Lockdown 3

Few days ago had a day deliving driving around the peak District and pennies . Every car park lay by was full of parked cars. With bike racks on them.

Was an helicopter hovering around for a while. Possibly filming all the people out walking the countryside.
But yeah every space was full of cars

Juddian:

Franglais:

ROG:
because so many are classing themselves as key/essential workers

And that is a difficult call to balance the economy now and in the future, against immediate health concerns.
I daresay you and I might disagree with the “political*” choices being made, but…

(Posted along with previous two)

The Croydon money trees just might be on their last legs you mean? there’s hope for you yet :smiling_imp: :laughing:

Seriously though, yes, we cannot keep the country afloat on endless borrowing from the govts bestest mates nor from creating ever more fake credit plucked from the chancellors puckered ring piece.
Those calling for more paid time off doing bugger all won’t be quite so keen when the bill for this farce arrives in the form of massive tax rises, especially when in 12 months time they’re still social distancing and doing the dance of the seven facemasks at the monthly allowed visit to the last remaining pub in the town.

Here was us in April 2020
Return of Normality thread

Juddian wrote:
Franglais wrote:
Juddian wrote:
Normality won’t resume, the way of life we have known up till now will never be the same again when this is over.

Quite apart from the economy decimated, do you think the state hasn’t noted how easy it has been to quell almost all people into a state of citizen approved house arrest by promoting hysterical fear 24/7 va the idiot programming media box in the corner.
Never before has an innocent British public been under mass house arrest, including parliament itself for crying out loud who surrendered their freedom without a wimper, this is the work of a totalitarian state, where this could go from here is anyone’s guess.
“Hysterical fear”?
There is some in certain sections, true. But being afraid of a danger is perfectly rational. Pretending COVID 19 is merely a cold is as bad as saying it’s the Black Death.
Trying to control it will cost our economy, tis also true. Letting this virus free to kill many is not an option without economic cost either. Widespread illness and social disruption through excess deaths cost money too.
I’m ok with my pension being a bit smaller if fewer people die prematurely.

Very nice for you and me that is, if our pensions are a bit smaller, presumably you like me are in a job that’s literally bomb proof and personally unaffected by any of this.

However there’s others sitting not so pretty and the lives of millions will never be the same again, from businesses built up over lifetimes lost never to re-open, to those who have worked in such places loyally to be out of work, those who’s finances will never recover leading to relationships being destroyed and possibly more lives lost as the result of economic ruin than this particular virus could destroy.

Would you be quite so happy if there was grave possibility of your house being re-possessed, finding yourself with debts you have no hope of ever repaying, no job to go to and maybe years before you find another as good as you had, and the possibility that your relationship could disappear around the U bend.
The economy won’t restart the day its stopped as if some demi-god had stopped time for a laugh then got bored and buggered off elsewhere, we are about to enter a recession to make 2008 and the lack of austerity since look like a mere blip, with the country already £2000billion in govt debt, and incalcuble personal debts already.

Yes you and i might be sitting pretty, we ain’t the ones about to pay the true cost of this overreaction.
Seems to me the Government (although scrabbling in the dark) are doing what they can to protect the less well off. The idea of furloughs, altbough less than perfect, seems a good idea. That will cost me, although I don’t benefit from it.
Cutting costs by allowing firms to close now may benefit my future tax bills.
This virus is going to cost is all a lot. On balance I reckon we’re going the right way.
To allow more to die now, so we are better off later I reject as a policy. There is a valid argument that a poorer future society will be worse for the health of all. But here I’m with Andie: a poorer but more equitable future society needn’t be like that. If we as a country are poorer later, but our poorest aren’t left to suffer, then fine.
Trying to prevent too much financial damage? Fine.
Trying to keep the unjust present hierarchy? No.

Here is the link to the original so we can all make (some) sense of that because of the missing quotation marks !
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=164843&p=2670837&hilit=+balance#p2670837

Yup, and we’ll still be here in discussing this never ending bloody farce in April and again at Christmas and long into the rest of the decade, assuming we’re spared and the brownshirts don’t cancel either of us.
Not much will have changed economically, the national dept will be notching up towards and past £2.5trillion, that’s 2500 Billion in old money by the way folks, but it will be interesting to see what the medical political and marshall state of the country is like, especially when most alternative news sites and blogs have been deplatformed by the Ministry of Truth who will be the sole source of information.

Interestingly, my favourite troll has stopped taking the mickey out of me and my weird views recently, has he got bored, matured, or come to the realisation that fings really ain’t kosher out there :wink:

But the alternative is now. We strangle the economy by keeping it on some form of ventilator, cases remain higher so therefore government will keep the brakes on for longer so we scrape along the bottom longer term.

