Carryfast:
When realistically the next election campaign needs to be a straight fight between Corbyn and Batten
Horse Racing punters never back the outsiders in racing. In nearly thirty years of watching other people’s betting (and losing!) habits on the side, I have come to the conclusion that the “Mainstream” of anything at all that it “public behaviour” amounts to “fear of being different in public”. Lose that fear, and then one can get past this self-destructive urge that demands that “It is better to be wrong in a ;arge crowd, than wrong by yourself or in small groups.”
UKIP are now 25-1 and shorter to “win the most seats at the next election”. This is in from 1000-1 just six months ago.
No one is reporting it, if I report it - it will no doubt be written off as “fake news”.
I don’t care what facts the opponents of Brexit choose to believe though. I’m talking about the ultimate predictive nature of human nature here.
What behaviour is most likely to be seen at the next election, where I believe “Those who didn’t vote last time” will be the key to it’s final result?
Will people turn out in droves to support Corbyn, and get him over the line?
Will people turn out to STOP Corbyn?
Will people turn out to support UKIP and get them any number more seats than Zero this time around?
Will people turn out to STOP UKIP?
Take a good long hard look at those four options…
At last year’s general election, a good number of UKIP voters from 2015 - switched to Labour for whatever reason. Maybe it was just to give Theresa May and her air of complacency a “good fright”.
I am looking at what is likely, what is possible and what is probable when looking at the above options.
I would suggest that Corbyn’s high water mark is “already in” with the UKIP migrating vote of last year. The only way for Corbyn then, IMO is Downwards.
People turnout out to STOP Corbyn, even if it turns out to be “unnecessary” - will be supporting who? - The Tories? - Not this time. The Libdems? - Their dead cat bounce from 9 to 12 seats hardly shows any serious rally in the Libdem cause, probably because they’ve shot themselves in the foot by becoming a party of Remain.
Will people turn out to support UKIP? - Almost definitely, if Brexit is not done and completed by March 31st 2019.
Will people turn out to STOP UKIP? - There’s the complacency angle. I don’t think that people will BOTHER to get out and “Stop UKIP” this time around - simply because "How do you knobble a party already on what’s perceived as “Rock Bottom Zero Seats”?
How do you smash up something where the debris is already smashed to bits in turn?
I predict the opponents of UKIP will “not rate UKIPs chances” - and the main casualties of such a “backdoor surge” by UKIP would be those seats where UKIP were second to Labour last time around.
Thus, the same people that got Blair elected, and decided to move on to Cameron (and Cleggy) will end up being the same people who’ll in the future - decide if UKIP get to win more than Zero seats or not…
As for the exact number of seats they need to be involved in Government… It depends if either or both Labour/Conservative Party can muster around 300 seats or not…
If they do, then UKIP, who’ll obviously need more seats than the DUP have right now - would only need 26 seats to form a coalition government with Tory or Labour on 300… Should Tory AND Labour BOTH get 300 seats, with UKIP on 26 - then I would predict that there would be a LabCon pact “just to keep UKIP out” which would leave UKIP as “The official opposition”, and on the Privvy Council.
THIS in turn, is rather similar to what has already happened in Germany where AfD went from zero to 94 seats in one hit, got denied a coalition place by the panicing mainstream parties, and now find THEMselves as “Official Opposition”. Forget their different PR system of voting. Trump managed to harness the “electoral college” system to his advantage, after all - similar to our First-past-the-post system.
The next election is wide open. At present, I would predict a six-way split of parties with over 10 seats apiece.
Once UKIP gain seats at any point in the future - it can only lose those seats again this time around - with a Brexit completed to the Public’s satisfaction.
Since Remainers are not going to be happy with ANY kind of Brexit - there’s no point in the centerists trying to placate them. Don’t bother. It’s Hard Brexit or NO Brexit from here on in, with the mainstream politicians paying the price for their feet of clay for as long as they’ve been kicking the ball down the road with. 
