I spent some time,prior to University,working for a company called E.C.Transport,so I can claim to have some operational transport experience.I now work for 2 private equity funds,who invest,amongst other things,in logistics operations,throughout Europe.
I have recently been following the UK market more closely,and note recent activity by E.Stobbart(Stock Market floation,purchase of Irlam,Innovate-from receivers etc),as well as the fall of Pawson,McFarlane etc).Wincanton and TDG are also often in the headlines.There are still large groups,getting larger.That seems mainly to be due to their customer base being large FMCG organisations,who agree to fuel escalator clauses etc.Those hauliers working in building materials or construction sectors are seeing a downturn in their business already.
The medium size private companies seem most at risk,from the present diesel fuel rises,and often have a mix of spot and contract work.While contract work may include a fuel escalator,spot work clearly does not.
Specialist hauliers still seem to be able to maintain margins,but that is a small group of hauliers,when looking at the total market.Freight forwarders seem,at this point,better insulated from the hurricanes hitting the market,as they can take advantage of the ‘‘market price’’ for part of their input costs.
Where will this all end? It’s difficult to predict at present,but it’s also clear that the UK(and other markets) are now in a serious downturn.One only has to look at recent Stock Market performance to see that.
If the government will not reduce either fuel duty or ■■■■■■■■■■ VAT on diesel,we will have to wait for the moment when diesel demand is outstripped by supply,to see a reduction in fuel costs.Fiscal action by governments seems,at this point,to be a remote possibility.
If hauliers were bankers-then the goivernments would listen!!
