The Saturday sitting of Parliament coming up - must NOT be used as an excuse to cancel Brexit or hold a 2nd referendum - should this “imminent deal” now not happen after all.
Winseer:
Part of the problems we’ve had - is because the Queen has her hands tied, as part of the “Constitutional Monarchy” unwritten agreements - that include HM not getting involved in any aspect of politics.
A rogue parliament handing the country and its forces over to a foreign power has nothing to do with ‘politics’ and everything to do with the defence of the realm.For which she is unarguably ultimately responsible and has the final say.
Carryfast:
Winseer:
Part of the problems we’ve had - is because the Queen has her hands tied, as part of the “Constitutional Monarchy” unwritten agreements - that include HM not getting involved in any aspect of politics.A rogue parliament handing the country and its forces over to a foreign power has nothing to do with ‘politics’ and everything to do with the defence of the realm.For which she is unarguably ultimately responsible and has the final say.
I’m surprised that the Queen hasn’t realized that “Closer political Union with the EU” barely a year away now - will involve the Monarchy itself being abolished, most likely upon her death to “aid the smooth transition of Britain from a vassal state in all but name” - to a new position as “European Socialist Republic”, which roughly puts us where Hungary got put following WWII. Once within the Eurocurrency, it will then be possible to utterly control money supply, and those who don’t “conform” - will be socially-scored out of their very lives by a new order establishment where the furthest “Right” one can openly go - is “Liberal”. 
Perhaps HM is as resigned to the UK’s fate in that regard as she is to her own mortality…
I wonder what her “heirs and successors” think of that though?
If our current House of WIndsor - is not prepared to rescue our ancient lands from the clutches of foreign control - then perhaps it is time for a new HOUSE rather than a new political system we don’t want, and never wanted? 
Pound has been steadily rising the past few days… It seems as if the Pound Shorts are now covering their positions - in case the pound flies higher come Brexit Day…?
This would suggest that Brexit is going to actually happen now - one way or the other.
Here’s hoping then!
Winseer:
Pound has been steadily rising the past few days… It seems as if the Pound Shorts are now covering their positions - in case the pound flies higher come Brexit Day…?This would suggest that Brexit is going to actually happen now - one way or the other.
Here’s hoping then!
[emoji1696][emoji1696][emoji1696][emoji1696][emoji1696][emoji1696][emoji1696][emoji1696]
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Winseer:
Pound has been steadily rising the past few days… It seems as if the Pound Shorts are now covering their positions - in case the pound flies higher come Brexit Day…?This would suggest that Brexit is going to actually happen now - one way or the other.
Here’s hoping then!
Why will the pound will rise on ‘Brexit Day’?
Winseer:
Pound has been steadily rising the past few days… It seems as if the Pound Shorts are now covering their positions - in case the pound flies higher come Brexit Day…?This would suggest that Brexit is going to actually happen now - one way or the other.
Here’s hoping then!
There has been a slight upturn in the pound.
Maybe it’s because a No Deal Brexit can possibly be avoided?
None of this small gain comes anywhere near the substantial loss the pound took in 2016.
.
Looks like you’ve lost a quid, found a penny and think you’re lucky!
Franglais:
Winseer:
Pound has been steadily rising the past few days… It seems as if the Pound Shorts are now covering their positions - in case the pound flies higher come Brexit Day…?This would suggest that Brexit is going to actually happen now - one way or the other.
Here’s hoping then!
There has been a slight upturn in the pound.
Maybe it’s because a No Deal Brexit can possibly be avoided?
None of this small gain comes anywhere near the substantial loss the pound took in 2016.
.
Looks like you’ve lost a quid, found a penny and think you’re lucky!
Or Boris ‘rather be dead in a ditch’ Johnson will now be requesting an extension as his deal is markedly worse than the one Teresa May offered to Parliament…
Franglais:
Winseer:
Pound has been steadily rising the past few days… It seems as if the Pound Shorts are now covering their positions - in case the pound flies higher come Brexit Day…?This would suggest that Brexit is going to actually happen now - one way or the other.