Winseer:
Horse Racing punters never back the outsiders in racing. In nearly thirty years of watching other people’s betting (and losing!) habits on the side, I have come to the conclusion that the “Mainstream” of anything at all that it “public behaviour” amounts to “fear of being different in public”. Lose that fear, and then one can get past this self-destructive urge that demands that “It is better to be wrong in a ;arge crowd, than wrong by yourself or in small groups.”UKIP are now 25-1 and shorter to “win the most seats at the next election”. This is in from 1000-1 just six months ago.
No one is reporting it, if I report it - it will no doubt be written off as “fake news”.
I don’t care what facts the opponents of Brexit choose to believe though. I’m talking about the ultimate predictive nature of human nature here.What behaviour is most likely to be seen at the next election, where I believe “Those who didn’t vote last time” will be the key to it’s final result?
Will people turn out in droves to support Corbyn, and get him over the line?
Will people turn out to STOP Corbyn?
Will people turn out to support UKIP and get them any number more seats than Zero this time around?
Will people turn out to STOP UKIP?Take a good long hard look at those four options…
At last year’s general election, a good number of UKIP voters from 2015 - switched to Labour for whatever reason. Maybe it was just to give Theresa May and her air of complacency a “good fright”.I am looking at what is likely, what is possible and what is probable when looking at the above options.
I would suggest that Corbyn’s high water mark is “already in” with the UKIP migrating vote of last year. The only way for Corbyn then, IMO is Downwards.
People turnout out to STOP Corbyn, even if it turns out to be “unnecessary” - will be supporting who? - The Tories? - Not this time. The Libdems? - Their dead cat bounce from 9 to 12 seats hardly shows any serious rally in the Libdem cause, probably because they’ve shot themselves in the foot by becoming a party of Remain.
Will people turn out to support UKIP? - Almost definitely, if Brexit is not done and completed by March 31st 2019.
Will people turn out to STOP UKIP? - There’s the complacency angle. I don’t think that people will BOTHER to get out and “Stop UKIP” this time around - simply because "How do you knobble a party already on what’s perceived as “Rock Bottom Zero Seats”?How do you smash up something where the debris is already smashed to bits in turn?
I predict the opponents of UKIP will “not rate UKIPs chances” - and the main casualties of such a “backdoor surge” by UKIP would be those seats where UKIP were second to Labour last time around.
Thus, the same people that got Blair elected, and decided to move on to Cameron (and Cleggy) will end up being the same people who’ll in the future - decide if UKIP get to win more than Zero seats or not…As for the exact number of seats they need to be involved in Government… It depends if either or both Labour/Conservative Party can muster around 300 seats or not…
If they do, then UKIP, who’ll obviously need more seats than the DUP have right now - would only need 26 seats to form a coalition government with Tory or Labour on 300… Should Tory AND Labour BOTH get 300 seats, with UKIP on 26 - then I would predict that there would be a LabCon pact “just to keep UKIP out” which would leave UKIP as “The official opposition”, and on the Privvy Council.THIS in turn, is rather similar to what has already happened in Germany where AfD went from zero to 94 seats in one hit, got denied a coalition place by the panicing mainstream parties, and now find THEMselves as “Official Opposition”. Forget their different PR system of voting. Trump managed to harness the “electoral college” system to his advantage, after all - similar to our First-past-the-post system.
The next election is wide open. At present, I would predict a six-way split of parties with over 10 seats apiece.
Once UKIP gain seats at any point in the future - it can only lose those seats again this time around - with a Brexit completed to the Public’s satisfaction.
Since Remainers are not going to be happy with ANY kind of Brexit - there’s no point in the centerists trying to placate them. Don’t bother. It’s Hard Brexit or NO Brexit from here on in, with the mainstream politicians paying the price for their feet of clay for as long as they’ve been kicking the ball down the road with.
Some races like the Grand National are usually better with betting on outsiders and betting on the favourites in the Derby.
