The next recession? when will it be?

OwenMoney:
But But But ……….Boris said there will be sunny uplands , rainbows , unicorns and crumpets for tea after Brexit - Did he lie ?

What is certain is that staying tied to a massive net EU contribution for the privilege of an equally massive trade deficit, to keep Germany rich at our expense won’t fix it.

As for Bozo he’s a Remainer like May and most/all of his cabinet.

cav551:
The next recession? The one which started in around 1980 hasn’t finished yet.

A bit before that cav.When we had to go begging to the IMF to maintain our net EU contribution and increasing import bill.While we also effectively gave away our oil and gas resources to buy stuff we could make for ourselves.

Franglais:
Busts can be triggered by overheating of economies. A politician throwing too much money into the system too quickly in an unsustainable boom…
.
Sound likely?
Someone chasing popularity, getting rid of more cautious expert advisers or colleagues?

It’s so much better to keep the Brits poor so the Germans can stay rich.

Conor:

CookieMonster:
Can we not get out of this recession first before we start planning for another one?

What recession? We’ve had one, if not the longest periods of growth in our nation’s history.

Well if you go by the strict definition of economic growth no doubt you are correct, but look closer at the GDP growth figures since 2010 and the real wage figures and you’ll soon see why many people don’t feel things have got better since the Financial Crash, its hardly been full steam ahead, in fact some quarters we’ve gone backwards, just not 2 in a row so that technically means the country didn’t go into recession.

This world will never be free as long as Usury is the primary financial tool of geo-political manipulation.The financial system we are enslaved to pays off debt with even more debt.We are all sheep being fleeced by the Federal Reserve shears.We need an end to Usury and the Fed.A satanic construct. :smiling_imp:

manalishi:
This world will never be free as long as Usury is the primary financial tool of geo-political manipulation.The financial system we are enslaved to pays off debt with even more debt.We are all sheep being fleeced by the Federal Reserve shears.We need an end to Usury and the Fed.A satanic construct. :smiling_imp:

I had that very same conversation with the people I am doing business with in the US at the moment and it has been engineered by the education system to become worse and more controlling in the years to come…Just look at what Obama did to the Maths learning system in the USA, Texas opted out and couple of other states, but it is truly horrifying to be a parent of school age children in the US right now…I met with accountants today who told me what has happened, so not hearsay, but actual experience and totally scary where it is all going for the people of the US.

Tude:

manalishi:
This world will never be free as long as Usury is the primary financial tool of geo-political manipulation.The financial system we are enslaved to pays off debt with even more debt.We are all sheep being fleeced by the Federal Reserve shears.We need an end to Usury and the Fed.A satanic construct. :smiling_imp:

I had that very same conversation with the people I am doing business with in the US at the moment and it has been engineered by the education system to become worse and more controlling in the years to come…Just look at what Obama did to the Maths learning system in the USA, Texas opted out and couple of other states, but it is truly horrifying to be a parent of school age children in the US right now…I met with accountants today who told me what has happened, so not hearsay, but actual experience and totally scary where it is all going for the people of the US.

Yep Yanks,the finest of folk presided over by the most war-mongering sons of satan this planets ever known.Right back to both Roosevelts,Wilson,Truman et al,the good ones tended to meet premature ends,Jackson,Garfield,JFK.The rise of JD Rockefeller,JP Morgan and Warburg and other jeckyl island jackals signed Americas death warrant circa 1923,essentially a Khazarian Mafia hijack project that’s infected usa and the wider world ever since. :unamused:

The next recession will start in March…if the transport projections being given to the container hauliers by the shipping lines are to be believed. Because of Corona Virus in China. Over 20 container ships have already been cancelled. China now accounts for 17% of world GDP, at the time of the SARS outbreak it was 3%.

The next recession will follow any large company that goes under for NOT being “Brexit Ready” from this point…

Watch this space: I reckon we’re going to be showered with new manufacturing plants b efore long - looking at Boris and the so-called “Singapore Tax Haven” option we seem to have coming this Christmas…

plus ça change

HSBC has said it will axe around 35,000 jobs as it announced profits for 2019 fell by about a third.

Average weekly wages in the UK have reached their highest levels since before the financial crisis. Weekly pay reached £512 in the three months to December, which - adjusting for inflation - is the highest since March 2008.

Excluding bonuses, earnings grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the three-month period, official figures show.

Employment rose by 180,000 to another record high of 32.93 million, while unemployment stayed at 1.29 million.

The figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the number of women in employment increased again - this time by 150,000 in the three months to December to a record high of 15.61 million.

Santa:
plus ça change

HSBC has said it will axe around 35,000 jobs as it announced profits for 2019 fell by about a third.

