Self driving trucks by 2021? A pipedream or reality?

Rjan:
It may not be written in stone, but it is extant, and I’d only return to the point I made in my previous post, that some socialists seem to forget that we don’t live in a socialist society, and today’s workers want to be confident that socialists aren’t going to kill workers in the process of getting there.

Indeed the society you envisage is not even one formally envisaged by Marx, since in both “socialist” and “communist” society workers still had to work, the difference (compared to capitalist society) was that workers were in control of the means of production, and without the need to toil to support the extravagant lifestyles of an overclass, what modest work needed to be done to support ourselves would be divided fairly.

This automatic society of yours, and that advanced by UBIers in general, does not appear to involve such a prior transfer of wealth and power to workers (i.e. to those who are currently workers - by your own admission, they won’t be workers after automation has taken place).

So again I say, that I am not talking about a tweeking of the current system.
I question whether we will be living in a capitalist society if automation continues. Not tomorrow but at some future point.
In the world seen by Marx there was still need for the majority to do physical work. Maybe that will no longer hold true?
Likely or not, it needs to be considered, unlikley events happen every day. We can all se the results of failing to allow for rare events.

I am not proposing anything as being better or as a goal. I am exploring the possibilities. It isnt "my society". As Capitalism isnt written in stone for our future, neither are previously envisaged socialist and communist societies.
Free yourself from the dreams of the 19th century! :smiley:

Rjan:
Rather, it seems to pre-suppose that if we allow the corporations to drive automation, then the capitalist owner will simply recede from the picture for unstated reasons, and some sort of high-minded working elite will emerge who work to create and maintain the machines, but expecting nothing in return from the great masses who are now engaged exclusively in leisure.

I have said that I dont know how we can arrive at a new system. A gradual change is difficult to envisage,and I dont wish for violent revolution.

Rjan:
In this society, work is absolutely imperative, not just for simplistic reasons that it obviously attracts a wage, but because a worker’s labour is his power in every respect.

A strike by welders or paint sprayers in car plants doesnt hold much fear for manufacturers. A workers labour is his power only if a machine cannot do his work.

Rjan:
Socialists should not be promoting the abolition of any job on grounds of dirt or undesirability, unless there is already an equally powerful job for the man to go to. Not any old job, not a job with the same wage, not a dole funded by machines, but a job that means he has clout amongst other people in his daily life, because that’s what’s really important.

You use the word “dole” in a pejorative way. There is a hangover from the idle ruling classes telling the “born and bred” “salt of the earth” working classes to get earn their keep and be proud there!
I am talking about sharing what may be produced for very little cost by machines. Not a measly subsistence level dole, but a decent income given as a right, not as a charity. Something all are entitled to, not a big wedge for a few “high born” and a pittance for the rest.

Rjan:
And that’s what the capitalists intend to destroy with automation. They don’t intend to eliminate work! Hahaha, no! They only intend to eliminate any work that gives a man clout, and replace it with work which gives him no say - no say over his terms, no say over how the work is done, no say over his wage, no say over whether he is even the man to do the work that day instead of another.

I am not sure that the present system does much long term planning, and may not be said to have long term plans or intentions.
As a reactive competitive capitalist system, it will follow short term* expediencies in order to survive. Those (especially smaller companies with little resources) will go for quick cheap solutions.
Governments look too often to the next election and not further forward.
Should long term planning be left to business or politicians? And what alternatives are there?
No answer from me.

*Yes, what are short and long terms? In energy terms bigger companies are now investing in longer looking plans than previously.

Franglais:

Rjan:

So again I say, that I am not talking about a tweeking of the current system.
I question whether we will be living in a capitalist society if automation continues. Not tomorrow but at some future point.
In the world seen by Marx there was still need for the majority to do physical work. Maybe that will no longer hold true?
Likely or not, it needs to be considered, unlikley events happen every day. We can all se the results of failing to allow for rare events.

