Quietest Christmas ever?

[merc0447]

ajt:
I seem to remember the car industry was on its knee’s only a couple of years back till the government stepped in with the short term 2k scrappage scheme incentive.

Maybe its time to lower VAT on instore purchases to get people spending more in shops to save jobs, maybe keep the standard 20% on online sales and 15% on high street sales.

Just had a look at various countries VAT rates, 20% seems to be the norm in europe. Australia is only 10%, im telling you i want to immigrate there #perfectcountry

[m4rky]

dominicpriestley:
All that is happening is a shift in buying habits and culture. Players such as HMV who didn’t see that MP3’s and digital music libraries were the future, have only themselves to blame. You have to be forward thinking and fast moving in today’s buisness world.

All this “this country is ruined” etc is complete rubbish. We have lots of issues that need to be sorted, but we have industries such as car manufacturing that are powering ahead. That industry is fast moving and willing to adapt and change to meet the needs/wants of the world markets. Toyota/Honda/Nissan don’t invest big sums in UK plants unless those plants are willing to adapt/change/ do what they have to do to make it work.

We’re going through a transitional period in the UK and other places. It’s happend before, and will happen again and again. It’s not a nice truth, but there will always be winners and losers.

The UK is not a car manufacturer - We are car assemblers - A work force and nothing else

We may put these cars together and get paid for doing the job - But the vast profits go to Asia where the parent companies are based

[kerbut]

But it was the Government (cant remember if it was this one or the previous one ) wanted every home to have a home computer which every member of this forum must have,so we all have access to and use online shopping , now the present Government are wondering why High Street retailers are going out of business , its the internet causing it ,ie no business rates that a retailer with 100 shops would have to pay , so cheaper prices to you and I because of lower overheads.

[winseer]

switchlogic:

Winseer:
Clintons and Thomas Cook are already in administration, so you can’t have them as a “I predict this firm to go bust” punt.
Some ■■■■ will say COMETS next otherwise!

Firms with £100m that are losing £1m a day will survive the next 3 months.
Firms with £100k that are losing £1000 a day won’t, because it’s a lot easier to push up a £1000perday overhead even higher than a £1m per day overhead, which it’s actually easier to cut fat off…

Big and inefficient will survive. Small and merely “not quite good enough” will not.

All those firms that thought they could save the business by cutting the payroll will now find it was all for nothing. The next 3 months are critical to the rest of the decade ahead I reckon.

Having read your posts on this topic so far its fairly clear your not quite the business expert you think you are. Thomas Cook haven’t been in administration yet and Clintons Cards were bought out of it by an American investor in the summer. But hey ho Im sure we can look forward to the collapse of John Lewis when a member of staff turns out to be a terrorist or TK Maxx when their huge chemical plant explodes a la Bhopal…oh wait…maybe Tesco will go under when it comes to light they are run by a load of lizard members of the illuminati responsible for all the gun crime in the US.

I didn’t profess to be a business expert. I’m a conspiracy theorist. Being the latter over the former means I’m entitled to say what I feel, and not being the former means I don’t have to be rich/a crook/connected to big business to get by. I refuse to assist those who demand crooked methods, and whilst that will likely hold me back from ever becoming rich, I should be afforded some protection at least from being made poorer - unless someone crosses the line to knock my legs out from under me of course. Like millions of others, I’m vulnerable to high interest rates during this period of no good-wage job availability. If the job doesn’t come before the hike, I’m powerless to prevent myself being shafted. BUT I’ve made my stand that Interest rates should be static for another 5 years, whilst jobs should pick up strongly in about 4. If I’m wrong, I’ll pay dearly for it, but already I’m spared the death of a thousand cuts that most other people will have to endure, and are already enduring in the meantime. I’ve already put my money where my mouth is, and there’s nothing like it that gives the ultimate right to express a business opinion.

Interestingly, when I get some details wrong about something (because of my cursory reading of news stories rather than any in-depth research done), then there’s always someone like yourself who’s on me straight away, compared to the other ■■■■■■■■ posted here that gets laughed off and ignored, perhaps because anything from a secondary modern background is considered “harmless banter” and no threat to the system?
Is more expected of me, so being a proverbial V12 firing on 11 is to be slammed a lot more than a chicken shed firing on 1?