Have to say though that Cameron/Clegg voters and Blair voters obviously ain’t going to vote for Leaving the EU.While it’s anyone’s guess what the previous non vote will do.While it’s a reasonable bet that the numerous brainwashed youth vote,who were moaning about not being able to vote in the EU referendum,will be old enough to vote in the next General Election even if it’s held as early as the Autumn.In which case the LibDems seem to be the biggest benificiaries which is maybe what remainer May is counting on.While like UKIP’s fortunes unfortunately the Leave vote was always about an aggregate based vote not a constituency based one.On that note if it was all about making a few bob on an outside bet regarding the most seats ‘gained’ my money would be on the LibDems sufficient to form a new remain alliance with the Cons or even Labour and that will be the end of Brexit for sure.Bearing in mind that even Raab has confirmed to me that Brexit will ultimately be decided by General Election not the deliberately non binding referendum. 
I’ve voted for the Libdems more often than any other party in my life! - and I voted Leave!
Now I’ve done that, the Libdems don’t represents me any longer, and consequently I’ll never vote Libdem again.
If May fudges Brexit, then I’ll not be voting Conservative again, neither.
Labour still have not come up with a plan for a Brexit of their own, so I’ve yet to vote Labour for the first time in my life.
I’ve only voted UKIP twice so far - in the 2015 general election, and in the MEP Euro elections, where UKIP ended up winning the most seats of the UK MEPs’.
UKIP remain outsiders for the next general election - but like my analogy regarding Horse Racing - “big priced winners” happen in Horse Racing nearly every day. Not just in the massive highly competetive fields like the Grand National or Derby either. One’s best bet in either of these races is to back one of the outsiders - and back them each way, so you can still get a nice payoff for finishing 4th, 5th, or even 6th with today’s bookmaker bonuses they offer about the big races…
I’m not saying UKIP represent a value bet @ the 25-1 they are now to “win the most seats at the next election” - that value was when UKIP were 1000-1 purely because they have zero seats. A shrewdie would have noticed that the AfD in Germany went from zero seats to 94 seats in one hit - but alas, when I observed that happen, the 1000-1 had already shortened to 200-1, and I let it be. I also tipped Keir Starmer to be the next PM to Labour-voting Punters I know… HE was 1000-1 at the last election “to be Prime Minister by the end of 2020”… He is now quoted at 40-1 now, having been as short as 16-1 earlier this year…
I reckon the betting odds on these political characters bear watching for more accurate data than what any “Opinion Poll” will give you - as betting odds are averaged out all over the country by the actual weight of people’s money wagered upon the event in question.
Last year had a nice win from a tenner bet at 40-1 odds that Corbyn’s Labour would win between 250 and 299 seats… He was odds-on at that moment to LOSE between 50 and 100 seats btw… THAT is the low-optimism moment you grab that value bet of course…
At present, I have a tenner on at 66-1 that Graham Brady (“Northern Powerhouse”) will be the next PM after Theresa May falls… That price has since gone out to 100-1, so the value is still there, if you think it’ll be the 1922 committee that ultimately brings May down, as I do. 
I might pump it again, as we get closer to the Autumn Budget that could seriously do with being sidestepped… Eye-watering tax hikes in the pipeline - IF May and Hammond are still in Downing Street by that point!
Winseer:
I’ve voted for the Libdems more often than any other party in my life! - and I voted Leave!Now I’ve done that, the Libdems don’t represents me any longer, and consequently I’ll never vote Libdem again.
If May fudges Brexit, then I’ll not be voting Conservative again, neither.
Labour still have not come up with a plan for a Brexit of their own, so I’ve yet to vote Labour for the first time in my life.
I’ve only voted UKIP twice so far - in the 2015 general election, and in the MEP Euro elections, where UKIP ended up winning the most seats of the UK MEPs’.
