Autonomy Again

Rjan:
In the 1940s when cryptography problems were first tackled by computers

Ironically the German idea of encoding communications using over complicated bollox like the enigma machine and Bletchley then busting it all using even more over complicated stuff like Collossus shows the stupidity of the nerds.In which just like driving humans easily had the upper hand over any computer.In this case by just talking total garbage but which means something to the receiver as used in the D Day resistance transmissions.So maybe Dr Damon can explain how a computer would have decoded ‘‘Jean has a Long Mustache’’ or ‘‘There Is a Fire at the Insurance Agency’’ :laughing: IE garbage in garbage out.But which to a human who understood the meaning was anything but garbage.Luckily for us the German Navy having been too stupid to realise it and use the same method instead of mathematically crackable codes.The fact is the human brain and the body it’s connected to is superior to computers whether talking in code or driving or flying a plane. :bulb: :wink:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_Lond … d_messages

malcolmgbell:
And is that machine, or an improved version, now doing surgical procedures alone, un aided and unsupervised? for some one who went to University your so full of [zb]

Your going to have to explain your insult here as it has gone above my head. Full of ■■■■ in what way?

UKtramp:

malcolmgbell:
And is that machine, or an improved version, now doing surgical procedures alone, un aided and unsupervised? for some one who went to University your so full of [zb]

Your going to have to explain your insult here as it has gone above my head. Full of [zb] in what way?

But who is the boy wonder insulting? He is equally inept at using the really simple quote function of this site as he is at being coherent.

And apropos, you have overlooked my query regards the autonomous surgical device.

Rjan:
How many billions of our tax money does the British state alone have to pour down the drain, never mind what the private sector pours down the drain and we never get to hear about from the right-wing press, to make people learn the lesson that the learning curve involved in computerisation is incredibly steep?

I have a different perspective on it. The key to computerisation is the ability to reduce the activity down to a series of steps that can be expressed with pencil and paper. And it’s not just describing the normal activity or a specimen case - it is describing every possible permutation of the activity, including permutations that may never have occurred before in practice but have to be handled if they occur.

Just doing this in English, for implementation by a human who understands English, but is not willing to do anything that they have not been told to do, can be beyond feasible. For example, if I want to describe to someone how to wipe their bum. It sounds easy to say, you put your hand behind you, press, and wipe. But which hand? The right. So the person activates the larger muscles in the arm to put their right hand behind them and smears ■■■ across the back of their hand and up their back. Now you realise you didn’t tell them the palm has to face the surface being wiped - the orientation of the hand, involving other muscles, is also relevant. So too, you have to lean forward, so another huge class of muscles now have to be activated too.

It quickly becomes obvious that fully describing how a bum is wiped, in all its physical detail and contextual permutations, is a procedure that no human has ever written down even in a language like English which humans can understand, let alone in the much less expressive language that a computer can implement. And our ability to do this has not really improved during the computer era.

=.

Rjan
Writing computer programs can be complex, however there is a lot of stages known as the lifecycle of programming that takes place well before a line of code is written. It isn’t a case of sitting behind a computer and simply hacking code hoping you get it right. The initial project is undertaken by investigating feasibility studies first of all, then a team of engineers and a project manager will consult IT personnel which will include computer programmers to work on the design stage, the design stage is a series of flow charts and pseudo code is written. Hardware and software platforms will have been discussed and decided on at this stage, hence pseudo code written, obvious bugs will be ironed out at the pseudo code stage. This can take weeks, months and even years before a line of code is even written. Once all of this is in place the project manager will then produce the usual Gant charts to give investors and the programmers a time scale for each phase, included in each phase is testing time, a complex software such as an autonomous vehicle is done by teams of programmers and not undertaken by just just one. This breaks the complexity down of each stage and all is the pieced together rather like a jigsaw puzzle. Your example of wiping your arse is not as complex as you imagine, for one person it would be. We started programming by writing a series of instructions for making a cup of tea. Writing every step down you quickly realise the complexity of this task. By working as a team and splitting each phase down to different programmers working on each section suddenly became quite simple. Put it all together and you have a working program, any bugs are then ironed out and re programmed and tested. This I believe is the stage we are at with autonomous vehicles, it hasn’t appeared overnight, it has been developed over years. You are giving your ideas of how complicated these things are which no doubt they are, but they are attainable by teams of experienced programmers and reusable code that hasn’t been done from scratch. Object oriented design is something that has been used for years, even when I was involved with programming, encapsulation and Object orientation was being used. I like the arguments that you put across as that is how programs are designed, it isn’t throwing insults, it is getting down to the nitty gritty of the problem and overcoming them. I worked on projects that used PRINCE but is now rarely used as by the time the final program was released it was already out of date in both design and hardware, a great example of PRINCE is the Eurofighter plane for the European airforces. The technology was old hat by the time the design stage was complete, money had been invested so they just carried on. It was doomed from day one and destined a flop which everyone knew. The RAF had no option but to take it where other European countries dropped it like a hot potato. Lessons were learnt from this multi billion pound project and vehicle automation will have taken great lessons from it. I believe we are there with it and can only speculate but one thing I am 100% sure of, this isn’t going away any time soon.