How much money did investors lose having bought Thomas Cook or Clintons in say, 2005 pre credit crunch?
Who cares if it’s “bankruptcy” or “adminstration” or “perfectly healthy company not in either” if shareholders and customers got shafted?
I made enquiries at Thomas Cook for a holiday about 18 months ago, and was told in no uncertain terms that they are “downsizing availability in anticipation of lower demand” which also means blatently trying to keep prices high. The firm is a shadow of it’s former self, but it’s already done the administrative deals that’ll let it survive. Therefore I don’t consider it worth backing in the “dead pool” which was my original argument I believe.

Wasn’t Comets already ‘in administration’ before it officially went ■■■■-up a few weeks back?

I have never worked for TkMax, nor John Lewis, nor ESL. Of course ESL is the financially weaker of the three by an order of many magnitudes, but any argument saying that “you can be too big to fail” I thought was put to bed in the post-credit-crunch world we now life in. Enron wasn’t a bank, Merril Lynch didn’t go bust, and AIG being rescued was a travesty which if I went into details would make me sound like Trump talking about the Republicans losing the election. The public lost at the time, continues to lose, and will always lose because crooked dealings designed to protect the wealth of those at the top have well and truly shafted the ordinary public investors, customers, suppliers, and even counterparties to get around their own failings.

Welcome to ‘Raubstadt II’ - ‘RaubWelt’!

[harry_monk]

Winseer:
Like millions of others, I’m vulnerable to high interest rates during this period of no good-wage job availability. If the job doesn’t come before the hike, I’m powerless to prevent myself being shafted. BUT I’ve made my stand that Interest rates should be static for another 5 years, whilst jobs should pick up strongly in about 4. If I’m wrong, I’ll pay dearly for it, but already I’m spared the death of a thousand cuts that most other people will have to endure, and are already enduring in the meantime. I’ve already put my money where my mouth is, and there’s nothing like it that gives the ultimate right to express a business opinion.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will start to move interest rates upwards when U.S. unemployment falls to 6.5%. When they do the UK will have no choice but to follow suit. When America sneezes, Britain catches a cold.

Here’s the graph.

I’m thinking maybe October/November 2013.

[switchlogic]

Winseer:
I’m a conspiracy theorist.

Ok then. I shall leave you to it. But I shall leave you by saying I don’t believe anyone is too big to fail, merely that you picking Waitrose and TK Maxx as companies on the edge was a bit wide of the mark.

[sidevalve]

m4rky:
The UK is not a car manufacturer - We are car assemblers - A work force and nothing else

We may put these cars together and get paid for doing the job - But the vast profits go to Asia where the parent companies are based

That, my friend, is because a combination of stubborn unions, lack of capital investment and inept management killed off the British-owned manufacturers.

In any case, it was ever thus before the Japanese even exported cars over here. The two biggest names outside the companies which made up British Leyland were Vauxhall and Ford. Both are, unless I’m very much mistaken, American-owned.

[ironstipper]

Ah ha. The “Who goes bust” prediction thread.

Well last year, I predicted that “Wincuntonski” would be gone, and “Stobarts” Will survive. (I hope everyone will wedge up…)

although I did also predict Stobart would be a better SP, i failed on that.

This years predictions, are… Argos and Halfords to jack in by the end of the 1st qtr. TKmax and primark are a good bet for a short term punt for an easy 20% at today’s prices when Argos vanish.

i also reckon stobarts are a good long term number for a low SP if your prepared to hold till 2015.

Happy crimbo folks, see you next year, (winseer can give you ■■■■ tips between times)

[winseer]

Perhaps we should actually define properly what “going bust” actually means?

(1) You are no longer operating. Your liveried wagons disappear and are no more.
This can happen even from a merger between, for example, Bloggs and Smith becomes after about a year or two “Bloggs” and the ‘Smith’ passes into history. Eg. “Morgan Stanley Dean Witter” is only referred to nowdays as “Morgan Stanley” I believe.

(2) The business survives, the name survives, but the original company is a ghost of it’s former self, not really deserving of the quality label it once had.
Eg. Cadburys, Thomas Cook.

(3) A company loses all it’s money, and doesn’t get rescued. It goes bankrupt, it’s assets are all sold off to many different entities. There is nothing left of the original business outside of nostalgic memories. Eg. DeLorean, Laker Airways

(4) A company loses all it’s money, but the management get rescued, maybe some bond holders too. The name survives, the bosses keep their money, the shareholders get shafted as if the company no longer existed. This seems to be the prefered option these days, so the number of firms going this way must be legion, and we’ve probably all got some examples of them.