UKIP remain outsiders for the next general election - but like my analogy regarding Horse Racing - “big priced winners” happen in Horse Racing nearly every day. Not just in the massive highly competetive fields like the Grand National or Derby either. One’s best bet in either of these races is to back one of the outsiders - and back them each way, so you can still get a nice payoff for finishing 4th, 5th, or even 6th with today’s bookmaker bonuses they offer about the big races…
I’m not saying UKIP represent a value bet @ the 25-1 they are now to “win the most seats at the next election” - that value was when UKIP were 1000-1 purely because they have zero seats. A shrewdie would have noticed that the AfD in Germany went from zero seats to 94 seats in one hit - but alas, when I observed that happen, the 1000-1 had already shortened to 200-1, and I let it be. I also tipped Keir Starmer to be the next PM to Labour-voting Punters I know… HE was 1000-1 at the last election “to be Prime Minister by the end of 2020”… He is now quoted at 40-1 now, having been as short as 16-1 earlier this year…
I reckon the betting odds on these political characters bear watching for more accurate data than what any “Opinion Poll” will give you - as betting odds are averaged out all over the country by the actual weight of people’s money wagered upon the event in question.
Last year had a nice win from a tenner bet at 40-1 odds that Corbyn’s Labour would win between 250 and 299 seats… He was odds-on at that moment to LOSE between 50 and 100 seats btw… THAT is the low-optimism moment you grab that value bet of course…
At present, I have a tenner on at 66-1 that Graham Brady (“Northern Powerhouse”) will be the next PM after Theresa May falls… That price has since gone out to 100-1, so the value is still there, if you think it’ll be the 1922 committee that ultimately brings May down, as I do.
Ironically I also dabbled with the LibDems when I was younger and more naive but then only at local level concerning specific local ( Green Belt protection ) matters.As then which Cable has now absolutely confirmed the lies which they use to get elected.It was only after that I also asked myself the question how can these lying muppets be standing on a local local democracy ticket when at the same time they are committed to the Federal EU government system.So then added local elections to my usual policy of refusing to vote.
Does that make me think that my view is not just a tiny negligable minority of the LibDem or non vote.No.The Lib Dems are hopelessly lost to the EU agenda if not lying infiltrating rabble like the SNP saying anything to get into power and the remainers know it.With May as good as telling them that everything she’s done so far and the resulting next election will be a purpose made attempt to re create the previous LibDemCon coalition of remainers for remainers and that’s how the Con remain vote will also probably vote accordingly on a tactical basis.IE don’t under estimate the remain vote on a constituency basis or its resulting willingness to vote for the LibDems.Which leaves the question is the Leave vote as willing to get behind Batten and UKIP and even if it does can UKIP win on a constituency electoral basis v an aggregate based one.IE can a flat race horse win the Grand National.
Bearing in mind that Labour nor the Cons are really for leaving the EU.Let alone any of them supporting Robinson’s cause.Let alone as Batten unarguably does.To which For Britain’s answer to that is let’s split whatever bleedin vote we can get together behind Batten. 
I’m quite happy to vote for Batton’s UKIP, even though I’ve not voted for Batton’s anything so far.
If I can move from Libdem to Ukip to Tory and back to Ukip again, then I’m sure a lot of other people will be thinking along the same lines…
Just to keep everyone in the loop, TR’s retrial has been adjourned until 27/09/2018 because the CPS hasn’t filed the prosecution papers on time, still at the Old Bailey though. Looks like the CPS are finding it very difficult to find any suitable lies to take their continued persecution, sorry prosecution, much further forward.
