Dolph it’s all posturing, bluff and bluster at the moment, Article 50 by end of March is what’s on the cards.
What negotiations are taking place behind closed doors is anybodies guess but the reason for Article 50 delay was mainly to protect our position but also nobody had a clue due to the shock referendum result.
Theresa May can announce her intent “by the end of March 2017” - but that might not need “Aricle 50” to be invoked - if it is seen by that point as “putting Brexit back another two years”.
The last of the current round of trade routes coming to the end of their cycle - will determine the exact timing.
Prices for goods already in transit have been fixed and agreed, and laid off on the forex market if neccessary.
There will be upward pressure on “new” contracts about to commence between the UK and the EU for sure, as and when they come up for renewal over coming weeks and months.
ALL the current price pressures, threat to inflation etc. is purely about the apparent one-way direction of Sterling of late. NOTHING else!
Just as Cameron’s government had “no plan” for Brexit winning the poll - it seems that the establishment figures STILL have “no plan” and are reacting to current scenarios rather than trying to shape the future of them.
The pound could stop falling at any time, which is common in market movements. Sterling is not going the way of the Zimbabwe inflation - and the scare stories inplying that “inflation could be runaway” need to desist.
That Mark Carney still bangs the drum for “It’s not too late to turn back” smacks of who his paymasters really are I guess.
Meanwhile, trade going the other way is now booming on the back of that same weak pound, once again “for the time being”.
After Britain pulled out of the ERM in 1992, the pound collapsed around 30% against the Deutschmark, less so against other currencies. Britain didn’t have a large Deutschmark currency reserve at the time, so we ended up losing over £3billion over it. THIS time around - we’ve yet to start losing that amount, have lost hardly anything in trying to defend the pound on the way down, and most importantly - We have already built up a substantial Euro reserve - which is now flying high into profit… .Carney can book this profit and re-patriate that money any time he wants. I hope he has the sense to do so before announcing something that will cause the pound to rally again.
All in all, we’re better off now than we were in 1993. The only thing that the public suffered during this period was £1500 per month mortgage payments upon two-up-two-down properties.
The loss of such people would lead to the Tory defeat in the 1997 election it could be argued, but this time around? - Who’s actually lost ANYTHING so far that they had no choice but to lose?
You don’t have to take a foreign holiday.
You don’t have to buy that German car…
You still can’t get that well-paid job abroad, despite the higher Euro.
The downside to the public majority then - is merely perception of downside.
We’re taking the plaster off too slowly… You don’t carefully peel off a leg wax either.
You do it FAST and GET IT OVER with. Less, but sharper pain that way. We all know it makes sense.
We should be running away from any notions of “sticking all that hair back in place” by this point. We’re already beyond the point of no return - now the job just needs to not be hampered by Remoaner establishment figures any longer.
I do not fear for my job at this time. Less foreign trucks on our roads is safer for all of us, and creates more runs for us domestic drivers to boot.
In all of this? - I’ll just say “Immigration” at the very end - just so I can say the word was included in all these essays I’ve been writing of late. 
Dolph:
What is this crap about article 50 and EU not letting you use it■■?
The representative Government of the member state that wants to leave must deposit an official request to leave the EU and negotiate its exit.
Firstly the ‘government’ doesn’t want to negotiate an ‘exit’ because it’s dominated by remainers pushing an obvious remain agenda of stalling for time.
While even if it did it’s clear that the wording of the document has been made with the intention of creating a catch 22 that effectively removes the right of secession.
While if you’re as keen to get it over with as you say you are you’ll obviously be happy to support the waiving of article 50 in this case and declare UK membership no longer effective as of November 2016 for example.Then we join EFTA and rule out EEA status thereby putting ourselves in a similar situation as Switzerland.
While you need to put your own obvious self interest to one side in that.
Carryfast:
Dolph:
What is this crap about article 50 and EU not letting you use it■■?
The representative Government of the member state that wants to leave must deposit an official request to leave the EU and negotiate its exit.Firstly the ‘government’ doesn’t want to negotiate an ‘exit’ because it’s dominated by remainers pushing an obvious remain agenda of stalling for time.