Dr Damon:

daffyd:
just wondering Dr Damon…

in an ideal world, what kind of response to these threads would satisfy you??

also…is English your first language?

I am not looking for any particular response
however I cannot be doing with the 'it will never happen brigade

No English is not my first language.

Where did you buy your Phd ?

Networking of thousands of cars with shared database of information constantly updated by each car + machine learning is a formidable beast.
I may be wrong but the crux of it is pattern recognition from its cameras/sensors and if you have thousands of cars teaching each other new patterns, it wont be long before they start to rival humans.
I may be wrong but the only real limiting factor at the moment is the pattern recognition database being too small. Another bottleneck being the pattern recognition software it self that is probably a few years away from being able to spot dangers more dynamically i.e( seeing someone near a road and knowing he may walk out)

^
I’m only assuming that the cars talk to each other to learn and that it is based on pattern recognition I haven’t done any research on it so I’m probably wrong. :grimacing:

UKtramp:
Rjan
Writing computer programs can be complex, however there is a lot of stages known as the lifecycle of programming that takes place well before a line of code is written. It isn’t a case of sitting behind a computer and simply hacking code hoping you get it right. The initial project is undertaken by investigating feasibility studies first of all, then a team of engineers and a project manager will consult IT personnel which will include computer programmers to work on the design stage, the design stage is a series of flow charts and pseudo code is written. Hardware and software platforms will have been discussed and decided on at this stage, hence pseudo code written, obvious bugs will be ironed out at the pseudo code stage. This can take weeks, months and even years before a line of code is even written. Once all of this is in place the project manager will then produce the usual Gant charts to give investors and the programmers a time scale for each phase, included in each phase is testing time, a complex software such as an autonomous vehicle is done by teams of programmers and not undertaken by just just one. This breaks the complexity down of each stage and all is the pieced together rather like a jigsaw puzzle.

And when was the last time you saw a jigsaw puzzle designed and fabricated piece by piece? One starts with the whole, applies paint, and cuts it up. To do it the other way around, to have a team work in parallel, painting each piece and cutting its edges irregularly, would make it almost impossible to integrate. A patchwork quilt is a better metaphor for the approach you describe.

It is not as straightforward and effective as you think to achieve a division of labour on the design task, and still maintain the necessary integrity.

Your example of wiping your arse is not as complex as you imagine, for one person it would be. We started programming by writing a series of instructions for making a cup of tea. Writing every step down you quickly realise the complexity of this task. By working as a team and splitting each phase down to different programmers working on each section suddenly became quite simple.

So how did you cope with making tea that isn’t in a bag, and did you teach it to recognise and recover from a broken bag? Can it get the cup from the cupboard, or from the dishwasher? Can it recognise when the handle has fallen off the cup, or is cracked and about to? Can it add sugar? Can it add milk, and recognise when the milk has curdled? The list is endless, as it is with describing how human bums are wiped. A machine does not necessarily have to do all these things to be useful, but the less it can do, the more supervision it requires, the more its environment must be controlled, the more frequently intervention is required, and the less it can be integrated into a wider automatic process.

Rjan:
And when was the last time you saw a jigsaw puzzle designed and fabricated piece by piece? One starts with the whole, applies paint, and cuts it up. To do it the other way around, to have a team work in parallel, painting each piece and cutting its edges irregularly, would make it almost impossible to integrate. A patchwork quilt is a better metaphor for the approach you describe.

It is not as straightforward and effective as you think to achieve a division of labour on the design task, and still maintain the necessary integrity.

It is a common programming practice and is exactly how it is still done today. Lots of reasons why it is done this way, but yes it is common program design for complex issues and is extremely effective. A patchwork quilt? That may be a good description but a jigsaw I describe is probably the best. Each piece is joined together, the jigsaw is not designed piece by piece and put together, the program is designed in pieces and the pieces are put together like a jigsaw. It is the programmer that programs the pieces from the design, the pieces are joined easily and seamlessly, That is the beauty of the programming environment and software suit. Debugging takes care of the piecing it all together.

