I personally believe trucking will become a dead or non-viable profession in the (relatively) near future, 10 maybe 15 years which means I’ll be 15-20 years away from retirement and with no useful job/skills. Obviously the world will have changed and what not, initially I was thinking HGV mechanic but by then trucks will be so different - possibly all electric, with swap-out modules and proprietary tech etc.
Transport planner I think will be a dead/dying profession as well because by that time AI should be advanced enough to be able to do the same.
I looked at some courses at OpenUniversity and holy macaroni, they want £3000+ per year (increasing each year in line with inflation) for a 6 year distance learning for a BA in Criminology where the expected annual salary is £20 000 - 24 000 LOL? No way I’m paying this much out of my own pocket, the Gov’t(s) better be setting aside some cash for us poor truckers of the future or tax heavily companies who want to use auto-trucks and use the proceeds for re-education. Lol, £3000 per year for a bunch of links to wikipedia and PDF books - f. that. The nerve of these pricks.
What will you do when/if truck driving is dead (as in, far fewer jobs than drivers and don’t say “oh it’s how it is already”) and you’re still a decade or more away from retirement?
I’ve always dreamt of being one of them guys who spins the waltzers around when the pretty young things climb aboard. If trucking dies then I’m definitely gonna retrain.
trainingmentor:
I can’t see trucking becoming a ‘dead profession’ in 10-15 years.
For this to happen, advancements in technology that don’t exist yet would have to happen, so putting a timeframe on it is next to impossible.
There are still far too many complications for new technologies to overcome when dealing with our industry.
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15 years ago if you wanted to go online you had to plug in a weird cable into your telephone jack in the wall - let’s not mention the speed, now you have internet in your pocket.
Point is, even if it’s not ‘dead’ it’s certainly conceivable that the number of jobs will only go down as fully or partly automated trucks roll out and the prices of diesel go up and up, green heads ban trucks from cities etc. Even if things were to remain the same, I still can’t see myself driving in my late 50s/60s.
I get 10-15ft wide, fragile loads down country roads and into tight spaces with inches to spare each side… doubt a robot truck is going to be able to do that so I’m safe. Its the rdc to rdc gang that are screwed
i can only sit horrified with the thought of a robot grandpa,carryfast and jakethesnake (or whoever itl be by then) all waffling away in a robot waiting room,all verbally copying and pasting pish from their inbuilt speech sensitive google.
wide-load85:
I get 10-15ft wide, fragile loads down country roads and into tight spaces with inches to spare each side… doubt a robot truck is going to be able to do that so I’m safe. Its the rdc to rdc gang that are screwed
Your probably safer than most, but never underestimate what can be done with technology. It will be and has been the downfall of many.
The most immediate threat really is not complete automation of the job, but the more ‘autopilot’ and assistance tech that gets crammed into vehicles ultimately dumbing the job down & making it harder for drivers to demand a decent wage.
ETS:
I looked at some courses at OpenUniversity and holy macaroni, they want £3000+ per year (increasing each year in line with inflation) for a 6 year distance learning for a BA in Criminology where the expected annual salary is £20 000 - 24 000 LOL? No way I’m paying this much out of my own pocket
The amount of time we see on the forum that people spend 3k on getting a truck license and it’s expensive. Get it and you should be on 30k within 2 years, possibly a lot more. It really is not a lot of money to shell out. Plenty of university grads doing rubbish jobs having done a useless degree earning far less than a trucker and even worse, stuck in a cubicle all day with a level of monitoring that makes inward facing cameras a mon issue.
wide-load85:
I get 10-15ft wide, fragile loads down country roads and into tight spaces with inches to spare each side… doubt a robot truck is going to be able to do that so I’m safe. Its the rdc to rdc gang that are screwed
Your probably safer than most, but never underestimate what can be done with technology. It will be and has been the downfall of many.
The most immediate threat really is not complete automation of the job, but the more ‘autopilot’ and assistance tech that gets crammed into vehicles ultimately dumbing the job down & making it harder for drivers to demand a decent wage.
I would not bet on that when you see how fast technology is moving. Its absolutely amazing what robots can do and some things far more complicated than driving.
There is no doubt that in the future everything will be more efficient and accident free when drivers become something else.
Driving will not die off in a very long time. Auto drive vehicles are predominantly designed to take over the monotonous motorway miles so drivers can be rested and alert when needed to take control in tighter areas.
Even if they could do a full journey, they would cost far too much for most
companies to be able to afford, or to be more cost effective than employing a driver.
Then you’ve got all of the other things that drivers do that machines couldn’t, like opening curtains, strapping loads or connecting pipes, dropping and swapping trailers etc.
Warehouse staff and FLT drivers will be out of work long before HGV drivers are, and even they won’t be replaced in the time frame you’re talking about
CookieMonster:
Even if they could do a full journey, they would cost far too much for most
companies to be able to afford, or to be more cost effective than employing a driver.