Here’s hoping then!
There has been a slight upturn in the pound.
Maybe it’s because a No Deal Brexit can possibly be avoided?
None of this small gain comes anywhere near the substantial loss the pound took in 2016.
.
Looks like you’ve lost a quid, found a penny and think you’re lucky!
At the start of the decade economists and central bankers were saying that the £ was overvalued by 15-20% and needed to lose that to be at it’s true value. Half way through the decade it does that but now it’s a bad thing, could that be because it wasn’t the economists and bankers that caused the realignment, at the end of the day whether the fall in the value of the £ is economic or political the effect is the same. Seems to be that the bankers are miffed because they can’t take credit for the fall and everyone can see that in the main bankers and economists are to be trusted as much as the average politician
Mazzer2:
Franglais:
Winseer:
Pound has been steadily rising the past few days… It seems as if the Pound Shorts are now covering their positions - in case the pound flies higher come Brexit Day…?This would suggest that Brexit is going to actually happen now - one way or the other.
Here’s hoping then!
There has been a slight upturn in the pound.
Maybe it’s because a No Deal Brexit can possibly be avoided?
None of this small gain comes anywhere near the substantial loss the pound took in 2016.
.
Looks like you’ve lost a quid, found a penny and think you’re lucky!At the start of the decade economists and central bankers were saying that the £ was overvalued by 15-20% and needed to lose that to be at it’s true value. Half way through the decade it does that but now it’s a bad thing, could that be because it wasn’t the economists and bankers that caused the realignment, at the end of the day whether the fall in the value of the £ is economic or political the effect is the same. Seems to be that the bankers are miffed because they can’t take credit for the fall and everyone can see that in the main bankers and economists are to be trusted as much as the average politician
You’re absolutely correct that many commentators did say the pound was too high. But they should have specified for what reason.
A strong pound may be bad for exporting UK produce, but good for buying foreign goods. The pound falling means our exports fetch in more Euros, but my Routiers dinners cost more of my £night out money, and everyone wanting cervesas on the Costa will pay more for them and the ticket to get there.
Good or bad, as any section views any rise/fall, a small ForEx change over a few days compared with the step in 2016 means nowt.
If the pound is HIGHER - then you’re better off for whatever number of weeks you have sterling to spend on your foreign holidays. What’s that for most people? - 2-4 weeks per year tops?
Was food significantly cheaper when the pound was all the higher pre-referendum?
Was fuel the same?
Now that the pound is LOWER, and has been down here for some time since…
Exporters - are seeing full order books like never before. As long as the pound doesn’t keep on dropping, but could stablize at post-referendum levels (which it did, and continues to do…) - Exporters are already seeing the “stablity” they need.
The LAST thing they’ll want - is a sharp rise in the pound that’ll put those new foreign orders at risk…“25% dearer overnight” will be the way their foreign customers see it.
Labour - gain some seats from the Greens. That’s plus one TOPS then.
Libdems - gain some seats from Conservatives and Labour. How many? - Brexiteer Tories in Remain-voting seats - like Rees-Mogg for instance…
Brexit Party - gain some seats from Conservatives and Labour. How many? - Remainer MPs in Leave-voting areas. Over 100 of such seats up for grabs.
Tories? - Can’t gain from Brexit Party, since they had zero to start with. That means the Tories only gain from voters swinging away from the LIBDEMS…
Which group of voters is THAT though? That would suggest a max upside of less than 20 seats to win.
I’m an ex-Libdem voter. Are there really any Libdem LEAVE voters still supporting the illiberal anti-democrats NOW?
Winseer:
If the pound is HIGHER - then you’re better off for whatever number of weeks you have sterling to spend on your foreign holidays. What’s that for most people? - 2-4 weeks per year tops?Was food significantly cheaper when the pound was all the higher pre-referendum?
