Brexit stock piling

OUT OF HOURS BULLY'S TRUCKSTOP BAR (INTERACTIVE)
21

muckles:

Winseer:

muckles:

Winseer:
Has anyone explained yet - WHY exactly a “No Deal Brexit” as opposed to any other kind of Brexit - is so bad

Maybe because we’ve spent decades building up systems to trade freely with 27 other nations and businesses have built their operations to use those systems, then overnight its all gone, without time to build, test and introduce the new trading systems that will replace it, or introduce the infrastructure and personnel to deal with the new system.

Many busineses across the EU rely on goods travelling unhindered between countries and even WTO rules would involve customs and paperwork, if WTO was as simple as some make out, why do so many countries spend so much time and effort trying to get free trade agreements.

If you listen to business leaders, it’s not so much Brexit that’s their problem, but the uncertainty its created, although many would prefer to stay in the EU as they’d carry on as before, but then business, Parliament the EU operating “as before” is the problem for many and in my opinion the reason so many across Europe and other countries are looking to protest against that system in any way they can, however unpalatable that may be for some.

Yes, it will be painful for both sides to go through the “upheaval” of changing the system.
We go through a similar upheaval - every time we get a sea change in Government. Life after the 2010 general election for example - got pretty bad pretty quickly for a lot of people who pay the taxes… .

Considering the Governments for the last 30+ years have followed pretty much the same economic agenda, that includes Blair’s “New Labour” which was basically another centrist party pandering to the global financial system, it’s hardly an upheaval, and much of what happen after the 2010 election was due to a massive global fincial crisis, not just UK government policy, except for the continuing policy of a Laissez-faire attitude to the global financiers.

Winseer:
Are we really going to have Lefties slashing their wrists (or our tyres…?) when they get their arses well and truly kicked at the next election?
Around 2-3m UKIP voters from 2015 likely backed Corbyn in 2017 for a bit of a lark… Now Corbyn thinks he’s popular, when in fact all those UKIP voters have done - is present a jumps course that has only matchbox-sized fences on it, rather than something more akin to Aintree… .

What evidence have you that UKIP supporters voted in their droves for Labour and Corbyn? From the UKIP supporters I know, I should think most of them would eat their own [zb] before voting for Corbyn
I put a tenner on at 40-1 that Corbyn would win between 250 and 300 seats thanks to the very notion that “Some UKIP voters, probably over a million of them - will back Corbyn on June 8th 2017” - to give Theresa May a bloody nose, if nothing else. They might have perceived that to “Give May a majority she wanted” - could easily be twisted into an excuse for May to “drop Brexit”, because she is too far ahead (having her anticipated ‘thumping majority’) to lose… “Migrating UKIP voters” - decided otherwise.

Winseer:
In the meantime, it is hard for small to medium businesses to compete with the big boys, who have this large investment in “EU infrastructure appeasement” if you will.

Yes the whole global trading system is rigged for the big boys, that includes Countries and businesses.

Winseer:
Ceasing trading with someone nearby, and commencing trading with someone much further away - even for double the profits - requires people to pull their finger out and actually do some WORK in the administration business of re-routing all our trade routes to circumvent the single market outright, ideally…

Back home meanwhile - if you take away a minus - you get a PLUS on our balance of Trade. This pays down the deficit a lot faster than any “Tory Cuts”.

I see Brexit as an alternative way to get the country’s books rebalanced. :bulb:

It’s okay looking for new markets, but they’re not going to be there on 30th March, it will take some time and why in the meantime mess up how to trade with countries which we have well established trade links and that are close and easy to get goods to?

We need to build a lot more trading infrastructure. I believe that transport hubs are being built up and down the country as we speak, and this directly affects us as drivers in the very near future. Milton Keyes - looks most impressive as you drive past the MP1-MP3 sites whilst driving along the M1…

22

Winseer:
I put a tenner on at 40-1 that Corbyn would win between 250 and 300 seats thanks to the very notion that “Some UKIP voters, probably over a million of them - will back Corbyn on June 8th 2017” - to give Theresa May a bloody nose, if nothing else. They might have perceived that to “Give May a majority she wanted” - could easily be twisted into an excuse for May to “drop Brexit”, because she is too far ahead (having her anticipated ‘thumping majority’) to lose… “Migrating UKIP voters” - decided otherwise.

So you were wrong about that then!
You beleived it would have taken 1m UKIP voters to defect, so as Labour didn’t get a landslide, by your reckoning less than a million UKIP voters went to Labour.