While even if it did it’s clear that the wording of the document has been made with the intention of creating a catch 22 that effectively removes the right of secession.
While if you’re as keen to get it over with as you say you are you’ll obviously be happy to support the waiving of article 50 in this case and declare UK membership no longer effective as of November 2016 for example.Then we join EFTA and rule out EEA status thereby putting ourselves in a similar situation as Switzerland.
While you need to put your own obvious self interest to one side in that.
Sure, join EFTA, but you will have to follow EU rules. The same way me and you as holders of EU member state passport can go and work in Norway which is not EU member. Are you willing to let EE migrants into UK, no, so why should you have better terms when outside of EU.
Anyone(EU national) who can not find work in Norway more then 6 months from the day of entry must leave immediately.
The same rule Cameron had extorted from EU for Uk to keep you in the union. Which angers a lot of people - UK being privileged all the time.
Talking about EFTA:
"Norway has said it could block an eventual UK bid for EFTA membership. The European affairs minister, Elisabeth Vik Aspaker, said in August it was “not certain it would be a good idea to let a big country into this organisation. It would shift the balance, which is not necessarily in Norway’s interests.”.
Winseer
snip*
… Proper FREE trade should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current contract” and a new potential supplier.
snip
Proper FREE trade transport should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current logistics provider” and a new potential “logistics provider”…
Uhh… wait…
Dolph:
Sure, join EFTA, but you will have to follow EU rules. The same way me and you as holders of EU member state passport can go and work in Norway which is not EU member. Are you willing to let EE migrants into UK, no, so why should you have better terms when outside of EU.
Anyone(EU national) who can not find work in Norway more then 6 months from the day of entry must leave immediately.
The same rule Cameron had extorted from EU for Uk to keep you in the union. Which angers a lot of people - UK being privileged all the time.Talking about EFTA:
"Norway has said it could block an eventual UK bid for EFTA membership. The European affairs minister, Elisabeth Vik Aspaker, said in August it was “not certain it would be a good idea to let a big country into this organisation. It would shift the balance, which is not necessarily in Norway’s interests.”.
-
If we’re a non EEA member state we don’t ‘have to’ follow EU rules at all.Just as Switzerland doesn’t ‘have to’.
-
EEA membership isn’t a condition of EFTA membership.
-
Elisabeth Vik Aspaker doesn’t speak for EFTA as a group regarding it’s relations with the EU,nor could she possibly do so,bearing in mind Switzerand’s non EEA status v Norway’s EEA member state status.While why would our re joining of EFTA now be any different in that regard to how our membership was before we left.IE Norway had no problem then so why should it now.
the nodding donkey:
Proper FREE trade transport should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current logistics provider” and a new potential “logistics provider”…Uhh… wait…
It also means a level playing field regards costs you know things like wage rates.On that note the EU is doing itself no favours on the ‘workers’ rights’ ticket by failing to impose an EU wide minumum wage to reduce the pressures of economic migration and resulting over loading of local services and local over supply of the labour market where wages are relatively higher.Or under cutting to the point of distorting the demand for labour in one place where wages are lower v another where they are higher.
Carryfast:
Dolph:
Sure, join EFTA, but you will have to follow EU rules. The same way me and you as holders of EU member state passport can go and work in Norway which is not EU member. Are you willing to let EE migrants into UK, no, so why should you have better terms when outside of EU.
Anyone(EU national) who can not find work in Norway more then 6 months from the day of entry must leave immediately.
The same rule Cameron had extorted from EU for Uk to keep you in the union. Which angers a lot of people - UK being privileged all the time.Talking about EFTA:
"Norway has said it could block an eventual UK bid for EFTA membership. The European affairs minister, Elisabeth Vik Aspaker, said in August it was “not certain it would be a good idea to let a big country into this organisation. It would shift the balance, which is not necessarily in Norway’s interests.”.
If we’re a non EEA member state we don’t ‘have to’ follow EU rules at all.Just as Switzerland doesn’t ‘have to’.
EEA membership isn’t a condition of EFTA membership.
Elisabeth Vik Aspaker doesn’t speak for EFTA as a group regarding it’s relations with the EU,nor could she possibly do so,bearing in mind Switzerand’s non EEA status v Norway’s EEA member state status.While why would our re joining of EFTA now be any different in that regard to how our membership was before we left.IE Norway had no problem then so why should it now.
Switzerland has a dual system for allowing foreigners to work while in the country. The first concerns citizens from the European Union and/or the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), who are generally allowed to come to Switzerland for three months while they look for work. The period can be extended to six months during an active job hunt with a special short-term permit, issued if you are registered at a regional employment centre and have a good chance of being able to find a job. This permit can be extended for up to a year if you provide evidence that you have been actively looking for a job, and there is reason to think you have a real chance of finding a job. During this period, you are entitled to a short-term residence permit valid for six months provided that you are registered in an employment centre.
On June 23 the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. It will remain an EU member for at least two years while negotiations, which will include the free movement of people, are carried out. After that, it is not clear how Brexit will affect British citizens wanting to work in Switzerland.
Im asking, what are you going to achieve with leaving EU and becoming EFTA member, because in order to have access to the single market you will have to allow some form of free movement of EU nationals?
If you become like Switzerland, nothing will change, EU nationals will keep coming if there is work for us. Regardless of work permit(like in SUI) or not. I found my job one day after my NIN interview, needed the letter that I applied for it, which was 19 days after my arrival. So what is going to stop EE migrant if we have 3 or 6 months to look for work…
Carryfast:
the nodding donkey:
Proper FREE trade transport should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current logistics provider” and a new potential “logistics provider”…Uhh… wait…
It also means a level playing field regards costs you know things like wage rates.On that note the EU is doing itself no favours on the ‘workers’ rights’ ticket by failing to impose an EU wide minumum wage to reduce the pressures of economic migration and resulting over loading of local services and local over supply of the labour market where wages are relatively higher.Or under cutting to the point of distorting the demand for labour in one place where wages are lower v another where they are higher.
Take a break Carryfast. You are losing the big picture. And starting to talk bollards again.
An EU wide minimum wage? Really? £8.50 per hour to drive a wagon in the Czech Republic? I’ll be on my way now. Or do you mean £2.50 per hour in Britain?
I remain yours
Confused
Tunbridge Wells
Carryfast:
the nodding donkey:
Proper FREE trade transport should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current logistics provider” and a new potential “logistics provider”…Uhh… wait…
It also means a level playing field regards costs you know things like wage rates.On that note the EU is doing itself no favours on the ‘workers’ rights’ ticket by failing to impose an EU wide minumum wage to reduce the pressures of economic migration and resulting over loading of local services and local over supply of the labour market where wages are relatively higher.Or under cutting to the point of distorting the demand for labour in one place where wages are lower v another where they are higher.
Hold on for a second, according to you EU is dictatorship, undemocratic etc. Yet you say that EU have to impose minimum wage, but if its done you will blame EU as undemocratic again. As long as EU decisions are liked by you its OK, but if they are not its this and that.
the nodding donkey:
Carryfast:
the nodding donkey:
Proper FREE trade transport should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current logistics provider” and a new potential “logistics provider”…Uhh… wait…
It also means a level playing field regards costs you know things like wage rates.On that note the EU is doing itself no favours on the ‘workers’ rights’ ticket by failing to impose an EU wide minumum wage to reduce the pressures of economic migration and resulting over loading of local services and local over supply of the labour market where wages are relatively higher.Or under cutting to the point of distorting the demand for labour in one place where wages are lower v another where they are higher.
Take a break Carryfast. You are losing the big picture. And starting to talk bollards again.
An EU wide minimum wage? Really? £8.50 per hour to drive a wagon in the Czech Republic? I’ll be on my way now. Or do you mean £2.50 per hour in Britain?I remain yours
Confused
Tunbridge Wells
+1
I will live as a king in BG with that wage, considering the fact that I own my apartment and car over there.
