Win Seering - some predictions for the near future

Now that Farage seems to have thrown Brexit Party’s chances away by backing the Tories - we’ll probably see a rather polarized result at this coming election:

What IF…

First, here’s the WORST result I can think of:

Conservatives: 320 (+2)
Labour: 264 (+1)
SNP 37 (+1)
Libdems: 14 (+1)
DUP 8 (-2)
Plaid Cymru 0 (-4)
Sinn Fein 8 (+1)

with everyone else staying the same…

Corbyn - doesn’t go anywhere. Boris - STILL hasn’t got a majority, Swinson - stays on… NI moves further away from the UK… Parliament - as divided as ever.

Here’s the BEST result I can think of:
Conservatives: 325 (+7)
Labour 62 (-200)
Libdems 0 (-12)
SNP 0 (-35)
DUP 17 (+7)
Sinn Fein 0 (-7)
Green 0 (-1)
Plaid 0 (-4)
Brexit Party 245 (+245)

…making Brexit Party the new opposition. Not going to happen though, I guess. Farage has been too weak in his election play, by refusing to put Boris Johnson’s Conservatives at risk by “standing against them in all seats”, which would have encouraged Labour and Libdem voters - not to mention people that “don’t normally bother at all” - to get out and vote for the Upstart party that could and should have removed the mainstream!

Here’s something more realistic, based on this notion I have that “people will desert ALL minor parties, to try and get either of the main two - over the line…”

Conservatives: 330 (+12)
Labour: 294 (+32)
SNP: 8 (-27)
Libdems: 0 (-12)
Greens: 0 (-1)
Plaid: 0 (-4)
DUP 10 (-)
Sinn Fein 7 (-)
Brexit Party 0 (-)

In this scenario, Boris gets his majority - but it is a WEAK one, with over 100 Remainers still in his party.
“His Oven-Ready Deal” - will be reluctantly accepted by the ERG, as “The best we can now get”, and yet will still require a whipped vote to get through the commons. Boris dare not boot anyone else out of the party, with such a fragile majority, so I’d expect the EU to carry on obstructing Brexit at every turn, deterimed to keep the cashflow going to Brussels long after we’ve supposedly left, or even ended the so-called “Transition Period” by this time next year - instead ending up in an “Everlasting Transition Period”, rather akin to “Remaining - without the label”. We’ll all be dead, the the EU goes on - that way. :frowning: :frowning:

Because Labour gained seats - Corbyn - isn’t going anywhere, with Momentum and their Anti-Semitic antics - are here to stay.
The minor parties - got crushed, with them taking the blame for the “Divisions” in society. The Libdems have had a pretty bad week this week… Next week - it’ll be the SNP’s turn for being busted, I suggest.

Since “Labour to win 300-309 seats” is currently priced at 66-1, I think I’ll have a tenner on that, along with the 290-299 range @ 40’s - just in case…

I cannot see in any shape or form how SNP, Libdems, Plaid, and Sinn Fein get to advance at this election.

I also think there is a Labour surge coming, as happened in the 2017 election, which I successfully predicted then of course. I hope I’m wrong, but the two week’s wages up for grabs - will soften the blow for me if I’m not.

I wouldn’t expect many people to agree with my outlook here, but I’d be interested to hear from any “optimistic Labour supporters” who might see where I’m coming from here… ?