My four picks for massive knock-on job losses/customer & supplier defaults this year:
TkMaxx Store Closures, Redundancies in “financial restructuring”. American parent just doesn’t want a UK liability on it’s books…
Waitrose John Lewis will cut it loose I predict - too many middle class folk tightening their belts at this most snobby of supermarkets.
Ebay Brought down by a ‘money laundering for terroists’ scandal… Being American, they’ll try and suggest it’s not their fault, and palm the damage off on the UK, France, or Iran because of the company’s strong connection with these countries as well as the US. This of course means massive knock-on job losses and financial loss in the UK.
Sheilas Wheels - Perhaps the first uk insurance “victim” of changes in legislation that effectively destroys their edge…

Disclaimer: I am a conspiracy theorist. I am entitled to be wrong, because I am not paid for being right. As such, any theory stated cannot be considered defamatory because I state it outside of a professional’s remit.

[winseer]

Don’t forget folks that predicting something with a 99%+ chance of happening brings you no respect, even if you’re right.
Predict a <1% ‘black swan’ though… Predicting the UNpredictable is what brings the wealth protection (because you saw it coming and others didn’t) and actual wealth gain (if you had chance to short the stock, change jobs etc).

None of us are going to make money out of HMV falling over, so I see no point in “predicting it” as others have.
Multinational firms wortth billions? Too big to fail? - These firms make up the conpiracy theorist’s dream team because of the HUGE effect should such unlikely predictions be proven correct…

[switchlogic]

Winseer:
None of us are going to make money out of HMV falling over, so I see no point in “predicting it” as others have.

Hate to break this to you bu no one is gonna make money from predicting something on Trucknet anyway. I fear your missing the point. It was merely a question posed on a forum.

Oh and also Waitrose is actually doing surprisingly well at the moment. It’s well known that the ones to suffer most in a downturn are usually those in the middle such as Tesco. They are the shoppers most likely to move down, if indeed shopping in Aldi or Lidl is a move down. Waitrose are doing well because as I’m sure you’re aware being a conspiracy theorist those further up the ladder still have a lot of money. You just have to look where Waitrose stores are located, they are located to attract at least upper middle class in most cases and those higher up.

[santa]

If you have plenty of cash, and many people still do, you will not earn much by investing it or putting it in the bank. That is why wealthy people are buying up land, houses and luxury consumer goods like Ferraris. Those people do their weekly shop (or send the Filipino maid) in Waitrose.

There is a continuing need for haulage. Even if the goods are manufactured in China or India, they have to be transported by road to the retailer and then to the consumer.

[wiretwister]

The point about Switch makes about Waitrose is one that I lean towards. My 2 nearest Waitrose stores are in Marlborough and Cirencester. Both these towns have people of “relative” poverty, by that below average incomes, yet the majority are above this level and in the surrounding areas are some seriously wealthy residents.

As for businesses failing Have a look at those who are giving the biggest discounts on sale goods. A few head line grabbers may bring in customers but can also indicate cash flow problems. Likewise those companies who have 90 invoice payment terms, could be just squeezing their supliers or could have cash flow problems.

Since having a stab at predicting company failures in the coming year I will go for Argos because of the discounting in their sale. At least 1 big internet trader, my guess Ocado, haven’t seen as many of their vans about of late. I also think that a scandal will take another down, my guess would be financial services/insurance company hit by an event whose liabilities which can not be covered by the assets available needing government bail-out assistance before being broken up an terminated due to the caustic residue of the brand.

IMHO we are in for a decade of stagnation and falling living standards for most in the first world while the emerging nations in the Southern hemisphere grow to push the US and Western Europe down the economic league table.

[rob_k]

switchlogic:

Winseer:
None of us are going to make money out of HMV falling over, so I see no point in “predicting it” as others have.

Hate to break this to you bu no one is gonna make money from predicting something on Trucknet anyway. I fear your missing the point. It was merely a question posed on a forum.

Oh and also Waitrose is actually doing surprisingly well at the moment. It’s well known that the ones to suffer most in a downturn are usually those in the middle such as Tesco. They are the shoppers most likely to move down, if indeed shopping in Aldi or Lidl is a move down. Waitrose are doing well because as I’m sure you’re aware being a conspiracy theorist those further up the ladder still have a lot of money. You just have to look where Waitrose stores are located, they are located to attract at least upper middle class in most cases and those higher up.

You’re off your ■■■■■■■ rocker.

[chicane]

Interesting point about Shiela’s Wheels, Diamond, &etc., but aren’t they part of parent companies who will pick up the new higher premiums ?

