120.7p for Petrol, 124.7 for derv @ ASDA
The return of the fuel duty escalator
Tory ■■■■■!
If the fuel escalator was run properly, we would still see falling prices at the pumps - because it would take the effect of “10p off wholesale, 8p off at the pumps, 4p added by escalator thus 4p less overall”…
Right now, we’ve seen a 27% drop in crude since June, but only a 6% drop at the pumps.
If the government re-introduced the so-called “unpopular” fuel duty escalator system with the proviso that “an extra levy will be charged on amounts not passed onto end customers”…
I suggest that even if we saw an extra 2p of duty introduced per 10p of lower wholesale prices - we’d still be moving towards the 100p per litre levels by the end of the financial year.
Alteratively, if energy companies cannot be trusted ‘to do the right thing’ - ever - then we could scrap fuel duty outright, and replace it with a very high “special corporate tax rate” especially for energy companies, based on their gross sales rather than net profits - so big minus items like corporate expense accounts & the gulf clear up for BP doesn’t drop back the revenues in a “bad year”…
If the government were to consider such a move, it’s hardly if energy companies would say “Pah! - we’re closing down all forecourts just to cut off our noses here!”
Oil production, refining, and distribution is, and always has been a licence to print money for all concerned - regardless of how low the prices are.
We had 42 gallon barrels of oil on sale for less than a round of drinks throughout the 90’s, - and I don’t remember any oil firms going bust during THAT decade!
Another fall today to multi-year lows for Crude Oil, and with it Unleaded and Diesel:
There’s talk of “governments not wanting it to go any lower than $2 per gallon in the States”…
We’ll see. 
Today’s NYMEX close has it just above that critical psychological $2 level as we speak.
Winseer:
…that would suggest therefore that the 10% drops of this week are “not factored into the price” as yet.I take it the 1.04p/litre is for normal DERV as opposed to cherry?
Local Supermarket has 124.9 as of last monday, and still showing that when I drove past this morning - so the same story there too I reckons…
1.04 + 20% vat = £124.8
Driveroneuk:
Winseer:
…that would suggest therefore that the 10% drops of this week are “not factored into the price” as yet.I take it the 1.04p/litre is for normal DERV as opposed to cherry?
Local Supermarket has 124.9 as of last monday, and still showing that when I drove past this morning - so the same story there too I reckons…
1.04 + 20% vat = £124.8
Surely the price has only hit 1.04 fairly recently - if that’s “ex vat”…
I was thinking that the price INCLUDING vat should be down to around a quid by now.
Won’t the majority of large haulage contracts have a fuel escalator built into them? So as the price drops, so does what you charge.
Our kids told us last week that the last time the crude price was this low, the pump derv price was 98.9p per litre, and he is in the know.
We are all being fleeced somewhere down the supply chain and chatter from the Government is it is the forecourt operators eg Asda, Tesco, BP, Shell that are colluding to keep it high.
Currently 123.7p for Derv at Asda by me and they always seem the first to drop.
This is the long-term chart for Crude Oil going back yonks…
If you remember in 2008 when the crude price flew upto $147 a barrel, the price of Unleaded at the peak was about where it is now. In the 120’s…
Then the price collapsed to $34 a barrel - but the unleaded price never got below 82p at the forecourts!
I’d imagine there’ll be no real pressure to drop prices below £1.00 let along 82p therefore, unless and until that $34 multi-year low point is breached to the downside…
…Another big drop in progress… Getting on towards another 10% down just this week.
Where’s that damned £1 at the forecourts we’re all waiting for?
coreysboys:
Our kids told us last week that the last time the crude price was this low, the pump derv price was 98.9p per litre, and he is in the know.
126.9 when I drove past a BP this morning, 4ppl more than unleaded. However when I was in Ireland last week, diesel was 9c per litre cheaper than unleaded. How that works I have no idea.
Diesel always used to be cheaper than petrol until diesel cars became popular and demand grew. Presumably they then slapped more tax on it, “because they could.”
The oil companies will argue that the oil they are refining now was bought way back when the price was dearer.
The tankers loading the cheaper oil now will probably be anchored somewhere like Torbay waiting for the price to increase and then zoom into Milford haven and make a fortune. Just a one pence a litre increase must be a small fortune on a super tanker load.
Was quoted 99.25ppl ex vat yesterday and still dropping.
Numbum:
The oil companies will argue that the oil they are refining now was bought way back when the price was dearer.
The tankers loading the cheaper oil now will probably be anchored somewhere like Torbay waiting for the price to increase and then zoom into Milford haven and make a fortune. Just a one pence a litre increase must be a small fortune on a super tanker load.
Yes, it’s funny how they are always “not” long the market when the price is rising, but when it’s falling “Ooh we brought all this at the top weeks ago”…
The airlines have to be the worst for doing this ^^^^ though…
The contract shown in the chart above is for 42,000 gallons of RBOB unleaded gasoline.
