So as the title goes to all those political / economist type drivers out there just when and how does this so called slow down in the economy/ recession end , I know we generally work through and come out the other side but how does it work ,
Even though we are ticking over at work I personally like things to be very busy , don’t mind putting the hours in over the week as hourly paid and tend not to work any weekends and hardly ever out on a Friday night, so as much work in the week for me please .
Looking forward to any explanations
Thanks in advance
Sploom:
I think they usually last two years if you go by the recessions we have had in the past
The best years of my working life, between 1975 to 1985, were one big long recession.
As bad as the 1930’s in terms of the level of the collapse.From which the country has never really recovered.Mostly caused by a deliberate plan of deindustrialisation to the benefit of the foreign competition.
In addition to having been born in one of the worst anti road pro rail transport countries in existence.
On that note the plan for rail now will send the industry back to where it was in the 1920’s.IE a local errand service for the rail freight sector.
Happy Trucker1:
So as the title goes to all those political / economist type drivers out there just when and how does this so called slow down in the economy/ recession end , I know we generally work through and come out the other side but how does it work
We’ve not had a recession. We got close but not actually had one. Germany on the other hand looks like it may have entered one.
Look at facts and data, not at the hysterical fear ■■■■ peddling crap the news media put out. UK economy grew 4% in 2022, the highest rate of growth in the G7 but have you seen that reported anywhere? No. They’re too busy peddling fear ■■■■ instead, reporting that the IMF, an organisation that consistently gets forecasts for the UK massively wrong and is constantly raising forecasts its made for the UK, is reporting that the UK will have the worst growth of the G7 and be worst than even Russia in 2023. I’ll believe it when I see it is all I’ll say.
The big problem for the last few decades has been the “free-market” theories that have been followed religiously. The end result is a low pay and privatised economy where the money flows to the rich. This is the model most tories saw as children in the Thatcher days and now they can see no alternative. Imagine if the gas companies were still publicly-owned - all those billions flowing straight to the treasury like Norway did with their publicly owned energy company - they’ve got about 500 billion saved that they can spend on whatever they want. All our north sea oil money went on paying dole money following “free market” polices that put everyone out of work so it would be easier to destroy the unions and cut pay.
I heard one economist saying the biggest problem the British economy has is rubbish pay. It sounds good at first if you’re a tory - pay the workers rubbish and let the bosses and shareholders keep everything. Trouble is that after decades of low pay you end up where we are now - no-one has any money to buy anything so we get pitiful growth and all our vital services are in the hands of foreign hedge companies who’e only interest is price-gouging and squeezing as much money out of people as they can.
Wouldn’t it be good if just for one year - some of the energy companies said “You know what? We’ve made more money that we can imagine. Do we really need to increase our prices to maintain our profits this year? Couldn’t we help some freezing pensioner stay warm instead?” Just for one year - then go back to price-gouging to your hearts content next year.
Food and essentials will always need moving. The balance between dry, fresh, and frozen may change though.
Industrial goods are more variable, as are building supplies.
Recessions or slow-downs end when they end. A piece of string answer.
Conor:
We’ve not had a recession. We got close but not actually had one.
True. We aren`t in recession.
Conor:
Look at facts and data, not at the hysterical fear ■■■■ peddling crap the news media put out. UK economy grew 4% in 2022, the highest rate of growth in the G7 but have you seen that reported anywhere? No. They’re too busy peddling fear ■■■■ instead, reporting that the IMF, an organisation that consistently gets forecasts for the UK massively wrong and is constantly raising forecasts its made for the UK, is reporting that the UK will have the worst growth of the G7 and be worst than even Russia in 2023. I’ll believe it when I see it is all I’ll say.
“Look at the facts and data”, agreed.
Is " the IMF, an organisation that consistently gets forecasts for the UK massively wrong and is constantly raising forecasts its made for the UK" accurate? How much is “massively wrong”? bloomberg.com/graphics/2019 … ify%20wall
About as many forecasts were optimistic as were pessimistic.
The UK had bigger growth in 2022 than other G7 countries. True.
But since we were coming from a lower base that is only to be expected. We dragged ourselves up from flat on the floor to half way standing, the other economies were on their feet before us, and are standing up straighter.
Cherry picking one year, and one metric isn`t looking at “the facts”, it is looking at some facts.
The UK is behind all the other G7 countries by not recovering its pre-covid economy. ft.com/content/4edae69b-c82 … d14ca8caa6
Happy Trucker1:
So as the title goes to all those political / economist type drivers out there just when and how does this so called slow down in the economy/ recession end , I know we generally work through and come out the other side but how does it work ,
Even though we are ticking over at work I personally like things to be very busy , don’t mind putting the hours in over the week as hourly paid and tend not to work any weekends and hardly ever out on a Friday night, so as much work in the week for me please .
