Brexit might trigger run on Britain’s record financial debts, S&P warns
Bring it on then!!!
More ‘money’ related scaremongering by the ‘in’ campaign…
I’ve noticed the in camp seems to only talk about money and the (near enough non existent?) economy.
Yet the out camp talks about everything else…
Christ they’re running round like headless chickens.
Bit of unsolicited advice for the remain camp…when in hole stop digging, try not to shoot yourselves in the foot any more than you have to, and finally don’t threaten a real Brit they’ve never taken very kindly to it.
nearly forgot, don’t over-egg the pudding.
Which translates as the banks are over exposed to German investments which will go pear shaped when Germany is left to prop up the basket case EU on its own. 
Juddian:
Christ they’re running round like headless chickens.
Probably just waiting for someone to raise the inconvenient question as to ‘our record debts’ now if the EU is supposedly so good for our economy,compared to where we were in 1960-1972.Or is that at least hoping someone doesn’t. 
Ok I’ll bite.
Are all the financial bodies/experts lying or wrong? I could imagine some are as they may have conflicts of interest but everyone?
alicks77:
Ok I’ll bite.Are all the financial bodies/experts lying or wrong? I could imagine some are as they may have conflicts of interest but everyone?
An answer to the question,if the EU is so good for our economy how do you explain the ‘record debt’ levels after more than 40 years of membership,as opposed to our position in 1960-72,would be good.
Probably like waiting for an answer to the question if it’s supposedly so good for workers rights how do you explain the difference in Union rights and effectiveness in 1972.As opposed to 1979 and 1984 to date.
That’s not what I asked if the economic case for leaving is so strong, why have no financial bodies/experts backed it.
So I ask again. Are the financial bodies/experts wrong or lying when they say remain is best option for uk?
Please do not meander off into the break of yugoslavia or the ottoman empire or gengis khan stuff. Just answer the question.
alicks77:
That’s not what I asked if the economic case for leaving is so strong, why have no financial bodies/experts backed it.So I ask again. Are the financial bodies/experts wrong or lying when they say remain is best option for uk?
Please do not meander off into the break of yugoslavia or the ottoman empire or gengis khan stuff. Just answer the question.
He can’t.
I know. I fear I might get a post on the mistakes Alexander the great made conquering 75% of the earth. Or socalism bad federalism bad post.
One interesting thing I’ve noticed about the remain side is they use an awful lot of “might”, “could”, “may do” etc. and then try to accuse the leave side of not coming up with anything solid…pots & kettles. Surprised Boris and co haven’t pointed this out yet.
I see here’s a German bloke, (can’t remember his proper title / job) saying if we leave, we won’t have access to the common market…
But the way I read it, he came across as if it was THEIR - the GERMANS OWN market!
Says it all…
That Bull must have bad dose of diarrhoea
alicks77:
That’s not what I asked if the economic case for leaving is so strong, why have no financial bodies/experts backed it.So I ask again. Are the financial bodies/experts wrong or lying when they say remain is best option for uk?
Please do not meander off into the break of yugoslavia or the ottoman empire or gengis khan stuff. Just answer the question.
Yes they are talking zb.As I’ve said the motivation for their lies being over exposure of the world banks to the German economy.Which stands to take a massive hit if,preferably when,we leave the scam.Let alone if the Krauts are stupid enough to kick off a trade war with us from their position of trade surplus weakness.
Although it’s a measure of the in campaign’s economic understanding that they think the Germans would gain from imposing tarrifs on their own exports. 
Now it’s time for you put up or shut up.With an answer to the question if the EU is so good for our economy why are we in such massive levels of debt after more than 40 years of membership.
I won’t bother with workers rights question again here because it’s the wrong topic.
So they are all lying, that’s all I want to know.
Wether it has been good economical for us I don’t know, you would need something to compare it too like similar sized economy outwith the EU. For the same period of time we’ve been in it. Anything else is just guessing and conjecture.
