Brexit stuff in one place [MERGED]

[monkey241]

Franglais:
So, isnt it equally possible there will be short term gains, that will be lost later on? . And I for one have never said that there will be no gains at all in Brexit. I have been fairly....vocal?.... :smiley: .....saying that overall I reckon Brexit will be bad. I still see nothing to counter that view. Me having a few quid extra now, very nice as it is, isnt the same as expecting to be part of a sustainable national economy ten years from now.
.
Some sectors will be long term winners of course. Customs officers, customs agents are increasingly needed, and when 2022 we start the extra import checks we will need more of them.
Yep, I fully accept some will be Brexit winners.
I don`t think the country will be in the long term. And when a national economy shrinks all the internals of that economy shrink.

Will it shrink?

The predictions I’ve read suggest reduced growth.

Not the same…but it doesn’t prevent the more dishonest presenting it as such.

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[franglais]

Monkey241:

Franglais:

robroy:
Ahh so you’ve exhausted Covid and masks to the limit, now you’re reviving the pointless Brexit cack.
Way to go Franglais.

At the risk if getting into a waste of time and effort debate,… since Brexit my pay has gone up considerably, to being about the best paid in the area, maybe not good news to you, but it is to me.
Result of, or some connection to Brexit or not…not bothered quite honestly.

My pay has increased lately too.
Yes, I think Brexit has been partly responsible.
.

Partly?

That must have hurt

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There are driver shortages widely reported all over the place, EU, USA etc, so while I am not accepting it is all down to Brexit, I reckon some of it is.

I would be least “hurt” if Brexit turns into a roaring success so I am genuinely better off in the longer term: I reckon a better bank balance would help any bruising to my ego.

[monkey241]

WTF has your ego got to do with it?

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[franglais]

Monkey241:

Franglais:
So, isnt it equally possible there will be short term gains, that will be lost later on? . And I for one have never said that there will be no gains at all in Brexit. I have been fairly....vocal?.... :smiley: .....saying that overall I reckon Brexit will be bad. I still see nothing to counter that view. Me having a few quid extra now, very nice as it is, isnt the same as expecting to be part of a sustainable national economy ten years from now.
.
Some sectors will be long term winners of course. Customs officers, customs agents are increasingly needed, and when 2022 we start the extra import checks we will need more of them.
Yep, I fully accept some will be Brexit winners.
I don`t think the country will be in the long term. And when a national economy shrinks all the internals of that economy shrink.

Will it shrink?

The predictions I’ve read suggest reduced growth.

Not the same…but it doesn’t prevent the more dishonest presenting it as such.

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Generally if if think a post is wrong I start from the premise that the poster is mistaken.
I try to address the issues in the post.

I try to avoid jumping in with “dishonesty” etc.
Too often any real issues get forgotten as silly slanging matches start.

You think I am confusing “shrinking” with “slower growing” ?
A worthy point for debate.

But for today, I will simply say, fine if you accept that ten years from now the UK economy will be smaller with Brexit than it would have been without? Fine.
If my bank balance is today £100.
With EU bank it might be £110 next year.
With Brexit bank it might be £105 next year.
Neither case does it actually shrink…(I grant you zero inflation!)

For today* that point is yours. I was wrong to say shrink.

*terms and conditions apply, including me not wanting to get side-tracked, but I reserve the right to try to argue the back legs off of any donkey as and when, under TNUK rules I feel like it.

[monkey241]

Franglais:

Monkey241:

Franglais:
So, isnt it equally possible there will be short term gains, that will be lost later on? . And I for one have never said that there will be no gains at all in Brexit. I have been fairly....vocal?.... :smiley: .....saying that overall I reckon Brexit will be bad. I still see nothing to counter that view. Me having a few quid extra now, very nice as it is, isnt the same as expecting to be part of a sustainable national economy ten years from now.
.
Some sectors will be long term winners of course. Customs officers, customs agents are increasingly needed, and when 2022 we start the extra import checks we will need more of them.
Yep, I fully accept some will be Brexit winners.
I don`t think the country will be in the long term. And when a national economy shrinks all the internals of that economy shrink.

