I don’t think pessimistic remainers and optimistic brexiters will ever agree. But if there’s a happy medium between best and worst case scenario, we’ll be ok. If that’s wto, what does that really mean? Well unless you’re buying brand new cars every couple of months, around a 2% rise on the eu goods in your shopping basket. It could mean, in time, a reduction of the same amount on non eu items in your basket. And while your boss might need to find an extra 4 grand for his new BMW, the majority of us will only see second hand cars rise by around 3-5%. And if you’re in a position to buy a new Focus or Astra, it’ll be roughly £30 a month to cover the 10% tariff
Bluey Circles:
Franglais:
Bluey Circles:
kr79:
Once brexit negotiations start it will be interesting to see what pressure Mercedes bmw vw group etc put on the German government as we are a big market for them.just looking at Scanias figures for 2015. 47,000 units sold, 7000 of which were to the UK - 15% of their sales within the Europe. They won’t be letting their government damage that sort of business with retaliatory tariffs. The UK is a massive economy.
I can see what you mean, but how much damage would it really do to them? All other heavy trucks would be taxed to the same level. Their market share would remain constant wouldn
t it? Its not as if UK hauliers are going to buy Leyland T45s. The overall UK market might diminish as hauliers hold on to vehicles longer. What would be too great a price for the Eu to pay in order to keep the other members on board? A UK haulage industry paying more for its trucks, so increasing its costs, is gonna be good news and mean expansion for those buying cheaper kit, surely? Less Scanias sold in the UK, more sold in the Eu?
Lack of UK buyers for German etc cars is maybe more of issue for them, maybe.I don’t think any of these big players would be willing to tolerate even small percentage losses in the guise of political expediency. Guess they will have very persuasive lobbiests to stop restrictive tariffs to their markets.
With a full-on free trade deal with the USA we would have to open up our markets fully to theirs, and they would not tolerate daft EU type rules to hinder them, and they would be very interested in getting a foot in the door, American cars & trucks, not a pleasant thought but along with genetically modified food and growth hormone rich meat, in any ‘true’ free trade deal, Trump will insist on full access to our markets.
Im sure youre correct that the Eu motor and other manufacturers are working hard to make their feelings known. I wonder how much they will be listened to tho?
Free Trade with the US and a President who repeatedly talks about bringing jobs into America is not gonna bode well for anyone. I dont think G.M. food is the horror some believe it to be, but can see your point of us being forced to swallow (literally) bleach cleaned, hormone and antibiotic enriched meat produce. US vehicles are not the most economic or best built, so having them imported at zero tax cost, against Eu produce with a tax wont do our competitiveness much good methinks. And if we ARE in a free trade zone with the US you can bet that the US will put big taxes on Eu goods, and that WILL apply to us. We wont be semi detached from any NAFTA zone deal any more than we can be from a Eu zone deal. And your phrase of "Trump will insist on full access" is bringing a truly horrendous image into my minds eye. 
Franglais:
Bluey Circles:
Franglais:
Bluey Circles:
just looking at Scanias figures for 2015. 47,000 units sold, 7000 of which were to the UK - 15% of their sales within the Europe. They won’t be letting their government damage that sort of business with retaliatory tariffs. The UK is a massive economy.I can see what you mean, but how much damage would it really do to them? All other heavy trucks would be taxed to the same level. Their market share would remain constant wouldn
t it? Its not as if UK hauliers are going to buy Leyland T45s. The overall UK market might diminish as hauliers hold on to vehicles longer. What would be too great a price for the Eu to pay in order to keep the other members on board? A UK haulage industry paying more for its trucks, so increasing its costs, is gonna be good news and mean expansion for those buying cheaper kit, surely? Less Scanias sold in the UK, more sold in the Eu?
Lack of UK buyers for German etc cars is maybe more of issue for them, maybe.I don’t think any of these big players would be willing to tolerate even small percentage losses in the guise of political expediency. Guess they will have very persuasive lobbiests to stop restrictive tariffs to their markets.
With a full-on free trade deal with the USA we would have to open up our markets fully to theirs, and they would not tolerate daft EU type rules to hinder them, and they would be very interested in getting a foot in the door, American cars & trucks, not a pleasant thought but along with genetically modified food and growth hormone rich meat, in any ‘true’ free trade deal, Trump will insist on full access to our markets.