23

Winseer:
Chaimberlain, to his credit - did what was required of him, declaring war on Germany for making a fool of him over the “Peace in our Time” bit of paper. He didn’t ask the rest of Europe for permission to act thus, nor enter into any negotiations with Hitler, having realized in time that the prior policy of “appeasement” - had failed miserably.

It all makes far more sense when you realise that the Spitfire and King George V class Battleships were all under construction on Chamberlain’s watch both as Chancellor and PM.

The only fool being Hitler in believing Chamberlain’s brilliant almost over the top piece of subterfuge in waving that piece of paper which Chamberlain knew even then,like the accompanying statement,was total bs because it had to be to work.

Make no mistake,like Mitchell,Chamberlain was a patriot at least of the class of Powell if not better and without them this country would have ceased to exist by 1939.Unlike all the rest of that stinking Party to date including Federalist and USE instigator Churchill.

24

muckles:

Winseer:
I put a tenner on at 40-1 that Corbyn would win between 250 and 300 seats thanks to the very notion that “Some UKIP voters, probably over a million of them - will back Corbyn on June 8th 2017” - to give Theresa May a bloody nose, if nothing else. They might have perceived that to “Give May a majority she wanted” - could easily be twisted into an excuse for May to “drop Brexit”, because she is too far ahead (having her anticipated ‘thumping majority’) to lose… “Migrating UKIP voters” - decided otherwise.

So you were wrong about that then!
You beleived it would have taken 1m UKIP voters to defect, so as Labour didn’t get a landslide, by your reckoning less than a million UKIP voters went to Labour.

The wheels are starting to come off the Labour bandwagon with 7 MPs leaving the party today, even with this poor conservative government they are still behind in the polls

25

muckles:

Winseer:
I put a tenner on at 40-1 that Corbyn would win between 250 and 300 seats thanks to the very notion that “Some UKIP voters, probably over a million of them - will back Corbyn on June 8th 2017” - to give Theresa May a bloody nose, if nothing else. They might have perceived that to “Give May a majority she wanted” - could easily be twisted into an excuse for May to “drop Brexit”, because she is too far ahead (having her anticipated ‘thumping majority’) to lose… “Migrating UKIP voters” - decided otherwise.

So you were wrong about that then!
You beleived it would have taken 1m UKIP voters to defect, so as Labour didn’t get a landslide, by your reckoning less than a million UKIP voters went to Labour.

Labour won 262 seats and I had a return of £410 on that bet.

I don’t know exactly how many UKIPers from 2015 went over to Corbyn - but I estimate it would have to be between 1m and 2m in order for Corbyn to gain the 23 seats he did - when all the pundits were talking in terms of Labour losing between 50 and 100 seats when I put the bet on during the last week of April 2017. By the time the last week had come around, the odds on Labour winning 250-300 seats had dropped from 40-1 to 7/2.

The daft notion was of Me as a UKIP supporter, voting Conservative in that election - but betting on Labour to win a few quid.
I also had some side bets on UKIP to win ANY seats (which lost) and the Libdems to make a recovery to 30 seats (which also lost) - also at very big odds of course.

I’ll bet the big odds - if I think the chances of me getting there is considerably better than the odds suggest at the time I make the bet.

Right now, “Brexit delivered on-time March 29th” - is 4/1 against. BUT I won’t be betting that, as it is still too short to interest me.
Likewise, I didn’t have a bet on Cameron @ 12-1 to win a majority in the 2015 election neither.
As a general rule, I don’t back anything under 20-1, although my missus sometimes picks another selection with prices between 10-1 and 18-1, and if it is horses - we’ll stick a reverse forecast bet about the two as well for good measure. Cheap bets with potential big returns - for minimum outlay. It is the only way some unlucky sod like me can occasionally cash in to being correct in my own judgement.

What have I got for the near future politics-wise?

“The Euro to drop to $1.08 to the dollar on the forex market by the end of the financial year” - is currently 100-1 against.
If it falls further than just to $1.08 - you get 2x 3x 4x etc for each extra cent below $1.08, thus a fall to say, $1.05 would attract 400-1 odds rather than 100-1 which is for falling “one cent below the $1.09 strike price” of the option in question.

The only fly in the ointment in such currency speculation - is that you cannot do it for the odd fiver or tenner like you can a sports or political bet in the bookmakers…

In terms of “everyday bets on political stuff anyone can do for a fiver as a bit of a fun flutter”
… I would suggest a punt on Andrea Leadsom to become the next PM. She’s available at 33-1 in places according to oddschecker website…
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

I’ve already got small bets on Her, Moggs, and even Graham Brady to be the next PM when May finally goes… There’s no point wasting money on Corbyn - as he is currently the 9/2 favourite to be the next PM - Go figure!