Rjan:
So how did you cope with making tea that isn’t in a bag, and did you teach it to recognise and recover from a broken bag? Can it get the cup from the cupboard, or from the dishwasher? Can it recognise when the handle has fallen off the cup, or is cracked and about to? Can it add sugar? Can it add milk, and recognise when the milk has curdled? The list is endless, as it is with describing how human bums are wiped. A machine does not necessarily have to do all these things to be useful, but the less it can do, the more supervision it requires, the more its environment must be controlled, the more frequently intervention is required, and the less it can be integrated into a wider automatic process.

The tea program took all of the design issues as real world programs take to design and put together. The complexity of each stage is designed and programmed and tested, debugged before becoming a piece of the jigsaw ready to fit with the next programmers piece.
For example, you may say fill the kettle up and switch it on, well this is not as specific as needed for the computer. You have to give the exact quantity of water to place in the kettle, where is the water, how does the water fill the kettle, through removing the top or poured through the spout, then where is the water taken from, a tap or a bottle, where is the tap or the bottle, how do you turn on the tap, two turns right or one dial switch etc. You get the idea. So each piece of this complex program is split into sections, of filling the kettle, placing tea bags in a cup etc etc. All of the variables of each stage are then tested for what if. It is very labour intensive and so you can see how expensive software is to design and program from the initial concept to final product. This is why billions will have been invested into autonomous vehicle design. I am an ex programmer and was lecturing on program design up to 5 years ago. It is still the way it is designed today. It comes across to me that you are familiar with possibly web design issues? I may be wrong but that is how it appears as if you were involved with programming as I was, we wouldn’t be having this debate, so no insults please as I am trying to get where you are coming from and what level of programming you are knowledgeable with so I can pitch my experience to that. Bear in mind that I have no real expertise in autonomous vehicle design, the principle of program design in both structure and design issues will be very similar throughout so I can speak of this concept.

UKtramp:

Rjan:
And when was the last time you saw a jigsaw puzzle designed and fabricated piece by piece? One starts with the whole, applies paint, and cuts it up. To do it the other way around, to have a team work in parallel, painting each piece and cutting its edges irregularly, would make it almost impossible to integrate. A patchwork quilt is a better metaphor for the approach you describe.

It is not as straightforward and effective as you think to achieve a division of labour on the design task, and still maintain the necessary integrity.

It is a common programming practice and is exactly how it is still done today. Lots of reasons why it is done this way, but yes it is common program design for complex issues and is extremely effective. A patchwork quilt? That may be a good description but a jigsaw I describe is probably the best. Each piece is joined together, the jigsaw is not designed piece by piece and put together, the program is designed in pieces and the pieces are put together like a jigsaw. It is the programmer that programs the pieces from the design, the pieces are joined easily and seamlessly, That is the beauty of the programming environment and software suit. Debugging takes care of the piecing it all together.

My point is this, that design-by-the-piece creates only the illusion of a reduction in complexity - unless the pieces involve very loosely coupled problems with minimal or no interacting or cross-cutting concerns, which is the case only infrequently (and certainly wouldn’t be characterised as a jigsaw problem). Complexity returns to the stage when the time comes to integrate the resulting design-pieces which, having been conceived to address their own concerns separately from the concerns of the whole or of the other pieces with which they must connect, will be disjoint - it would be marvellously coincidental if two jigsaw pieces cut separately in separate rooms were found to couple.

The integration of any two irreconcilable pieces by redesigning them in conjunction with each other, may not only lay waste to most or all of the design work that was done on them separately, but the modified design of the piece-combination may cause a third or any number of other pieces to become newly disjoint.

And the design of the piece-combination will be subject to some unholy combination of the constraints that applied to the design of each piece separately, meaning that further modifications to the design of the piece-combination (in further rounds of redesign-to-integrate) are substantially more constrained.

With each successful integration, the inertia of the design of the so-far-combined pieces must grow, the number of design constraints operating must grow, as does the amount of waste if redesign and reintegration becomes patently necessary (which with each extra piece becomes more likely and not less), and the complexity of the design challenge steadily approaches what it was when the proposal was first made to break it down into pieces to make it simpler.

Rjan:
So how did you cope with making tea that isn’t in a bag, and did you teach it to recognise and recover from a broken bag? Can it get the cup from the cupboard, or from the dishwasher? Can it recognise when the handle has fallen off the cup, or is cracked and about to? Can it add sugar? Can it add milk, and recognise when the milk has curdled? The list is endless, as it is with describing how human bums are wiped. A machine does not necessarily have to do all these things to be useful, but the less it can do, the more supervision it requires, the more its environment must be controlled, the more frequently intervention is required, and the less it can be integrated into a wider automatic process.

The tea program took all of the design issues as real world programs take to design and put together. The complexity of each stage is designed and programmed and tested, debugged before becoming a piece of the jigsaw ready to fit with the next programmers piece.
For example, you may say fill the kettle up and switch it on, well this is not as specific as needed for the computer. You have to give the exact quantity of water to place in the kettle, where is the water, how does the water fill the kettle, through removing the top or poured through the spout, then where is the water taken from, a tap or a bottle, where is the tap or the bottle, how do you turn on the tap, two turns right or one dial switch etc. You get the idea. So each piece of this complex program is split into sections, of filling the kettle, placing tea bags in a cup etc etc. All of the variables of each stage are then tested for what if. It is very labour intensive and so you can see how expensive software is to design and program from the initial concept to final product. This is why billions will have been invested into autonomous vehicle design. I am an ex programmer and was lecturing on program design up to 5 years ago. It is still the way it is designed today. It comes across to me that you are familiar with possibly web design issues? I may be wrong but that is how it appears as if you were involved with programming as I was, we wouldn’t be having this debate, so no insults please as I am trying to get where you are coming from and what level of programming you are knowledgeable with so I can pitch my experience to that. Bear in mind that I have no real expertise in autonomous vehicle design, the principle of program design in both structure and design issues will be very similar throughout so I can speak of this concept.

I don’t perceive any insults. I am just an armchair philosopher, and what I’m talking about is actually as applicable to complex bureaucracies that don’t involve computers. Feel free to address me at any level, but beware that I may be addressing you on territory that you are not particularly familiar with.

I suspect your time as a lecturer was spent explaining what software can achieve and how to implement the latest design fad, not least because education nowadays is supposed to deliver mass-marketable skills, and not discussing why projects routinely fail to achieve their goals or blow budgets (often both), or why outcomes like clean bums which are seemingly straightforward for humans to achieve are difficult or infeasible to model as physical processes - certainly more difficult than training a dog to ride a unicycle, which is difficult.

I dont understand why anyone would WANT to keep developing computers to such a high degree.

Have none of these people ever seen the terminator?

Now I might not know a lot about aeroplanes but I sure know what computers are capable of.

My truck goes into limp mode because the computer tells it to.

We go to the dealer who connects it to the specialist super-computer and it tells the mechanic what to do. The part is ordered, fitted and off we go a few days later. The mechanic really didn’t even need to know the first thing about trucks as the computer did it all and he just changed the offending item.

Later that day it went into limp mode again so we went to the nearest dealer. The computers did all the clever stuff and the mechanic the dumb stuff and we are on our way again.

3 more limp modes and dealer visits in the next month and about £9,000 later the problem is finally fixed by the computer (some on warranty).

Now if computers can fix a complicated piece of machinery like a truck exhaust in only 5 go’s, they can certainly fly a Jumbo jet so I don’t really see what all the arguing is about here.

In fact if a computer is smarter than a truck mechanic it is certainly smarter than a driver so I’m surprised the roads aren’t full of driverless trucks already.

Maybe drivers like pilots are only there to open and close the back doors :smiley:

Now I’m going back to watching more Air Crash Investigation since obviously no one else around here does.

Has this fixed the problem?

Press 1 for Yes
Press 2 for No

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hurryup&wait:
Now I might not know a lot about aeroplanes but I sure know what computers are capable of.

My truck goes into limp mode because the computer tells it to.

We go to the dealer who connects it to the specialist super-computer and it tells the mechanic what to do. The part is ordered, fitted and off we go a few days later. The mechanic really didn’t even need to know the first thing about trucks as the computer did it all and he just changed the offending item.

Later that day it went into limp mode again so we went to the nearest dealer. The computers did all the clever stuff and the mechanic the dumb stuff and we are on our way again.

3 more limp modes and dealer visits in the next month and about £9,000 later the problem is finally fixed by the computer (under warranty).

Now if computers can fix a complicated piece of machinery like a truck exhaust in only 5 go’s, they can certainly fly a Jumbo jet so I don’t really see what all the arguing is about here.

In fact if a computer is smarter than a truck mechanic it is certainly smarter than a driver so I’m surprised the roads aren’t full of driverless trucks already.

Maybe drivers like pilots are only there to open and close the back doors :smiley:

Now I’m going back to watching more Air Crash Investigation since obviously no one else around here does.

There’s a big difference between diagnosing and replacing a knackered bearing among other mechanical faults.As opposed to diagnosing an electronic fault within the electronic control systems which another computer can help to diagnose just like an AVO meter is essential in diagnosing other electrical faults.So who is it that actually reads what the computer diagnoses then removes the knackered ECU or injector etc and replaces it when it’s been diagnosed as faulty ?.Never seen a computer yet which can handle a spanner or a screwdriver and would probably cost more to buy and maintain than paying a human if even it could in addition to having to pay the mechanic’s unemployment benefit. :unamused:

As for aircrash investigation Air France 447 applies.

Hurryup&wait:
Now I might not know a lot about aeroplanes but I sure know what computers are capable of.

My truck goes into limp mode because the computer tells it to.

We go to the dealer who connects it to the specialist super-computer and it tells the mechanic what to do. The part is ordered, fitted and off we go a few days later. The mechanic really didn’t even need to know the first thing about trucks as the computer did it all and he just changed the offending item.

Later that day it went into limp mode again so we went to the nearest dealer. The computers did all the clever stuff and the mechanic the dumb stuff and we are on our way again.

3 more limp modes and dealer visits in the next month and about £9,000 later the problem is finally fixed by the computer (some on warranty).

Now if computers can fix a complicated piece of machinery like a truck exhaust in only 5 go’s, they can certainly fly a Jumbo jet so I don’t really see what all the arguing is about here.

In fact if a computer is smarter than a truck mechanic it is certainly smarter than a driver so I’m surprised the roads aren’t full of driverless trucks already.

Maybe drivers like pilots are only there to open and close the back doors :smiley:

Now I’m going back to watching more Air Crash Investigation since obviously no one else around here does.

Yep, and it’s relevant to note that airplanes don’t “limp home” when they encounter a problem - I believe the technical term for what they do is “fall from the sky”. :laughing:

Which is why planes aren’t left to fly themselves, no matter how infrequently a problem is actually encountered which would cause the autopilot to “limp”.

Carryfast:
There’s a big difference between diagnosing and replacing a knackered bearing among other mechanical faults.As opposed to diagnosing an electronic fault within the electronic control systems which another computer can help to diagnose just like an AVO meter is essential in diagnosing other electrical faults.So who is it that actually reads what the computer diagnoses then removes the knackered ECU or injector etc and replaces it when it’s been diagnosed as faulty ?.Never seen a computer yet which can handle a spanner or a screwdriver and would probably cost more to buy and maintain than paying a human if even it could in addition to having to pay the mechanic’s unemployment benefit. :unamused:

As for aircrash investigation Air France 447 applies.

Indeed. It is notable that many products that are designed on computer and computer-fabricated, still require manual disassembly and maintenance.

Another issue that manifests itself with both mechanical devices and computer systems generally, is that you can’t usually perform maintenance straightforwardly or feasibly whilst they are in operation. Truck tyres are not changed whilst at speed on the motorway. Aircraft wings aren’t changed mid-flight. And computers that act as the lynchpins of certain organisations which are themselves lynchpins of the wider economy, such as stock exchanges, power networks, banks, telecommunications, and similar, can’t be taken (or allowed to be) offline for any appreciable amount of time without causing a haemorrhage of economic loss and grave disruption to other more peripheral processes that weren’t necessarily designed to cope with the outage of these core systems.

I read something very recently that argued, in terms, that complexity is one of the horsemen of the apocalypse.

Most of us probably used a mobile phone roughly 20 yrs ago. The first i-phone was less than 10 yrs ago and look where we are now.
It’s an accelerating curve and major automation is rushing at us faster than we realise.

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Munchkin:
Most of us probably used a mobile phone roughly 20 yrs ago. The first i-phone was less than 10 yrs ago and look where we are now.
It’s an accelerating curve and major automation is rushing at us faster than we realise.

Wireless communication technology isn’t the same thing automating large sectors of the economy like transport.Either in terms of the logistics of making and teaching a mobile phone to drive let alone the end result and implications when humans no longer have the money or even motivation or choice to buy stuff like cars.IE the employers won’t want to pay for all the extra costs of the technology then also have to pay the redundancy and unemployment benefits needed for their redundant workers.While might as well use the cheaper bus than pay for the robot taxi in most cases.The motor industry obviously losing the private car transport market either way according to Dr Damon.What could possibly go wrong.

Munchkin:
Most of us probably used a mobile phone roughly 20 yrs ago. The first i-phone was less than 10 yrs ago and look where we are now.
It’s an accelerating curve and major automation is rushing at us faster than we realise.

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Yes Munchkin a lot faster than most think. Interesting discussions on this thread though. Wonder where you guys get the time.