Valid point about Southern hemisphere countries overtaking the ‘West’. China is buying huge tracts in Africa and investing heavily on that continent.

I also predict food prices to increase exponentially, this year hasn’t just devastated the global combineables and vegetable harvest, the appalling conditions have also meant that farmers have been unable to plant much of the crops for next year.

Here in the UK it scanning results so far, indicate that ewes are carrying 30-60% fewer lambs (due to a triple hit of poor condition and increased incidence of liver fluke caused by the wet weather, and the spread of Schmallenberg virus pretty much throughout the British mainland).

Milk & Beef production is also being hit by the Schmallenburg virus, and a reduction feeding as livestock farmers were unable to make enough fodder due to the weather, many animals are being sold early to try and eke out fodder supplies (this glut of animals coming onto the market is further depressing the price), the cost of concentrates have risen by £20-30 pcm (due to the increased price of grain, due to the shortage brought about by the weather) so increasing this part of the ration is not a viable option. I would expect the situation to be pretty much the same in Northern Europe.

Combine the rising price of food with increasing unemployment and reducing/static wages and the end of 2013 could be ‘interesting’.

[switchlogic]

Rob K:

switchlogic:

Winseer:
None of us are going to make money out of HMV falling over, so I see no point in “predicting it” as others have.

Hate to break this to you bu no one is gonna make money from predicting something on Trucknet anyway. I fear your missing the point. It was merely a question posed on a forum.

Oh and also Waitrose is actually doing surprisingly well at the moment. It’s well known that the ones to suffer most in a downturn are usually those in the middle such as Tesco. They are the shoppers most likely to move down, if indeed shopping in Aldi or Lidl is a move down. Waitrose are doing well because as I’m sure you’re aware being a conspiracy theorist those further up the ladder still have a lot of money. You just have to look where Waitrose stores are located, they are located to attract at least upper middle class in most cases and those higher up.

You’re off your [zb] rocker.

Typical intelligent constructive post from Rob K there, well done.

[rob_k]

switchlogic:

Rob K:

switchlogic:

Winseer:
None of us are going to make money out of HMV falling over, so I see no point in “predicting it” as others have.

Hate to break this to you bu no one is gonna make money from predicting something on Trucknet anyway. I fear your missing the point. It was merely a question posed on a forum.

Oh and also Waitrose is actually doing surprisingly well at the moment. It’s well known that the ones to suffer most in a downturn are usually those in the middle such as Tesco. They are the shoppers most likely to move down, if indeed shopping in Aldi or Lidl is a move down. Waitrose are doing well because as I’m sure you’re aware being a conspiracy theorist those further up the ladder still have a lot of money. You just have to look where Waitrose stores are located, they are located to attract at least upper middle class in most cases and those higher up.

You’re off your [zb] rocker.

Typical intelligent constructive post from Rob K there, well done.

It would have been if I’d quoted the right person. I quoted you by mistake when I meant to quote winseer’s 1123am post instead, as he is indeed quite clearly off his trolley with those comments. One can only guess he’s on a wind up.

[switchlogic]

Ah ok I take it back! He does seem to be a bit of a nut job that’s for sure.

[saaamon]

Santa:
If you have plenty of cash, and many people still do, you will not earn much by investing it or putting it in the bank. That is why wealthy people are buying up land, houses and luxury consumer goods like Ferraris. Those people do their weekly shop (or send the Filipino maid) in Waitrose.

There is a continuing need for haulage. Even if the goods are manufactured in China or India, they have to be transported by road to the retailer and then to the consumer.

Buying land, houses and supercars is not what “wealthy” people are investing their money in…

[ajt]

ironstipper:
Ah ha. The “Who goes bust” prediction thread.

Well last year, I predicted that “Wincuntonski” would be gone, and “Stobarts” Will survive. (I hope everyone will wedge up…)

although I did also predict Stobart would be a better SP, i failed on that.

This years predictions, are… Argos and Halfords to jack in by the end of the 1st qtr. TKmax and primark are a good bet for a short term punt for an easy 20% at today’s prices when Argos vanish.

i also reckon stobarts are a good long term number for a low SP if your prepared to hold till 2015.

Happy crimbo folks, see you next year, (winseer can give you [zb] tips between times)

Sure i read Argos were going to be closing down a number of stores and concentrating on the online side of things as its doing well.

Primark should be fine judging by the amount of time i spend waiting in queue’s with the Mrs