Looking forward to any explanations
Thanks in advance
JeffA:
The big problem for the last few decades has been the “free-market” theories that have been followed religiously. The end result is a low pay and privatised economy where the money flows to the rich. This is the model most tories saw as children in the Thatcher days and now they can see no alternative. Imagine if the gas companies were still publicly-owned - all those billions flowing straight to the treasury like Norway did with their publicly owned energy company - they’ve got about 500 billion saved that they can spend on whatever they want. All our north sea oil money went on paying dole money following “free market” polices that put everyone out of work so it would be easier to destroy the unions and cut pay.
I heard one economist saying the biggest problem the British economy has is rubbish pay. It sounds good at first if you’re a tory - pay the workers rubbish and let the bosses and shareholders keep everything. Trouble is that after decades of low pay you end up where we are now - no-one has any money to buy anything so we get pitiful growth and all our vital services are in the hands of foreign hedge companies who’e only interest is price-gouging and squeezing as much money out of people as they can.
Wouldn’t it be good if just for one year - some of the energy companies said “You know what? We’ve made more money that we can imagine. Do we really need to increase our prices to maintain our profits this year? Couldn’t we help some freezing pensioner stay warm instead?” Just for one year - then go back to price-gouging to your hearts content next year.
Thatcher just finished the job which Callaghan started.
1960’s America was a better place to be working class than the Soviet Union.
Good luck with the Socialist utopia comrade.
Bigger growth could just be down to the population increasing with the massive immigration numbers we have now. A million people every year would increase gdp regardless of any real ecomo!ic growth:
Growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) = Growth rate of population + growth rate of GDP per capita.
Happy Trucker1:
So as the title goes to all those political / economist type drivers out there just when and how does this so called slow down in the economy/ recession end , I know we generally work through and come out the other side but how does it work
We’ve not had a recession. We got close but not actually had one. Germany on the other hand looks like it may have entered one.
Look at facts and data, not at the hysterical fear ■■■■ peddling crap the news media put out. UK economy grew 4% in 2022, the highest rate of growth in the G7 but have you seen that reported anywhere? No. They’re too busy peddling fear ■■■■ instead, reporting that the IMF, an organisation that consistently gets forecasts for the UK massively wrong and is constantly raising forecasts its made for the UK, is reporting that the UK will have the worst growth of the G7 and be worst than even Russia in 2023. I’ll believe it when I see it is all I’ll say.
Figures have been massaged these past few months to officially keep us out of recession - so far.
Unless something fundamentally changes in the next six weeks however, the economy is going to drop off a cliff anytime after Easter is over - Mark my words!
Tax rises - kick in next month…
Energy price rises - are still in play, despite the market dropping 85% from the highs of exactly a year ago… That means the Government will NOT force these profiteers to lower their prices, nor windfall tax them to decent effect. Bribes have already been paid. The course is already set. Sunak has been told “Get inflation down by the end of the financial year - or you’ll answer for it” by Graham Brady of the 1922 committee.
I can see Sunak over-playing this, and we’ll end up with a deflationary crash later this year, which will start by people tighening their belts come April starting by “not paying their debts en-masse” - Individuals and Small Businesses alike…
Already in London - Labour-voting Car drivers - are up in arms over Khaaan calling them “Right Wing” for objecting to his ULEZ daily charges upon their cars - and these are London residents that voted for him to start with!
People are going to be MUCH poorer come the new financial year. The “Recession” has only been postponed by massaging economic data releases, already massaged to bring stability - but for how much longer can they get away with it?
The link gives you a full calandar or recent, present, and future economic data releases - worldwide.
The Big market movers - are things like:
Interest Rate Decisions (Bank of England and Federal Reserve - move markets the most)
Non-Farm Payrolls (Jobs created in America, usually released 13:30hrs first friday of the month)
Manufacturing Data (Are factories slowing down production, laying people off, etc.)
Inflation Data (easy to massage, by changing what comprises the “basket of goods”)
If Inflation continues HIGH then there’s likely to be another interest rate hike, taking even more money out of mortgage payer’s pockets… There is a strong knock-on effect the above bits of data have on each other, that can and will likely lead to a very sharp downturn in the economy - once people’s personal household budgets reach tipping point…
That tipping point, I reckon is likely to be the “Lull” in Gig Economy work in the quite period right after Easter…
For many people that’ll mean:-
Can’t pay the May Mortgage Payment…
Default the credit card, because there’s not enough to put food on the table otherwise
Have a heart attack - financial stress
Lose your HGV licence as a consequence
Have debt collectors knocking at the door
Get left by your wife
Have another heart attack, but with a DNR tag on you this time around…
…Unless you are reasonably well-heeled at this time, and have not blown your savings across the lockdown as of yet…