BREXIT.

[wheelnutt]

Carryfast:

wheelnutt:

Dolph:
Pound slumps to 168-year low

ft.com/content/78478eee-e17 … 8a98f2f9bd

We are only just getting started, you just wait to see what happens once we trigger article 50.

Of course I am just scare mongering.

Project fear is now project reality, only just a little bit worse and that much faster.

Everything is going up in price and we haven’t left yet, you just imagine what is going to happen when we have to start paying import duties.

As for 168 years.An explanation as to it’s value over the last 10 years as an EU member state v its value in 1960-70 would be good.IE more remain campaign lies and bs in the hope of over turning a democratic decision which has already been made.

As for import duties yes just imagine it.Crashing sales of German imports in favour of domestically made products.Who is the loser in that.

Domestically produced products that see an increase in raw material cost of 20-30%, yup that will work just fine.

Domestic produced/grown commodities have seen a price increase of 20% also. UK Wheat right before the referendum 115 quid, UK wheat today, 135.50.

[carryfast]

The-Snowman:

Carryfast:
Firstly I never said that they would ‘wish us well’.The point is if they want a trade war just because we want to secede from their zb Federalist dream now why would you want to condemn future generations to that type of relationship.

I never said you personally had said theyd wish us well but when ever I brought up about them blocking trade deals etc, you were incredibly cocksure about how they didnt have a leg to stand on and we would control what happened. You were under the impression they could seethe all they wanted but there was nothing they could do about it. I always knew it would not be so easy

Carryfast:
Let me guess you’re one of those who isn’t up for the trade war that it will take and that we actually need and can only win.

BZZZZZZZZZ, wrong. Do you want to try for double jeopardy where the stakes can really be interesting?

As I said how do we possibly lose in a situation in which they hit our fewer exports to them with tarrifs and we hit their massively more exports to us with quotas in return.Thereby creating a protected domestic market for domestic producers which more than compensates for any supposed lost exports.

[wheelnutt]

OVLOV JAY:
And in that 168 years it’s dropped from 5 to today’s value. Substantial drops since the 70’s. Maybe because the yank economy is stronger than ours and the eu It drops year on year, but fluctuates month to month. If it went from 1.49 to 1.22 in a day, I’d agree with you. But it’s taken almost 4 months to get there, oh, and it went back to 1.23 by close of business, so I’d say that’s fluctuated. And if you check back through the years, the exchange rate was well above 2 in 2007, and we’re all still here, eating well, driving nice cars, wearing nice clothes and enjoying nice holidays. Pretty sure the uk isn’t going to crumble into the sea anytime soon.

The day of Brexit the pound dropped from 1.50108 to 1.32125 That is a 13% drop in a day, since then it has kept going and today we are at 1.22435, it has recovered slightly but that is a total drop of 22.6%, that is greater then the drop we saw in 1987 or during the financial crash in 2006.

There is no glossing this over, the facts are right in front of everyone to see.

[the-snowman]

Carryfast:
As I said how do we possibly lose in a situation in which they hit our fewer exports to them with tarrifs and we hit their massively more exports to us with quotas in return.Thereby creating a protected domestic market for domestic producers which more than compensates for any supposed lost exports.

Sounds a bit like cutting off your nose to spite your face to me. In my opinion, you hit the exports with huge tarrifs, they stop buying them. Hit their imports to us with quotas, the price rises due to shortage. Im no economist but that sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.
I think our PM is going about it the right way. Try to do things as amicable as possible rather than “■■■■ with us and we’ll ■■■■ with you” mentality.

[wheelnutt]

Carryfast:

The-Snowman:

Carryfast:
Firstly I never said that they would ‘wish us well’.The point is if they want a trade war just because we want to secede from their zb Federalist dream now why would you want to condemn future generations to that type of relationship.

I never said you personally had said theyd wish us well but when ever I brought up about them blocking trade deals etc, you were incredibly cocksure about how they didnt have a leg to stand on and we would control what happened. You were under the impression they could seethe all they wanted but there was nothing they could do about it. I always knew it would not be so easy

Carryfast:
Let me guess you’re one of those who isn’t up for the trade war that it will take and that we actually need and can only win.

BZZZZZZZZZ, wrong. Do you want to try for double jeopardy where the stakes can really be interesting?

As I said how do we possibly lose in a situation in which they hit our fewer exports to them with tarrifs and we hit their massively more exports to us with quotas in return.Thereby creating a protected domestic market for domestic producers which more than compensates for any supposed lost exports.

