways related to “open door immigration”.

The daft thing is that if the pound/euro were NOT being tampered with - our argument and benefit from staying exactly as we are re the EU - would be strengthened.
I believe therefore that it is Germany’s intent to not only “keep us in by whatever means necessary” - but to also encourage FURTHER integration, including “joining the Euro”.

Now… With that latter point in mind - it makes perfect sense to launch a prolonged bear attack on the UK by selling Sterling reserves for Euros. It makes it seem that “each day we umm and ahh about it makes our economy go into deeper crisis…” Actually it’ll end up doing no such thing. Other countries in the world with cash to spare right now - are eyeing things up over here at what is now for them a rather favourable exchange rate - thanks very much.

Cameron ends up backdooring the right answer for now then. “I can wait until the end of 2017” he says.

He’s probably going to end up doing just that too. It doesn’t really matter what mood the country is in exactly by the end of 2017 - he’ll just bet on the winner at that stage - providing of course there IS one.
The “worst scenario” for him is if the country is still neither here nor there as to “what it wants to do”. I suggest we need to be 75/25 either way at least. 55/45 like in the Scottish referendum by this point - would be a total disaster for the Conservatives.

Watch the price on the betting exchanges for the current mood. Today’s price is 65/35 in favour of staying IN. (1.5 decimal “to stay in”, 2-1 “getting out”)

That will need to improve to 75/25 then (should be easy if that’s an accurate measure - right?) or flip the other way - should prices slide that other way, as they did in the run-up to the Scottish referendum…

[boredwivdrivin]

""Brussels on Wednesday threatened to stop Britain deporting migrants unless it agreed to accept “quotas” of migrants, something which could see the UK forced to admit 90,000 refugees.

If Britain refuses to accept the quota, the EU has said the UK will no longer be able to use the Dublin Regulation - the rule which states that migrants must seek asylum in the first European country they arrive - to deport foreigners illegally entering the country.
Senior Conservatives warned that there will be “chaos” in Calais because the changes to EU rules would create a “fast track for migrants” trying to enter the UK.
There were also warnings that the EU rule change could see thousands more migrants attempting to make the journey to the UK because there will be no chance of them being deported. “”

telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne … itain.html

as if this isnt bad enough i watched a program “uk borders” or something .

it shows that if an illegal migrant loses their passport they cannot be deported .

so if we do manage to get out of EU the chances of slinging all the rombulpolhuns out on their ear will depend on them keeping their passport .

or we will be stuck with them

[winseer]

Even if we voted 100/0 to leave the EU - it wouldn’t happen quick enough to make a difference by this point. May 7th 2015 was the one chance we had of putting UKIP into Coalition with the Tories, and that would have meant having the referendum before Christmas of last year, and having our borders closed by new year in quick response to what’s going on that would otherwise still have occurred.

British anarchists led violence in Calais and defaced statue

We’re “drawing dead” now.

[carryfast]

Winseer:
Even if we voted 100/0 to leave the EU - it wouldn’t happen quick enough to make a difference by this point. May 7th 2015 was the one chance we had of putting UKIP into Coalition with the Tories, and that would have meant having the referendum before Christmas of last year, and having our borders closed by new year in quick response to what’s going on that would otherwise still have occurred.

British anarchists led violence in Calais and defaced statue of de Gaulle | Daily Mail Online

We’re “drawing dead” now.

The problem of non EU immigration trying to invade from Calais is more about the Socialist and cheap labour agenda within our own borders than EU membership.We don’t need to leave the EU to impose a policy of summary re patriation of all illegal immigrants.

[dolph]

What actually the British Government wants?