I
m sure youre correct that the Eu motor and other manufacturers are working hard to make their feelings known. I wonder how much they will be listened to tho?
Free Trade with the US and a President who repeatedly talks about bringing jobs into America is not gonna bode well for anyone. I dont think G.M. food is the horror some believe it to be, but can see your point of us being forced to swallow (literally) bleach cleaned, hormone and antibiotic enriched meat produce. US vehicles are not the most economic or best built, so having them imported at zero tax cost, against Eu produce with a tax wont do our competitiveness much good methinks. And if we ARE in a free trade zone with the US you can bet that the US will put big taxes on Eu goods, and that WILL apply to us. We wont be semi detached from any NAFTA zone deal any more than we can be from a Eu zone deal. And your phrase of "Trump will insist on full access" is bringing a truly horrendous image into my minds eye.
I’m not one of those who believe the EU need to trade with us more than we need to trade with them, but for most of the most leading EU countries we are in the top 5 of their export markets and the UK is a huge market for German car industry, from all the data I’ve read and not in Pro Brexit media we are by far the largest market for German cars, that coupled with a possible reduction in capacity and jobs with a buyout of GM Europe by PSA and the recent problem at VW, I think they’ll lobby hard for a deal. On the otherside we export more cars to the EU (not many more) than we Import from Germany,
However the EU establishment feels under-threat from a rise in the Populist movement across the EU, and this threat could get worse if some of the Elections in the EU either return a populist leader or at the very least gives the populist movement more power in national governments, pushing the agenda away from more integration and even towards leaving the Eurozone or the EU. So the establishment will be pushing to show that leaving the EU isn’t an option anybody else should consider.
As for free trade deals with the US, it scares me as well, after leaving the EU and avoiding TTIP and all the extra power that gave global corporations over elected Governments, it would be a bizarre to give it away on some rushed trade deal to prove a point.
OVLOV JAY:
I don’t think pessimistic remainers and optimistic brexiters will ever agree. But if there’s a happy medium between best and worst case scenario, we’ll be ok. If that’s wto, what does that really mean? Well unless you’re buying brand new cars every couple of months, around a 2% rise on the eu goods in your shopping basket. It could mean, in time, a reduction of the same amount on non eu items in your basket. And while your boss might need to find an extra 4 grand for his new BMW, the majority of us will only see second hand cars rise by around 3-5%. And if you’re in a position to buy a new Focus or Astra, it’ll be roughly £30 a month to cover the 10% tariff
WTO rules may not affect an in work individual too much at first. But if it affects our global competitiveness then it could easily lead to multinationals pulling out of the UK. Lets see what happens re Vauxhall GM / Renault PSA ? If we are seen as on a downward spiral there will be no friendly Eu community to support us. (moan about em but the Eu is helping Greece). A failing or, lets just say, less than buoyant economy will lead to higher unemployment and greater social costs. Your cars cost will be 10% higher because of tax, maybe 10% higher because of the falling pound, fuel priced in dollars will rise too, your taxes will be more because of the costs of keeping the under-employed, with fewer jobs your wages wont rise. OK, OK, that may be being pessimistic, but Im afraid not at all impossible. I hope it wont all come to that, but I see no signs of any "great master plan" emerging to prevent it. If we do get on well itll be all down to luck it seems. As I think I said before if it all comes good Ill be even happier than you, as for me itll be a bigger surprise!
Gotta be glad were English really, its good to know God is batting on our side.
I think we’d have already seen companies leave if it were a serious issue. They will know what the outcomes will mean to their businesses, and I personally believe worse case scenarios are cheaper than relocation. You can’t decide to move production on a Monday and be set up by Wednesday. It takes upwards of 5 years to build new sites. And then it will only benefit what is currently exported into the eu, and will then be offset by the tariffs for importing into the uk. The businesses want us to remain as they want to safeguard profits, and understandably so. But if anyone was going to leave, they’d have already made moves, and the remain camp would have gladly pushed that under our noses
muckles:
I’m not one of those who believe the EU need to trade with us more than we need to trade with them, but for most of the most leading EU countries we are in the top 5 of their export markets and the UK is a huge market for German car industry, from all the data I’ve read and not in Pro Brexit media we are by far the largest market for German cars, that coupled with a possible reduction in capacity and jobs with a buyout of GM Europe by PSA and the recent problem at VW, I think they’ll lobby hard for a deal. On the otherside we export more cars to the EU (not many more) than we Import from Germany,However the EU establishment feels under-threat from a rise in the Populist movement across the EU, and this threat could get worse if some of the Elections in the EU either return a populist leader or at the very least gives the populist movement more power in national governments, pushing the agenda away from more integration and even towards leaving the Eurozone or the EU. So the establishment will be pushing to show that leaving the EU isn’t an option anybody else should consider.