If you’d have bought it at the top of that chart, each 0.0001point it falls loses you $4.20 or the fall from 3.0000 to 2.0000 loses you $42,000 if you prefer.
The drop for today alone is 0.1 or over 1000 of those small points, so shorting it on Wednesday and buying it back today would be netting you over $4200 profit for a 2-day trade.
Indeed, the “high to low” of 2.0800 to 1.8600 represents a drop of 2400 ticks, which would actually make or lose just over $10,000 with a $25 commission typically to trade that single contract.
Quite a ride for a two day “speculation” investment…
Trading these contracts has such a bad reputation - because rookie punters can’t usually get their mind around the concept of “shorting” where you sell something you have not bought yet - which pays the big bucks out as the market falls, and drains thousands out of your account when you’ve “bought” it instead, thinking “That’s how you invest in commodities”…
The down-moves are generally a lot sharper than the up moves in any market. It always seem to make a lot more sense to me to “wait for a price to go sky-high to start with, get short, then just wait for the cash to roll in”. Of course, picking the correct “top of the market” isn’t as easy as it looks. You don’t really start to make serious amounts until the Banks have decided that the “top is in” themselves, and get in there behind you.
All the same, I’m surprised that with prevailing interest rates at a measly 0.5% - people insist on leaving their money “uninvested” in bank accounts for it to be eroded by the higher rate of inflation, ie a guaranteed loss over time. In my view, investing in something like Property is far more risky, as not only can you lose money when the market falls - you’ve got all that hassle dealing with solicitors, getting the place decorated, hoping you don’t buy a lemon because of a failed “search”, or getting nightmare tenants that never pay up, and then take months to evict… 
I hope it goes up again, I earn more money if fuel prices are high. We get a fuel surcharge based on achieving 6mpg, as I get higher fuel returns than that, I get to keep a nice chunk of the surcharge, if prices are high enough the surcharge actually pays for all my fuel and at a certain price I’m actually being paid to put fuel in my tanks!
There are a couple of theories on the low prices, one is that the US and OPEC are trying to starve Russia out of the oil business, or that OPEC is trying to make the US fracking operations unprofitable so it can once again control the oil prices.
Whichever it is, it won’t be a short war, so we could be seeing lower prices for quite a while, which can have a very positive effect on the economy, hopefully positive enough that the parasite traders, that cause oil prices to fluctuate so much in normal times, put their money elsewhere and stay out of oil for good.
I would have thought that Russia has more untapped sources of Oil and Gas than anywhere else on the planet.
Sure, the price dropping hurts what they stand to make in revenues - but it is appaling that the price has been sky high for years now - and just when it suits the west, the price drops… It’s like Haliburton and Bush Junior - Voters were told “A vote for Bush is a vote for $100 oil”. Well, that proved to be prophetic enough didn’t it?
Judging by the number of private vehicles on the road these days with only a driver in them - Motoring just isn’t expensive enough for the “wasters” that are charging the taxpayer to fill their tanks, instead of paying for it themselves. How else does one explain the queue to fill up the 4x4 at the MSA fourcourt that charges 10p more than down the road?
As for trying to drive up the price by cutting production - that’s no more an upward effect than the DCPC was in creating a “shortage of drivers”. It HAS driven up rates - but only for those who’ve pumped for it! - Has anyone had any decent “automatic” pay rises in full time work of late?
As well as Russia - we’ve also got ISIS running a few oil fields I believe… It would have made more sense to put boots on the ground, take back the north Iraq oilfields, and recognise a new state of Kurdistan - assuming that Turkey doesn’t want to give the Kurds full autonomy (like DevoMax) so that the kurdish region can remain part of Turkey…
Even talk of “No war in Iran” now - has had a negative effect on the Oil price.
Perhaps we’ll have the new, lower fuel prices until the Republicans get back in now…
(1) Opec have announce NO cut in Oil production again - in other words, the current glut on the market will NOT be stopped for the next month at least.
(2) The American EIA report expecting a rise in demand for Oil (estimated to be 2,600,000 barrels) actually came in as a OVERSUPPLY of 1,454,000 barrels.
Both these have the effect of further suppressing the oil price today, on top of the falls over previous weeks.
Airlines have also announced bumper profits today - because they’ve not been passing the lowering fuel prices into their tickets…
…What we’ve come to expect from greedy corporate concerns essentially.
Meanwhile, back at home - These “protests” for 115p prices at the pumps seem a little modest…
They should be below a quid by now, and I’ve already seen 116.9 driving around Essex this week.
(The time on the chart is Chicago time btw. It’s six hours behind GMT, so that big drop-off at the end has happened in the last hour… Kinda up-to-date then. 
Wednesdays at 15:30 GMT is when the EIA figures are released each week. 
Asda price today in Hastings
115.7p and 119.7p
Petrol just dropped another penny now 114.7p