In or Out- the EU referendum mega thread

I think the politicians should do as the result says. If the outcome is so bad that they are willing to over rule the result then they should not have held a referendum.

alicks77:
I think the politicians should do as the result says. If the outcome is so bad that they are willing to over rule the result then they should not have held a referendum.

They thought they would win comfortably so it was a pr exercise! They never thought it would happen to worry about overruling

Dolph:
Why we may remain even if we vote Leave
Anthony Hilton:

Back in 1975, the last time we had a referendum on whether we should continue to be a member of the European Union, the Government spelled out in advance that it would not necessarily do what the people decided.

The Labour government of Harold Wilson made it clear the referendum was advisory — the ultimate opinion poll if you like — but that “the British parliament in Westminster retains the final right to repeal the Act which took us into the Market on January 1, 1973”.

People seem not to understand that this is still the case. The referendum next week is not binding and the result does not constitute a final irrevocable decision either way. People talk about notifying the EU of our intention to leave and then having two years to organise it, but that is not the core issue either. If we are to leave the EU, it will take a fully fledged Act of Parliament to do so. It is hard to see how a notice to quit under Article 50 could be served, given it sets that process in train without the agreement of Parliament.

But that should have to go through the Commons and the Lords, plus all the committee stages, just like any other Act of Parliament. That is a big ask for a Tory Government with a majority of only 14. It is one of the ironies of the campaign that the Brexiteers bang on constantly about Parliament’s loss of sovereignty and claim all our laws are made in Brussels. It is a lie because, as they may yet find out, the British Parliament has retained more than enough sovereignty to thwart their plans and ignore the referendum result.

The British Parliament is sovereign and it is accountable to the people — but through elections at which we choose those whom we want to represent us, not through referendums. To rub in the point, Members of Parliament are representatives, not delegates, the difference being they are there to decide what in their judgment is good for us and the country, not simply to do what we say. That is why we do not have capital punishment, which was abolished in the Sixties although a clear majority of the population remained in favour of it. A civil war was fought and a king beheaded to establish that sovereignty; it is not something that can be set aside at the whim of a Boris.

The interesting thing is that the 650 members of the House of Commons are overwhelmingly in favour of staying in. How overwhelming? Well Brian Reading, for many years one of the team at Lombard Street Research, has done the sums and published them on the website of Omfif, the financial think-tank. He thinks the Conservatives are 50% for remain, 40% for out and 10% unknown.

On the Labour side, remain is supported by 215 members, leave by seven and there are 10 unknown. In percentage terms, that makes 93% in favour of staying, against 3% for leaving.

The 56 Scottish Nationalists and the eight Liberals are overwhelmingly for remain but the views of the Welsh and Northern Irish members are more mixed. Nevertheless, the overall picture is clear. Reading concludes that the MPs are 70% in favour of remaining with 20% wanting to leave and 10% whose preferences are unknown. That does not sound far off the mark.

So what will Parliament do in the event of a referendum vote for Brexit? Reading suggests it will depend very much on the size of the majority and the turnout. If the vote was 60 to 40 to leave on a turnout of 80%, MPs might feel obliged to support a Bill for exiting because there was so much popular support.

But if the vote was 51 to 49 on a turnout of 50%, they could legitimately argue that only just over 25% of the population had actively supported Brexit, and supporting a Bill to leave would be too big a step to take on the basis of such thin support. So, even if he wanted to, David Cameron could not get such a bill through the Commons, let alone the Lords. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, if he were to topple Cameron, would have even less chance.

So how might this be resolved? One obvious tactic would be for Cameron to accept the Brexit vote and undertake to begin negotiations for withdrawal without actually triggering the formal mechanism that sets the two-year clock ticking. As these negotiations proceed, people will gradually get a better idea of what Brexit might mean in practice and it is a fair bet if the negotiations are tough that they might begin to have some doubts as to what they had signed up to.

Even if they like the romantic idea of swimming in the wide open sea, they might not want to jump off Beachy Head to get into the water.

Once there was a clear idea of what leaving would look like, it might be legitimate to go back to the country and ask, via another referendum, whether people still wanted to do this. And who knows what that result would be.

Perhaps the only real conclusion is that, far from settling the issue, this referendum is most likely to make things worse. A Remain vote is not going to convince the Tories that they should work more constructively and enthusiastically with the EU; a Leave vote may not achieve that result either. These past few weeks have entrenched prejudices far more than they have opened minds.

I’d agree with the idea that a referendum isn’t going to sort out the issue from the point of view of either side.Having said that it’s ironic but predictable that the remainers would want to take advantage of the so called ‘democratic’ ‘sovereignty’ of the government when it suits them but not when it doesn’t.Such as in the case of using EU federal vote to push through a Socialist/Green agenda without a Socialist/Green electoral mandate in the ‘national’ parliament.

Realistically the argument between Nation State/Self Determination v Federal Union can only go one of two ways.

It either inevitably ends up in an armed struggle at some point as shown by numerous examples throughout history.