As for free trade deals with the US, it scares me as well, after leaving the EU and avoiding TTIP and all the extra power that gave global corporations over elected Governments, it would be a bizarre to give it away on some rushed trade deal to prove a point.
Whats that Chinese saying/ or is it a curse? "May you live in interesting times" Well, I think we do. Hopefully Ill tell the little kids gathered around my armchair how foolish I was to be worried about the future. They`ll listen and laugh at me as we wait for the television to show President Trump arriving at 51st State Airfield, formerly known as Heathrow.
Franglais:
OVLOV JAY:
I don’t think pessimistic remainers and optimistic brexiters will ever agree. But if there’s a happy medium between best and worst case scenario, we’ll be ok. If that’s wto, what does that really mean? Well unless you’re buying brand new cars every couple of months, around a 2% rise on the eu goods in your shopping basket. It could mean, in time, a reduction of the same amount on non eu items in your basket. And while your boss might need to find an extra 4 grand for his new BMW, the majority of us will only see second hand cars rise by around 3-5%. And if you’re in a position to buy a new Focus or Astra, it’ll be roughly £30 a month to cover the 10% tariffWTO rules may not affect an in work individual too much at first. But if it affects our global competitiveness then it could easily lead to multinationals pulling out of the UK. Let`s see what happens re Vauxhall GM / Renault PSA ?
Agreed about Multinationals, but Vauxhall/GM future is likely to be the same regardless of whether we’re in the EU or not. It’s what happens when multi-national corporations merge and look to cut costs.
Franglais:
If we are seen as on a downward spiral there will be no friendly Eu community to support us. (moan about `em but the Eu is helping Greece).
EU helping Greece seems to be imposing crippling austerity measures on them, and I believe the help is there to keep them in the Eurozone, the fear isn’t so much Greece leaving, but it encouraging other countries such as Italy to leave.
Saying that there is increasing grass roots resentment in Germany that they’re bailing out Greece and increasing resentment in other Eurozone countries that the Euro gives Germany a competitive edge as the weaker Eurozone countries depress the Euro’s value, but a currency biased on the German economy alone would be valued far higher than the currencies in other Eurozone countries, meaning those countries could use their weaker currency to compete on more expensive exports from Germany.
OVLOV JAY:
I think we’d have already seen companies leave if it were a serious issue. They will know what the outcomes will mean to their businesses, and I personally believe worse case scenarios are cheaper than relocation. You can’t decide to move production on a Monday and be set up by Wednesday. It takes upwards of 5 years to build new sites. And then it will only benefit what is currently exported into the eu, and will then be offset by the tariffs for importing into the uk. The businesses want us to remain as they want to safeguard profits, and understandably so. But if anyone was going to leave, they’d have already made moves, and the remain camp would have gladly pushed that under our noses
By your arguments about timescales youre defeating yourself. We havent left the Eu. We havent even started talking about leaving the Eu. No company is going to act when they have no idea what is happening next, as you rightly say. So, saying none have left is somewhat premature. Having a 10% tax on goods into the UK from all the rest of the EU is less than having a 10% tax on goods from the UK to all the rest of the Eu isnt it?
Did I explain that OK?
Say Honsan want a factory in western europe. Projected market of 20% in the UK and 80% Eu.
Factory in Eu 20% of output gets taxed.
Factory in UK 80% of output taxed.
Taxes put up retail prices and dampen sales in a competitive marketplace.
Where do you reckon Honsans factory will be built? Do we argue were more competitive? How? Land prices are currently high in the UK. Do we want to be a cheap labour pool in order to survive? Big business may be happy with that outcome but the majority of the rest of us wont be doing too well Id say.