Wouldn’t tighter regs on the essential nature if things be of more benefit? Sharper but potentially shorter hit to the economy and a quicker way of easing pressure on the health service allowing the brakes to be taken off sooner rather than later?

I keep hearing about thousands of deaths, but there dont appear to be many funerals taking place. Can any of the usual suspects shed some light on this?

alamcculloch:
…but there dont appear to be many funerals taking place.

That’s been commented on locally. Down from our house is a crem, but there don’t appear to be masses more funerals happening there. We’re apparently in a hotspot.

toonsy:
Wouldn’t tighter regs on the essential nature if things be of more benefit?

Tried that in April and for months in Wales, but still doesn’t seem to have done anything. Rates dropped in Summer, then increased in Winter even in Wales despite this, so stopping the economy didnt work either.

alamcculloch:
I keep hearing about thousands of deaths, but there dont appear to be many funerals taking place. Can any of the usual suspects shed some light on this?

I virtually attended my uncles last week. I’ll be attending a colleagues one (again virtually) later on next week.

Through this I’ve lost two family members, one friend and one colleague.

I’m all for doing what’s needed to get us out of all this crap but do lockdowns really work?
It’s winter,the rates were always gunna be higher because viruses thrive in the cold don’t they? The flu rips though the population this time of year,you dont get mass deaths in the summer months due to viruses,are people actually taking any notice anymore?
The traffic is like any other day and has anybody really looked down into the cars as they pass to see the occupants? I’m not saying people shouldn’t be out and about but there’s plenty of cars of the elderly end(who we’re supposed to be protecting) on their jolly’s probably because there bored at home riding around,you work all week,go to the supermarket on a weekend and it’s packed,people are just going out to get out and have a wander round the shops,they’ve probably been to Tesco’s every day just for something to do…
I can’t see this ending anytime soon , I think people have just got fed up now and aren’t bothered anymore,even the higher risk people unfortunately…

Last Monday morning with the volume of traffic you’d have thought that there wasn’t a lockdown, but as the week progressed outside of rush hour things got quieter. Volumes of stock into stores I was carrying was ridiculously small, next week probably due to the seasonal change + lockdown our mob have less volume of orders to fulfill, to the point that a couple of staff drivers from Redhouse are working out our place, this is convenient for them as they live locally to the yard, but it means that the limpers inc me have had shifts cancelled to make shifts/trucks available for them. So atm I’m working Mon-weds-Fri, and day at home Tues & thurs. It’s that bad even Stan, Philipe and all the other limpers who regularly work out out of Redhouse haven’t had any work last week and a couple of them resorted to doing night shifts out of our yard to get a couple of shifts in, but even that has ended.

Yorkielad:
I’m all for doing what’s needed to get us out of all this crap but do lockdowns really work

Making a sweeping generalisation here, but:
Look at those countries that had hard lockdowns early on. They are the ones nearest to ordinary life now, and have the least damaged economies.

Franglais:

Yorkielad:
I’m all for doing what’s needed to get us out of all this crap but do lockdowns really work

Making a sweeping generalisation here, but:
Look at those countries that had hard lockdowns early on. They are the ones nearest to ordinary life now, and have the least damaged economies.

In hindsight we should have had a ■■■■■■■■ lockdown from the start, not this half cocked measure that this government seems to do.
The trouble is the British attitude of liberty and mistrust of those in charge of us.

Franglais:

Yorkielad:
I’m all for doing what’s needed to get us out of all this crap but do lockdowns really work

Making a sweeping generalisation here, but:
Look at those countries that had hard lockdowns early on. They are the ones nearest to ordinary life now, and have the least damaged economies.

Should’ve been a piece of ■■■■ for us; we’re an island ferchrissakes! Just look at The Isle of Man or New Zealand with their extremely effective entry procedures and very low covid rates.

Obviously a country with a land border will be more difficult to police. I have no idea how Spain is doing as of today, but friends of mine who live their report draconian measures from day one but claim little difference from UK rates and cases. Obviously unsubstantiated, but merely reporting what they are saying.

Don’t know the exact figures.
But Japan is an island
The Japanese are generally known for wearing masks being law obiding citizens.

But the rate is out of.control there now and there gone into a month long lockdown.

Was an article.about it on the radio as Japan is hoping to host last year’s postponed Olympics this year.

But experts are saying there’s no chance as it’s out of.control over there.

