irishtrucker.com/news/news_d … p?nid=3118
You can be sure that miserable tramp isnt payin full whack for his kerosene.
He’s probably running on red 
, but really what he’s trying to guess is the real price of oil with the speculative bit knocked off the top. A difficult one to work out, BUT as various airlines are grounding older planes and abandonning quieter routes aviation fuel prices may drop. This may not follow for diesel tho’ as part of the problem relates to a lack of refining capacity.
ellies dad:
http://www.irishtrucker.com/news/news_detail.asp?nid=3118You can be sure that miserable tramp isnt payin full whack for his kerosene.
Cut him some slack, he’s Irish 
Speculation about prices rising, and panicing force prices up and the like. Maybe he’s just trying a bit of reverse psychology, by saying oil will be worth a lot less he hopes people will stop pumping so much money into buying crude and prices will fall, never know.
Supposedly the price should drop in theory soon, China is to lower subsidies which will in theory lower demand there and the Saudis are to up production.
But i guess its all in theory no doubt will still increase in price.
He is absolutely right- there is no rational supply & demand reason for wholesale fuel prices to have doubled- it is all being driven by a bubble of speculation, just as house prices were until last year and it will all end in exactly the same way.
Michael O Leary is a very sensible and clever businessman, and well worth listening to for anyone wishing to learn a bit about how business works. IMHO anyway.
Harry Monk:
He is absolutely right- there is no rational supply & demand reason for wholesale fuel prices to have doubled- it is all being driven by a bubble of speculation, just as house prices were until last year and it will all end in exactly the same way.Michael O Leary is a very sensible and clever businessman, and well worth listening to for anyone wishing to learn a bit about how business works. IMHO anyway.
Its not the same as housing harry. Oil is a dwindling resourse,unlike aggregates.
Wishfull thinking i believe, of course we all live in hope that prices will fall…the only thing that will fall is interest rate…or house prices, or me after a night on the ■■■■.
In reality he is talking about 18 months time, something, or someone spooked the oil barons to increase their prices so dramatically. Apparently, the saudis are going to reduce the prices, or at least increase the amount of oil leaving the deep depths of the earth, although i wonder why they put the price up in the first place, or why theyre thinking of reducing it now. Whatever happens, we have got to think of alternative fuels for our power,and transport needs, and then tell all the oil rich nations..Go ■■■■ on an egg, or something in the same drift. We are being held to ransom, by the Russians for the gas and electric, and oil nations for the fuel, and some ginger headed bstard has sold our oil to the europeans, where we could be independant…
It’s just an oil spike, same as we had in the 1970’s (not that I’m old enough to remember that, of course!
Harry Monk:
It’s just an oil spike, same as we had in the 1970’s (not that I’m old enough to remember that, of course!
Its also rumoured that increases of gas (upto 40%) are in the pipeline !
There is no rational Supply and Demand reason for this though, it is all being driven by speculation and will end like the Dutch Tulip Bubble of 1636-1637 did. (this is generally quoted as the earliest example of how a bubble works).
Note the quote about futures trading, which is what is happening now.
The immense expansion of commerce [in the Netherlands] encouraged gambling upon profits to be made from speculation in all kinds of products . … It was the price that had to be paid for the increased efficiency in the complex system of business. But now and again speculation intensified into a frenzy of what the Dutch called windhandel, literally trading in the wind, that is, buying or selling in futures without actual possession of goods.
The most famous example of such gambling was the tulip mania of 1636-37 involving the bulbs of tulips and hyacinths which had become the modish flowers of the day in their myriad new varieties. Rapidly escalating prices spurred the gambling instincts of all sorts of people, especially in the district of Haarlem. …
But suddenly in 1637 after prices had soared to fantastic heights, the speculative castle in the sky collapsed. For those who lost fortunes there was tragedy."
Here’s Michael O’ Leary’s quote in full…
Ryanair has minimal hedging in place but Mr O’Leary is convinced the oil price will fall eventually. “There is no rational supply/demand issue that has caused demand for oil to double in the last 12 months. There’s no shortage of oil,” he said.
“It’s driven by an enormous speculative bubble. Pension funds are now speculating on oil futures. Generally when pension funds get in you are not far away from a crash.”
Again, I can only say that if you ever want to learn about Economics, then you can’t find a better person to learn from than Michael O’ Leary
What I can’t understand, and as far as I have seen nobody has asked before, is why has the displayed pump price of diesel risen to more than that of petrol?? For as far back as I can remember (which is more than enough!) the price of a gallon (or litre) of diesel was always lower than for petrol, until recent times. Is it the rise in sales of diesel engined cars making the oil companies jump onto the “It’s getting more popular so we’ll push up the price” bandwagon? I always thought that as diesel didn’t take as much refining to produce than petrol, then it should be cheaper to buy, or am I missing something here? 
Tax. The Govt put up the tax on diesel, because of particulates.
kickstart:
What I can’t understand, and as far as I have seen nobody has asked before, is why has the displayed pump price of diesel risen to more than that of petrol?? For as far back as I can remember (which is more than enough!) the price of a gallon (or litre) of diesel was always lower than for petrol, until recent times. Is it the rise in sales of diesel engined cars making the oil companies jump onto the “It’s getting more popular so we’ll push up the price” bandwagon? I always thought that as diesel didn’t take as much refining to produce than petrol, then it should be cheaper to buy, or am I missing something here?
The main reason that diesel has gone up faster than petrol is the lack of refining capacity for diesel compared to other products i.e. petrol. Because of this it has been speculated more and higher than petrol. Like Harry says, it’s a bubble (much like property in Hong Kong in the 90s) and will burst when speculators move to the next thing. Share prices apart from oil and mining are much lower than 12 months ago, so when these investors decide to take their cash there you will find the “true cost” of oil.
For once the reason for this is not tax, since in the UK the duty levy on petrol and DERV are the same at 68 pence per litre. Many years ago DERV duty was increased, but this discrepenancy was levelled back probably ten years ago now. In most other countries petrol is rated higher than DERV.
The reason for the current price gap is a mixture of a shortage of refining capacity for diesel, global diesel demand increasing much more strongly than petrol, but mainly commodity speculation.
Mike-C:
Its also rumoured that increases of gas (upto 40%) are in the pipeline !
I assume this information has been leaked?