muckles:
Winseer:
I don’t know exactly how many UKIPers from 2015 went over to Corbyn - but I estimate it would have to be between 1m and 2m in order for Corbyn to gain the 23 seats he did - when all the pundits were talking in terms of Labour losing between 50 and 100 seats when I put the bet on during the last week of April 2017. By the time the last week had come around, the odds on Labour winning 250-300 seats had dropped from 40-1 to 7/2.The daft notion was of Me as a UKIP supporter, voting Conservative in that election ?
So you a UKIP supporter voted Conservative, but you believe others who think like you voted Labour, although you have no evidence?
The “Evidence” is the market analysis, all-too-often seen as some kind of “Tea Leaf Reading Exercise”. As I’ve been trying to point out re the subject of “Risk Management” - if you are a gambling person like myself, then you are always looking for the angle - that Black Swan in particular that others have failed to see.
The best way to make large profits on anything and everything ranging from “betting” to “investing on the financial markets” - is to be CORRECT in some judgement or other, when as many other people are WRONG as possible. Predicting that Labour or the Tories are going to win the next election - won’t make you much money, even if you’re correct. Predicting that some current “no-hoper” might win the most seats though - is another matter entirely. You’ve got to be both “Correct” and “have as many people disagree with you” - which has the effect of bumping up the price/return on that investment you then make.Investing money on one’s “judgement” when actual hard evidence suggests a different outcome altogether - means:-
Going against the Mainstream
Refuting what the mainstream calls “Evidence”
Presenting what oneself considers ‘Evidence’, but the mainstream argue is merely “A delusion”
Sticking by one’s guns, and backing one’s judgement knowing that not just financial loss - but “Peer Ridicule” will also result from being “wrong” about any vented opinion one might have…
For most marginal seats it doesn’t take many votes to swing it one way or another, maybe Jeremy Corbyn braking the mould from the neo-liberal Labour and Conservative parties we’ve had for years, encouraged many old school Labour supporters out to vote, where as they’d not really bothered since the Blair days and those UKIP voters went, mostly back, to the Conservative party they’d always supported, now the referendum was done.
You don’t make money betting on the outcome of “Marginal seats”.
You make money - successfully predicting a big scalp falling, previously considered to be “safe”.
Eg. I won’t be betting on Anna Soubry or Amber Rudd to lose their seats, as the price for such an outcome - is odds-on favorite already. NO money to be made there, nothing to see - jog on.
I AM considering bets on Boris Johnson, Theresa May, and Vince Cable to lose their seats though! ONLY if I can get big odds though. The value MUST be there to create the betting set-up that I’m awaiting and looking for. When I placed the bet on Corbyn’s Labour to win between 250-299 seats - it was when the mainstream were predicting he’d be LOSING 50-100 seats. Thus “losing seats” was the expected result, and anything involving Labour “gaining ground” was decent odds-against… I didn’t bet @ 100-1 odds that Labour would win an outright majority though, as UKIP just wouldn’t be giving Corbyn a big enough push, if only half of migrating UKIP voters from 2015 - ended up voting Labour in the 2017 election. My “evidence” therefore was a personal belief that “my judgement was correct”. If Corbyn had appealed to former Tory, Libdem, and other party voters - then we would have seen say, the Libdems lose ground from 9 seats, the Tories lose more than 40 seats rather than the handful they actually lost, and of course UKIP hardly losing any at all - when they in fact, lost nearly 3.5 MILLION votes. Thus, I concluded that those migrating UKIP voters MUST to some extent - have migrated to Corbyn’s Labour. The reason they did thus - isn’t important… Just that they looked like they did in the end, nonetheless.
“Risk Management” and “Market Analysis”. I’ve been chasing “Black Swans” my entire adult life, mind you. I do so - because as I said earlier, I do NOT consider myself to be a lucky person.
I could flip a coin ten times, and get it wrong 7 or 8 times out of 10…
I therefore avoid “coin-flip” scenarios, and go for set-ups where it doesn’t MATTER if I’m wrong 7-8 times out of ten, or even 96 times out of 100!!! PROVIDING the return on the 4 situations “I got correct” - is over 25-1, which returns me a profit overall. If I back 100 events, lose on 96 of them, and win 25-1, 33-1, 40-1, and 50-1 on the 4 that I DID get correct - then guess what? My overall return (ROI) is 152% of my original investment… Do the math!
If I could pull strokes like that on the Stock market - I’d be offered a job as a currency dealer, “local trader” on the exchanges, or something like that - wouldn’t I?
As it happens, I’ve given both derivative and currency trading a shot, and could not overcome my “getting it wrong 75% of the time on 50/50 set-ups” handicap that I’ve always had…
The big-odds set-ups on the financial markets - are few and far between.
My CURRENT analysis of the Pound - suggests that Geroge Soros’ large short position in Sterling - might now be being unwound, perhaps because he’s actually deceased, and his brokers don’t want to be taken to the cleaners with his position - because if his death with such a huge short position in US stock market futures, UK Pound Sterling, and Long position in Gold - then the price would lash back the opposite way, and his brokers would get killed trying to exit a position running against them should he be “out of the picture”, either by being medically incapitated, or just plain dead!
Thus, my “Market Analysis” suggests to me - and ONLY me for the time being - that Soros actually died sometime around Christmas Eve 2018, and his death has been kept quiet - until his brokers finish unwinding his position, and disbursing all other financial liabilities related to his rampant speculation against entire countries around the world…
Only time will tell - if I’m correct of course… But the pound keeps having legs higher on days when there “isn’t much positive news for the pound about” - to cause such moves…
If Brexit fails, and our government falls - that would normally cause the pound to COLLAPSE rather than “Rally”, despite mainstream pudits suggesting that “Brexit being Done” and the “Pound recovering” - are inversely proportional to each other, which happens to BE the current mainstream thinking on the subject of “Where the future pound exchange rate is going”…
Check this chart out: It is the Euro-Pound exchange rate, showing how many Pounds you get to One Euro.
This chart is nudging lower and lower over recent weeks - showing that the Euro is DROPPING against the Pound. What way do you think it would go if Brexit is either Completed or Cancelled outright?
It doesn’t make sense for the Pound to strengthen ahead of Brexit - unless someone is trying to extricate themselves from an over-committed position the other way in the market!
I believe George Soros is deceased then. 
Until I’m proven “Right or Wrong” by him actually turning up on a live news programme, talking about stuff that has happened this week, rather than generic stuff that could have happened months ago on recorded news articles - I’m going to carry on thinking that the pound still has some upside left to it THIS side of Brexit being completed… 
“A conspiracy theory is very tradable. Once you’re proven correct, you sell out at a massive profit to all those who didn’t believe you, and they have to pay through the nose to buy you out”.
“Buy the Rumour, and Sell the News when it becomes Fact”.
