Winseer:
If the economy improves for rank and file workers - chances are we’ll stay in. No one rocks the boat when it’s plain sailing. You don’t talk in the condemned cell of “rope” either, mind.We lose money to the EU. As long as individuals don’t “feel like they are losing” - they’ll be happy to continue doing the same.
At street level - the type of person who’ll vote “Stay in the EU” is the same type of person who thinks you can win money when you buy a scratchcard.
“One in five wins - that’s a real chance!” they’ll bleat…How many tickets before you get a real win though? - one that leaves you ahead over what you’ve spent so far… my definition of winning…
Buy 10 tickets = win £20 on one of them… YES that would be a win - if only it had a real chance of happening.
Buy 10 tickets and have two of them win £1 (the real meaning of “1 in five wins”) - That’s “stealth losing” as I’ve described above.No statistics are available as to “what’s the chance of getting a winning ticket” - if “wins” of upto double the ticket price were all excluded…
I suspect it’s something like “one in 548” of getting a £20 winner - put if that way.
Tell a person who’s buying scratchcards that they are donking money away - and they won’t believe you.
Tell that same person we’ll be better off leaving the EU - and they probably won’t believe that either.
Therein lies Cameron’s best chance of winning the referendum. It only remains for it to be held at the “right time of the economic cycle” then.
Cameron’s already playing that card for all it’s worth anyway.IE those who think that their living standards and prosperity depend on continued membership of the EU won’t change that view regardless of downturns or upturns.They’ll just think that any downturn would be worse ‘if’ we aren’t in it.While ignoring inconvenient facts like trade deficit and net contributions and Federal rule by people like Merkel.The fact is there’s very little room for Cameron to be relying on any large scale potential swing vote because the issues are already there and entrenched in the opposing sides.
On that note Farage seems more relaxed and confident than Cameron.Probably on the basis of realistically the country is probably already a lost cause that isn’t worth bothering too much about.But if we win that’s a bonus and we might then stand a chance in turning it around.