1. Ability to fast track UK into TTIP. End of all social niceties the UK and EU had fought for - healthcare, food and environmental safety, privacy, democracy ?
2. Opt out of social policies like, no cap on working hours.
3. Opt out of CHR, so no recourse to a higher court.
4. Cameron support continued enlargement of the EU to new members but with new mechanisms in place to “prevent vast migrations across the Continent”.
5. Restricting benefits of young Brits, blaming EU migration for it.

bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32695399

independent.co.uk/voices/com … 79688.html

[tommy_t]

Ability to fast track UK into TTIP. End of all social niceties the UK and EU had fought for - healthcare, food and environmental safety, privacy, democracy

That TTIP we do not want , but last heard on it it includes the EU ,The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a major new deal being negotiated behind closed doors between the EU and USA.The tories i doubt/hope will not be in office long enough or we wont be in the EU by then

We need to be rid of the EU dictatorship, that wants to control our borders, and how these fake refugees are treated , that is wrong we as a country should control those things without the pro migration EU interfering , I’m like many people sick of some Richard head in Brussels telling us what to do , we did not elect them or vote for them, how is this democratic?

On the other side of the coin we need to prevent our governments from removing our rights to information , to be able to hold them to account ect ect, FOI requests should not be restricted, our privacy rights must not be further eroded under the guise of prevention of terrorism ( new proposed snooping laws )

[mazzer]

Dolph:
What actually the British Government wants?

1. Ability to fast track UK into TTIP. End of all social niceties the UK and EU had fought for - healthcare, food and environmental safety, privacy, democracy ?
2. Opt out of social policies like, no cap on working hours.
3. Opt out of CHR, so no recourse to a higher court.
4. Cameron support continued enlargement of the EU to new members but with new mechanisms in place to “prevent vast migrations across the Continent”.
5. Restricting benefits of young Brits, blaming EU migration for it.

bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32695399

independent.co.uk/voices/com … 79688.html

Dolph getting an insight in to the Conservatives aims from the Independent and the BBC are never going to be positive you need to look at all the press and go somewhere down the middle, neither of the two outlets you have referenced are ever going to put a view across that isn’t left of centre.

[immigrant]

But then,…
How many great British Companies in European Hands?

DHL
Norbert desentrance
Thames Water, and wots more?

[winseer]

Immigrant:
But then,…
How many great British Companies in European Hands?

DHL
Norbert desentrance
Thames Water, and wots more?

Nobbies has been bought lock,stock, and two smoking artics - by American outfit XPO.

America - doesn’t let foreigners buy it’s businesses - unless they are losing loads of money and have serious shop-floor Union issues.
Look at what happened to the American dock companies, and Bethlehem Steel (also a shipbuilder) - all now in the hands of the likes of the Arab states and Mittal…
Talk about “putting the fox in charge of the henhouse”!

When was the last time a profitable American firm was subject to a successful hostile takeover from a foreign firm? - “Mergers” don’t count.

[dolph]

Carryfast was talking that EU would’t dare a trade war with UK. Others said UK will get all the advantages and non of the disadvantages from leaving EU.
Yeah, right.

Britain should be punished by its European partners if it votes to leave the EU in order to discourage other countries from leaving, former European ministers have said.
The Polish former deputy prime minister Leszek Balcerowicz said Britain would be used as example. “We should not encourage other populist forces campaigning on exit such as National Front in France or Podemos in Spain. This is a very important consideration. This is in the interests of Europe that we do not encourage other EU countries to leave. The common interest of remaining members is to deter other exits. This should have an impact on the terms Britain gets.”

Britain was also warned it would not be able to cherry-pick its best deals, and might find UK citizens inside the EU at a serious disadvantage with questionable legal status. “There is no such thing as a free lunch. Brexit is something which does not only affect your country but our country,” the former German deputy finance minister Steffen Kampeter warned. “The cherry-picking after torturing us for months is not acceptable.”

The former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta said Italy would support moving Europe’s financial centre away from London, adding that Europe could not afford such navel-gazing at a time when other parts of the world were forging ahead.