Was fuel the same?
Now that the pound is LOWER, and has been down here for some time since…
Exporters - are seeing full order books like never before. As long as the pound doesn’t keep on dropping, but could stablize at post-referendum levels (which it did, and continues to do…) - Exporters are already seeing the “stablity” they need.The LAST thing they’ll want - is a sharp rise in the pound that’ll put those new foreign orders at risk…“25% dearer overnight” will be the way their foreign customers see it.
Here is a link to the ONS:
ons.gov.uk/economy/national … ofsterling
15 minutes looking at that will show how the fall in the £ has affected everyday prices. Very little we consume is totally home produced, almost everything has an element of imported cost.
What evidence have you that exporters have “full order books like never before”?
pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_busi … endum.html
PWC show a sharp rise in UK exports after the pound fell post referendum, but by 2018 that effect had largely dissipated.
.
Unless you come up with some credible sources I`ll call your post…fiction.
Politics - is always the “Truth one cannot prove” and the “Lies that cannot be disproved”.
We’re not starving as a result of “Not being able to afford to get the food shop in”. That’s proof to me that the drop in the pound - hasn’t put us all to food banks.
After an initial spike in food prices, the supermarkets were able to push back at farmers to “let them have it cheaper” so their profits were maintained at the supermarkets - at the expense of Farmer livlihoods.
The continuing high price of LAND means that a farmer is now better-off letting their farms out for accommodation and/or re-developement. Ergo, the lack of a property market crash - is hurting normal folk at least as badly as the drop in the pound.
Officialdom, official websites, officials, and official press releases - ALL routinely lie to the public these days to such an extent that we frankly - don’t know WHO to beleive about ANYTHING any more.
Best to take as much “information” on board as possible, with “belief” going back to that old chesnut of “Faith” then.
If one routinely “disbelieves everything” - then it is impossible for any information to educate one at any time, truth/fiction being mixed up in the same bag as it is.
If one routinely “believes what church and state tell you” with regards to that “religion” - then those of skeptic nature may well argue that any such “believers” are gullible.
That leaves the middle people. The moderates. Those that cannot be won over by lies and propaganda, but are unlikely to recognize dire warnings as “truth” when they hear/see it.
I, for example - cannot imagine ever taking to the streets over Brexit BUT if I were put out of work, had nothing to do all day, and had to go out “dustbin diving” just to put food on the table - then would I more likely be acting like a tramp - OR try and perform some more up-market and effective “deeds” to help my own menagerie out day-by-day?
As a moderate, I fear being pushed to an extreme then. That’s the danger we must surely now be facing in this country: When the moderates are in danger from the baying mobs of BOTH sides…
Truth or Fiction - the optics - of this are quite frightening - are they not?
dailymail.co.uk/news/articl … -home.html
If our Brexiteer MPs now come to harm - there’s NO WAY we should believe the rhetoric that “The Far Right” somehow harmed them. This is all about the EU weaponizing everything from the Remainer Protestors, Extinction Rebellion, Benefits claimants with nothing better to do, and of course POWER CUTS and JOB DISRUPTIONS in the weeks to come. A Far Left-organized “Winter of Discontent” is coming - and it is going to be made the Brexiteer’s fault rather than theirs. Question EVERYTHING you see this coming Christmas!
We have a national postal strike coming up for instance. now imagine if other companies act like Citilink did a while back and laid a load of drivers off on that run-up to Christmas?
What motivates a working class driver to “cross a truly hostile picket line” like “no food on the table at Christmas time”?
Drivers thinking about agency work at RM at least - should be very suspicious of any “double-manning” required of them I would suggest…
"If there are enough drivers to double-man agency runs with full-time drivers in an acting manager role - then who protects YOU when you arrive at said picket line, the “manager” orders you to cross it, or orders you to NOT cross it - and be docked your pay because YOU refused to complete your duty?
£19.48ph - isn’t much if it can be taken away from you again - at the drop of a hat.
The only “scabs” here - are the drivers that carry on working - but as Managers rather than drivers. Attempts to make “anything going wrong” as somehow being “all the agency driver’s fault” - will be rather more disruptive to workers, especially agency workers - and the general PUBLIC in a rather more-organized manner than Extinction Rebellion did - the first, rather limp-lettuce round of “public disruption at the hands of organized Lefties”.
I’d also suggest “Not getting sick” and “Keeping away from hospitals” this Christmas…
They’ve already got their chimney stacks in place!!!
People are supposed to shrink away from a Labour government in this coming election - and drop Brexit as a cause as the “Price to pay” for keeping Corbyn out.
…Should Labour Leave voters join forces with Conservative Leave voters and get behind Brexit party however - the Tories are going to be in BIG trouble.
I can forsee a situation where Brexit Party end up winning 50 seats, Labour 281, and the Tories 280.
All Corbyn has to do is say YES to a coalition with Farage - to supply Labour with the magic money tree it has been after for YEARS that comes courtesy of a no-deal Brexit.
What could Boris Johnson possibly offer, should he lose net seats like I’d expect him to do?
Farage - will INSIST on “being honest” and “coming out for No Deal for 31st January”…
There is a possibility that the main parties will
(1) Try and go it alone as a minority government, continuing the deadlock of THEIR choice at Westminster…
(2) Form a coalition of National Unity - just to keep Farage out of government, when he’s not even standing as an MP… A Wasted Effort!
A proper Brexit - cannot be completed without Farage’s Brexit Party. The Remainers “Last gamble” that we’ll all ditch Brexit in favour of “let’s forget the whole thing, as Boris’ deal like May’s - is worse than Remaining!” - stands to shake our political establishment to the core.
What can the SNP offer, or the Libdems come to that?
Empty promises, impossible to ever implement their flagship policies other than the simple “Hard Remain” of “Revoking Article 50” or “getting TWO 2nd referendums” because we lack the leadership to get things DONE in this country.
Higher Taxes, Higher Borrowing, and More Austerity - will be needed to fund everything from the NHS to public sector wages - IF we don’t do the Clean Break Brexit which Farage’s Brexit Party envisiges.,
Last chance, and last call folks.
I don’t think the public are anywhere NEAR scared enough of a future Corbyn Government to “ditch Brexit” at this late stage!
Labour are now 16-1 against winning a majority from 33-1 against a week ago.
The Tories have drifted out from evens to 6/4 against this week.
Although Labour is closing the gap - they need to make deep inroads into SNP and Libdem territory IF they are to achieve a full majority.
It is actually far easier for Labour to gain power - by letting Boris’ Conservatives “fall past them” so that Labour have “the most seats” in another hung parliament, with Brexit Party as Kingmakers.
If Boris refuses to countenance No Deal - even at the price of his job - then Corbyn - who’d presumably “do anything to become PM” - might think differently, especially if his recent run of “assertiveness” continues now…
Can you imagine the parliamentary Labour Party telling Corbyn NOT to “go into coalition” - meaning Labour stay as the Opposition whilst the Tories form another minority government??
A coalition with Brexit Party - might end up being more likely with LABOUR now than the expected Tories then, I suspect…
Con/Brexit Party - 25/1
Lab/Brexit Party - 100/1
I’ll probably have a tenner on both of those options… 
Gotta wait until pay day though. I hope those odds last long enough!
There’s been some money for both Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Baily “To be the next PM after Boris goes”…
Keir Starmer is now 20-1 to be Boris Johnson’s successor.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - is now 33-1.
There’s no serious money for anyone else, other than Corbyn and Swinson of course.
Thing is, that would mean one or both of them - must remove Corbyn THIS side of the General Election!!
Is there a coup already in progress, to “remove Corbyn before he embraces NO Deal with Farage’s Brexit Party” I wonder??