Franglais:
OVLOV JAY:
I think we’d have already seen companies leave if it were a serious issue. They will know what the outcomes will mean to their businesses, and I personally believe worse case scenarios are cheaper than relocation. You can’t decide to move production on a Monday and be set up by Wednesday. It takes upwards of 5 years to build new sites. And then it will only benefit what is currently exported into the eu, and will then be offset by the tariffs for importing into the uk. The businesses want us to remain as they want to safeguard profits, and understandably so. But if anyone was going to leave, they’d have already made moves, and the remain camp would have gladly pushed that under our nosesBy your arguments about timescales you
re defeating yourself. We havent left the Eu. We havent even started talking about leaving the Eu. No company is going to act when they have no idea what is happening next, as you rightly say. So, saying none have left is somewhat premature. Having a 10% tax on goods into the UK from all the rest of the EU is less than having a 10% tax on goods from the UK to all the rest of the Eu isnt it?
Did I explain that OK?
Say Honsan want a factory in western europe. Projected market of 20% in the UK and 80% Eu.
Factory in Eu 20% of output gets taxed.
Factory in UK 80% of output taxed.
Taxes put up retail prices and dampen sales in a competitive marketplace.
Where do you reckon Honsans factory will be built? Do we argue were more competitive? How? Land prices are currently high in the UK. Do we want to be a cheap labour pool in order to survive? Big business may be happy with that outcome but the majority of the rest of us wont be doing too well Id say.
I’m not defeating myself at all. We are coming out, so why would a company wait until we’re out before trying to identify sites, put plans in place, and get them built and open. If things were so bad, jobs would already be gone, or at the very least going
Franglais:
muckles:
I’m not one of those who believe the EU need to trade with us more than we need to trade with them, but for most of the most leading EU countries we are in the top 5 of their export markets and the UK is a huge market for German car industry, from all the data I’ve read and not in Pro Brexit media we are by far the largest market for German cars, that coupled with a possible reduction in capacity and jobs with a buyout of GM Europe by PSA and the recent problem at VW, I think they’ll lobby hard for a deal. On the otherside we export more cars to the EU (not many more) than we Import from Germany,However the EU establishment feels under-threat from a rise in the Populist movement across the EU, and this threat could get worse if some of the Elections in the EU either return a populist leader or at the very least gives the populist movement more power in national governments, pushing the agenda away from more integration and even towards leaving the Eurozone or the EU. So the establishment will be pushing to show that leaving the EU isn’t an option anybody else should consider.
As for free trade deals with the US, it scares me as well, after leaving the EU and avoiding TTIP and all the extra power that gave global corporations over elected Governments, it would be a bizarre to give it away on some rushed trade deal to prove a point.
What
s that Chinese saying/ or is it a curse? "May you live in interesting times" Well, I think we do. Hopefully Ill tell the little kids gathered around my armchair how foolish I was to be worried about the future. They`ll listen and laugh at me as we wait for the television to show President Trump arriving at 51st State Airfield, formerly known as Heathrow.
We are in interesting times, but not sure how old you are, but I feel I’ve lived through interesting times before and got out of the other side.
And this disruption of the status quo can also been seen as an opportunity. The average people of the Western World seem to be waking up to what has been done in their name by the Establishment and aren’t happy, I might not agree with the new leaders they found to lead their cause, but I’m pleased they’ve given the people a voice.
The Neo liberal establishment has taken as for granted, offering one set suited political clone over another at each election and then treating us with contempt for the next 5 years. Alistair Campbell let the cat out of the bag on how much he believed in the electorate and democracy during an interview with Robert Peston a few weeks ago, when the invited comedian said he thought it was great that politics was being discussed by average people, Campbell Disagreed saying politics should be done by those that know what it’s about. And then we have Blair, I won’t comment on his calling for a second referendum, he’s entitled to his views. But he held the people in contempt when he lied to us about the reasons for going to war in Iraq.
We hear a lot about fake news these days and protests over Trump, but surely WMD’s was one of the biggest and costliest fake news stories ever, backed by the Establishment media and Politicians of all sides. So where were the protesters outside the hall last week calling for his impeachment?
Is that “Chinese tipper” the Sinotruck? Send it to Woodstock, I’ll give it a go. Would like to try a Liu Gong backhoe loader too, can’t be much worse than JCB build quality.