Will it shrink?

The predictions I’ve read suggest reduced growth.

Not the same…but it doesn’t prevent the more dishonest presenting it as such.

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Generally if if think a post is wrong I start from the premise that the poster is mistaken.
I try to address the issues in the post.

I try to avoid jumping in with “dishonesty” etc.
Too often any real issues get forgotten as silly slanging matches start.

You think I am confusing “shrinking” with “slower growing” ?
A worthy point for debate.

But for today, I will simply say, fine if you accept that ten years from now the UK economy will be smaller with Brexit than it would have been without? Fine.
If my bank balance is today £100.
With EU bank it might be £110 next year.
With Brexit bank it might be £105 next year.
Neither case does it actually shrink…(I grant you zero inflation!)

For today* that point is yours. I was wrong to say shrink.

*terms and conditions apply, including me not wanting to get side-tracked, but I reserve the right to try to argue the back legs off of any donkey as and when, under TNUK rules I feel like it.

If I simply accept? I don’t.

Economic predictions are deeply flawed in the models used.

As for shrink and reduced growth? No, it isn’t a worthy point of debate. Words have meaning.

But then certain words are deliberately misused to purvey a greater negative connotation. It works when it isn’t challenged.

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[monkey241]

I like the sustainable national economy comment though…

More prognistication of complete collapse [emoji1787]

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[franglais]

Monkey241:
WTF has your ego got to do with it?

Hopefully not too much.
I hope the same is true for you.
So back to Brexit?

Monkey241:
Interesting though… the issue with UK steel exports occurred as a direct result of bloc membership.

So I wouldn’t claim that us leaving was negative in this scenario- at best you could argue a neutral effect (the ban being imposed cancels out the ban not being lifted)

Of course the USA historically has a hazily romantic view of the Troubles

Yes the tariffs were imposed while we were members of the EU.
Now the EU has those lifted and we don`t.
No dispute there.
Looks bad from where I am sitting.

So now any imports the USA has been making from the EU and UK up to now will have a price differential applied.
The UK steel will be the same price to a US consumer. The EU steel will be cheaper.

Will that result in a shrinkage of that particular sector? Or will the US just continue to buy UK steel at the same rate? Can buy cheaper EU steel? Depends on the specialisation of steel types probably.
What steels are made here, by a company that doesnt make the same stuff in the EU? What steel can the UK supply that the EU cant now supply cheaper?

The USA and The Troubles is a very wide subject. It is hard for anyone to be objective about it, and you`re absolutely correct the US views are …seen through different prisms.
But that is the situation we are in. We are dealing with a big player and whether or not we agree with their views, those views are influencing the political and economic situation. all we can do is deal with them.

[monkey241]

Franglais:

Monkey241:
WTF has your ego got to do with it?

Hopefully not too much.
I hope the same is true for you.
So back to Brexit?

Monkey241:
Interesting though… the issue with UK steel exports occurred as a direct result of bloc membership.

So I wouldn’t claim that us leaving was negative in this scenario- at best you could argue a neutral effect (the ban being imposed cancels out the ban not being lifted)

Of course the USA historically has a hazily romantic view of the Troubles

Yes the tariffs were imposed while we were members of the EU.
Now the EU has those lifted and we don`t.
No dispute there.
Looks bad from where I am sitting.

So now any imports the USA has been making from the EU and UK up to now will have a price differential applied.
The UK steel will be the same price to a US consumer. The EU steel will be cheaper.

Will that result in a shrinkage of that particular sector? Or will the US just continue to buy UK steel at the same rate? Can buy cheaper EU steel? Depends on the specialisation of steel types probably.
What steels are made here, by a company that doesnt make the same stuff in the EU? What steel can the UK supply that the EU cant now supply cheaper?