Here we go again, the total export to the UK from the EU is 2.8% as of GDP and from Germany it is 3.8%, we on the other hand import 60% of our raw materials and 80% of our food and retail. Who do you think is really going to get hurt.

The Germans will be just fine, they have 2 years or so to find other markets for their cars and stuff, easily done. We are going to get hammered for our import by a crashing pound and duties on top of that.

The Germans will laugh at us all the way to the bank, who cares about 3%. We should start worrying that all our imports are going up by 20% as of today and a heck of a lot more in the coming months. That is what kills an economy, the cost of raw materials going up, we can’t do without, we can do without a few mercs and beemers.

[ovlov_jay]

I’m not glossing anything. Our economy was doomed the day we started outsourcing for essentials. Like I said, it was 5-1 once. You can’t run a country on nothing but financial markets and expect to live forever. Cash is king, and once it’s too expensive to import, some entrepreneurs will see gaps in the market and we’ll start producing here again. Some people make it sound like our limbs have been cut off. We’re perfectly capable of doing for ourselves

[wheelnutt]

OVLOV JAY:
I’m not glossing anything. Our economy was doomed the day we started outsourcing for essentials. Like I said, it was 5-1 once. You can’t run a country on nothing but financial markets and expect to live forever. Cash is king, and once it’s too expensive to import, some entrepreneurs will see gaps in the market and we’ll start producing here again. Some people make it sound like our limbs have been cut off. We’re perfectly capable of doing for ourselves

Fine produce here all you want, the raw material cost is till going up by 20%, even the ones found/dug up here, it is all priced in dollars or tied to the dollar, worldwide.

A farmer in the Lake district sells his barley in dollars to a bakery in leeds. That is the globally connected world and unless you want us to retreat inward as Zimbabwe or North Korea whether you like it or not we are still connected and the UK may be an island but we are still dependant on global fluctuations in price.

We just shot ourselves in the foot by devaluing our currency at a rate normally reserved for emerging economies, not for a Western country.

[carryfast]

wheelnutt:

Carryfast:

wheelnutt:

Dolph:
Pound slumps to 168-year low

ft.com/content/78478eee-e17 … 8a98f2f9bd

We are only just getting started, you just wait to see what happens once we trigger article 50.

Of course I am just scare mongering.

Project fear is now project reality, only just a little bit worse and that much faster.

Everything is going up in price and we haven’t left yet, you just imagine what is going to happen when we have to start paying import duties.

As for 168 years.An explanation as to it’s value over the last 10 years as an EU member state v its value in 1960-70 would be good.IE more remain campaign lies and bs in the hope of over turning a democratic decision which has already been made.

As for import duties yes just imagine it.Crashing sales of German imports in favour of domestically made products.Who is the loser in that.

Domestically produced products that see an increase in raw material cost of 20-30%, yup that will work just fine.

Domestic produced/grown commodities have seen a price increase of 20% also. UK Wheat right before the referendum 115 quid, UK wheat today, 135.50.

If as you say all this is supposedly caused by Brexit we’d have expected to see the same issues before we joined.In which case how do you explain a value of 2.5 Swiss Francs to the pound then and none of those issues applying.While if it’s all supposedly about the pound then we’d obviously expect to see wage increases stabilise that situation with the win win of a protected economy regarding value added finished products.While the Krauts are left with the problem of looking after Greece and all the other EU no hopers without our net contributions or net import of German products.

While the fact is Brexit is being used as a scapegoat to cover the structural problems in the economy ‘caused’ by EU membership.In which case Brexit is a win win situation for us.

[ovlov_jay]

It’s a big wide world out there. If the raw materials have to come from Asia, India, America or anywhere it’ll come down to the cheapest on the day. Same as it always has. Or we could all hope for an ideal world where all the conglomerates swallow a 5% rise in there profits. After all, it’s better to drop from 5 mil to 4.75 and still trade, than watch a rival whose happy with 3 take your business. At the end of the day, it’s the simplest and oldest rule of economics. When it’s too expensive, people won’t buy it. Then you either take a slight dip, or take your ball home. And the one thing the rich like doing best is making as much money as possible. At the moment it’s possible to make x, in the future it will be y. They will adapt and survive as we all will, because nobody wants to take their ball home. Remember, the dollar was 2.30 in 2007, and I don’t know anyone living any differently now than they did then.