I am not proposing anything as being better or as a goal. I am exploring the possibilities. It isnt "my society". As Capitalism isnt written in stone for our future, neither are previously envisaged socialist and communist societies.
Free yourself from the dreams of the 19th century! :smiley:

It’s not so much that I’m a slave to the dreams of the 19th century. I agree with you that capitalist relations are clearly capable of being disrupted by a sudden reduction in the need for many kinds of labour - that’s why they’re worried about it, too.

But a vaguely communist society of leisure is not the only alternative.

Another alternative like I say is the maintenance of the existing regime, but with a greatly increased amount of makework designed primarily to serve the fancies of the capitalist owners and the working elite as consumers (I give the example of washing their cars on a more regular basis, but it can also be cleaning their houses, or their shoes, or whatever), and with the creation of artificially complex economic management roles with strong bargaining power for them to occupy (think financiers). The main function of the artificial complexity being both to increase the amount of experience necessary to run society as we know it, and to keep that experience in their hands, since they control the dissemination and reproduction of that experience.

Capitalism has already responded to the electronics and computer revolution in this fashion, by cleaving workers into an overpaid elite who manage a large amount of artificial complexity, and an underpaid mass who mostly engage in a large amount of makework). There’s no reason to believe this won’t go further.

A third alternative, if truly work cannot be found for workers to do, is what in the farming industry they call “depopulation”. It may be at the hands of a fascist regime - likely one that claims to be the guarantor of the environment and the climate.

But it could as easily be at the hands of disorganised violence and social collapse, because with no work to do, no useful role to perform, then the worker becomes like the pig that doesn’t grow meat - it doesn’t matter to the farmer whether they live or die.

It is the need for work to be done that gives the working class power - ultimate power, because if workers are killed then the elite too will perish, like the parasite must perish if the host is killed.

But if machines do all the work, then that equation is changed dramatically.

Rjan:
Rather, it seems to pre-suppose that if we allow the corporations to drive automation, then the capitalist owner will simply recede from the picture for unstated reasons, and some sort of high-minded working elite will emerge who work to create and maintain the machines, but expecting nothing in return from the great masses who are now engaged exclusively in leisure.

I have said that I dont know how we can arrive at a new system. A gradual change is difficult to envisage,and I dont wish for violent revolution.

Me neither, but then I suggest nobody should be wishing for the end of work. The need for work is one of the factors that balances power relations in society as we know it

Moreover, as I’ve said, the desire to do work - in moderation, and in a form that we have some control over (in other words, in a form that sets it apart from the worst kind of jobs in capitalist society, but which is often consistent with the best jobs in capitalist society) - is part of our humanity.

“Somewhat less work!”, “More control over our work!”, these are the sensible demands of the working class, and that was the vision that Marx set out for a socialist society, not a society with no work, where it will not matter to anyone else whether you get out of bed or not to perform your leisure. As I say, if you look at the rich who can live life like that, they by-and-large choose not to, because it is a life in which there would be a richness of material wealth and yet an utter poverty of meaning and purpose.

Rjan:
In this society, work is absolutely imperative, not just for simplistic reasons that it obviously attracts a wage, but because a worker’s labour is his power in every respect.

A strike by welders or paint sprayers in car plants doesnt hold much fear for manufacturers. A workers labour is his power only if a machine cannot do his work.

Exactly. But machines cannot do all kinds of work anyway. There is no machine to which you can simply express a demand for coal, and it will then devise a plan from scratch to get it and create all the intermediary machines to physically extract it and deliver it. Machines actually cost a lot in human labour to devise, assemble, maintain, and to reproduce future generations of humans capable of doing the same.

Rjan:
Socialists should not be promoting the abolition of any job on grounds of dirt or undesirability, unless there is already an equally powerful job for the man to go to. Not any old job, not a job with the same wage, not a dole funded by machines, but a job that means he has clout amongst other people in his daily life, because that’s what’s really important.

You use the word “dole” in a pejorative way. There is a hangover from the idle ruling classes telling the “born and bred” “salt of the earth” working classes to get earn their keep and be proud there!
I am talking about sharing what may be produced for very little cost by machines. Not a measly subsistence level dole, but a decent income given as a right, not as a charity. Something all are entitled to, not a big wedge for a few “high born” and a pittance for the rest.