The USA and The Troubles is a very wide subject. It is hard for anyone to be objective about it, and you`re absolutely correct the US views are …seen through different prisms.
But that is the situation we are in. We are dealing with a big player and whether or not we agree with their views, those views are influencing the political and economic situation. all we can do is deal with them.

Funny how you brought ego into it but present a question about it as somehow me deflecting [emoji1787]

Nice to see you accept the neutral point though.

At what point does principle interfere with trade? The childlike US interpretation of the Troubles and their views on Art 16 seems like a fair place to start

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[franglais]

Monkey241:
At what point does principle interfere with trade? The childlike US interpretation of the Troubles and their views on Art 16 seems like a fair place to start

No matter how we interpret and judge the US views on Ireland, we are where we are.

We have the EU getting a better deal than us on steel and it seems to be because of Art 16.
A direct result of Brexit and the (mis)handling of it by the current Gov.
Our steel sector could well shrink because of it.
Even the (almost only) economists in favour of Brexit predicted farming and production would decrease under Brexit.

We have Truss tweeting about a Brexit gain that clearly isn`t.
Anyone care to support her view?

Monkey241:
Economic predictions are deeply flawed in the models used.

So, which models do you recommend?
It is fair to say that economics is a complicated subject, and involves as much (more?) psychology as maths, and that maths* is pretty complex in itself, but what alternatives do you offer?

*the newer applications of chaos theory and fractals are fascinating.
I can`t handle a paintbrush like a Monet, but I can see what he has done.

[monkey241]

Franglais:

Monkey241:
At what point does principle interfere with trade? The childlike US interpretation of the Troubles and their views on Art 16 seems like a fair place to start

No matter how we interpret and judge the US views on Ireland, we are where we are.

We have the EU getting a better deal than us on steel and it seems to be because of Art 16.
A direct result of Brexit and the (mis)handling of it by the current Gov.
Our steel sector could well shrink because of it.
Even the (almost only) economists in favour of Brexit predicted farming and production would decrease under Brexit.

We have Truss tweeting about a Brexit gain that clearly isn`t.
Anyone care to support her view?

Monkey241:
Economic predictions are deeply flawed in the models used.

So, which models do you recommend?
It is fair to say that economics is a complicated subject, and involves as much (more?) psychology as maths, and that maths* is pretty complex in itself, but what alternatives do you offer?

*the newer applications of chaos theory and fractals are fascinating.
I can`t handle a paintbrush like a Monet, but I can see what he has done.

Yet again we have dishonest language

Did the economists mention a decrease in output? Or a drop in predicted growth?

You got upset that I called you on your dishonesty earlier; yet here we are again.

I don’t know about you - but to me, a spade is a spade.

I like your breakdown of what economics is. What is apparent is that the study of economics is often a deeply flawed process and that the scenario of Brexit has never been encountered before. On that basis whatever model is used is at best a potentially deeply flawed best guess.

But then we also get to your lack of understanding as to some of the drivers behind Brexit. However, we’ve also highlighted your difficulties as regards moral principles.

Tell me, given your slavish adherence to the EU and to migration, how do you reconcile EU suspension of asylum rules on the Belarus border?

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[monkey241]

A Brexit gain that clearly isn’t?

Lamb?

I think you’re hard pushed to argue that, given in one scenario you’re arguing Brexit worked against us (steel) because of Art 16.

If that’s the case then why wasn’t the same logic applied with lamb?

The logic here is inconsistent. Now it could be the Biden administration (we dont know their rationale- though in the past they haven’t been shy about Brexit threats). Given we don’t know their reasoning, to present it as a Brexit failure seems - what’s the word - dishonest?

There is a pattern here. I’ll figure it out I’m sure [emoji6]

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[franglais]

Monkey241:
Tell me, given your slavish adherence to the EU and to migration, how do you reconcile EU suspension of asylum rules on the Belarus border?