[wheelnutt]

Carryfast:
If as you say all this is supposedly caused by Brexit we’d have expected to see the same issues before we joined.In which case how do you explain a value of 2.5 Swiss Francs to the pound then and none of those issues applying.While if it’s all supposedly about the pound then we’d obviously expect to see wage increases stabilise that situation with the win win of a protected economy regarding value added finished products.While the Krauts are left with the problem of looking after Greece and all the other EU no hopers without our net contributions or net import of German products.

While the fact is Brexit is being used as a scapegoat to cover the structural problems in the economy ‘caused’ by EU membership.In which case Brexit is a win win situation for us.

You live in cuckoo land CF. You can’t see what is right in front of you. We may well be an island we don’t operate in isolation.

[carryfast]

The-Snowman:

Carryfast:
As I said how do we possibly lose in a situation in which they hit our fewer exports to them with tarrifs and we hit their massively more exports to us with quotas in return.Thereby creating a protected domestic market for domestic producers which more than compensates for any supposed lost exports.

Sounds a bit like cutting off your nose to spite your face to me. In my opinion, you hit the exports with huge tarrifs, they stop buying them. Hit their imports to us with quotas, the price rises due to shortage. Im no economist but that sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.
I think our PM is going about it the right way. Try to do things as amicable as possible rather than “[zb] with us and we’ll [zb] with you” mentality.

It’s ‘them’ who want to start a trade war buy hitting ‘our’ few ‘exports’ ‘to’ ‘them’ with tarrifs for the crime of secession.In which case how is ‘retaliating’ in the form of quotas on ‘their’ ‘exports’ ‘to’ ‘us’ supposedly cutting off ‘our’ nose to spite ‘our’ face.It won’t cause shortages it will just create pressures for domestic industry to meet the shortfall in German imports.How do we supposedly lose in that trading environment.

[wheelnutt]

OVLOV JAY:
It’s a big wide world out there. If the raw materials have to come from Asia, India, America or anywhere it’ll come down to the cheapest on the day. Same as it always has. Or we could all hope for an ideal world where all the conglomerates swallow a 5% rise in there profits. After all, it’s better to drop from 5 mil to 4.75 and still trade, than watch a rival whose happy with 3 take your business. At the end of the day, it’s the simplest and oldest rule of economics. When it’s too expensive, people won’t buy it. Then you either take a slight dip, or take your ball home. And the one thing the rich like doing best is making as much money as possible. At the moment it’s possible to make x, in the future it will be y. They will adapt and survive as we all will, because nobody wants to take their ball home. Remember, the dollar was 2.30 in 2007, and I don’t know anyone living any differently now than they did then.

Your basics, your food, your clothing, your shelter, your transportation is going up massively because our pound as of today buys 20% less of it, this has nothing to do with getting it cheaper from Asia, their prices have gone up too when paying for it in Pounds.

No company is going to operate at a loss so you can still pay the same price for a pair of jeans or a loaf of bread, both of which have gone up in price. We are not seeing it yet as companies are selling down inventory and the larger ones still have currency hedges, once they expire the crap is going to hit the fan.

Fuel going up by 8p this week and next, what is that going to do to the bottom line of your employer, think you are going to get a pay rise while the basics are all going up in price by 10-20%, guess again.

[wheelnutt]

Carryfast:

The-Snowman:

Carryfast:
As I said how do we possibly lose in a situation in which they hit our fewer exports to them with tarrifs and we hit their massively more exports to us with quotas in return.Thereby creating a protected domestic market for domestic producers which more than compensates for any supposed lost exports.

Sounds a bit like cutting off your nose to spite your face to me. In my opinion, you hit the exports with huge tarrifs, they stop buying them. Hit their imports to us with quotas, the price rises due to shortage. Im no economist but that sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.
I think our PM is going about it the right way. Try to do things as amicable as possible rather than “[zb] with us and we’ll [zb] with you” mentality.

It’s ‘them’ who want to start a trade war buy hitting ‘our’ few ‘exports’ ‘to’ ‘them’ with tarrifs for the crime of secession.In which case how is ‘retaliating’ in the form of quotas on ‘their’ ‘exports’ ‘to’ ‘us’ supposedly cutting off ‘our’ nose to spite ‘our’ face.It won’t cause shortages it will just create pressures for domestic industry to meet the shortfall in German imports.How do we supposedly lose in that trading environment.