OVLOV JAY:
I’m not defeating myself at all. We are coming out, so why would a company wait until we’re out before trying to identify sites, put plans in place, and get them built and open. If things were so bad, jobs would already be gone, or at the very least going
“You can’t decide to move production on a Monday and be set up by Wednesday. It takes upwards of 5 years to build new sites”
Maybe companies are looking, but waiting to see what deals are struck before committing themselves? As you said itll take years to decide to move a factory and no company will do that without all the facts. No exit deals as yet, so they dont know which way to jump. Maybe well get a good deal and all will be good? IF, and when they decide to go, itll be the workers involved wholl be the last to know, as ever. Far too early to say alls well at the moment I`d say.
Franglais:
OVLOV JAY:
I’m not defeating myself at all. We are coming out, so why would a company wait until we’re out before trying to identify sites, put plans in place, and get them built and open. If things were so bad, jobs would already be gone, or at the very least going“You can’t decide to move production on a Monday and be set up by Wednesday. It takes upwards of 5 years to build new sites”
Maybe companies are looking, but waiting to see what deals are struck before committing themselves? As you said itll take years to decide to move a factory and no company will do that without all the facts. No exit deals as yet, so they dont know which way to jump. Maybe well get a good deal and all will be good? IF, and when they decide to go, itll be the workers involved wholl be the last to know, as ever. Far too early to say alls well at the moment I`d say.
I just think they’d be all too vocal about leaving, in the hope of a better deal, or no Brexit whatsoever
muckles:
We are in interesting times, but not sure how old you are, but I feel I’ve lived through interesting times before and got out of the other side.
And this disruption of the status quo can also been seen as an opportunity. The average people of the Western World seem to be waking up to what has been done in their name by the Establishment and aren’t happy, I might not agree with the new leaders they found to lead their cause, but I’m pleased they’ve given the people a voice.The Neo liberal establishment has taken as for granted, offering one set suited political clone over another at each election and then treating us with contempt for the next 5 years. Alistair Campbell let the cat out of the bag on how much he believed in the electorate and democracy during an interview with Robert Peston a few weeks ago, when the invited comedian said he thought it was great that politics was being discussed by average people, Campbell Disagreed saying politics should be done by those that know what it’s about. And then we have Blair, I won’t comment on his calling for a second referendum, he’s entitled to his views. But he held the people in contempt when he lied to us about the reasons for going to war in Iraq.
We hear a lot about fake news these days and protests over Trump, but surely WMD’s was one of the biggest and costliest fake news stories ever, backed by the Establishment media and Politicians of all sides. So where were the protesters outside the hall last week calling for his impeachment?
Ive seen enough things happen to know Im crap at predicting anything. So that makes me the equal of any politician or economist.
I agree with what youre saying, but there is the point that even fools can be correct sometimes, if we say enough sometimes we must be right. Let me just cherry pick from your comments: " Alistair Campbell let the cat out of the bag on how much he believed in the electorate and democracy during an interview with Robert Peston a few weeks ago, when the invited comedian said he thought it was great that politics was being discussed by average people, Campbell Disagreed saying politics should be done by those that know what it's about". Im no fan of Campbell, but. . . looking westwards . . .maybe he has a point there. . 
OVLOV JAY:
Franglais:
OVLOV JAY:
I’m not defeating myself at all. We are coming out, so why would a company wait until we’re out before trying to identify sites, put plans in place, and get them built and open. If things were so bad, jobs would already be gone, or at the very least going“You can’t decide to move production on a Monday and be set up by Wednesday. It takes upwards of 5 years to build new sites”
Maybe companies are looking, but waiting to see what deals are struck before committing themselves? As you said itll take years to decide to move a factory and no company will do that without all the facts. No exit deals as yet, so they dont know which way to jump. Maybe well get a good deal and all will be good? IF, and when they decide to go, itll be the workers involved wholl be the last to know, as ever. Far too early to say alls well at the moment I`d say.I just think they’d be all too vocal about leaving, in the hope of a better deal, or no Brexit whatsoever
I seem to remember that when any company leader made any comment during the Brexit debate there was a great cry about them interfering in the democratic process? No-one would listen to company leaders as they have no trust in them. Maybe they thought better stay stumm than provoke an even larger protest vote mayhaps?