As for national debt, I read that it double every 12 year since the war. I think most westernised governments are in the same boat. Apart from the Germans, hence why they will be leading us into a new Dawn. Where England is renamed Germany 2 ( sequels never as good as the original) and glorious Scotland will be liberated.
It could be worse I think us debt doubles every 8 years or quicker. Crazy stuff
Markets:
The Bank of England has been obliged to build up a rather large long position in Euros these past few years since the credit crunch. China remain the biggest net buyer of Euros as a nation buyer around the world however.
If we do Brexit and the pound tanks - the Bank of England will be able to sell those Euros at a very high exchange rate, which would help bring the pound back up - but tank the Euro as they are sold on a large scale BY the bank of England to achieve this re-floating of the pound.
UK Bonds:
As we know, Osbourne borrows more and more new money each month by issuing bonds. Bond prices are high, so one might see it as a “more successful” form of what Gordon Brown did wrongly with Gold.
If the price of pristine debt is high - why not indeed flog as much of it as the market will swallow? Shame he’s borrowed more in six years than Labour did in 13 - and then constantly lies about that fact.
If the market thinks we will have to borrow MASSIVELY by selling a lot more bonds in the future - then bond prices might fall back, meaning future borrowings will be at a higher interest rate for the UK to pay.
I remind the reader that the interest rate one pays on an issued bond is FIXED. It is the bond sale price that determines this FIXED interest rate from the start. Because bond prices fluctuate each day on the financial markets - the interest rate of one bond sold is also going to be different than another of the same bonds sold even a few seconds before or after… That’s the nature of bond market liquidity though.
The price of borrowing increasing is only a problem if your future plans included borrowing ever more heavily, rather than raise taxes on those that can afford to pay raised taxes. We all know where Osbourne is coming from on THAT front. I would suggest that it’s a 9/10 problem for Osbourne, 6/10 problem for “another Tory who might become PM” - but a 10/10 problem for someone like Corbyn who wants to do “People’s QE” which in turn involves selling off a huge wedge of bonds into an already nervous bond market…
SO… The threat of Labour winning the next election with Corbyn still as leader - is what’s spooking the financial markets I suggest…
If Brexit goes smoothly, and Cameron unexpectedly vows to “fully implement it quickly” (so Boris can’t boot him) - the threat of a Labour government by Christmas recedes, and the financial markets rally.
If the financial markets rally, inward investment returns in a panic buying spree, and we all curse ourselves over being so worried over nothing.
Place your bets folks - you only lose if you sell at a loss, or don’t play at all - in which case you can’t win either.
If you have investments - sit on them. The biggest risk to anyone’s portfolio comes from the referendum being very close to 50/50 as a result, and the anarchy that ensues after Cameron loses his majority, his job, and may of his party defecting to UKIP. Labour might also have some surprises with some of them defecting to UKIP as well. This invigorated UKIP would shove the Tories into the unloved Centre ground, and will of course replace the Tories in their vacated “Right” politics.
What’s the chance of a 50/50 result?
Thought to be “high” to start with, but now receding - Thanks to a higher than previously thought turnout.
“Longer time to register” has done us ALL a favour there I think. Brexit need to stop bleating about it. Stuff the Judicial Reviews. The public don’t like displays of “sour grapes” in any case. They should not risk losing some of their on-board supporters - as not everyone has sent that ballot paper off yet. I haven’t! 
alicks77:
So they are all lying, that’s all I want to know.Wether it has been good economical for us I don’t know, you would need something to compare it too like similar sized economy outwith the EU. For the same period of time we’ve been in it. Anything else is just guessing and conjecture.
As for national debt, I read that it double every 12 year since the war. I think most westernised governments are in the same boat. Apart from the Germans, hence why they will be leading us into a new Dawn. Where England is renamed Germany 2 ( sequels never as good as the original) and glorious Scotland will be liberated.
It could be worse I think us debt doubles every 8 years or quicker. Crazy stuff
Firstly we know that Germany got a rigged better deal out of the post WW2 economic recovery package than we did.IE things like its war debt repayments being conditional on it remaining in trade surplus.