Please explain how you arrived at the judgment I am a “slavish adherent” of the EU?

Im not justifying, defending the EU position on many, many, things. I have said many, many, times that the EU is pretty ■■■■. Ill repeat it now. Its crap. Are you setting up straw men? Imagining what I havent said?
The EU is crap, but in the real world being in it, is better than being out of it.

Monkey241:
Given we don’t know their reasoning, to present it as a Brexit failure seems - what’s the word - dishonest?

If we were still in the EU we would have had the steel tariffs dropped along with the other EU countries.
In the EU no tariff
Out the EU tariff
Brexit causes a loss

Monkey241:
A Brexit gain that clearly isn’t?
Lamb?

Truss claims that our regaining lamb trade is due to Brexit.
The EU have gained exactly the same as we have.
So no change in our position dependent on in/out EU. No Brexit gain.
In EU no tariff
Out EU no tariff
Brexit makes no change

[monkey241]

Franglais:

Monkey241:
Tell me, given your slavish adherence to the EU and to migration, how do you reconcile EU suspension of asylum rules on the Belarus border?

Please explain how you arrived at the judgment I am a “slavish adherent” of the EU?

Im not justifying, defending the EU position on many, many, things. I have said many, many, times that the EU is pretty [zb]. Ill repeat it now. Its crap. Are you setting up straw men? Imagining what I havent said?
The EU is crap, but in the real world being in it, is better than being out of it.

Monkey241:
Given we don’t know their reasoning, to present it as a Brexit failure seems - what’s the word - dishonest?

If we were still in the EU we would have had the steel tariffs dropped along with the other EU countries.
In the EU no tariff
Out the EU tariff
Brexit causes a loss

Monkey241:
A Brexit gain that clearly isn’t?
Lamb?

Truss claims that our regaining lamb trade is due to Brexit.
The EU have gained exactly the same as we have.
So no change in our position dependent on in/out EU. No Brexit gain.
In EU no tariff
Out EU no tariff
Brexit makes no change

So…in your own words the EU is crap.
I’m a committed leaver but even I probably wouldn’t refer to it that baldly.

Given that you think it’s crap perhaps you can explain why… and we can explore the coincidence with why leavers viewed leaving as the better option.

You avoided commenting on the migration issue, yet you’re all over the other thread pointing out how the UK has it wrong.

Steel tariffs…had we never been in the EU…[emoji6] In fact it was our membership that directly resulted in the tariffs being imposed. I guess what you’re saying is being a member harmed us and leaving didn’t improve our position. Had embittered Remainers not attempted to thwart Brexit at every turn, perhaps we’d have been out before such tariffs were imposed.

Lamb…we have no idea why the US changed attitudes. Just because both the EU and UK benefitted, it may not have been for the same reasons.

Incidentally British lamb was banned in the US in 1989…

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[monkey241]

BTW have you a link to the US importation of lamb relaxation? Banned in the 90s apparently - for reasons different to British lamb.

One would suggest both the EU and UK have been lobbying to have the different bans overturned.

Not sure you can claim this wasn’t a Brexit win [emoji6]

Incidentally US tariffs on EU steel has changed to being a tariff quota - with tariffs of 25% over the quota.

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[franglais]

Monkey241:
BTW have you a link to the US importation of lamb relaxation? Banned in the 90s apparently - for reasons different to British lamb.

twitter.com/trussliz/status/1466805968759668736

“We`ve got the lamb ban lifted”…

Well, the US lamb ban is lifted for all the EU as well as the UK isn`t it? So, if “we”* got it lifted, I guess the EU will be writing her a letter of thanks for her sterling work.

“Environment Secretary George Eustice said:
Today’s great news follows years of negotiations and builds on the success in securing the resumption of UK beef exports to the US. UK lamb is renowned for its high quality, food safety and welfare standards. Millions of US consumers will now be able to enjoy British lamb as early as next year.”
gov.uk/government/news/us-m … -from-2022

Years of negotiations, so, the talks started while we were still in the EU.
Who should write a letter of thanks to whom?

Monkey241:
Lamb…we have no idea why the US changed attitudes. Just because both the EU and UK benefitted, it may not have been for the same reasons
Incidentally British lamb was banned in the US in 1989…

1989…remember CJD? Mad cows? Wasn`t that the reason for the ban?

Do you suggest that the US has lifted the US import ban on EU and UK meats for two separate reasons, but at exactly the same time?
Anything is possible, not everything is equally likely.

Monkey241:
Not sure you can claim this wasn’t a Brexit win [emoji6]

A Brexit win would be a benefit we now have, we wouldn`t have had as a member of the EU.
Steel

Franglais:
In the EU no tariff
Out the EU tariff
Brexit causes a loss

Sheep meat

Franglais:
In EU no tariff
Out EU no tariff
Brexit makes no change

Looks simple enough to me.

[franglais]

Monkey241:
You avoided commenting on the migration issue, yet you’re all over the other thread pointing out how the UK has it wrong.

What?
Does my saying that we are better in the EU than out mean that every aspect of the EU is great? Clearly it isnt and I havent said so. Setting up straw men again?
I am not a “slavish adherent” or whatever you suggested earlier (with no justification yet, since you seem to score keeping) to the EU, nor anyone else.

The EU is a rusty old tub.
But it is afloat and will weather storms better than any small dinghy I reckon.

[monkey241]

Yeh…sorry you misunderstood.
I was asking for a link to the EU ban being lifted. (Separate bans)

Anything is possible (the fact you don’t think it likely is - well - strikingly irrelevant.) Did the EU lift the bans for 2 different reasons; yes the historical lack of BSE in the UK and the fact that certain EU states got a better grip of scrapie. I’m sure lobbying by both the UK and EU forced a common decision…but very much doubt EU lobbying caused the BSE ban to be lifted.

A Brexit win etc etc? Whether we would have had it under the EU is an assumption since the EU lobbied to lift a scrapie ban and I seem to recall other EU states had a ban on UK beef too… can’t see them forming an argument on beef to get a UK lamb ban lifted [emoji6]

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[monkey241]

Franglais:

Monkey241:
You avoided commenting on the migration issue, yet you’re all over the other thread pointing out how the UK has it wrong.

What?
Does my saying that we are better in the EU than out mean that every aspect of the EU is great? Clearly it isnt and I havent said so. Setting up straw men again?
I am not a “slavish adherent” or whatever you suggested earlier (with no justification yet, since you seem to score keeping) to the EU, nor anyone else.

The EU is a rusty old tub.
But it is afloat and will weather storms better than any small dinghy I reckon.

You reckon it’ll whether storms better than the old dinghy?

Interesting boating analogy.

You seem obsessed with what you call a strawman argument. I guess it’s only the UK you like to whine about.

Still, highlighting EU failures calls your judgement into question doesn’t it?

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[franglais]

Monkey241:
You seem obsessed with what you call a strawman argument. I guess it’s only the UK you like to whine about.

Franglais:
Im not justifying, defending the EU position on many, many, things. I have said many, many, times that the EU is pretty [zb]. Ill repeat it now. It`s crap.

Goodnight.

[monkey241]

Franglais:

Monkey241:
You seem obsessed with what you call a strawman argument. I guess it’s only the UK you like to whine about.

Franglais:
Im not justifying, defending the EU position on many, many, things. I have said many, many, times that the EU is pretty [zb]. Ill repeat it now. It`s crap.

Goodnight.

Damned with faint praise?

Brexit is the greatest criminal act of all time to summate your verbose hyperbole…and why?

Because we should have stayed in a crap trade bloc.

■■■■■■ genius [emoji1787]

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