There could be no more HGV driving jobs within four years, according to an alarming new study conducted by leasing firm Nationwide Vehicle Contracts.
The report found online deliveries could also grind to a halt by 2037 because 30,000 additional drivers were required to meet demand.
Nationwide said its study relied on an extinction formula from Google Trends/Glimpse search volume data that it had collected over the last five years.
It extrapolated the date at which jobs would become “extinct” and found that for HGV drivers the year was 2029.
Nationwide pointed out that the country was already facing a growing shortage, with monthly searches for lorry driver jobs at just 4,400.
And despite an almost 21% increase in drivers between 2023 and 2024, an ageing workforce and low pay were piling pressure on the sector.
It said 50% of drivers were aged over 50 and that by 2029 the UK may need 200,000 more to meet demand.
Nationwide found there were currently 246,000 delivery drivers in employment, with major employers including Just Eat, Yodel, Tesco and Royal Mail, but 30,000 more were needed to stave off a complete collapse in online deliveries within 12 years.
The analysis also found vehicle technician jobs could face a complete shortage by 2047 due to a demand for EV specialists.
“The current rapid growth of electric vehicles is outpacing the supply of skilled workers, while an ageing workforce and low apprentice recruitment are worsening the shortfall,” it said.
The RHA didn’t comment specifically on Nationwide’s study, but policy director Declan Pang told Motor Transport: “RHA research shows the UK will need 40,000 new HGV drivers every year for the next five years just to keep up with demand and to account for current attrition rates and the ageing workforce.
“There is a vital need to invest in training, recruitment, and retention across the sector,” he added.
This week, Logistics UK called for a coordinated effort from the government to support alternative training pathways to avoid a “potential disaster in the future”.
Its own study found 14.5% of hauliers were facing severe or very severe problems in employing HGV drivers.
It pointed to an ageing workforce and operators’ inability to recruit and the group criticised the decision to discontinue centralised funding for the HGV Skills Bootcamp programme as premature.
Who’s going to deliver the goods? Shock study predicts the extinction of lorry driving jobs by 2029
Keith Hawes, director at Nationwide Vehicle Contracts, said autonomous HGVs were unlikely to fill the skills gap: “The development of autonomous driving depends on all vehicles being able to communicate seamlessly with one another,” he explained.
“The idea of a 42-tonne lorry, complete with trailer and load, being driven autonomously on open roads still feels far off. In my view, we’re unlikely to see this as a mainstream reality before 2050
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