The vote has already been done. The only influence they can have is hoping to be listened too by David Davies and his department.
On a separate note, one of the big business leaders you speak of, Charlie Mullins, got a bit of a bloody nose for dry shafting his workers recently. Funny that he was an avid remainer. Makes you wonder whether the eu works for the worker or the employer 
Franglais:
Ive seen enough things happen to know Im crap at predicting anything. So that makes me the equal of any politician or economist.
I agree with what youre saying, but there is the point that even fools can be correct sometimes, if we say enough sometimes we must be right. Let me just cherry pick from your comments: " Alistair Campbell let the cat out of the bag on how much he believed in the electorate and democracy during an interview with Robert Peston a few weeks ago, when the invited comedian said he thought it was great that politics was being discussed by average people, Campbell Disagreed saying politics should be done by those that know what it's about". Im no fan of Campbell, but. . . looking westwards . . .maybe he has a point there. .
I take a lot of the Anti Trump stuff with a pinch of salt and I think a lot of it is bandwagon jumping.
I remember a lot of similar stuff said about Regan.
The US media is Liberal, they’re annoyed that their candidate didn’t win and Trump is totally opposed to their political ideals.
Trumps a Republican doesn’t want gun control and wants to play the hard man over crime and immigration. Nothing new there.
Trump (maybe for reasons we don’t know yet) wants better relationship with Russia, surely it’s better to have dialog on a friendly basis than another Cold War. But then apparently he has said that the Crimea should be handed back to the Ukraine. We can’t just blame Russia for the situation in the Ukraine, the West were messing about there as well backing their side and offering NATO and EU membership.
The West messed up Syria and their handling of the region they armed rebel groups who turned out to be radicals and no better than the regime they were fighting against. Clinton seemed to be keen to continue to do the same when she said she’d have a no fly zone over Aleppo, putting US fighters in direct conflict with Russian jets, this sounded far more scary to me than an old tape of a man boating about grabbing women. Although I found that remark quite nauseating.
He wants to put up a wall, on a border that already has a fence, ok maybe not a practical solution and walls have major symbolism, but in recent years some European Countries have built large border barriers and increased security on their borders, so why is this so different?
Donald Trump is a worry, Politically inexperienced and sometimes seems to have the emotional intelligence of a teenager with his need to be liked and prove his popularity. But Clinton represented the same establishment who have held us in contempt for years and wants to promote globalisation regardless of what it does to ordinary people.
PS I wouldn’t like to predict anything either, especially over how the Trump presidency works out of even how long it lasts.
The American electorate had a hard choice: Who was the least worst option? Glad I didn`t have to live with being on any winning side in that contest.
OVLOV JAY:
Anyone with half a brain realises there is a need for such goods we use everyday, and someone will fill the gap, whether that be the eu under tariffs, other countries under new trade deals, or a return to U.K. manufacturing itself. One thing is for sure, we will survive. It’s not going to be armageddon after the eu
Realistically we either get back our manufacturing industry and use it first and foremost to supply the domestic market,within a protectionist,as opposed to free markets,system.Or we sink under the continuing debt caused by our unsustainable trade deficit and the under employment of our own workforce.That applies whether we are in or out of the EU.With the single market obviously being a hindrance not a help in that.Unless anyone is seriously suggesting that the Germans or the French were ever going to compromise their own national interest and economies in favour of ours.Ironically the situation of the conflict of interest between those big EU players,in the form of PSA v Opel’s work forces,could actually help in making European workers see that free trade between EU states isn’t actually in their interests.
The idea of us being an assembler of European manufactured components,as opposed to licence local ‘manufacture’,being part of that.Also on the basis that if the US giants like GM want to commit commercial suicide we don’t follow them and we keep making what rightfully belongs to us as part of any ‘licence’ manufacturing deal and we don’t run a trade policy that allows our own industries to be taken out by pointless foreign imports.While the Australian issue regarding the closure of Holden and Ford is another example of all that.
Franglais:
The American electorate had a hard choice: Who was the least worst option? Glad I didn`t have to live with being on any winning side in that contest.
It was the point where you wanted the option from Brewster’s Millions of “None of the Above” 