Whilst yer all ■■■■■■■’ about Political Party’s, UKIP is funded by the same people as the Tory party and will always be a a Tory Lite party and we have seen just how much their leader has put Britain first in delivering the democratic vote, and now the Laughing Stock Party, after being a labour supporter and a trade unionist all my adult life there is nothing positive I can say about them ! I very much doubt they will be around as the Laughing Stock Party within 5 years, they have sold out to the alter of diversity, the RoP and the far left. I recently posted on the Momentum website that I would stake £1000.00 of my own money that within 5 years they would be called the Moslem Party of Britain, funnily enough no-one, as of this point in time, has taken me up on my bet, definite sign of a loser group of people, can’t even bet on themselves lol
There is only one Political Party that will deal with our exit from the EU Mafia and the islamification of Britain, make OUR STREETS safer and take OUR COUNTRY forwards instead of continuously backwards !
The For Britain Movement and AMWaters, Onwards and Upwards ! FBM AMW NFSE !
Regards
Dave Penn;
DavePenn, i get where you are coming from.
But, the time is coming when loyalists patriots nationalists, call us what you will, will have to agree to bury our differences (which are minor and hardly worth the mention anyway) because its increasingly us against the one party with two faces state, and we need to unite to make any headway because splitting our votes and allegiances between a few minority parties will ensure our eventual extinction.
What i haven’t quite worked out is why Farage was so insistent on banning ex BNP and EDL members from UKIP, making it quite plain they were unwelcome, what did the party gain from this, or is there more to Farage than many of us have realised?
Well i know some ex BNP chaps and they aint the raving violent skin head nutters that the media would have one believe, they are quite simply reliable genuine working class patriots who realised that no one spoke for them and the BNP did, at the time anyway.
And to compound this, why hasn’t Batten who is thankfully unfraid to speak his mind ie in the case of TR, made moves to allow those previously proscribed members in to UKIP, or made pacts with the alternative patriotic movements.
I think some of us can see the future for this country, and if we carry on as now it’s a bleak one for our children and their children…but not so bleak for multi millionaries like Blair (and his progeny eh) who together with his cohorts is responsible for much of what has happened both here, in europe and the middle east following his disastrous following Bush into Iraq, though i am not absolving any of those in the house of ill repute who voted for death and destruction in other countries that were sod all to do with us anyway.
Oh the irony, from war monger to peace envoy, you couldn’t have made that one up if you’d been incarcerated in a nut house
Juddian:
DavePenn, i get where you are coming from.
But, the time is coming when loyalists patriots nationalists, call us what you will, will have to agree to bury our differences (which are minor and hardly worth the mention anyway) because its increasingly us against the one party with two faces state, and we need to unite to make any headway because splitting our votes and allegiances between a few minority parties will ensure our eventual extinction.What i haven’t quite worked out is why Farage was so insistent on banning ex BNP and EDL members from UKIP, making it quite plain they were unwelcome, what did the party gain from this, or is there more to Farage than many of us have realised?
Well i know some ex BNP chaps and they aint the raving violent skin head nutters that the media would have one believe, they are quite simply reliable genuine working class patriots who realised that no one spoke for them and the BNP did, at the time anyway.
And to compound this, why hasn’t Batten who is thankfully unfraid to speak his mind ie in the case of TR, made moves to allow those previously proscribed members in to UKIP, or made pacts with the alternative patriotic movements.I think some of us can see the future for this country, and if we carry on as now it’s a bleak one for our children and their children…but not so bleak for multi millionaries like Blair (and his progeny eh) who together with his cohorts is responsible for much of what has happened both here, in europe and the middle east following his disastrous following Bush into Iraq, though i am not absolving any of those in the house of ill repute who voted for death and destruction in other countries that were sod all to do with us anyway.
Oh the irony, from war monger to peace envoy, you couldn’t have made that one up if you’d been incarcerated in a nut house
Put it this way.What’s more likely to succeed.Telling the immigrant communities that there are going to have to be some ‘changes’ along the lines that their allegiance is to this country and its society or they can zb off.The bulldozing of Saudi funded mosques and declaring Wahabbist/Salafist Islamic practices illegal here hopefully being part of that.In addition to the fact that we can’t go on with an open door immigration policy without swamping the country and making its indigenous demographic an ethnic minority in its own country.Also thereby turning it into the type of zb hole that those immigrant communities are supposedly running from.