I support Carryfast in his fight with Brussels to impose EU NMW!!! 
the nodding donkey:
Winseer
snip*
… Proper FREE trade should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current contract” and a new potential supplier.
snip
Proper FREE trade transport should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current logistics provider” and a new potential “logistics provider”…
Uhh… wait…
In a proper fluid market capitalist system - that would all be true.
The reality is however complicated by Politics.
This applies even to “domestic” trade routes, and leads to a warped “Arbitrage Channel”.
On a liquid and perfect market - it would be possible for example to buy gold in New York and flog it in London for a price that’s better than New York’s price due to the low cost of shipping and high value of the dollar towards Sterling for instance… Transportation costs and exchange rate would dictate the arbitrage channel - that differential that permits a guaranteed profit to be available, and therefore some shipping magnate to do the deed - and actually shift physical pallets of bullion across the atlantic.
NOW shift to today’s electronic futures markets which are NOT fungible with “Transport” because of difficulties like Syria, Ukraine, Calais, etc. that disrupt the perfect flow of trade.
It is now MUCH harder to ascertain and quantify the arbitrage channel for shifting nearly every and any set of goods pretty much across any border…
The former EU trade agreements were supposed to circumvent such problems - but in fact, they’ve only brought them to the surface as “cause for concern”.
I reckon for instance that if there were no Calais camp, No conflict in East Ukraine, and no proxy presence in Syria - we would easily have voted to Remain in the EU purely on an “I’m alright Jack” basis alone.
The world is changing though - for the worse, and we need to adapt our border strategy and trade routes to suit. Just leaving things “as they are” in this changing political environment is no longer an option.
The Internet has made politicians of us all. We are all delegates with opinions of our own, personal things we choose to believe or disbelieve, and we all fancy ourselves as “experts” in whatever field we choose to bang on about.
Dolph:
Switzerland has a dual system for allowing foreigners to work while in the country. The first concerns citizens from the European Union and/or the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), who are generally allowed to come to Switzerland for three months while they look for work. The period can be extended to six months during an active job hunt with a special short-term permit, issued if you are registered at a regional employment centre and have a good chance of being able to find a job. This permit can be extended for up to a year if you provide evidence that you have been actively looking for a job, and there is reason to think you have a real chance of finding a job. During this period, you are entitled to a short-term residence permit valid for six months provided that you are registered in an employment centre.
On June 23 the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. It will remain an EU member for at least two years while negotiations, which will include the free movement of people, are carried out. After that, it is not clear how Brexit will affect British citizens wanting to work in Switzerland.Im asking, what are you going to achieve with leaving EU and becoming EFTA member, because in order to have access to the single market you will have to allow some form of free movement of EU nationals?
If you become like Switzerland, nothing will change, EU nationals will keep coming if there is work for us. Regardless of work permit(like in SUI) or not. I found my job one day after my NIN interview, needed the letter that I applied for it, which was 19 days after my arrival. So what is going to stop EE migrant if we have 3 or 6 months to look for work…
The point was that as a non EEA member state Switzerland doesn’t ‘have to’ do that.It only does so by choice because it has more to lose by getting involved with a trade war with the EU than we do.While in fact we could only gain being a net importer of EU products.As proved recently when Switzerland held a referendum to impose restrictions on free movement in which the vote actually went against free movement resulting in an ongoing standoff between the two sides.In which case as I said us joining the Swiss in that argument would obviously be a game changer regarding smashing the EU’s economic blackmail of sovereignty for trade.
As for what is going to stop free movement in the interim that’s obviously why we need to tear up article 50 and walk away now.Or at least make a statement that all EU immigration since the referendum result will be subject to retrospective repatriation.May’s agenda obviously not being along any of those lines.
Winseer:
the nodding donkey:
Winseer
snip*
… Proper FREE trade should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current contract” and a new potential supplier.
snip
Proper FREE trade transport should allow one to re-source on a whim when there is a good enough price difference between “current logistics provider” and a new potential “logistics provider”…
Uhh… wait…
In a proper fluid market capitalist system - that would all be true.