I would speculate that autonomous vehicles would be far cheaper, comprising purely of the engine, driveline and ecu, with a cover to keep the rain out. No heater, air-suspended seat, windows, windscreen wipers, radio, bed, curtains, fridge, storage spaces etc etc etc.
I have just under six years left until I retire and I don’t see it happening within that time, but it almost certainly will in my kids’ working lifetimes.
CookieMonster:
Driving will not die off in a very long time. Auto drive vehicles are predominantly designed to take over the monotonous motorway miles so drivers can be rested and alert when needed to take control in tighter areas.
Even if they could do a full journey, they would cost far too much for most
companies to be able to afford, or to be more cost effective than employing a driver.
Then you’ve got all of the other things that drivers do that machines couldn’t, like opening curtains, strapping loads or connecting pipes, dropping and swapping trailers etc.
Warehouse staff and FLT drivers will be out of work long before HGV drivers are, and even they won’t be replaced in the time frame you’re talking about
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You are thinking like a truck driver. Transport will change dramatically in the future.
yet another alternate id crusade for autonomous trucks…uktramp is dead,long live jakethesnake to carry the torch.
the think people seem to forget that in general terms once america gets it,and then years later itl hit europe,then effectively in britain years later, theres only about 500 miles max north to south for a motorway network from central scotland to dover through chronic motorway closed diversion gridlock,then its a safe bet your kids can go and work for stobarts for the next 40 years or more.
CookieMonster:
Even if they could do a full journey, they would cost far too much for most
companies to be able to afford, or to be more cost effective than employing a driver.
I would speculate that autonomous vehicles would be far cheaper, comprising purely of the engine, driveline and ecu, with a cover to keep the rain out. No heater, air-suspended seat, windows, windscreen wipers, radio, bed, curtains, fridge, storage spaces etc etc etc.
I have just under six years left until I retire and I don’t see it happening within that time, but it almost certainly will in my kids’ working lifetimes.
You would still need a person to travel with the vehicle so you would still need most of those things.
If you’re delivering a couple of pallets to a yard, someone would have to open the curtain, unstrap and re-strap the load then close the curtain again. Why would the company you’re delivering to want to pay someone to do that when a driver is there to do it instead?
Home delivery drivers, HIAB, bin lorries, tankers, general haulage, ADR and many other driving sectors could not function without a person in the cab, and will not be able to within the foreseeable future
Of course, it wouldn’t work for all sectors of transport, at least at first. I would see inter-depot trunking as the first thing to be automated and I can’t see hauliers sending a driver on a 300 mile journey just to open the curtains at the other end. The whole point of automation is to eliminate the expense of the driver.
ETS:
I personally believe trucking will become a dead or non-viable profession in the (relatively) near future, 10 maybe 15 years which means I’ll be 15-20 years away from retirement and with no useful job/skills. Obviously the world will have changed and what not, initially I was thinking HGV mechanic but by then trucks will be so different - possibly all electric, with swap-out modules and proprietary tech etc.
Transport planner I think will be a dead/dying profession as well because by that time AI should be advanced enough to be able to do the same.
I looked at some courses at OpenUniversity and holy macaroni, they want £3000+ per year (increasing each year in line with inflation) for a 6 year distance learning for a BA in Criminology where the expected annual salary is £20 000 - 24 000 LOL? No way I’m paying this much out of my own pocket, the Gov’t(s) better be setting aside some cash for us poor truckers of the future or tax heavily companies who want to use auto-trucks and use the proceeds for re-education. Lol, £3000 per year for a bunch of links to wikipedia and PDF books - f. that. The nerve of these pricks.
What will you do when/if truck driving is dead (as in, far fewer jobs than drivers and don’t say “oh it’s how it is already”) and you’re still a decade or more away from retirement?
There will always be some form of road transport and people like dieseldog who probably can’t do anything else driving them, by what will then be a minimum wage.
To get into any form of management these days you need a degree (yes they’re expensive), but if you’re young enough look to the future. Drug addiction counsellor, prison officer … Look ahead and plan for what will still be needed in twenty years’ time. In a few years’ time and probably less than ten, if a foreigner can do what you can now, they’ll be doing it.
Harry Monk:
Of course, it wouldn’t work for all sectors of transport, at least at first. I would see inter-depot trunking as the first thing to be automated and I can’t see hauliers sending a driver on a 300 mile journey just to open the curtains at the other end. The whole point of automation is to eliminate the expense of the driver.
Here’s the sort of thing Volvo is aiming for.
I half expect the pink panther to climb out of that tractor unit.
CookieMonster:
Home delivery drivers, HIAB, bin lorries, tankers, general haulage, ADR and many other driving sectors could not function without a person in the cab, and will not be able to within the foreseeable future
Okay, this bin collector needs a driver, but that was back in 2009. It’s not hard to see how the system could be upgraded to no driver once driverless trucks become reality. Bin collection would be ideal because they follow pre-determined routes.
