Anyone got any thoughts on how long the shortage will last? We all know it’s bad now - about 5 foot two - but are we looking at months? Years? With the average age being 56 will they all be retiring soon or will they work till they nail the coffin lid down?
By the way, funnily enough the average age of a HGV driver is 56 and the average waist size is 57" .
JeffA:
Anyone got any thoughts on how long the shortage will last? We all know it’s bad now - about 5 foot two - but are we looking at months? Years? With the average age being 56 will they all be retiring soon or will they work till they nail the coffin lid down?By the way, funnily enough the average age of a HGV driver is 56 and the average waist size is 57" .
I wouldn’t hold my breath for too long - apparently there are 30 000 HGV license applicants waiting in line already. Combine with normalization of demand and it will be back to normal or worse before this time next year
So you think in two years they will all be paying minimum wage again? Wouldnt that cause another driver shortage?
Wont ir35 put off east europeans when they can earn a fiver an hour more in Europe?
Can you think of any other jobs this has happened in? When plumbers started earning more did more people become plumbers so rates fell back lower?
It’s this uncertainty about duration why i’ve been suggesting not to jump ship onto agency to play the bidding game, but to organise where you are permently employed, maybe even (the horror of it) form a union and negotiate binding decent terms and condition improvements whilst the industry is in a flap.
This is a one off opportunity for drivers to get the pay rises they (unionised drivers did anyway) shopudl have been enjoying over the past decade or two, it won’t be there for ever.
My fear isn’t new drivers coming through the system, that’s always been the case, we have stupid people in govt and anyone’s guess what they might do once enough pressure is put on the clown supposedly running things.
It is a ploy they use to flood the market simply supply and demand tactics,propaganda bs everyone swallows it because of the pathetic subservience traits in a service industry(don’t get offended soldiers are subservient and die for a lying politicians BS)
Now it is real it will increase pay and conditions properly,so secure a good contract now while you can…Or don’t ! It is up to you…
Once this real crisis is over the governing body goats will go back to the start,“we need more cheap labour”! Claim another fake shortage and the cycle of ■■■■■■■■ continues,give us cheap labour is what they really mean,! More so to line their own fat greedy pockets…
It is a cycle of ■■■■■■■■ 
This idea that they will pay £16 an hour but drop it to minimum wage next year - is that based on anything more than a paranoid imagination? Has it ever happened in any other line of work?
Who knows?
18 months ago,there were plenty on here…saying we’d all be out of a job by now.
Yet here we are…enjoying the best it’s ever been(for alot of us)
Spend a bit…save a bit…is my advice.
It’s a crazy world we live in.
Yes thats what I mean. HGV drivers are notoriously rubbish at predicting the future. Is there a single one who actually predicted this shortage for example? Yet now they seem to know precisely what will happen next year - as if they are nostradamus looking into the glass while holding a double bacon sandwich smothered in daddys.
If you never saw this coming in a million years why would you think your predictions for next year will be any better?
I dont think rates will drop. I can see them stagnating once they’ve reached a level though and then the whole cycle begins again. As you say, it’s an older industry generally so that too will weigh going forward
I think it will be like this until after Christmas peak.
Juddian:
form a union and negotiate binding decent terms and condition improvements whilst the industry is in a flap.
This is a one off opportunity for drivers to get the pay rises it won’t be there for ever.
Best advice for either new drivers or drivers who have lost the faith, give it a go and make the best of what we have. It WON’T last forever!!!
Now the genie is out of the bottle can he go back in?
Yorkshire Tramper:
Juddian:
form a union and negotiate binding decent terms and condition improvements whilst the industry is in a flap.
This is a one off opportunity for drivers to get the pay rises it won’t be there for ever.
/quote]
Best advice for either new drivers or drivers who have lost the faith, give it a go and make the best of what we have. It WON’T last forever!!!
Why not? There was a plumber shortage in the 90s - are plumbers back making minimum wage now? The average age is 56…why isnt it going to get worse and worse for the next twenty years? Theres a driver shortage all across europe too.
JeffA:
as if they are nostradamus looking into the glass while holding a double bacon sandwich smothered in daddys.
JeffA:
Why not? There was a plumber shortage in the 90s - are plumbers back making minimum wage now?
We are not tradespeople and are not classed as skilled workers, we will soon be on a race to the bottom again
Yorkshire Tramper:
JeffA:
Why not? There was a plumber shortage in the 90s - are plumbers back making minimum wage now?We are not tradespeople and are not classed as skilled workers, we will soon be on a race to the bottom again
Maybe thats a good thing tho - if people think they will be spending 2 grand getting a license for aporoximately 6 months of decent pay it will hardly attract baying hordes of applicants. They may as well stay where they are.
We may be way out in front for a few years yet - like our bellies are.
News is saying arla only did 50% of its deliveires last week.
Yes there is maybe is a shortage of drivers.
But personally I think more companies are jumping on the band wagon now blaming a driver shortage.
When in reality it’s more staff shortage at rdc/warehouses. Incompetent office staff etc. That’s part of the problem.
But no it’s shortage of drivers that’s to blame
The fella on the news this morning from Arla was pretty clear, these operators are lobbying the govt to re-open to floodgates to the EE’s. They don’t like this new situation where they are having to think about paying drivers decently and not just treating them as easily replaced disposables.
Aren’t Arla another outfit who once had a decent in house transport set up, but farmed it all out to a third party (Morans?) to the detriment of drivers pay & conditions? Now milks being poured away because they can’t get drivers…. my heart bleeds.
^^^ yep, most larger operations who had in house transport had such good terms they were fighting drivers off with a crappy stick, cue logistics.com arrives and it all goes to rat droppings.
rob22888:
The fella on the news this morning from Arla was pretty clear, these operators are lobbying the govt to re-open to floodgates to the EE’s. They don’t like this new situation where they are having to think about paying drivers decently and not just treating them as easily replaced disposables.Aren’t Arla another outfit who once had a decent in house transport set up, but farmed it all out to a third party (Morans?) to the detriment of drivers pay & conditions? Now milks being poured away because they can’t get drivers…. my heart bleeds.
Are the EEs really going to flood back when they can make more in most every other country in europe? No IR35 any more.
Might have to go for the indians and filipinos. If they would prefer to hire a filipino for a couple of quid an hour less then good luck to them - after they go down the motorway the wrong way a few times they might think twice.
Govt said last week dont expect east europeans to bail you out of this - work with the indigenous population.
We complain about cheap labour which is fair enough,but it’s not just lorry drivers.We don’t mind using low cost airlines or cheap clothes made in third world countries.I think the whole capitalist system needs looking at,ok not communism,I don’t know what the answer is,but the rich are getting richer and the working is at the bottom up to his neck in debt to pay his mortgage to pay for his house that house only cost a small fraction to actually build, just some thoughts I had,I’m no expert on this