The reality is however complicated by Politics.This applies even to “domestic” trade routes, and leads to a warped “Arbitrage Channel”.
On a liquid and perfect market - it would be possible for example to buy gold in New York and flog it in London for a price that’s better than New York’s price due to the low cost of shipping and high value of the dollar towards Sterling for instance… Transportation costs and exchange rate would dictate the arbitrage channel - that differential that permits a guaranteed profit to be available, and therefore some shipping magnate to do the deed - and actually shift physical pallets of bullion across the atlantic.
NOW shift to today’s electronic futures markets which are NOT fungible with “Transport” because of difficulties like Syria, Ukraine, Calais, etc. that disrupt the perfect flow of trade.
It is now MUCH harder to ascertain and quantify the arbitrage channel for shifting nearly every and any set of goods pretty much across any border…
The former EU trade agreements were supposed to circumvent such problems - but in fact, they’ve only brought them to the surface as “cause for concern”.I reckon for instance that if there were no Calais camp, No conflict in East Ukraine, and no proxy presence in Syria - we would easily have voted to Remain in the EU purely on an “I’m alright Jack” basis alone.
The world is changing though - for the worse, and we need to adapt our border strategy and trade routes to suit. Just leaving things “as they are” in this changing political environment is no longer an option.
The Internet has made politicians of us all. We are all delegates with opinions of our own, personal things we choose to believe or disbelieve, and we all fancy ourselves as “experts” in whatever field we choose to bang on about.
Wooosh
Dolph:
the nodding donkey:
An EU wide minimum wage? Really? £8.50 per hour to drive a wagon in the Czech Republic? I’ll be on my way now. Or do you mean £2.50 per hour in Britain?I remain yours
Confused
Tunbridge Wells+1
I will live as a king in BG with that wage, considering the fact that I own my apartment and car over there.
I support Carryfast in his fight with Brussels to impose EU NMW!!!
You do know that would mean prices having to be harmonised too.The point being net removal of the relative difference in wages in real terms thereby reducing the pull factor regarding EE economic migration.Or undercutting of the west euro work force in the transfer of industry eastward.
While if you support the idea there’d obviously be more chance of that in a Confederal Europe that makes the MEP’s democratically accountable to their own electorates.As opposed to a Federal one which doesn’t.
Carryfast:
Dolph:
Switzerland has a dual system for allowing foreigners to work while in the country. The first concerns citizens from the European Union and/or the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), who are generally allowed to come to Switzerland for three months while they look for work. The period can be extended to six months during an active job hunt with a special short-term permit, issued if you are registered at a regional employment centre and have a good chance of being able to find a job. This permit can be extended for up to a year if you provide evidence that you have been actively looking for a job, and there is reason to think you have a real chance of finding a job. During this period, you are entitled to a short-term residence permit valid for six months provided that you are registered in an employment centre.
On June 23 the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. It will remain an EU member for at least two years while negotiations, which will include the free movement of people, are carried out. After that, it is not clear how Brexit will affect British citizens wanting to work in Switzerland.Im asking, what are you going to achieve with leaving EU and becoming EFTA member, because in order to have access to the single market you will have to allow some form of free movement of EU nationals?
If you become like Switzerland, nothing will change, EU nationals will keep coming if there is work for us. Regardless of work permit(like in SUI) or not. I found my job one day after my NIN interview, needed the letter that I applied for it, which was 19 days after my arrival. So what is going to stop EE migrant if we have 3 or 6 months to look for work…The point was that Switzerland doesn’t ‘have to’ do that.It only does so by choice because it has more to lose by getting involved with a trade war with the EU than we do.While in fact we could only gain being a net importer of EU products.As proved recently when Switzerland held a referendum to impose restrictions on free movement in which the vote actually went against free movement resulting in an ongoing standoff between the two sides.In which case as I said us joining the Swiss in that argument would obviously be a game changer regarding smashing the EU’s economic blackmail of sovereignty for trade.