I intentionally use the word “dole” in a pejorative way, in the same way as it is pejorative in “coal not dole”. It’s not about telling people, usually cynically, to “earn their keep”, especially in undignified work that workers don’t want to spend a single minute more doing.

It’s about the importance of people having an outlet for their productive capacities, and it being recognised (at least by the person themselves, even if it is otherwise unacknowledged) as socially useful. With a dole you spend a moment collecting it and you’ve done nothing useful all day, nothing that anyone else would appreciate. No matter how high the dole is put, and no matter how many other needs it satisfies, it won’t satisfy that need: the need to be doing something useful for other people, together with other people.

Rjan:
And that’s what the capitalists intend to destroy with automation. They don’t intend to eliminate work! Hahaha, no! They only intend to eliminate any work that gives a man clout, and replace it with work which gives him no say - no say over his terms, no say over how the work is done, no say over his wage, no say over whether he is even the man to do the work that day instead of another.

I am not sure that the present system does much long term planning, and may not be said to have long term plans or intentions.
As a reactive competitive capitalist system, it will follow short term* expediencies in order to survive. Those (especially smaller companies with little resources) will go for quick cheap solutions.
Governments look too often to the next election and not further forward.
Should long term planning be left to business or politicians? And what alternatives are there?
No answer from me.
*Yes, what are short and long terms? In energy terms bigger companies are now investing in longer looking plans than previously.

Oh come on, do you really think nobody plans under capitalism? Do you think nobody in the ruling class plans, when they see the need to do so? Indeed, do you think they don’t plot crises, don’t plot passively to let unpleasant things happen, in which they think the ensuing disruption will be to their advantage?

Juddian:
Wish i could express my thoughts and commit them to paper as well as you, you have a gift.

Thanks. I’m glad to hear some of what I say rings true with others.

Even the Guardian, where no one can drive and anyone who can is evil, has now conceded that autonomous driving is a pipedream.

uk.news.yahoo.com/finance/news/ … 47621.html

Note, you don’t have to visit the Guardian to read the article if you follow the above link, so it won’t show in your browser history!

On a related note, has anybody noticed the autonomous robots delivering food? I first saw them in Milton Keynes a couple years ago, and now I’m seeing them up and down the pavements of Northampton.

It doesn’t take a huge stretch of the imagination to imagine that technology extending to HGVs eventually, in some capacity.

I see those robots every day. I believe they are based at the Co-op in Wootton, on the outskirts of Northampton so you’ll only see them in that area.

Seeing them in operation though shows what is bound to be a major issue if autonomous road vehicles are to be a reality, and that’s their inability to anticipate what other road users are about to do.

They will sit for ages waiting to cross the road at a roundabout or junction as they cannot “read” what approaching traffic is doing. They also struggle with stationary vehicles as they have no way of knowing if it has stopped temporarily or is indeed parked up.

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Roymondo:
I see those robots every day. I believe they are based at the Co-op in Wootton, on the outskirts of Northampton so you’ll only see them in that area.

Seeing them in operation though shows what is bound to be a major issue if autonomous road vehicles are to be a reality, and that’s their inability to anticipate what other road users are about to do.

They will sit for ages waiting to cross the road at a roundabout or junction as they cannot “read” what approaching traffic is doing. They also struggle with stationary vehicles as they have no way of knowing if it has stopped temporarily or is indeed parked up.

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What surprises me is that they are not interfered with. Kids (or grown ups…) standing in front of them or placing obstacles around them. (That take away delivery wont be very hot if it’s taken an hour to get to you). The contents being stolen.
You make a very good observation, until autonomous vehicles can communicate with every other vehicle on the road, they wont be able to anticipate the difference between a parked or waiting to move vehicle.
It’s the cross road paradox. If four identical autonomous vehicles arrive at a cross roads, who goes first? They’ll just sit there waiting for the vehicle to their right to move first, as it has right of way…

Roymondo:
I see those robots every day. I believe they are based at the Co-op in Wootton, on the outskirts of Northampton so you’ll only see them in that area.

Seeing them in operation though shows what is bound to be a major issue if autonomous road vehicles are to be a reality, and that’s their inability to anticipate what other road users are about to do.

They will sit for ages waiting to cross the road at a roundabout or junction as they cannot “read” what approaching traffic is doing. They also struggle with stationary vehicles as they have no way of knowing if it has stopped temporarily or is indeed parked up.

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True. I pass through their area on the way to work each evening, and a couple weeks back one was sat waiting to cross the road on the edge of a roundabout exit. I was indicating approaching the roundabout, and I could see it on the other side, yet it still began to cross as I was coming round, and it quickly shot back. Good job really, otherwise Phyllis wouldn’t have got her microwave meal for one and Skol Super this Christmas. An actual pedestrian would have (or should have) seen me indicating from the other side and understood what it meant. The robot obviously didn’t have that capability.

It’s probably within the possibility of machine learning to learn these nuances in time though, even if that takes decades. I think I read upthread that some lorries are now distinguishing between painted-out lines and actual lines which they couldn’t previously. Drivers aged 40+ are probably ok til retirement, unless they work for the co-op home delivery department :slight_smile:

No Skol Super - I am led to believe they can’t send any age-restricted goods on these robots as the age of the recipient cannot be confirmed.

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Roymondo:
No Skol Super - I am led to believe they can’t send any age-restricted goods on these robots as the age of the recipient cannot be confirmed.

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Strangely (it seems to me) alcohol can be sent through the post. No guarantee of who will actually receive the parcel there.

postoffice.co.uk/mail/what- … d#:alcohol

Do supermarket delivery drivers ask for age ID when delivering booze to households?

Maybe they are worried that a robot would get hijacked if carrying bottles of whisky? :smiley:

Franglais:

Roymondo:
No Skol Super - I am led to believe they can’t send any age-restricted goods on these robots as the age of the recipient cannot be confirmed.

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Strangely (it seems to me) alcohol can be sent through the post. No guarantee of who will actually receive the parcel there.

postoffice.co.uk/mail/what- … ume%20(ABV.&text=UK%20%2D%20Allowed%20in%20the%20mail%2C%20with,restrictions%20and%20packaging%20guidelines%20below%3A&text=sending%20glass%20bottles.-,The%20sender’s%20name%20and%20return%20address%20must%20be%20clearly%20visible,a%20Post%20Office%C2%AE%20counter.

Do supermarket delivery drivers ask for age ID when delivering booze to households?

Maybe they are worried that a robot would get hijacked if carrying bottles of whisky? :smiley:

They are supposed to - although as with in-store purchases there is an option to bypass this process if the customer clearly appears to be aged over 25. Sainsburys apparently extend this policy to cover all online shopping deliveries (not just those including age-related goods).

The correct term is ( platooning ) " driverless vehicles " which has been around as far as testing goes since the 60’s TRRL Crowthorne had a coach that could go around its test track without a driver and they have tested back then with passengers , staff actually and then through the subsequent years its been tested on and off . Later on via the Big names as mentioned i myself later on visited Volvo in Torslander back in the early 90’s and they was playing around then with their labbs moving road simulator .
The trouble we have in Blighty is our Road network , The other point and which is rather the biggest hurdle is the ( HUMAN BRAIN ) Yes technollogy is miles in front with what is beeing used now , But there is nothing around that will or could contemplate what a HUMAN will do , as drivers you’ve all seen it on the roads , dash cam footage some is hilariously funny sadly there is the fatel footage as well . If they want to take fraight of the roads and " Plattoon" we have the system sort of in place at the moment its called ( TRAINS ) trouble is there again after some Amtrack Boss found out at his cost many years ago a vast amount of track layout is missing we cant simply or directly without delays make conections , i think the area around the Fort Dunlop area was a problem .