Or it raises the question does a country without a unanimous wish to remain a sovereign country actually deserve to survive ?. :open_mouth:

As someone with a family link to someone who gave their life for the former I think the Irish example suggests to me the latter.Which is why I’m disillusioned and saddened by the whole process.Having reached the conclusion that the country,like Ireland,as a nation,probably wasn’t/isn’t worth fighting for.Whether it be campaigning for Brexit or dying in the fight against foreign federal rule.It’s my guess that Farage might possibly say something similar on Friday morning if/when we wake up to the reality of Juncker’s Federal dream having won out. :frowning:

In which case the message to the zb wit in campaign will be congratulations you’ve got what you wanted. :unamused:

While if/when the the whole Fedral zb pile breaks down ironically it will more likely be the more volatile Slavic areas that kick off when they realise that they’ve been conned into accepting Merkel’s and Juncker’s etc Eurasian agenda.Good luck with stopping Turkey’s membership in that regard. :unamused:

kcrussell25:

alicks77:
I think the politicians should do as the result says. If the outcome is so bad that they are willing to over rule the result then they should not have held a referendum.

They thought they would win comfortably so it was a pr exercise! They never thought it would happen to worry about overruling

What a surprise Socialists/Federalist acting true to form.

Great impose EU Federal rule against a large scale wish in the country to retain its nation state status and sovereignty.What could possibly go wrong. :unamused:

ezydriver:

alicks77:
30bn wiped off shares today in 10 hrs supposedly down to Brexit fears. That’s 3.5 times annual cost of EU membership. 10 hrs.

A lot of that may be people selling, only to buy back when they drop, and to watch them rise again. That’s one way markets get played.

That’s not how it works, the FTSE lost 100Bn in a week, the loss on the continent is another 700Bn, the Yen and Gold at a 2 year high, the FTSE looking to drop into the 5800’s and the Pounds flirting with sub 1.40 against the dollar and flirting with the high against the euro from 2014. All of that in a matter of a week.

This is money lost by mainly insurance companies banks and pension funds, the pensions of millions haven’t made any return this year and from all these large investors, investors who in the majority are in it for the long run they are now all parking their cash into safe havens, Bunds went negative earlier this week, the investors are paying the German government to hold their cash.

Implied volatility of the pound versus the euro is higher now then it was in 2008, against the dollar it is just short of the high, in plain English the market is pricing in a larger drop then we saw during the financial crisis.

All this means that there is less money available to invest in schools, hospitals, infrastructure etc. It also means that if they get a negative return on their investments, they will have to make up for it in other ways, so increased insurance premiums, increased pension fees, less contributions into pensions, largers deficits, less investments into what we all need, increased mortgage rates no capital investments, less money available for companies to grow, hire and increase pay.

The BOE was very clear today, expect something worse then we saw during the financial crisis and for it to last longer.

Leaving the EU now would be catastrophic. If you don’t have a mortgage, aren’t renting, aren’t looking to sell your house in the next few years, aren’t buying anything from abroad, don’t worry about inflation, don’t mind paying more for UK goods and services, don’t mind a paycut or at least can do without a raise for a few years, don’t worry about investments in your local schools and hospitals, don’t worry about severe benefits cut, have no pension, don’t mind an increase in your insurances, don’t plan a holiday abroad, don’t mind a rise in VAT, don’t mind to pay more for fuel, then an exit would be OK for you.

wheelnutt:

ezydriver:

alicks77:
30bn wiped off shares today in 10 hrs supposedly down to Brexit fears. That’s 3.5 times annual cost of EU membership. 10 hrs.

A lot of that may be people selling, only to buy back when they drop, and to watch them rise again. That’s one way markets get played.

That’s not how it works, the FTSE lost 100Bn in a week, the loss on the continent is another 700Bn, the Yen and Gold at a 2 year high, the FTSE looking to drop into the 5800’s and the Pounds flirting with sub 1.40 against the dollar and flirting with the high against the euro from 2014. All of that in a matter of a week.

This is money lost by mainly insurance companies banks and pension funds, the pensions of millions haven’t made any return this year and from all these large investors, investors who in the majority are in it for the long run they are now all parking their cash into safe havens, Bunds went negative earlier this week, the investors are paying the German government to hold their cash.

Implied volatility of the pound versus the euro is higher now then it was in 2008, against the dollar it is just short of the high, in plain English the market is pricing in a larger drop then we saw during the financial crisis.

All this means that there is less money available to invest in schools, hospitals, infrastructure etc. It also means that if they get a negative return on their investments, they will have to make up for it in other ways, so increased insurance premiums, increased pension fees, less contributions into pensions, largers deficits, less investments into what we all need, increased mortgage rates no capital investments, less money available for companies to grow, hire and increase pay.

The BOE was very clear today, expect something worse then we saw during the financial crisis and for it to last longer.

