This election is going to be about “Who’s lying when it comes to telling you that your vote will be wasted if you vote so-and-so…”
The Scots lost their referendum, but because there was a surge in SNP membership sign-ups after that “big lose” - We’re now told to expect 40-50 seats to swing from Labour to SNP at this coming election. Really?
Labour are only alarmed because the Tories have got naff-all to lose in Scotland apart from a single seat…
I believe this “Alarm” has been over-done. Northern England swing voters can’t vote SNP anyway, but they might surge towards labour on the anticipated weakness north of the border.
UKIP voters are negligable in the inner cities and north of the border. Nearly all UKIP gains are therefore likely to be in the shires, and other rural areas - rather than the anticipated “down south” counties. Farage stands a good chance of NOT getting his target seat of Thanet South.
Betfair puts the number of seats UKIP will win as only three…
http://www.betfairpredicts.com/
Betfair also predicts that there’s only a 13% chance of the Tories actually winning this election - ie with a proper majority, no matter how small.
Libdem voters in the stronghold west country seats are NOT expected to defect over the poor way the coalition handled the flood crisis last year.
I think this is rather complacent of them to expect to retain as many as 30 seats…
Labour swing voters in the south are disappointed with the same old candidates that they booted out in 2010 re-standing for election THIS time around.
No new brooms there to vote for I guess.
Conservative voters considering a vote for UKIP have been hammered about the apparent “folly” of this, and are now likely to not bother voting at all.
UKIP have not been seen much actually in the street. The abuse they get from the ukist public seems to have frightened them off from public gatherings.
This lacklustre campaign of theirs has even got me considering not bothering to turn up to vote myself. 
There seems to be a lot of verbal support for the Greens in Medway. Who’s the candidate though? Sure, we can look such things up on the web, but don’t we actually want to get our babies kissed etc by these prospective candidates of ANY party before considering voting for them?
Betfair have job-lotted the Greens in with “other”, so it’s hard to tell how many seats they think the Greens will win… With UKIP only expected to win a measly three, I’d say there’s everything to play for.
Off-bookmaker lay money
Here are the local predictions for the parties in question:
(1) Labour will gain a few net seats, but not enough to win a majority. The “extra seats” will come from not as many being lost to the SNP as expected - but politicians will say “Too many people voted for UKIP and handed their votes to Milliband” as they’ve banged on about before. UKIP’s vote is negligable north of the border, so this is clearly a load of ■■■■■■■■.
(2) The Libdems risk falling to single figures in retained seats terms. This represents a MASSIVE drubbing for them. 57 down to 8 is the current thinking…
(3) The Conservatives will keep nearly all their southern seats, albeit with greatly reduced majorities, eaten into by the UKIP swing. They won’t give a ■■■■ though. A 1000 majority is as good as a 10,000 majority in any area where Milliband hasn’t a prayer.
(4) UKIP will retain both Clacton & Strood, and gain one new seat - NOT thanet south, but a University town one…
(5) The Greens will lose Brighton & Hove, but may gain another riverside town (perhaps this one!) leaving them on level with last time - One seat nationally.
(6) Sinn Fein will lose their seats. The people are more united these days, whereas Sinn Fein’s divisiveness has not really achieved much new since the Good friday agreement, and they are not much respected for failing to attend Westminster.
(7) More “marginal seats” than expected - will actually NOT change hands in this coming election.
(8) Plaid Cymru take Cardigan off the Libdems for a net gain of one.
Conclusion:
The battleground will be in the Midlands.
5 years more of the same or worse. The people believed, were convinced to give it up, and now we’ll get the government we deserve - as always.
VAT won’t be increased after the election, but it’s scope will be widened.
Public services that are not used much by wealthy people will be cut to the bone.
Austerity will get a new fresh start.
Interest rates will dip, then and rise to 1% - but take the entire parliament to get there.
Over the next parliament, there will be at least one death per full-sized household related to an underfunded NHS, and bloated Pharmacutical interests being nurtured instead of crushed for the public good.
You’ll have more chance of being murdered by someone mentally ill than coming into enough money to pay off your mortgage.
More people than ever before will die of survivable cancers, despite there being hardly any nuclear power plants left to blame.