While you seem to have missed the point of how we dragged ourselves out of the resulting economic zb storm into the economy which produced the swinging 1960’s culminating in our position in 1972.Including a trade surplus with Europe.
As opposed to that of trade deficit by 1975 and Callaghan having to go running to the IMF and the ‘recession’ of the early 1980’s,to date where we are now in the situation of the stated ‘record debts’.It isn’t rocket science to realise that the EU is part of the problem not the solution and yet more EU obviously isn’t the answer even regarding the economy.Let alone sovereignty.In which only Scottish Socialists masquerading as ‘Nationalists’ could think that being ruled by European Communists hiding under the false flag of so called ‘democrats’ equals ‘liberation’.As for the Germans leading anyone into a new dawn yes just like Greece.
Winseer:
Markets:The Bank of England has been obliged to build up a rather large long position in Euros these past few years since the credit crunch. China remain the biggest net buyer of Euros as a nation buyer around the world however.
If we do Brexit and the pound tanks - the Bank of England will be able to sell those Euros at a very high exchange rate, which would help bring the pound back up - but tank the Euro as they are sold on a large scale BY the bank of England to achieve this re-floating of the pound.
UK Bonds:
As we know, Osbourne borrows more and more new money each month by issuing bonds. Bond prices are high, so one might see it as a “more successful” form of what Gordon Brown did wrongly with Gold.
If the price of pristine debt is high - why not indeed flog as much of it as the market will swallow? Shame he’s borrowed more in six years than Labour did in 13 - and then constantly lies about that fact.
If the market thinks we will have to borrow MASSIVELY by selling a lot more bonds in the future - then bond prices might fall back, meaning future borrowings will be at a higher interest rate for the UK to pay.
I remind the reader that the interest rate one pays on an issued bond is FIXED. It is the bond sale price that determines this FIXED interest rate from the start. Because bond prices fluctuate each day on the financial markets - the interest rate of one bond sold is also going to be different than another of the same bonds sold even a few seconds before or after… That’s the nature of bond market liquidity though.The price of borrowing increasing is only a problem if your future plans included borrowing ever more heavily, rather than raise taxes on those that can afford to pay raised taxes. We all know where Osbourne is coming from on THAT front. I would suggest that it’s a 9/10 problem for Osbourne, 6/10 problem for “another Tory who might become PM” - but a 10/10 problem for someone like Corbyn who wants to do “People’s QE” which in turn involves selling off a huge wedge of bonds into an already nervous bond market…
SO… The threat of Labour winning the next election with Corbyn still as leader - is what’s spooking the financial markets I suggest…
If Brexit goes smoothly, and Cameron unexpectedly vows to “fully implement it quickly” (so Boris can’t boot him) - the threat of a Labour government by Christmas recedes, and the financial markets rally.If the financial markets rally, inward investment returns in a panic buying spree, and we all curse ourselves over being so worried over nothing.
Place your bets folks - you only lose if you sell at a loss, or don’t play at all - in which case you can’t win either.If you have investments - sit on them. The biggest risk to anyone’s portfolio comes from the referendum being very close to 50/50 as a result, and the anarchy that ensues after Cameron loses his majority, his job, and may of his party defecting to UKIP. Labour might also have some surprises with some of them defecting to UKIP as well. This invigorated UKIP would shove the Tories into the unloved Centre ground, and will of course replace the Tories in their vacated “Right” politics.
What’s the chance of a 50/50 result?
Thought to be “high” to start with, but now receding - Thanks to a higher than previously thought turnout.
“Longer time to register” has done us ALL a favour there I think. Brexit need to stop bleating about it. Stuff the Judicial Reviews. The public don’t like displays of “sour grapes” in any case. They should not risk losing some of their on-board supporters - as not everyone has sent that ballot paper off yet. I haven’t!
A logical answer as to why the pound was worth nearly 3 Swiss Francs in 1969 as opposed to its value today would be good at this point in the discussion. 