To be honest hard to say how we’re coping compared to other developed countries as we don’t hear the figures and facts.

edd1974:
Don’t know the exact figures.
But Japan is an island
The Japanese are generally known for wearing masks being law obiding citizens.

But the rate is out of.control there now and there gone into a month long lockdown.

Was an article.about it on the radio as Japan is hoping to host last year’s postponed Olympics this year.

But experts are saying there’s no chance as it’s out of.control over there.

To be honest hard to say how we’re coping compared to other developed countries as we don’t hear the figures and facts.

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus- … g=7&picker

New C19 cases per day, per million pop
UK…885
Japan…061
US…980
Eire…814
Aus…000.5
N.Z…006
China…<0.1
Known worst currently
Czechia…1,225

There are always problems with stats and in some countries with poor infrastructure and healthcare their coukld easily be under reporting as cases may exist but not be known about. That doesnt seem likely in the few cases Ive plucked out of the linked table.

Japan seems to be doing a lot better than us.

Ed: Maoster on that site Spain is showing zero new cases, but I don`t know the reason for that. Needs looking at.

Ed.2.
Spain had 25,496 cases yesterday
aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-s … ls/2103691
With a population of 46.94million that gives
Spain…543

Not.supporting Boris here now.
But it’s.obvious the more people you test the more cases you will get.
In 1st lockdown not many people were tested. People only knew they had it when they were admitted to hospital.
There are thousands who’ve had it and didn’t know they had it as they went tested.

And every country obviously uses different data and manipulates it to there advantage

And.we did that they eventually moved the goalposts to make otmlook like our figures were lower.

In my honest opinion we will.mever ever know the real.number lost to covid here or in any country. As everyone will try and.cover up make the figures look better .

edd1974:
Not.supporting Boris here now.
But it’s.obvious the more people you test the more cases you will get.
In 1st lockdown not many people were tested. People only knew they had it when they were admitted to hospital.
There are thousands who’ve had it and didn’t know they had it as they went tested.

And every country obviously uses different data and manipulates it to there advantage

And.we did that they eventually moved the goalposts to make otmlook like our figures were lower.

In my honest opinion we will.mever ever know the real.number lost to covid here or in any country. As everyone will try and.cover up make the figures look better .

github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
All data I`ve put up (except Spain) is from Johns Hopkins

Here’s a curveball then re covid figures; in the UK if you suspect you’re suffering from the plague you pop along to the free (at point of use) NHS, get your test and if positive get your treatment and your figure is added to the total. In A N other country where you pay for treatment you contract the plague and take to your bed until it hopefully passes. The net result being no number added to that total. Given that covid affects most people in the same way as flu does, do we think that that may be responsible for Britain’s high figures?

Just asking the question.

the maoster:
Here’s a curveball then re covid figures; in the UK if you suspect you’re suffering from the plague you pop along to the free (at point of use) NHS, get your test and if positive get your treatment and your figure is added to the total. In A N other country where you pay for treatment you contract the plague and take to your bed until it hopefully passes. The net result being no number added to that total. Given that covid affects most people in the same way as flu does, do we think that that may be responsible for Britain’s high figures?

Just asking the question.

Perfectly good and proper question it seems to me.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus- … ng-dataset
There are other links on that site too.

It is difficult to accurately measure different countries against each other, but if there are clear differences, such as between Aus & NZ, and the USA & UK then I reckon there is some merit to comparing them.

Whole world of difference between cases and deaths from, not allocated to, this winter’s flu.
Cases depend on the testing method and how many cycles are used to get the positives up to the level required at the time.

Juddian:
Whole world of difference between cases and deaths from, not allocated to, this winter’s flu.
Cases depend on the testing method and how many cycles are used to get the positives up to the level required at the time.

Excess deaths stats help with understanding that.
fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-re … atest.html
Public Health England.

Since March 2019 there have been 69,925 more deaths than would be expected. That is nearly a 20% increase, so isn`t a mere blip.
In that period 73,606 of the deaths had C19 as being a factor in death.

The first chart shows the weekly number of excess deaths (both as covid related and not) and it seems clear there is a significant rise recently.

Now, here are the flu stats for the UK for previous years
gov.uk/government/statistic … lu-reports
And here is a FullFact piece on the misleading FaceBook stuff about flu deaths in previous years:
fullfact.org/online/october-202 … -pandemic/

The present pandemic is much more deadly than previous flu troubles.
And that is even with all the precautions, lockdowns, social distancing etc we have now.
We are taking more trouble, but it is worse that the flu by miles*

*miles is slightly less than ferkin miles