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Winseer:
I don’t know exactly how many UKIPers from 2015 went over to Corbyn - but I estimate it would have to be between 1m and 2m in order for Corbyn to gain the 23 seats he did - when all the pundits were talking in terms of Labour losing between 50 and 100 seats when I put the bet on during the last week of April 2017. By the time the last week had come around, the odds on Labour winning 250-300 seats had dropped from 40-1 to 7/2.

The daft notion was of Me as a UKIP supporter, voting Conservative in that election ?

So you a UKIP supporter voted Conservative, but you believe others who think like you voted Labour, although you have no evidence?

For most marginal seats it doesn’t take many votes to swing it one way or another, maybe Jeremy Corbyn braking the mould from the neo-liberal Labour and Conservative parties we’ve had for years, encouraged many old school Labour supporters out to vote, where as they’d not really bothered since the Blair days and those UKIP voters went, mostly back, to the Conservative party they’d always supported, now the referendum was done.

27

muckles:

Winseer:
I don’t know exactly how many UKIPers from 2015 went over to Corbyn - but I estimate it would have to be between 1m and 2m in order for Corbyn to gain the 23 seats he did - when all the pundits were talking in terms of Labour losing between 50 and 100 seats when I put the bet on during the last week of April 2017. By the time the last week had come around, the odds on Labour winning 250-300 seats had dropped from 40-1 to 7/2.

The daft notion was of Me as a UKIP supporter, voting Conservative in that election ?

So you a UKIP supporter voted Conservative, but you believe others who think like you voted Labour, although you have no evidence?
Sorry bud, I’ve long since spent the evidence which was the win. “Being correct” about pretty much anything at all - has a pretty short shelf-life. I’ll attempt to cash in whilst I can, but what is a good idea one week - can be a badly-timed disaster the next. This does NOT apply to my thoughts on Brexit however.

For most marginal seats it doesn’t take many votes to swing it one way or another, maybe Jeremy Corbyn braking the mould from the neo-liberal Labour and Conservative parties we’ve had for years, encouraged many old school Labour supporters out to vote, where as they’d not really bothered since the Blair days and those UKIP voters went, mostly back, to the Conservative party they’d always supported, now the referendum was done.

I might have ended up moving from UKIP to Tory in 2017, but I bought into the fear-story (which I regret) that “A vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour” - when in fact, the disliked Tory who’s MP in my ward - wasn’t actually in any danger at all. I might as well have wiped my arse on my ballot paper. :blush:

Elections tend to have pundits looking at “marginals” rather than comfortable majorities that can be turned over.
However, the incidents where a marginal becomes a safe seat are on the increase, whilst marginals that become safe seats “the opposite way” - don’t seem to happen anywhere near as much.
It is almost as if there is a “low water mark” for the support that an MP might expect to get.
My own MP is a good example of this rare exception here: The Number one marginal in the country in the 2010 election, a Labour candidate flipped to Conservative - and won the seat, and have maintained it with a large majority ever since.

Most seats that “flip” , tend to “flip back” at the following election, and thus I reckon it is a mistake to target only marginals, when a better stragegy in my mind for the next election - would be to target Remainer MPs in Brexit-voting seats, and vice versa. The “crossover” seats would be Anna Soubry and Amber Rudd who have the unenviable status of both being Remainers in Brexit-voting wards. I won’t be betting on either of those two keeping their seats at the next election, regardless of Brexit being done by that point or not.

The next election, one way or the other - won’t be like ANY election we’ve had in the past.
Social Media - has well and truly broken the mould to “Voter Tactics” now, and even grandees like Boris Johnson - stand to lose their seats if I am correct, because of “Flying Voters” across the constituency boundary, as organized by none other than McDonnell, who’s ward borders that of Boris Johnson. He’d be one of many scalps to be taken by the opposition at the next election, whilst UKIP end up taking a lot of former Labour safe seats, I’d suggest. Labour supporters who voted for Blair in all three elections involving him - but deserted Gordon Brown in 2010 - are likely to stay away in droves as well of course.

I return to a theory I’ve had for a while - that if Brexit is cocked-up at the 11th hour, then the next parliament might well be a six-way split (six parties with 50-100 seats apiece) with the next govenrment ending up being a coalition of the four SMALLEST, thus shutting out whatever party gets the most seats, but never gets to win a place in Government. That those two parties could end up being UKIP and the SNP if we’re not careful…

28

BREXIT.