You still don’t get it, it is not them doing anything to us, it is us doing it to ourselves. Any domestic industry that you think is going to meet the shortfall is going to see an increase of 20% in their cost of raw materials, whether imported or produced domestically.

You are still having this notion that it is us and them, it isn’t, this is all of our own doing, they are doing nothing to us, WE are creating this, WE caused this for ourselves.

Nobody needs to start a trade war, our pound devalued as of the vote, we just shot ourselves in the food. We are an importing nation, have a look around your house and see where everything comes from, all of that is going up in price rapidly and lots of it we could never produce.

Fuel is going through the roof, transporting all of those more expensively produced goods is going to cost a lot more. You can’t just snap your fingers and produce things domestically, that is never going to happen.

We are dependant on international trade and with the pound crashing we made it that much harder, we desperately need a good deal, they don’t.

You can tell by the change of tone in Europe, they are seeing what this is doing to us, we need them more now then ever, the worse the deal, the harder the Brexit the worse it is for us, not for them, they will be ok. They didn’t see their cost of everything going up by 20%, we did.

You may well not care CF if you have a few hundred K in the bank and no mortgage, for the majority of people, 17 million as a matter of fact, they only have 100 quid left at the end of the month after all the bills are paid, they are the ones who are really going to get hurt in all of this, that 100 quid won’t go far if everything goes up by 20%, just so we don’t have to worry about Federalist■■? Really? Bloody Federalist again?

[carryfast]

wheelnutt:

Carryfast:
If as you say all this is supposedly caused by Brexit we’d have expected to see the same issues before we joined.In which case how do you explain a value of 2.5 Swiss Francs to the pound then and none of those issues applying.While if it’s all supposedly about the pound then we’d obviously expect to see wage increases stabilise that situation with the win win of a protected economy regarding value added finished products.While the Krauts are left with the problem of looking after Greece and all the other EU no hopers without our net contributions or net import of German products.

While the fact is Brexit is being used as a scapegoat to cover the structural problems in the economy ‘caused’ by EU membership.In which case Brexit is a win win situation for us.

You live in cuckoo land CF. You can’t see what is right in front of you. We may well be an island we don’t operate in isolation.

No surprise in typical remainer style you haven’t answered the inconvenient questions how do you explain the value of the pound pre EEC/EU membership v post.While if it’s just a case of a fall in the value of the pound why did you seem to conveniently leave out wage increases in line with the fall.

As opposed to the reality of Brexit being used as a scapegoat by the remainers for an economy which started sinking and has been sinking since we joined the scam,in the hope that it will be enough to over turn the referendum vote.In which the ever reducing buying power of wages in treal terms and as a result savers being scammed to keep the economy afloat v the ever increasing but hidden rate of inflation,says everything about the EU being about what’s good for Germany.

[ovlov_jay]

It’s all a question of spin. We can sit here all night arguing about it. The remain side will push their narrative and Brexit likewise. Companies can pass the 20% straight to the consumer, but apart from railways there is always a choice. One maverick will drop their profit by that 20%, and they’ll Hoover up all the business and make a ■■■■ load. Then everyone else will follow suit before they go bust. When companies work on upwards of 40% profit, they have the room to manoeuvre. They’re naturally trying to pass the cost on, like Unilever are trying, until it hits a point of stalemate. What then, pack up? Or drop to a level people will pay. It’s all about finding the common ground. I think realistically the consumer is looking at a 10% load up over the next year. The rest being met by manufacturers and retailers.

[wheelnutt]

OVLOV JAY:
I think realistically the consumer is looking at a 10% load up over the next year. The rest being met by manufacturers and retailers.

How many people do your think can comfortably handle a 10% jump in their cost of living? I mentioned in an earlier post 17 million working people, that is half of the working population have less than a 100 quid left at the end of the month, they couldn’t handle a 10% increase in their cost of living, they would have to do without certain things.

You may well be just OK, you may not have a mortgage anymore and plenty of cash in the bank, half the working population don’t have that luxury, they will be a lot worse off to get rid of CF’s Federalists.

You are a box jockey, that is a sector of transport that is going to get hit hard, you guys work on tiny margins and are very dependant on cheap imports, you are getting hit from both ends, your margins are eroded by the increase in fuel costs and the demand for cheap tat will go down significantly, the majority of people will just worry about a roof over their head and food on the table, cheap Chinese tat is the last on their shopping list.