Or do we say something much stronger and more in the electorate’s face or even the perception of that ?.Resulting in the inevitable cries from the bleeding heart anti nation state rabble that we are all racist bigots etc etc etc etc etc with a resulting vote in,or possibly even our forced removal from,the make or break for this country future coming election.To the advantage of the same old Lab/LibDem/Con establishment bunch of crooks.While you’ve effectively said it yourself. Batten is as good as we’re going to get.While if he has to then go along with sidelining that latter agenda and let’s say over the top message,for the obvious tactical reasons explained above,then so be it.Just swallow your pride and get on board behind him.How difficult can it be.
^^ so get on board with someone who whilst accepting your votes and donations would refuse to acknowledge you right to exist, or in the case of Farage, look at you with disgust on his face, no ta.
when what’s inevitably coming finally arrives, these who can’t stand the EDl/Football Lads/Tommy Supporters, will be wishing they had them standing beside when the crap really hits the fan, the irony
Juddian:
^^ so get on board with someone who whilst accepting your votes and donations would refuse to acknowledge you right to exist, or in the case of Farage, look at you with disgust on his face, no ta.when what’s inevitably coming finally arrives, these who can’t stand the EDL/Football Lads/Tommy Supporters, will be wishing they had them standing beside when the crap really hits the fan, the irony
Ironically from what I’ve heard Batten can’t work with Farage.While if Batten doesn’t recognise TR’s right to ‘exist’ then sympathy with/supporting his cause would be a bleedin strange way of doing it.While if I’ve got it right didn’t TR himself also ditch the EDL as being an extremist liability to his agenda ?.So why the double standards regarding Batten rightly also being cautious about who UKIP is associated with ?.IE it’s going to be all about treading a very fine line in how we go about creating the required vote base to get rid of the LabLibDemCon alliance.While you seem to be way over exaggerating,if not misconstrueing any supposed UKIP complicity with the establishment agenda,while equally understating its very real and effective opposition to it.Why and who gains from that ?.
As for your seeming support of the EDL ? while at the same time effectively calling the indigenous community lazy v race to the bottom work all hours Asian competition,you couldn’t make it up.It would be interesting to find out what Maggie Thatcher’s father’s shop opening times were in the day in that regard.
The best thing that can happen to UKIP is that it aborbs the other so-called “Far” Right parties. That means offering an olive branch to TR, and changing the house rules to facilitate that if need be.
In my neighborhood, this rather hard looking lass stood for a seat with UKIP’s Mark Reckless winning it on his by-election.
She ended up getting a third of the votes that the Monster Raving Loony candidate polled.
I would argue that any current “Far Right” voters wasting their votes on these parties that really ARE that way inclined - would be better to swing behind UKIP in the future.
If you have 1hr 40 mins to spare, and you thought we lived in a fair and free country, i suggest you watch this latest video of Tommy being interviewed by Ezra Levant.
davepenn54:
Just to keep everyone in the loop, TR’s retrial has been adjourned until 27/09/2018 because the CPS hasn’t filed the prosecution papers on time, still at the Old Bailey though. Looks like the CPS are finding it very difficult to find any suitable lies to take their continued persecution, sorry prosecution, much further forward.Whilst yer all ■■■■■■■’ about Political Party’s, UKIP is funded by the same people as the Tory party and will always be a a Tory Lite party and we have seen just how much their leader has put Britain first in delivering the democratic vote, and now the Laughing Stock Party, after being a labour supporter and a trade unionist all my adult life there is nothing positive I can say about them ! I very much doubt they will be around as the Laughing Stock Party within 5 years, they have sold out to the alter of diversity, the RoP and the far left. I recently posted on the Momentum website that I would stake £1000.00 of my own money that within 5 years they would be called the Moslem Party of Britain, funnily enough no-one, as of this point in time, has taken me up on my bet, definite sign of a loser group of people, can’t even bet on themselves lol
There is only one Political Party that will deal with our exit from the EU Mafia and the islamification of Britain, make OUR STREETS safer and take OUR COUNTRY forwards instead of continuously backwards !
The For Britain Movement and AMWaters, Onwards and Upwards ! FBM AMW NFSE !
Regards
Dave Penn;
In 1970 this country made the mistake of electing Heath having rallied because of Powell’s arguments - only for Powell to get completely condemned to the back benches thereafter.
Heath could and should have gone into coalition to stay in power in February 1974, but decided to let Wilson (with only 4 more seats, and losing the popular vote) - form a MINORITY government instead. A different way of playing it from Theresa May’s “Cling to power at any cost”.
If Momentum are to become the Muslim Party, in any shape or form - they wouldn’t be able to take your bet anyways - if you think about it.
It is the mainstream politicians that say things like “I’m not a betting person but…” that we should hurl all our contempt at in our time.
People who sit on the fence for as long as they can, trying to appeal to opposite sides of major issues. Corbyn pretends he is sitting on the fence over Brexit for example. If the Tories complete Brexit, then he’ll campaign for “continuing the UK under Brexit”. If Brexit was overturned, then he’ll pretend he was “against it all along”, and “should be PM because the Tories got it wrong”.
The Libdems - we know where we stand. Those rump of Libdem supporters that continue to back this party - have got to be the very Liberal Elites that we used to call the 1%?
We cannot argue that the 1% are the “Tory Riche” after all. Rees-Mogg keeps getting slagged off because he’s a toff, and that momentum sidekick “Class War” stunt the other day against Mogg’s kids - was an outright disgrace! 
I don’t see UKIP as ever being “Tory Lite” though. That was Tony Blair’s “Nu Labour”!
If anything - UKIP are, and continue to be “Tory Special Brew”, notorious for getting us truckers into trouble - should plod find empty cans of it floating around in our footwells!
As such, UKIP taking on Tommy Robinson, and maybe Jayda Fransen as well - “fits the plan” rather than “Gits the plan”.
People are not going to elect UKIP on the back of “Don’t like Labour” or “don’t like Tory” though.
They will get elected on “Brexit won’t happen otherwise”. If Theresa May falls, a Brexiteer PM takes over, and is duly completed before the next election - then UKIP and the Libdems stand to be wiped out once and for all, - but for reasons of “obselescence” more than anything else.
I reckon Labour fear such a danger, because if May fell - someone like Mogg could become PM feasibly without a general election taking place.
My bet though (Literally!) is that it won’t be Mogg or Johnson becoming PM - but someone else from the 1922 committee like Graham Brady, with possibly Rees-Mogg as his Chancellor, and Boris moved to the Home Office. Javid could be shunted to the Foreign Office, to tell as many foreigners “at source” - “Not to bloody well bother coming to Britain in the FIRST place in future”!
That message coming from a Muslim - might just be taken a little more seriously than coming from a UKIP minister of course… 
Update on TR’s trial on Thurs 27/09/18 the CPS have added 2 extra charges now and have offered TR a plea deal, plead guilty and walk away or stand up for yourself and face upto 2yrs jail time! The extra charges are simply down to the repeating of things that were already in the public domain and criticism of a political ideology that masquerades as a RoP. We now find ourselves unable to make any kind of criticism of the RoP or it’s total incompatibility with Western society or it’s values, because our corrupt political elite have allowed islamic blasphemy laws to be introduced by stealth into OUR COUNTRY, this is sharia law being imposed on our majority society by a tiny minority of society, WAKE UP folks, we are being taken over !
#iamtommy #freemelshaw FBM AMW NFSE !
Regards
Dave Penn;
There’ll never be a ukip government. They got 3 million votes and only one mp. Unless you live in a marginal constituany your vote is almost worthless. Even if there was a ukip government, they’d never get anything past the house of lords, filled with libdems, Blair’s and actual lords. All appointed with jobs for life.
Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk
Who’s to say an incoming UKIP government wouldn’t be forced to accept a 2nd referendum, because they agree to it ONLY if they can add some extra questions to the ballot paper… Such as “Abolish the House of Lords” or "reduce the number of contituencies in Urban areas, where the seats never ever change hands otherwise.
There should Not be any person or group or people that can act against the public majority with impunity in this country.
UKIP currently do badly at elections - because it’s supporters are spread up and down the land, and don’t really have much of a stronghold to speak of.
Actually, I reckon that even if UKIP won the most seats at the next election - they would STILL not be “in government”, but would become Her Majesty’s Opposition instead. This would be similar to what has happened to AfD in Germany. Schulz is in the record being reluctant to go into coalition with Angela Merkel - "Because it would leave AfD as the official opposition, where News channels now have to broadcast AfD speeches, not abuse them, etc. They have some pretty decent rights now they are “The official opposition” party.
Meanwhile, Die Linke and Die Grune, despite apparently being nowhere following their poor showing in the last election - “are still going to be looked at as potential coalition partners” by the big mainstream parties before AfD will be countenenced. This practially guarantees that AfD will NEVER be in ANY government - without an outright majority, which we know “never happens in Germany”.
I fear that the UK might be along those lines in terms of election results in the future, - which would suit the EU absolutely fine of course!
No Power, Endless weak coalitions, goverments coming and going with ever-more-regular haste.
Meanwhile, the EU contributions go on and on- because we have NOT Left the EU - until we at very least stop paying a penny to Brussels in any shape or form.
Why are you lot so obsessed with money anyway?
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chrisdalott:
Why are you lot so obsessed with money anyway?Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk
I’ve been accused of being “obsessed with money” my entire adult life.
Didn’t we used to call such a thing “Ambition”? 
I didn’t get a HGV licence so I could look forward to working 50-60 hours per week for the same hourly rate I got 20 years ago.
I resist “downward mobility”, so that over time - I expect and chase the concept of “less hours for more pay”.
If I can’t get both at the same time, then one out of two will do - for now.
Few firms want to pay top dollar these days - so “lower hours” has to be the thing to chase then.
No OVER 48 hours per week contracts for ME!
How does one get overtime - if you’re contracted to work a 55 hour week?
You’re already 7 hours pw over the reference period average… That would mean “no overtime, ever”.
To get overtime, and a decent wage built up - you therefore need a weekly contracted hours of LESS than 48.
If the firm doesn’t pay overtime - you want as higher headline wage as possible. NOT made up of “allowances”.
I guess if people like me were Labour MPs - then we might still have a functioning Labour party in this country. Instead, people like me have been driven away, and replaced by others who expect someone else to pay, but don’t offer to put anything in.
Believe me - if someone offered me £20ph to drive a truck - I’d be doing all the hours I could do legally!
The final effect of any “influence” up society by Tommy Robinson is that it might one day "Get the Labour Party OUT of bed with the militant “Generation Entitlement”, and their “encouraged to become Entitled” allies.
The future - is wealth CREATION rather than wealth destruction. It doesn’t take a genius to see that if we’re no longer allowed to blame our actual enemies for our woes - then we’ll end up blaming OURSELVES.
This would especially be the case - if at the next election, people end up voting for Labour’s current policy set - because they fear that less than what Tommy Robinson is preaching.
Unite the Right. There are even plans to keep on pushing for this 2nd referendum - with the THIRD option on the ballot paper there purely to “split the Brexit vote” or even “encourage them not to vote at all” second time around. Guess what? - THAT is how they RIG the result, and deliver us back into the arms of “Matrix EU” where UK worker’s labour - goes to feed the wasting machine that is the EU, enabling it to abuse other countries, whilst sipping their bollinger in the glass towers.
“Let not Robinson be treated as a Latter-Day Heretic” then.