I think that Globally over the next 3 years, it follows a trend in the Financial sector, far more automation being used in the stock market as well, cheaper than a stockbroker, but not sure how many Porsche’s they buy. :smiley:

Santa:

Average weekly wages in the UK have reached their highest levels since before the financial crisis. Weekly pay reached £512 in the three months to December, which - adjusting for inflation - is the highest since March 2008.

Excluding bonuses, earnings grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the three-month period, official figures show.

Employment rose by 180,000 to another record high of 32.93 million, while unemployment stayed at 1.29 million.

The figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the number of women in employment increased again - this time by 150,000 in the three months to December to a record high of 15.61 million.

Basically in real terms on average we’re 65p better off a week than before the Financial crash, I’m going to blow it on a Mars bar. :neutral_face:
also

its interesting to read the replies-i posted the question because i knew id get real world opinions. i mean i cant think of anywhere better than asking a bunch of on the roaders / or even ONCE on the roaders - what they feel/sense . you get my meaning.
The gist seems to be its not imminent [recession] ,i myself had sensed it not yet coming,maybe in 3 or 4 yrs time ,but not right now . Cheers guys/gals

The next move in interest rates - is likely to be LOWER. It won’t be mentioned in advance much though, as if you knew that rates were still on the decline, - you might decide to NOT get that fixed rate mortgage - after all.

Gold hit $1600 today, and is looking to make further gains. Цена на золото сегодня | Онлайн график цен на золото за USD и RUB
The USD is also approaching 100% of it’s former glory in value.

In the past, gold used to be strong when the USD was weak. Now that both are hitting the highs together - it has to be said that we’re ALL living in Trumpland now - like it or not.

The symptoms of this - would be “full employment, but stagnating wages” though - not good for us ordinary folk looking for a post-Brexit inflationary boom in wages huh?

The effect worldwide on CHINA being taken out of the competion in “out-producing everything” - will actually HELP those western governments in their quest for infrastructure building, of course.
There’s never been a better time to negotiate contracts with large foreign firms “having a bit of bother at home” lets say…

Even Oil isn’t rising much to spoil any forthcoming boom, choking economic recovery off like it ususally does.

I have a funny feeling that Oil is already obsolete in the world, due to new science discoveries - BUT OPEC nations want to “manage the decline” - and sell off what they’ve got left, because they KNOW it is going out of fashion… Notice that any upward spikes in the oil price for ANY reason - soon coming crashing back down again, for instance…
“Bother in the Middle East” - just doesn’t cut it any more, it seems…

A boom involving cheap raw material prices - is something we’ve not really had in the world since the Victorian Golden Age 1850-1870, during which time America was on it’s knees with a civil war, of course…
Not THIS time. Nor will we have another rise of a EuroNutcase because our own Empire back at home is in terminal decline…

I predict the English-speaking world - is about to have a renassaince at long last…

There’s nothing “Progressive” about today’s outgoing “Progressive Policies” such as “Belief” in “Man Made” climate change - BUT there’s plenty of work to be had if one enters a business that involvings building KIT to avoid the effects of NATURAL climate change!

We don’t need “Less Gweenhouth Gathes” - we need more factories building flood defence kit - for everyone, as natural climate change - is coming to a bursting river bank near YOU if you continue to bury your collective heads in the sand, and pretend it can’t happen to you, because you drive a hybrid vehicle, and sort your rubbish… :unamused: :unamused:

An American called CHOMSKY talked about the economy I did not understand all he said but I think he is right.In 2007 new house cost …£140000 they were, adverts £ 100 down and move in I thought this can not go on .I got rid of all the cling ons ect went cash only and yes I cashed in endowment scrabbled all money paid house off best thing I ever did.

fuse:
An American called CHOMSKY talked about the economy I did not understand all he said but I think he is right.In 2007 new house cost …£140000 they were, adverts £ 100 down and move in I thought this can not go on .I got rid of all the cling ons ect went cash only and yes I cashed in endowment scrabbled all money paid house off best thing I ever did.

A very well informed and educated individual and some of his forecasts can be correct, I just hope his latest projections regarding humanity are incorrect.

…As and when the next interest rate cut comes along, it will become apparent to both business and home owners that “life is afforable - IF you invest”.

No more “sitting on one’s hands”.

Normally, that would spell the end rather than the beginning of a recession but - there’s a lot of people out there who are set in their ways, and would rather go broke slowly, than get off their arses, and actually change their lifestyles outright for the new incoming era.

We had a similar experience back on the Atomic/Post Industrial boundary at the end of the 70’s, again at the end of the recession in the 90’s when high interest rates choking off every book we had - were finally ended by Brown, let’s give him credit for that at least. In fact, Labour were running well - until yet another Oil Scare choked off the yellow brick road of “jam tomorrow” promises following 9/11…

Then there’s those firms who promise “jam tomorrow” NOW, “once the current downturn ends”… It never will by their definition of course. The only thing ending are Liberal workplaces, laid-back work culture, decent four day contracts, and inflation-busting pay rises. :frowning: