Recently been wondering, especially on the back of various other posts on here, what the future is for the industry?
Without wishing to engage in a debate about the reasons the industry is in the state it is, it is clear we are heading for a driver crisis - and fast!
So the facts are:
Old blood is going out of the industry and not being replaced by ‘father to son’ as no new blood coming in to the industry in the way it did - by the drivers who are currently retiring.
The migrant drivers, in the main Eastern European drivers, are no longer coming to this country en masse to ‘prop’ up the industry - if anything the reverse as many are now returning home and the Romanian/Bulgarian influx has just not happened.
DCPC is hindering the retention of current drivers and entry of new drivers.
Agencies cannot recruit drivers fast enough which is endemic of the fact that drivers just aren’t out there.
As I originally said I don’t wish to debate the reasons for the above as they are happening right now and I can’t help but think the industry is heading for a real problem. Look back to around 2004 - 5, the economy was booming and we could not get enough drivers hence the flooding of Eastern European drivers in to the market place - then the economy floundered and crashed and these drivers are not here and not likely to come back in droves.
So what is going to happen - and please we all know why it has happened.
Where does this all end - with few drivers naming their own £/hr rate?
If the Roma and Bulgs dont want the work then the Turks will have them.There will be no driver shortage The drivers would form a queue for £12.00 per hour.
You seem to have a number of facts wrong. There is no “driver crisis”, never has been and never will be imho. There is plenty of new blood coming in to the industry, just take a look at the newbies forum as one example. The DCPC card blustering will as usual come to nothing and all those saying that they won’t do it will soon find the brass when they realise they have no other trades to turn to due to having no experience of them. The claim you have made about the Bulgarian/Romanian driver influx not happening is rather premature imho. I believe it will happen and as for the Poles going back home well I simply don’t agree with that at all. Head over to the East of the country and much of the Southern regions and you’ll find just as many drivers called Marek as you will native English speaking drivers.
LHD - don’t believe I have the facts wrong as I speak as someone with experience in recruitment.
The influx of Bulgarians & Romanians surely would have happened by now so how is it premature to state that it has not happened - it clearly hasn’t.
Yes, in the East, there are lots of Polish drivers but far far fewer than in 2008 - 9 and those that are still here in smaller numbers are looking to set up on their own - check the VOSA A&Ds and you will see for yourself.
Yes there may be new drivers coming in to the industry but you cannot deny that they are not in sufficient numbers to backfill the exodus of drivers through retirement - which in some cases is exacerbated by DCPC.
Are you saying then that there is no crisis looming - because the facts suggest that there is certainly trouble on the horizon bearing in mind the economy is on the up
TM Blogger:
LHD - don’t believe I have the facts wrong as I speak as someone with experience in recruitment.
The influx of Bulgarians & Romanians surely would have happened by now so how is it premature to state that it has not happened - it clearly hasn’t.
Yes, in the East, there are lots of Polish drivers but far far fewer than in 2008 - 9 and those that are still here in smaller numbers are looking to set up on their own - check the VOSA A&Ds and you will see for yourself.
Yes there may be new drivers coming in to the industry but you cannot deny that they are not in sufficient numbers to backfill the exodus of drivers through retirement - which in some cases is exacerbated by DCPC.
Are you saying then that there is no crisis looming - because the facts suggest that there is certainly trouble on the horizon bearing in mind the economy is on the up
That is exactly what I’m saying. I don’t agree with you but that is not surprising given your vested interests from being in the recruitment industry.
The dcpc providers, dvla, recruitment agencies and hauliers have no possible way of knowing how many drivers hold vocational licenses, but don’t use them to drive commercially (myself included), so this September shortage is all based on assumption rather than hard facts.
What will impact driver availability in the future, is the prohibitive cost for many in getting their licenses and the numerous other hoops they will have to jump through to earn as little as £7.50 hour in some quarters. At one time hauliers would take on drivers without this ‘you must have driven 180 days in the last year’ nonsense and would also train them if needed on skips, ro-ro’s tippers etc, but now they all want someone else to have given them the experience. It is the industry itself that is shooting itself in the foot, rather than any external agencies.
LHD - not from the recruitment industry FYI - have experience in recruiting drivers for many years and basing my input on this and the regular posts on the forum which elude to the fact that more drivers are exiting than entering.
So from feedback, so far, we are not heading for some form of driver availability problem (not crisis?!?)
I know there is already a problem in some areas, which will spread and be exacerbated in September. Look at the number of trucks on the road day or night and then reckon every single one needs at least one driver probably 2 plus holiday/sick cover and then tell me how many drivers the haulage industry needs to keep the country running.
Locally some companies have had the foresight to stump up the extra insurance and take on & induct/train new young drivers. Others, blue chip companies among them, are like rabbits in the headlights asking WTF is going on and already asking where the drivers have gone. There are also quite a few of the new drivers had their eyes opened and are looking to move on. As the economy picks up and more jobs become available outside of haulage I can see driving becoming less attractive and those with skills in other trades will return to them. To my mind far too many companies and drivers are still stuck in a 70s mindset.
Way I see it September will be the event that will tip those companies that are currently on a knife edge over the edge, not immediately but maybe over the following 12-18 months.
IF the remaining haulage companies have any sense then they will take the opportunity to halt the race to the bottom and review their rates.
It will take a lot longer for the driver situation to settle down but I’m pretty sure drivers will see significant over inflation rises in 2015 & 2016 and expect agency/casual rates to increase much sooner, probably in the run up to Xmas 2014.
chicane:
Way I see it September will be the event that will tip those companies that are currently on a knife edge over the edge, not immediately but maybe over the following 12-18 months.
IF the remaining haulage companies have any sense then they will take the opportunity to halt the race to the bottom and review their rates.
It will take a lot longer for the driver situation to settle down but I’m pretty sure drivers will see significant over inflation rises in 2015 & 2016 and expect agency/casual rates to increase much sooner, probably in the run up to Xmas 2014.
Not a hope in hell. The same things were said when tachographs arrived, then the same again when digicards arrived. Look what difference they made to driver wages. Surely we should be on about £30 per hour now after all those drivers who said they wouldn’t do it and were packing it in ■■■■■■ off and left such a huge gap in the market? Oh wait…
I know someone who got his HGV license about 6 months ago because he always wanted to drive them and he was so excited about getting his license but i told him the novelty will soon wear off.
He got a job quite easily but it was night trunking and he didnt like it so he recently got a new job day trunking and he is now having to do 12-14 hour shifts and when i recently spoke to him…
he is looking into becoming a train driver as he is fed up doing the long hours for a normal wage !!
I can see job adverts for foreign labour(cheap) in the eastern block before any rates go up. I’ve seen plenty of job adverts recently with ‘must hold full dcpc’ but raise in the rate offered despite the demand for someone they aren’t paying to qualify.
OllieNotts:
I can see job adverts for foreign labour(cheap) in the eastern block already happening before any rates go up. I’ve seen plenty of job adverts recently tell with ‘must hold full dcpc’ tell you anything? but raise in the rate offered despite the demand for someone they aren’t paying to qualify.
Difference between tachos and the digi-card were it either didn’t affect the driver or any cost was insignificant, the DCPC is a significant and ongoing added cost to the driver, even where the company pays for it there are usually strings attached.
Been a driver crisis for bloody years, but no shortage of licence holders, one problem being real transport managers have all but vanished so no bugger can tell the difference between the two any more and no bugger cares.
Until such time as a drivers accident history is electronically attached to their licence and passport, this will continue to be the case, the only people who could force an equivalent system to keep track of quality in the industry are insurers, and i’m surprised they haven’t taken steps.
Juddian:
Been a driver crisis for bloody years, but no shortage of licence holders, one problem being real transport managers have all but vanished so no bugger can tell the difference between the two any more and no bugger cares.
Until such time as a drivers accident history is electronically attached to their licence and passport, this will continue to be the case, the only people who could force an equivalent system to keep track of quality in the industry are insurers, and i’m surprised they haven’t taken steps.
Didn’t those shysters De Poel try something similar a few years ago? I remember reading about them on another forum. Don’t hear much about them anymore though.
Well, if the OP is right, then the inevitable outcome is a sharp increase in wages as hauliers fight for a diminishing supply of drivers. However, there is no sign of this happening right now, if anything wages are still moving downwards.
I see no economic recovery, just pre-election feel-good factor spin, and manipulation of statistics. Unemployment is down for example, but that’s because over 700,000 claimants have been sanctioned and so have disappeared from the figures. Inflation is low, although inflation in essentials remains high, simply because there is little demand for consumer products.
And the elephant in the room is, of course, higher interest rates. Many people are stretched to the absolute limit already, they won’t be spending any more if their mortgage interest payments go up by £4,000 a year or so.