As for what is going to stop free movement in the interim that’s obviously why we need to tear up article 50 and walk away now.Or at least make a statement that all EU immigration since the referendum result will be subject to retrospective repatriation.May’s agenda obviously not being along any of those lines.
The day she makes this statement UK economy will go belly up, simply the pound will become toilet paper.
SUI is ideal example if you want to pick and choose which of the 4 principles to follow. Either all or non. You want freedom and independence, then pay the freaking tariffs and trade with EU on WTO rules. No, you want access to the EU market, but restricting EU nationals and EU legislation on Britain. Do you really think that EU is insane to grant you such a privilege, a privilege that no one have. And frankly why giving you access to the single market, when everything made in UK and sold in EU can be made in EU. Like Nissan moving to Spain or Slovakia for example. You don’t want to be part of the EU project, vision and values, be on your own and enjoy it(I mean it, Im not sarcastic).
“Funny. I went to the gym the other day and they wouldn’t let me use the facilities. I think it’s outrageous that they are punishing me like this for getting rid of my membership a few months ago.”
Carryfast:
Dolph:
the nodding donkey:
An EU wide minimum wage? Really? £8.50 per hour to drive a wagon in the Czech Republic? I’ll be on my way now. Or do you mean £2.50 per hour in Britain?I remain yours
Confused
Tunbridge Wells+1
I will live as a king in BG with that wage, considering the fact that I own my apartment and car over there.
I support Carryfast in his fight with Brussels to impose EU NMW!!!You do know that would mean prices having to be harmonised too.The point being net removal of the relative difference in wages in real terms thereby reducing the pull factor regarding EE economic migration.Or undercutting of the west euro work force in the transfer of industry eastward.
While if you support the idea there’d obviously be more chance of that in a Confederal Europe that makes the MEP’s democratically accountable to their own electorates.As opposed to a Federal one which doesn’t.
Prices in Bulgaria are more expensive then in Western Europe, a lot more expensive. Few examples the diapers for my daughter are 40lv(19GBP), here they are 9,50GBP and the package is bigger. A simple chocolate bar Twix there is 1,00-1,30lv(50p), here I bought 8 for 2.00GBP. Its like this with all prices. Believe me Eastern Europeans would love to have the prices of the West + quality of items destined to Western Europe.
…If that membership fee then involves you gaining weight, becoming less fit - and paying extra to use the gear each day, then I’m still going to let my membership lapse, if not run screaming from the building.
We don’t get out even what we put in. We want to leave the EU because it’s costing us net hard cash.
Being in the EU isn’t so much a “Gym Membership” - it’s more like a “Smoker’s Club” where you don’t even get a free coffin thrown in!
Dolph:
Carryfast:
Dolph:
the nodding donkey:
An EU wide minimum wage? Really? £8.50 per hour to drive a wagon in the Czech Republic? I’ll be on my way now. Or do you mean £2.50 per hour in Britain?I remain yours
Confused
Tunbridge Wells+1
I will live as a king in BG with that wage, considering the fact that I own my apartment and car over there.
I support Carryfast in his fight with Brussels to impose EU NMW!!!You do know that would mean prices having to be harmonised too.The point being net removal of the relative difference in wages in real terms thereby reducing the pull factor regarding EE economic migration.Or undercutting of the west euro work force in the transfer of industry eastward.
While if you support the idea there’d obviously be more chance of that in a Confederal Europe that makes the MEP’s democratically accountable to their own electorates.As opposed to a Federal one which doesn’t.
Prices in Bulgaria are more expensive then in Western Europe, a lot more expensive. Few examples the diapers for my daughter are 40lv(19GBP), here they are 9,50GBP. A simple chocolate bar Twix there is 1,00-1,30lv(50p), here I bought 8 for 2.00GBP. Its like this with all prices. Believe me Eastern Europeans would love to have the prices of the West + quality of items destined to Western Europe.
Wow! That DOES come as a surprise to me - that any nation in the entire EU area could have overtaken us on being “overpriced” for even day-to-day living. I’ve always thought of those nations “traditionally” more expensive than us - being the only ones more expensive than us. There you go! 