Lots of raw materials come from overseas in boxes too, that is going up by 20%, making lots of products unnecessary luxuries.

This isn’t spin, these are cold hard facts. This has nothing to do with a lofty goal or idea for a referendum, this is the morning after. This is what we have to live with, these are the consequences of lies and scare mongering.

We are living the facts, there is no two ways about it, everything around us, everything we eat, wear, use, need is going up in price. Your pain threshold may well be 10%, others may be at 20%, but I bet you a months’ income that the majority out there couldn’t even handle 5%

[the-snowman]

wheelnutt:
I mentioned in an earlier post 17 million working people, that is half of the working population have less than a 100 quid left at the end of the month

wheelnutt:
the demand for cheap tat will go down significantly,

Sounds more like the demand for cheap stuff will increase!

[carryfast]

OVLOV JAY:
It’s all a question of spin. We can sit here all night arguing about it. The remain side will push their narrative and Brexit likewise. Companies can pass the 20% straight to the consumer, but apart from railways there is always a choice. One maverick will drop their profit by that 20%, and they’ll Hoover up all the business and make a [zb] load. Then everyone else will follow suit before they go bust. When companies work on upwards of 40% profit, they have the room to manoeuvre. They’re naturally trying to pass the cost on, like Unilever are trying, until it hits a point of stalemate. What then, pack up? Or drop to a level people will pay. It’s all about finding the common ground. I think realistically the consumer is looking at a 10% load up over the next year. The rest being met by manufacturers and retailers.

We’ve got an opportunity here to reverse our industrial decline by re aligning our trading relationship with the EU,ironically in this case kicked off by a trade war which they want to start because they don’t like us leaving,together with the win win that we can also control the labour supply outside of EU immigration free movement rules.If there is any problem in that it’s that we’ve unfortunately got an ideologically free markets Conservative government playing draughts with the EU when we need a proper anti free markets Eurosceptic Labour government playing chess.Remaining not being an option in either case.

[wheelnutt]

The-Snowman:

wheelnutt:
I mentioned in an earlier post 17 million working people, that is half of the working population have less than a 100 quid left at the end of the month

wheelnutt:
the demand for cheap tat will go down significantly,

Sounds more like the demand for cheap stuff will increase!

The cheap tat just went up in price by 20% and so did a loaf of bread and a spag boll, what do you thing the priorities are going to be??

Cheap tat from China was great when it was just that, cheap. Now that everything is going up in price including that cheap tat it is now longer just a laugh, a joke, a bit of fun, something you could live with or without, it is now eating into your food budget, that cheap tat is becoming a luxury item, a total unnecessary expense.

[wheelnutt]

Carryfast:

OVLOV JAY:
It’s all a question of spin. We can sit here all night arguing about it. The remain side will push their narrative and Brexit likewise. Companies can pass the 20% straight to the consumer, but apart from railways there is always a choice. One maverick will drop their profit by that 20%, and they’ll Hoover up all the business and make a [zb] load. Then everyone else will follow suit before they go bust. When companies work on upwards of 40% profit, they have the room to manoeuvre. They’re naturally trying to pass the cost on, like Unilever are trying, until it hits a point of stalemate. What then, pack up? Or drop to a level people will pay. It’s all about finding the common ground. I think realistically the consumer is looking at a 10% load up over the next year. The rest being met by manufacturers and retailers.

We’ve got an opportunity here to reverse our industrial decline by re aligning our trading relationship with the EU,ironically in this case kicked off by a trade war which they want to start because they don’t like us leaving,together with the win win that we can also control the labour supply outside of EU immigration free movement rules.If there is any problem in that it’s that we’ve unfortunately got an ideologically free markets Conservative government playing draughts with the EU when we need a proper anti free markets Eurosceptic Labour government playing chess.Remaining not being an option in either case.

They are not starting a trade war, they don’t have to. All they have to do is sit back and do nothing, OUR pound is crashing because of the way WE voted. WE are doing the work for them.

You can’t just reverse an industrial decline that took 60 years to decline in 2 years. Who the heck is going to invest in new plants now that nobody has a clue what is going to happen with Brexit and all of the cost of materials and essentials are going up by 20% in the UK. What bank would even lend to a venture wanting to even contemplate such an idea. That isn’t going to happen.

EVERYTHING we buy just went up by 20%, everything. Who do you reckon is laughing now, who do you reckon needs who more.

Great, we can have bent bananas just awfully crap that they are going up in price.