, started 5.30 , finished 13.00 , makes you wonder what it will be like when it really hits
People will lose jobs.
This recession will be unlike others. With more job vacancies than unemployed we’re not going to end up with millions out of work. Also the recession is actually not going to be caused by people not having money to spend but by not being able to spend it due to the still ongoing global supply chain issues. For example if you want a new car you’re still looking at a year waiting list due to component shortages - in the USA they’re having to cut car production by 100,000 cars this week alone. Sony are having to re-design the Playstation 5 for the same reason.
Yeah it’s going to be a strange one, I’m not sure raising interest rates helps so much this time either as the inflation hasn’t been caused by rampant consumerism that needs dampening down and is instead being caused by the absolute essentials such as fuel and energy and the impacts of that. These are things that people can’t just “cut out” so being forced into paying more on mortgages or other debts etc at a time when outgoings are unavoidably going up for necessities doesn’t tally and is just going to oush more over the edge.
There’s a balance between cooling consumer demand and stamping on everyone. With the cost of fuel and energy going up, and with them being essential, the majority of people would put paying for them ahead of paying for meals out or a new TV etc so this bout of inflation would have the effect of interest rate rises anyway as more of the disposable income would be required to service those payments. Now everyone needs to find more to service thise payments PLUS increased debt repayments.
Not to mention the every interest rate increases interest payment in the national debt too… you’d think keeping rated low and the chancellor enjoying inflationary tax takes would be favourable as it would allow us to in effect inflate away some of the national debt.
But then I’m just a lorry driver…
Conor:
With more job vacancies than unemployed we’re not going to end up with millions out of work
Rather over simplistic.
Having temporary fruit picking jobs in Norfolk doesnt make an easy match for unemployed family men and women in South Wales. The Tory leadership contenders are trying to appeal to their members with the old stories of making underpaid (gov subsidised) jobs more appealing by cutting pitiful benefits further, but, "Get on your bike" hasnt been replaced by forcible removal of dissidents to labour camps in The East yet.
What is causing the present looming problems?
Largely supply issues.
Be it Covid causing lack of supply of manufactured components from China etc, or energy shortages and food shortages because of the Russians, prices are rising.
Interest rates are rising as a consequence.
Some are chuckling away at their good fortune to be net savers, previously they had bank interest rates of under 1%, now it is set to rise, with inflation previously 2-ish% they were losing out a bit.
They only see the rise in interest rates as good, discounting the massive inflation looming that will make their previous small losses (on bank rates) puny compared with the greater % differentials in the future.
The UK seems to have a worse inflation rate forecast than other developed countries, better than basket-case economies still, but worse than our peers.
Why? Do we have worse supply issues than other countries?..
Are we a net importer of foods? Yes for a looong time we have been so.
Has something happened recently to increase supply chain costs for importers of food and goods?
Has something happened recently to increase costs for exporters running down the amout we export and the profits we make from them?
Franglais:
What is causing the present looming problems?
Largely supply issues.
Be it Covid causing lack of supply of manufactured components from China etc, or energy shortages and food shortages because of the Russians, prices are rising.Interest rates are rising as a consequence.
Some are chuckling away at their good fortune to be net savers, previously they had bank interest rates of under 1%, now it is set to rise, with inflation previously 2-ish% they were losing out a bit.
They only see the rise in interest rates as good, discounting the massive inflation looming that will make their previous small losses (on bank rates) puny compared with the greater % differentials in the future.The UK seems to have a worse inflation rate forecast than other developed countries, better than basket-case economies still, but worse than our peers.
Why? Do we have worse supply issues than other countries?..
Are we a net importer of foods? Yes for a looong time we have been so.
Has something happened recently to increase supply chain costs for importers of food and goods?
Has something happened recently to increase costs for exporters running down the amout we export and the profits we make from them?
You can’t change the facts to suit your opinion!
telegraph.co.uk/business/20 … s-britain/
Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk
stu675:
You can’t change the facts to suit your opinion!
telegraph.co.uk/business/20 … s-britain/
You not been reading the 75 pages over on the Brexit thread! 
So? The Telegraph wants to compare us to Greece and Spain?
Weren`t we always doing better than those countries when we were in the EU?
oecd.org/newsroom/consumer- … in%20April.
Germany has a worse situation largely due to its dependence on Russian energy. We all suffer because energy shortages on one sector are reflected on the world market.
The UK having oil in the North Sea doesnt necessarily make a huge difference: the oil reserves arent owned by a state oil company, but by international stakeholder owned companies, in the absence of strong laws and low taxes we gain next to nowt from our oil.
The future looks better for the US because its GDP is doing better than the UKs.
Look at it like this: if two countries have comparable inflation, but one has better GDP figures then it`s better earnings mitigate the inflation. Just as us having a pay rise softens price inflation so does GDP increases soften inflation for a country.
Franglais:
The UK seems to have a worse inflation rate forecast than other developed countries, better than basket-case economies still, but worse than our peers.
Why? Do we have worse supply issues than other countries?..
Are we a net importer of foods? Yes for a looong time we have been so.
Has something happened recently to increase supply chain costs for importers of food and goods?
Has something happened recently to increase costs for exporters running down the amout we export and the profits we make from them?
Oh here we go…Brexit. If it’s because of Brexit then why is the inflation rate of the USA for June 2022 just 0.3% less than the UK?
EU average inflation rate is 9.6% for June 2022, 9.4% for the UK.
But within the EEA/EU…
Iceland 9.9%
Netherlands 10.3%
Spain 10.8%
Greece 11.6%
Romania 15.05%
Poland 15.5%
Latvia 21.5%
Estonia 22.8%
Are their rates because of Brexit?
The only reason the main comparable EU economy to the UK’s, France, has lower inflation is because of nuclear energy which is majority owned by the government and the French government putting a price cap on gas and electricity which is seeing them running at a massive loss which is going to cause them problems in the future. So given that in order to have a meaningfully lower level of inflation they’ve had to cap the rises in the price of energy to 4% it’s almost like the price of energy has more to do with inflation than Brexit.
Conor:
Oh here we go…Brexit. If it’s because of Brexit then why is the inflation rate of the USA for June 2022 just 0.3% less than the UK?
Oh, here we go…compare the UK with Greece or the USA, and think it is about Brexit?
Brexit and it`s effects are not about where the UK is compared with other countries.
It is about the effect Brexit has had on the UK itself.
But since you mention it, the USA has about twice the GDP increase of the UK.
That means that as a country it is earning more. It`s extra income eats further into the same-ish price inflation.
The same inflation rate about two times times the harmful effect here, than there.
bbc.com/news/business-62299490
bbc.com/news/business-61997353
Years of underinvestment in the UK in all fields is having its effect. Farming everything out to the private sector, letting "the market decide" has not been a particular success has it? As time goes on the obvious, private companies are there to pay shareholders, not to invest in a countrys infrastructure, will grow ever more stark.
The loss of quality jobs, to be replaced by twice the number of half paid jobs…
Unemployment goes DOWN. Benefit claimaints also go DOWN.
“Disposable income” and “taxes paid” however - goes UP.
Just like the USA who are appointing tens of thousands of new tax collectors to fully enforce those new taxes, that - you’ve guessed it - will only be paid by hapless PAYE workers, not the super rich, large corporations, or self-employed who can side step a lot if not all of taxation - by using an accountant in the usual ways…
If you can’t afford it? - Run up the plastic.
Once the plastic is maxed out?
You can either default, and go without credit for the next six years, or murder-suicide your family, if you believe the claptrap that “debts must be paid, and you are beneath contempt should you even consider not paying back your debts!”
I suspect that Sunak might be installed by the deep state’s pick for new PM, and he’ll carry on with the current policy of impoverishing people in the UK by stealth. “It’s not our fault we threw away billions to actual nazis in Ukraine - that’s Putin who made us back them!” House prices to fall, wages to fall, inflation to rise, income on investments to rise. Middle classes? - Destroyed.
Just about where we were a full 100 years ago this year all around Europe…
In the midst of “Tutmania” - a distraction in the toaring twenties media of the day, of course…
Talking to chap in office today , said it’s dead ,
dozy:
Talking to chap in office today , said it’s dead ,
Agency office? - Dead in August■■ 
Winseer:
dozy:
Talking to chap in office today , said it’s dead ,Agency office? - Dead in August■■
Speaking to a guy at my place today, a rep from Pertemps, he said similar. Reckons they’re not seeing the normal head of steam with enquiries heading towards Christmas planning.
Winseer:
dozy:
Talking to chap in office today , said it’s dead ,Agency office? - Dead in August■■
No company I’m at , been there a while but can’t see it next week , as for agency , would often see txts for extra days , but not seen any of late
Had a good run so can’t complain
dozy:
Winseer:
dozy:
Talking to chap in office today , said it’s dead ,Agency office? - Dead in August■■
No company I’m at , been there a while but can’t see it next week , as for agency , would often see txts for extra days , but not seen any of late
Had a good run so can’t complain
My phone has been getting texts from agencies I’ve never signed up with, let alone worked for.
It was pretty much the same a year ago today, although on that occasion, I chose to do a 17 day assignment for the first one to call, and left my current part-time directly employed firm I was at - to go back to agency again.
This week - I get to take two weeks off in August for the first time this century - courtesy of being agency, rather than “not quite enough seniority, sorry bud” which is where most other people are at with regards to “Taking holidays during August”… Not gloating, just pointing out one of the advantages of having “irregular” hours.
Winseer:
This week - I get to take two weeks off in August for the first time this century - courtesy of being agency, rather than “not quite enough seniority, sorry bud” which is where most other people are at with regards to “Taking holidays during August”… Not gloating, just pointing out one of the advantages of having “irregular” hours.
Obviously the 12 days holiday I’m having off from tomorrow after I finish my shift today is in my head then, just like last August when we went to Norfolk for the week. You really do spout some complete and utter crap on here.
tmcassett:
Obviously the 12 days holiday I’m having off from tomorrow after I finish my shift today is in my head then, just like last August when we went to Norfolk for the week. You really do spout some complete and utter crap on here.
Yeah but that’s you and how long have you been at where you work? Chances are someone else who hasn’t been there as long wanted to book the same week(s) and got told no because you wanted to and had seniority. And that’s the point Winseer was making.
Where I’m at the permanent drivers have to fill in a holiday request form which then goes to management who say yes or no depending on who has already put in a request for that same period and at most large companies if you’ve not booked time you want off in August by the end of the first week in January you’re not going to get it because everyone else will have jumped in already. With my agency I just have to give 2 weeks notice. “Book me holiday for week after next, thanks” is all anyone at my agency has to say. There’s no “sorry mate we have to refuse you because Bob and Dave are off that week already”.