France’s former Europe minister Noëlle Lenoir said the opportunity to move the EU’s financial centre from London would be a blessing. All existing European court rulings that have protected the British banks would be obsolete, she said. Others predicted efforts would be made to woo Scotland to remain in the EU and peel away from the UK.

theguardian.com/world/2016/j … ther-exits

[gazsa401]

Dolph:
Carryfast was talking that EU would’t dare a trade war with UK. Others said UK will get all the advantages and non of the disadvantages from leaving EU.
Yeah, right.

Britain should be punished by its European partners if it votes to leave the EU in order to discourage other countries from leaving, former European ministers have said.
The Polish former deputy prime minister Leszek Balcerowicz said Britain would be used as example. “We should not encourage other populist forces campaigning on exit such as National Front in France or Podemos in Spain. This is a very important consideration. This is in the interests of Europe that we do not encourage other EU countries to leave. The common interest of remaining members is to deter other exits. This should have an impact on the terms Britain gets.”

Britain was also warned it would not be able to cherry-pick its best deals, and might find UK citizens inside the EU at a serious disadvantage with questionable legal status. “There is no such thing as a free lunch. Brexit is something which does not only affect your country but our country,” the former German deputy finance minister Steffen Kampeter warned. “The cherry-picking after torturing us for months is not acceptable.”

The former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta said Italy would support moving Europe’s financial centre away from London, adding that Europe could not afford such navel-gazing at a time when other parts of the world were forging ahead.

France’s former Europe minister Noëlle Lenoir said the opportunity to move the EU’s financial centre from London would be a blessing. All existing European court rulings that have protected the British banks would be obsolete, she said. Others predicted efforts would be made to woo Scotland to remain in the EU and peel away from the UK.

theguardian.com/world/2016/j … ther-exits

Who gives a monkies what other countries think ■■?
Has for Germany the UK is their biggest market for German built cars
Poland are worried because most of the Poles here in the UK send back the benefits they receive to Poland to subsidise the Polish economy
Spain is a basket case country that relies heavily on the British for their tourism industry
All your unproven facts are worthless
The fact is the EU needs the UK more than we need the EU
All the scaremongering comes down to the fact that the EU is going to lose its cash cow

[dolph]

gazsa401:

Dolph:
Carryfast was talking that EU would’t dare a trade war with UK. Others said UK will get all the advantages and non of the disadvantages from leaving EU.
Yeah, right.

Britain should be punished by its European partners if it votes to leave the EU in order to discourage other countries from leaving, former European ministers have said.
The Polish former deputy prime minister Leszek Balcerowicz said Britain would be used as example. “We should not encourage other populist forces campaigning on exit such as National Front in France or Podemos in Spain. This is a very important consideration. This is in the interests of Europe that we do not encourage other EU countries to leave. The common interest of remaining members is to deter other exits. This should have an impact on the terms Britain gets.”

Britain was also warned it would not be able to cherry-pick its best deals, and might find UK citizens inside the EU at a serious disadvantage with questionable legal status. “There is no such thing as a free lunch. Brexit is something which does not only affect your country but our country,” the former German deputy finance minister Steffen Kampeter warned. “The cherry-picking after torturing us for months is not acceptable.”

The former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta said Italy would support moving Europe’s financial centre away from London, adding that Europe could not afford such navel-gazing at a time when other parts of the world were forging ahead.

France’s former Europe minister Noëlle Lenoir said the opportunity to move the EU’s financial centre from London would be a blessing. All existing European court rulings that have protected the British banks would be obsolete, she said. Others predicted efforts would be made to woo Scotland to remain in the EU and peel away from the UK.

theguardian.com/world/2016/j … ther-exits

1.Who gives a monkies what other countries think ■■?
2.Has for Germany the UK is their biggest market for German built cars
3.Poland are worried because most of the Poles here in the UK send back the benefits they receive to Poland to subsidise the Polish economy
4.Spain is a basket case country that relies heavily on the British for their tourism industry
5.All your unproven facts are worthless
6.The fact is the EU needs the UK more than we need the EU
7.All the scaremongering comes down to the fact that the EU is going to lose its cash cow

1. Apparently your PM, thats why he circles all over EU to beg for a deal that no one wants. Screwing all of us by demanding change in fundamental principles of the Union instead of appointing referendum date.
2. Yeah, like Germany cant sell them to someone else, what you gonna do without European cars, walk? You like European stuff more then anyone else.
3. No they are not, because benefits from UK going into Poland are a joke amount. And its not Poland or any other country fault that your benefit system is archaic and down to earth idiotic.
4. No they don’t, no one care about your alcohol and drug abusing youth you call tourists.
5. They are not my facts, but EU politicians statements and are worth looking into them, because you economy will suffer more then anyone else.
6. No, you rely on EU more, without EU your economy will be a joke, thats why you were begging to join 40 years ago, because your economy was crap back in the day. And back then you had some manufacturing left from the British Empire, what do you have now(79% of UK GDP is made by services, not manufacturing, finance being on top)? After Brexit people, capital and jobs will move out, no free trade with EU, no free access to ports, your work rights will depend on Westminster and the greedy politicians. UK Gov. will import cheap labor for their friends in big business and British people will be even more screwed.
   How you gonna travel, work and live in EU post Brexit, any thoughts?
7. Cash cow thanks to EU, lets see how much cash you gonna have saving the 10 billion pounds you pay into EU post exit.

P.S. No one is stopping you to trade with countries around the world today, but I doubt you gonna have preferential tariff’s with US or other countries, simply because you are not gonna be the gateway to EU anymore.
Its gonna take you 10 years to negotiate the trade agreements EU had made with other countries. And thats not scaremongering but a simple truth.

[winseer]

All arguments about “Britain makes £££££’s from being in the EU” assume that:-

(1) We’d lose ALL of that if we left
(2) We’d have ANY of that taken away if we left
(3) That (1) and (2) could happen without WWIII in Europe commencing in a similar way to WWI just over a century ago.

Relax.

We’d only be worse off out of the EU - if we end up going to war over it.
Who is even implying that “this has a real DEFCON chance” right now?

[carryfast]

Winseer:
All arguments about “Britain makes £££££’s from being in the EU” assume that:-

(1) We’d lose ALL of that if we left
(2) We’d have ANY of that taken away if we left
(3) That (1) and (2) could happen without WWIII in Europe commencing in a similar way to WWI just over a century ago.

Relax.

We’d only be worse off out of the EU - if we end up going to war over it.
Who is even implying that “this has a real DEFCON chance” right now?

There’s more chance of condemning future generations to a war of secession v Federal dictatorship by zb’s like those saying we should be ‘punished’ for defying the latest Stasi instigated directives on us.

As for losing £££’s what £££’s do we stand to lose from a position of trade deficit and net contributions to the scam.

[carryfast]

Dolph:
Carryfast was talking that EU would’t dare a trade war with UK. Others said UK will get all the advantages and non of the disadvantages from leaving EU.
Yeah, right.

Britain should be punished by its European partners if it votes to leave the EU in order to discourage other countries from leaving, former European ministers have said.
The Polish former deputy prime minister Leszek Balcerowicz said Britain would be used as example.

Given a better government,rather than the present grovelling bunch of tossers like Camoron,that would be regarded as foreign interference,in the internal government and affairs,of a sovereign country.In which case we’re out as of midnight tonight no ifs no buts and more importantly no zb referendum.With the military put on alert to meet what could very well be a commy stasi plot of infiltration.Bearing in mind Merkel’s and Balcerowicz’s history.In this case not knowing the zb my initial suspicions that he might be another one of ‘her zb lot’ was then confirmed.IE what a surprise a Marxist/Bolshevik member of the zb Polish Communist Party.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leszek_Ba … #Biography

Which would obviously fit in perfectly with Merkel’s invasion of Western Europe by her Syrian etc allies.On that note it’s unbelievable that MI5 and the CIA seem to be blindly betting the future of the freedom of the western world on the idea that a Leopard can change its spots.As opposed to Infiltration being the most well known MO for the spread of Socialism.

[boredwivdrivin]

Immigrant:
But then,…
How many great British Companies in European Hands?

DHL
Norbert desentrance
Thames Water, and wots more?

we have an open economy and have done for decades . these companies will go where profits are good .

its the EU rules and immigrants that will be banned , not investment .

besides these are all service companies , they dont fundamentally create wealth .

if DHL slings it hook ( no bad thing in my book ) is sainsburys or jag land rover going to cease trading just because one of its transport service providers goes home ■■?

i think not

[boredwivdrivin]

Carryfast:
Marxist/Bolshevik … Polish Communist …

Socialism.

"Revolutionaries debated the political situation and how to shape it at the 2016 Socialist Workers Party conference "

""The EU is connected to the neoliberal capitalist order.”

Conference voted overwhelmingly to support a left-wing, internationalist, anti-racist vote to leave in the EU referendum.“”"

socialistworker.co.uk/art/41965 … Corbyn+win

yup the dear old Socialist Worker Party has voted to campaign to leave Europe at its 2016 conference .

so hopes we will hear a little less about socialist conspiracies in future

[boredwivdrivin]

Dolph:
…

The Polish former deputy prime minister Leszek Balcerowicz said Britain would be used as example. “We should not encourage other populist forces campaigning on exit such as National Front in France or Podemos in Spain. This is a very important consideration.
…
This is in the interests of Europe that we do not encourage other EU countries to leave. The common interest of remaining members is to deter other exits. This should have an impact on the terms Britain gets.”

yup they are all running ■■■■ scared !! the whole crock of ■■■ will hopefully implode .

but , if the polish want to save EU there is only 1 option …

to form a bloc with all the other socially and economically backward ex soviet countries and withdraw their memberships together .

they can then form a ‘second world’ union and have all the freedoms to travel they wish . perhaps get ukraine and turkey in too .

lovely .

heres what the present polish gov thinks :

""The European Union may collapse if Britain leaves, the Polish president has warned, as he called for a “cautious compromise” on David Cameron’s demands for reform.
“It is not in Poland’s interest that the UK leaves the European Union. We think it would lead to a big crisis and even a collapse if the UK left,” said Andrzej Duda, who took office in August. “”

telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop … oland.html

heres what the dutch and french think :

""EU could go UNDER in 6 WEEKS, Dutch PM claims as France admits ‘we weren’t built for this’

THE Dutch prime minister said the future of the European Union could be decided in just six weeks if the bloc doesn’t get a handle on the migrant crisis, as panicking France begs Britain to stay in the union.“”

express.co.uk/news/politics/ … it-tragedy

im not sure how well the Bulgari will get on , claiming their EU rights when England gives the middle finger …

but im sure u will have fun finding out !

Ha hAA haa HAR HAR

[carryfast]

boredwivdrivin:

Carryfast:
Marxist/Bolshevik … Polish Communist …

Socialism.

"Revolutionaries debated the political situation and how to shape it at the 2016 Socialist Workers Party conference "

""The EU is connected to the neoliberal capitalist order.”

Conference voted overwhelmingly to support a left-wing, internationalist, anti-racist vote to leave in the EU referendum.“”"

socialistworker.co.uk/art/41965 … Corbyn+win

yup the dear old Socialist Worker Party has voted to campaign to leave Europe at its 2016 conference .

so hopes we will hear a little less about socialist conspiracies in future

If the CIA and MI5 are stupid enough to think that Merkel and Balcerowicz are reformed ex Stasi and ex Polish Communist/Bolshevik Capitalists sure as the Pope is a Catholic those even stupider SWP zbwits are stupid enough to think so too.Unless the atheistic zb’s have infiltrated the CIA and MI5 and Catholic Church too ( who knows ).

In either case they obviously still wouldn’t trust the intelligence of the SWP enough to let them in on the plan.