As a retired driver of the 70 to 90s doing mostly continental & M/E work, Does Brexit mean that we now get to control whom gets the overseas work. Will Dover again get mostly UK wagons going through■■?.
.
We all know the freight forwarders like the eastern bloc companies, I wonder why!!! Cost. They do not give a s–t about cabotage. Polish wagon taking a load to Spain, not legal, but cheaper than GB wagon.
.
Shall the GB companies wagons again get the proper rate as no deal Brexit commeth.
.
I do hope so. The less EU wagons in the UK the better.

29

PASTTRUCKING:
.
We all know the freight forwarders like the eastern bloc companies, I wonder why!!! Cost. They do not give a s–t about cabotage. Polish wagon taking a load to Spain, not legal, but cheaper than GB wagon.

Not so, a Polish vehicle taking a load from the UK to Spain is perfectly legal. A Polish vehicle can legally run back and forward between the UK and Spain indefinitely.

Cabotage is a movement where the goods are both loaded and unloaded within the borders of the same third party country. And even then, it is permissible for a Polish-registered vehicle to perform three such movements before having to leave that country.

30

Sorry, double post

31

Harry Monk:

PASTTRUCKING:
.
We all know the freight forwarders like the eastern bloc companies, I wonder why!!! Cost. They do not give a s–t about cabotage. Polish wagon taking a load to Spain, not legal, but cheaper than GB wagon.

Not so, a Polish vehicle taking a load from the UK to Spain is perfectly legal. A Polish vehicle can legally run back and forward between the UK and Spain indefinitely.

Cabotage is a movement where the goods are both loaded and unloaded within the borders of the same third party country. And even then, it is permissible for a Polish-registered vehicle to perform three such movements before having to leave that country.

Yes. Moreover it must be done in max of 7 days.
If the foreign reg truck enters the country empty, it’s limited to 1 cabotage movement in 3 days.

32

Franglais:

Harry Monk:

PASTTRUCKING:
.
We all know the freight forwarders like the eastern bloc companies, I wonder why!!! Cost. They do not give a s–t about cabotage. Polish wagon taking a load to Spain, not legal, but cheaper than GB wagon.

Not so, a Polish vehicle taking a load from the UK to Spain is perfectly legal. A Polish vehicle can legally run back and forward between the UK and Spain indefinitely.

Cabotage is a movement where the goods are both loaded and unloaded within the borders of the same third party country. And even then, it is permissible for a Polish-registered vehicle to perform three such movements before having to leave that country.

Yes. Moreover it must be done in max of 7 days.
If the foreign reg truck enters the country empty, it’s limited to 1 cabotage movement in 3 days.

I’ve made the argument elsewhere that third country operations ‘should’ be considered as a ‘form’ of cabotage in just the same way that a Mexican truck isn’t allowed in the real world to haul a load originating in US destined for Canada or vice versa.Which would obviously smash much of the Canadian road transport industry.

33

Carryfast:
… I’ve made the argument elsewhere that third country operations ‘should’ be considered as a ‘form’ of cabotage …

IIRC, you made a completely unsustainable argument about definitions you’d completely misunderstood, which you then went on to lose spectacularly. :wink:

Using any dictionary of your choice, you will see that “cabotage” and “third country” work are two completely different concepts, which need different kinds of permits. End of.

Here’s your challenge…

Since you appear to be the only person spouting this complete tosh (other words are available,) then post a credible link (emphasis on the word “credible” :wink: ) that supports your contention and I’ll happily be educated.

:bulb: Links to The Jack, Jill and Carryfast haulage dictionary and The Ladybird book of Carryfastism don’t count!!

34

dieseldave:

Carryfast:
… I’ve made the argument elsewhere that third country operations ‘should’ be considered as a ‘form’ of cabotage …

IIRC, you made a completely unsustainable argument about definitions you’d completely misunderstood, which you then went on to lose spectacularly. :wink:

Using any dictionary of your choice, you will see that “cabotage” and “third country” work are two completely different concepts, which need different kinds of permits. End of.

Here’s your challenge…

Since you appear to be the only person spouting this complete tosh (other words are available,) then post a credible link (emphasis on the word “credible” :wink: ) that supports your contention and I’ll happily be educated.

:bulb: Links to The Jack, Jill and Carryfast haulage dictionary and The Ladybird book of Carryfastism don’t count!!

I’d better get rid of THIS fine tome that I got for 2’6 when the Internet was two tin cans and a bit of string…

Ladybird Book1.jpg
Ladybird Book1.jpg600×906 101 KB

35

Harry Monk:

PASTTRUCKING:
.
We all know the freight forwarders like the eastern bloc companies, I wonder why!!! Cost. They do not give a s–t about cabotage. Polish wagon taking a load to Spain, not legal, but cheaper than GB wagon.

Not so, a Polish vehicle taking a load from the UK to Spain is perfectly legal. A Polish vehicle can legally run back and forward between the UK and Spain indefinitely.

Cabotage is a movement where the goods are both loaded and unloaded within the borders of the same third party country. And even then, it is permissible for a Polish-registered vehicle to perform three such movements before having to leave that country.

Thanks Harry for the update, Apologies for the incorrect submission.

36

Franglais:

Harry Monk:

PASTTRUCKING:
.
We all know the freight forwarders like the eastern bloc companies, I wonder why!!! Cost. They do not give a s–t about cabotage. Polish wagon taking a load to Spain, not legal, but cheaper than GB wagon.

Not so, a Polish vehicle taking a load from the UK to Spain is perfectly legal. A Polish vehicle can legally run back and forward between the UK and Spain indefinitely.

Cabotage is a movement where the goods are both loaded and unloaded within the borders of the same third party country. And even then, it is permissible for a Polish-registered vehicle to perform three such movements before having to leave that country.

Yes. Moreover it must be done in max of 7 days.
If the foreign reg truck enters the country empty, it’s limited to 1 cabotage movement in 3 days.

Serious question, from a cabotage point of view is the UK one country or is it England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland all sperate countries? Doesn’t affect me but am just curious

37

kcrussell25:

Franglais:

Harry Monk:

PASTTRUCKING:
.
We all know the freight forwarders like the eastern bloc companies, I wonder why!!! Cost. They do not give a s–t about cabotage. Polish wagon taking a load to Spain, not legal, but cheaper than GB wagon.

Not so, a Polish vehicle taking a load from the UK to Spain is perfectly legal. A Polish vehicle can legally run back and forward between the UK and Spain indefinitely.

Cabotage is a movement where the goods are both loaded and unloaded within the borders of the same third party country. And even then, it is permissible for a Polish-registered vehicle to perform three such movements before having to leave that country.

Yes. Moreover it must be done in max of 7 days.
If the foreign reg truck enters the country empty, it’s limited to 1 cabotage movement in 3 days.

Serious question, from a cabotage point of view is the UK one country or is it England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland all sperate countries? Doesn’t affect me but am just curious

All one country, under the same customs regs.

Sent from my SM-G361F using Tapatalk

38

Thanks

39

dieseldave:

Carryfast:
… I’ve made the argument elsewhere that third country operations ‘should’ be considered as a form of cabotage …

IIRC, you made a completely unsustainable argument about definitions you’d completely misunderstood, which you then went on to lose spectacularly. :wink:

Using any dictionary of your choice, you will see that “cabotage” and “third country” work are two completely different concepts, which need different kinds of permits. End of.

Here’s your challenge…

Since you appear to be the only person spouting this complete tosh (other words are available,) then post a credible link (emphasis on the word “credible” :wink: ) that supports your contention and I’ll happily be educated.

:confused:

‘Should’ indicating a desirable or expected state.

‘Form’ a type or variety of something.

Which is probably why there doesn’t seem to be any Mexican trucks moving loads between the US and Canada.

40

Carryfast:

dieseldave:

Carryfast:
… I’ve made the argument elsewhere that third country operations ‘should’ be considered as a form of cabotage …

IIRC, you made a completely unsustainable argument about definitions you’d completely misunderstood, which you then went on to lose spectacularly. :wink:

Using any dictionary of your choice, you will see that “cabotage” and “third country” work are two completely different concepts, which need different kinds of permits. End of.

Here’s your challenge…

Since you appear to be the only person spouting this complete tosh (other words are available,) then post a credible link (emphasis on the word “credible” :wink: ) that supports your contention and I’ll happily be educated.

:confused:

‘Should’ indicating a desirable or expected state.

‘Form’ a type or variety of something.

Now then Carryfast…

yet again :laughing: :unamused:

I’m not seeing a clamour for this, so I have to enquire… Desired or expected by whom?

BTW, what you’re saying in this topic is quite different to what you said in the other topic, which I now submit (since this is Bully’s) for the general mirth and amusement of those with some time on their hands to decide for themselves:

I’m glad that the tosh you posted got quoted, because folks can now see for themselves how you move the goalposts, slide irrelevant stuff in, and then turn a topic into a lesson in random off-topic waffle based pedantry (AKA Carryfastism,) and all whilst the evidence (arguably :wink:) points to you completely failing to understand the actual question at issue.

:bulb: More power to you though Carryfast, but only because you’re providing an invaluable source of entertaining escapism from real life. :smiley: