Self driving trucks by 2021? A pipedream or reality?

UK PROFESSIONAL DRIVERS FORUMS THE UK PROFESSIONAL DRIVERS FORUM (INTERACTIVE)
21

ScaniaUltimate:

SirNickleBarsteward:

ScaniaUltimate:
Do we even have driver-less trains yet?
It is not the ability of the technology that matters, but the real world application - and that often fails to deliver (unlike us).

Yes I’m sure we do… The Docklands Lite Railway in London has 'em. I remember passengers early on would refuse to get on them due to perceived safety issues. I haven’t lived there for many decades, so I’m not sure if they’ve had any incidents or if they decided to put human drivers back in 'em or not.

Harry Monk:

ScaniaUltimate:
Do we even have driver-less trains yet?
It is not the ability of the technology that matters, but the real world application - and that often fails to deliver (unlike us).

Four lines on the London Underground system have automatically driven trains, the driver is there simply to close the doors and take control in the event of an emergency.

That gives us an idea of more realistic timelines.
Driver-less train technology is decades old & only being used in a minimal section of the railway system.
There still seems to be a need or preference to keep a human around ‘just in case’.
Railways (& trains) have a very small fraction of the variability that roads (& haulage) have.

I`m not arguing good or bad here, but trains could be more automated in the UK. Partly union opposition in order to retain jobs.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a … in_systems
London Docklands is GoA3 needing human presence, whereas Barcelona, Sydney, and Copenhagen are on GoA4 needing no on board human safety oversight. Kobe in Japan had the first GoA4 line in 1981.

22

Saying trains could be more driverless then they are , is because we are jealous that they have better pay and conditions then us , as they have a strong union. I don’t blame them trying to hang on to a good earner.

23

AndieHyde:
Maybe he was and advanced Dr. in machine learning psychology?

I’ll start to worry on the day that he’s complicit in Skynet going live! :smiley:

24

Odd days:
Saying trains could be more driverless then they are , is because we are jealous that they have better pay and conditions then us , as they have a strong union. I don’t blame them trying to hang on to a good earner.

I don’t blame them either but quite simply a computer controlled railway is far more efficient than a human controlled railway. A human driver can see nothing other than the next signal, a computer-controlled train can see what traffic is doing several miles ahead. As a result more trains can operate on computer-controlled networks in the same space.

25

There are two main reasons that self driving currently doesn’t work and will take a decade or more, according to lead names in the sector.

First is the fact there are still going to be human drivers. If you got rid of all human drivers then self driving vehicles could arrive much quicker because they’d only have to concentrate on moving a vehicle from A to B down a bit of tarmac and all the vehicles could talk to each other. At the moment they have to not only figure out how to do that but also account for human behaviour. For example the law says you don’t drive on the hard shoulder on a motorway but at certain very busy exit sliproads it has become commonly accepted behaviour to use the hard shoulder as an unofficial slip road lane during peak time…M4 eastbound onto M32 at Bristol instantly comes to mind along with the M40 one for Leamington Spa.

Secondly there’s the infrastructure. All the current shortfalls of LIDAR, lane detection etc are very easily overcome with alterations to the road and can be done by several already existing methods from RFID tags buried every so often to roadside beacons etc. But this needs legislation to harmonise a single worldwide way of doing it to stop it turning into a multiple standard mess and it needs political will to cause traffic chaos whilst you install it all.

My car has electric power steering, it has electronic accelerator, F1 cars and now some production cars have fly by wire braking. Everything for stopping, starting and steering the vehicle by computer already exists.

26

Anyone over the age of 40 that is looking to keep driving until they retire will be fine, if I was 21 now I don’t think it would be a long career.
Also the nearer we get to fully automated trucks the worst the pay and conditions will be.

If I was 21 now I would be doing IT or computer maintenance as that’s where the next secure generation of jobs will be.

27

For me the biggest hurdle to overcome is the ethical one. Imagine the scene driving up the road and you cannot avoid an accident the choice you have is a young woman pushing a pushchair with baby in or an elderly person clearly near the end of their lives. One has to be knocked down which one? How do you program AI for this situation? Ethics will keep drivers in vehicles for a long long time. Remember the warnings are out there for all to see - Terminator / Matrix all deal with AI

28

Felixstoweflyer:
For me the biggest hurdle to overcome is the ethical one. Imagine the scene driving up the road and you cannot avoid an accident the choice you have is a young woman pushing a pushchair with baby in or an elderly person clearly near the end of their lives. One has to be knocked down which one? How do you program AI for this situation? Ethics will keep drivers in vehicles for a long long time. Remember the warnings are out there for all to see - Terminator / Matrix all deal with AI

Sorted!
youtube.com/watch?v=ejcih7N_gnY

Edit to add:
Asimov and other SciFi writers have been dealing with the ethics of AI for decades. His 3 Laws Of Robotics were introduced in 1942, and are explored in some of his, and others` writings.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Laws_of_Robotics

Edit to add 2:
nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07135-0
youtube.com/watch?v=ixIoDYVfKA0
And: Would you push the fat man off the bridge?

29

Harry Monk:

Odd days:
Saying trains could be more driverless then they are , is because we are jealous that they have better pay and conditions then us , as they have a strong union. I don’t blame them trying to hang on to a good earner.

I don’t blame them either but quite simply a computer controlled railway is far more efficient than a human controlled railway. A human driver can see nothing other than the next signal, a computer-controlled train can see what traffic is doing several miles ahead. As a result more trains can operate on computer-controlled networks in the same space.

I think that’s a bit short-sighted. They can’t keep the trains on time with the current slack. Can you imagine what will happen when it is more “efficient”?

Also, practically speaking the driver is not on the train to drive it. Under all normal circumstances it has been possible to have a train drive itself for decades. Planes have flown themselves for the bulk of the flight for decades.

The driver is really there to monitor the machinery and infrastructure using all his human senses, and to make decisions about how to operate the train under exceptional circumstances.

What they find however is that the best people to make good, quick decisions in exceptional circumstances, are those who are (as a necessary but not sufficient condition) accustomed how to drive a train under normal circumstances. They also find that humans need a minimum amount of work to do to maintain their attention and their readiness to intervene.

Practically speaking then, it’s pointless to automate the routine driving task unless you’ve made the decision to automate the lot, and are sure that the stakes are low in the event of malfunction.

It’s true to say that rail unions avoid reforms of their work which erode their bargaining power or allow bosses to gamble with safety or resilience in the name of efficiency savings, but it is false to say that they are the only reason trains are not automated.

The fundamental reason remains that they still need humans (who possess the same skills, experience, and responsibility of a driver) onboard to oversee the system and to control its operation in exceptional circumstances, and the rest (like the fact of the driver driving the train manually under routine circumstances) simply follows from that.

A driver whose job is 50% automated still costs 100% of the wage because he still has to be present for 100% of the time and have all the same capabilities, but he also performs less well overall, so it’s not only a pointless activity from the perspective of the bean counters but a harmful one from the point of view of safety and resilience.

30

Self driving taxis on public roads in USA.
They can be remotely assisted in case of a road closure, but no on board human driver.
bbc.co.uk/news/amp/technology-54476524
Already been used by a small number of people in a designated area, looks set for expansion.

31

Franglais:
I`m not arguing good or bad here, but trains could be more automated in the UK. Partly union opposition in order to retain jobs.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a … in_systems
London Docklands is GoA3 needing human presence, whereas Barcelona, Sydney, and Copenhagen are on GoA4 needing no on board human safety oversight. Kobe in Japan had the first GoA4 line in 1981.

What a wonderful idea what with the prospect of millions becoming unemployed, why not seek to reduce opportunities for employment? We need to be doing the exact opposite and devise means to create employment, so that rather than being a drain on the taxpayer workers are employed and paying taxes. All that driverless Trains and Lorries will achieve is more unemployment and increased profits for the corporate sector. You know, the corporate sector which is so expert at avoiding paying taxes.

32

cav551:

Franglais:
I`m not arguing good or bad here, but trains could be more automated in the UK. Partly union opposition in order to retain jobs.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a … in_systems
London Docklands is GoA3 needing human presence, whereas Barcelona, Sydney, and Copenhagen are on GoA4 needing no on board human safety oversight. Kobe in Japan had the first GoA4 line in 1981.

What a wonderful idea what with the prospect of millions becoming unemployed, why not seek to reduce opportunities for employment? We need to be doing the exact opposite and devise means to create employment, so that rather than being a drain on the taxpayer workers are employed and paying taxes. All that driverless Trains and Lorries will achieve is more unemployment and increased profits for the corporate sector. You know, the corporate sector which is so expert at avoiding paying taxes.

33

Thankyou Franglais for the links. Asimov’s rules do not answer the predicament as I stated one person must be run over. The 3rd link Nature’s article makes for interesting reading with the global / religious attitudes differing, not really a strong arguement against to say “it doesn’t happen” because there is always the chance it will happen. I am sure most bridge strikers think it will never happen! At least I hope they think this LOL

34

Felixstoweflyer:
Thankyou Franglais for the links. Asimov’s rules do not answer the predicament as I stated one person must be run over. The 3rd link Nature’s article makes for interesting reading with the global / religious attitudes differing, not really a strong arguement against to say “it doesn’t happen” because there is always the chance it will happen. I am sure most bridge strikers think it will never happen! At least I hope they think this LOL

Asimovs rules dont answer all the questions of course, but being written decades ago it is a good basis for a debate.
.
Would you push the fat man off the bridge?

35

cav551:

Franglais:
I`m not arguing good or bad here, but trains could be more automated in the UK. Partly union opposition in order to retain jobs.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a … in_systems
London Docklands is GoA3 needing human presence, whereas Barcelona, Sydney, and Copenhagen are on GoA4 needing no on board human safety oversight. Kobe in Japan had the first GoA4 line in 1981.

What a wonderful idea what with the prospect of millions becoming unemployed, why not seek to reduce opportunities for employment? We need to be doing the exact opposite and devise means to create employment, so that rather than being a drain on the taxpayer workers are employed and paying taxes. All that driverless Trains and Lorries will achieve is more unemployment and increased profits for the corporate sector. You know, the corporate sector which is so expert at avoiding paying taxes.

That’s the idea of the great reset, millions of the present independent employed (not relying on the state) to become unemployed, millions in govt/local authority non jobs doing the square root of bugger all productive but reading daily from the correct hymnsheet to keep that all important state role, millions further reliant on subsidies to their soon to be meagre salaries in order to survive in the planned utopia.

All relying on the state, all chipped vaccinated monitored and fully compliant, it’s started, masks are the first removal of your individual identity, free speech silenced and increasingly free thought going the same way, fail to comply and see what happens to you, cancellation.

What baffles me is how enthusiastic so many working class people are to see those remaining good jobs (generally unionised) automated away asap so we can all be brought down to the apparent ideal :unamused: of basic income or whatever the ■■■■■■■■■ of the day is for these people.

36

Odd days:
Saying trains could be more driverless then they are , is because we are jealous that they have better pay and conditions then us , as they have a strong union. I don’t blame them trying to hang on to a good earner.

And we stick to together !!!

#Aslef

37

ScaniaUltimate:

SirNickleBarsteward:

ScaniaUltimate:
Do we even have driver-less trains yet?
It is not the ability of the technology that matters, but the real world application - and that often fails to deliver (unlike us).

Yes I’m sure we do… The Docklands Lite Railway in London has 'em. I remember passengers early on would refuse to get on them due to perceived safety issues. I haven’t lived there for many decades, so I’m not sure if they’ve had any incidents or if they decided to put human drivers back in 'em or not.

Harry Monk:

ScaniaUltimate:
Do we even have driver-less trains yet?
It is not the ability of the technology that matters, but the real world application - and that often fails to deliver (unlike us).

Four lines on the London Underground system have automatically driven trains, the driver is there simply to close the doors and take control in the event of an emergency.

That gives us an idea of more realistic timelines.
Driver-less train technology is decades old & only being used in a minimal section of the railway system.
There still seems to be a need or preference to keep a human around ‘just in case’.
Railways (& trains) have a very small fraction of the variability that roads (& haulage) have.

London underground system and DLR is not part of Network rail infrastructure.

38

Tittle unrealistic obv being as it’s 2021 in a couple of months but it does make me laugh how many claim it’ll never happen because the truck they drive doesn’t do lane assist properly or has failings in emergency breaking, like we are at an end point and development suddenly stops. Everything is being honed and refined constantly, development constant. I think the comment that pointed out that those of us mid 40’s and above won’t have anything to worry about but they wouldn’t want to be a young driver starting out at 21 now probably sums up how I think it’ll progress. Unlike many on here it seems I’m a massive fan of technology and for me the best truck I’ve yet driven was a Volvo FH 540 demo, a HQ demo so every bell and whistle fitted and driving it to Italy was just a joy making full use of the adaptive cruise control, coming down mountains at set speeds not touching a pedal, enjoying the dual clutch etc*. Technology is ever advancing, get used to it and enjoy it because you sure as hell won’t stop it

*Insert obligatory comment about the truck being a better driver than me etc etc

39

What a shower of ■■■■…
What soft nob heads going take responsibility for sending a class 1 down the M6
Enjoy jail pal

40

ScaniaUltimate:
There still seems to be a need or preference to keep a human around ‘just in case’.

Yes, because then you have someone to blame ‘just in case’. If (when) an accident happens with a self-operating vehicle, who’s responsible? The software manufacturer? The signal operator? The vehicle owner/operator? The vehicle manufacturer? The vehicle maintenance technicians or the software maintenance company? Another driver/cyclist/pedestrian who crossed the path of the vehicle?