Imagine that - Corbyn leading his party to an election win - but the Parliamentary Labour Party then REMOVING him in a vote of no confidence, to stop him going into coalition with Brexit Party… Drowned in the swamp by all the swamp creatures pulling the Left’s Beloved Leader DOWN…
Labour voters - “won’t be very pleased with Keir Starmer” in particular over that - will they?
It might even come to a “centerist/Blairite/champagne socialist PURGE” in the Labour party, should Corbyn decide Not to bloody well go quietly here…!
As an outsider looking in (Belgian national), I’ve found this to be a very interesting debate/ thread.
Some very interesting points have come up.
Not sure how the general election will go as there’s good & bad arguments on both sides of the table.
I do hope that whatever the outcome will be that the Country (GB &NI) can unite and once again be at the forefront of things instead of trailing behind as it does now on the world stage.
Geoffo:
As an outsider looking in (Belgian national), I’ve found this to be a very interesting debate/ thread.
Some very interesting points have come up.
Not sure how the general election will go as there’s good & bad arguments on both sides of the table.
I do hope that whatever the outcome will be that the Country (GB &NI) can unite and once again be at the forefront of things instead of trailing behind as it does now on the world stage.
I’m thinking that this election is going to be more about “Faith” over “Tribal” interests.
If Remainers lack the faith in their ability to cancel Brexit - then they will be switching AWAY from Swinson, towards most likely Labour, giving Corbyn a boost.
If Remainers really DO believe in “stopping Brexit” - then the Libdems are going to surge like they’ve never surged before - at Tory AND Labour expense, with the SNP possibly being wiped out via “collateral damage”.
If Brexiteers buckle under to Boris Johnson’s version of “Project Fear” - then he will probably win his comfortable majority, and Brexit Party end up on zero seats.
The Problem with that is the Remainers will be out in force arguing that “The Brexit vote has collapsed, so either cancel Brexit - or call a second referendum to prove us wrong!”
That would be a powerful movement to stand against, making Boris’ “Majority” - worth little in the day-to-day cut and thrust of completing even his form of Brexit…
Then there’s the notion of Brexiteers HAVE enough faith…
…Taking the chance that a “vote for Brexit” - doesn’t let in Corbyn… Well that isn’t going to put off Labour Leave voters from voting Brexit Party - is it? Perhaps those same Labour voters normally stay at home, rather than vote for the Labour candidate who barely holds into their deposit, them coming and going as “fresh candidates” at each election over the past decade…
…OR Taking the chance that a “Vote for Brexit Party” - lets a Libdem Remainer take a seat off a Tory Remainer, for example in Portsmouth…
Overall then - It would seem we’re either going to see a total sea change in UK politics - OR everyone truly IS scared to “step into the unknown” - and we end up with pretty much exactly the same parliamentary complement as we have now.
To Me, THAT would be the “worst outcome of all” in this coming election.
“Another Hung parliament with no Brexit Party in it.”
Winseer:
To Me, THAT would be the “worst outcome of all” in this coming election.“Another Hung parliament with no Brexit Party in it.”
That is exactly why Bojo has done a May 2.This is all about an effective second EU referendum but along constituency boundary lines which Remain can’t lose.The best solution for the Leave vote is to boycott it and/or do just as the Remainers did in refusing to recognise the result regardless.No vote is going to fix this nor should it.No one has the right to vote the country into EU vassalage.
Winseer:
…Should Labour Leave voters join forces with Conservative Leave voters and get behind Brexit party however - the Tories are going to be in BIG trouble.
You live in a fantasy world.
The sort of Leave which Labour voters want is utterly at odds with what Tory Leavers want.
You find me the driver who wants to cut his pay to £5 an hour or less to compete with the third world, and there you’ll have the man whom Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage really represent.
We really are entering the final stretch of whether workers are going to break the spell at the last moment, or whether they are going to support right-wing radicals who will leave all the working class in this country as high and dry as the fishermen.