Leaving the EU now would be catastrophic. If you don’t have a mortgage, aren’t renting, aren’t looking to sell your house in the next few years, aren’t buying anything from abroad, don’t worry about inflation, don’t mind paying more for UK goods and services, don’t mind a paycut or at least can do without a raise for a few years, don’t worry about investments in your local schools and hospitals, don’t worry about severe benefits cut, have no pension, don’t mind an increase in your insurances, don’t plan a holiday abroad, don’t mind a rise in VAT, don’t mind to pay more for fuel, then an exit would be OK for you.

Which translates as the banks are thieving our cash to prop up the inevitable fall out of Brexit on the German economy. :unamused:

As I said you can have your victory the place isn’t worth saving let the slavs sort it out when they realise they’ve been had on the Turkish question.Interesting times ahead in that regard. :open_mouth:

Carryfast:
Which translates as the banks are thieving our cash to prop up the inevitable fall out of Brexit on the German economy. :unamused:

What little fantasy world do you live in?

wheelnutt:
The BOE was very clear today, expect something worse then we saw during the financial crisis and for it to last longer.

A lot of people can expect a bleak future if we remain also. This referendum has us buggered if we do, and buggered if we don’t.

Britain’s membership of the EU could be conceived as the abused in an abusive marriage, whereby it’s led to believe it couldn’t cope without it’s abuser, and then threatened for expressing a desire to leave. Yet, once it finds the courage to break free and divorce, it eventually arises from its deep pain and flourishes, and is bemused as to why it didn’t divorce sooner. We have to think long term. Despite all of us trying, nobody can claim to understand the incomprehensible complexity of this relationship, and all its nuances. The best we can do is to grasp particular angles on it. But most of us are able to zoom out in our minds’ eyes and look back at the broader perspective, and see our previous 40 year’s in historical context. To think of it another way, think of how we know our best mates from school days, and now, 30 years on, we have a historical perspective on their whole lives, marriages included. Then think of the way some of those mates begin expressing regret at marrying, yet carry on as if they’re somehow better off. Think of those same mates who justify, or talk around the utterly dysfunctional aspects of their marriages, or deny the heinous sides to their monstrous wives, whereas you’re able to see these issues objectively, and give solid feedback that reflects a general consensus among other outside observers. Think of how those same mates express fear of losing their awful wives, as if trapped by a perverse marital form of Stockholm Syndrome in which one learn to love their captor. Think of how many drivers stay in jobs they despise because it’s safe, and their income is regular, yet when they actually muster the courage and will to seek other employment, it’s often claimed to be the best decision they made in a long time, and cite unforeseen benefits as to why, such as overtime opportunities, better motors, or even a change of scenery.

The ones closest to a situation are more often than not the very ones who are most blind to it, and this is what I fear most about remainers. They’re stuck in a rut because the status quo seems certain. We need to “change our employer”. Ok, it may be patchy agency work for a while, but not forever. January shall roll into February, and swiftly into March.

.

wheelnutt:

Carryfast:
Which translates as the banks are thieving our cash to prop up the inevitable fall out of Brexit on the German economy. :unamused:

What little fantasy world do you live in?

Obviously the one which calls a spade when I read that our cash is being deposited in German banks for ‘safe keeping’.Or the one which knows a Turkish entry scam being cooked up between Cameron and Merkel when I see it.At which point the present Federalist economic warfare and arm twisting against us will then be transferred to any slavic opposition to it.The message to Dolph being be careful what you wish for. :unamused:

But yes the out campaign has obviously been wiped out not by its justified attempts to get the nation’s governmental sovereignty back but because it’s already totally lost its sovereignty over the economy.IE too late the fight and with it the country was already lost when Heath signed us up to the Kraut scam.

Which just leaves the question of whether the Eurosceptic Cons will at least go out with a fight by taking Cameron and Osborne down.Or hopefully have the sense to leave the treacherous zb’s where they are thereby at least allowing us the pleasure of saying we told you so and letting the slavs do the job of smashing the Federalist zb pile instead.Who on past form will probably do the job properly when they realise Merkel’s Eurasian plan.

Having said that it wouldn’t be the first time that the Brits have chosen country over cash so don’t count your chickens just yet. :bulb: :wink:

Would it be possible to have a vote on trucknet seperating from carryfast? Because that’s him hijacked this one already

wheelnutt:

Carryfast:
Which translates as the banks are thieving our cash to prop up the inevitable fall out of Brexit on the German economy. :unamused:

What little fantasy world do you live in?

A horrible frightening place where everyone is out to get you! Where there’s one man, a white night there to defend us. Where every thing that he says is true because he said it and his knowledge of 1960/70/80 politics and emperor mings dastardly plan.

Also a side question, if it’s 80% to 20% for remain and someone previously said remainers were traitors. Surely it’s the 20% that are going against the majority of the country that are in the wrong.
Not using the word traitor because I believe it’s inappropriate.

alicks77:
if it’s 80% to 20% for remain and someone previously said remainers were traitors. Surely it’s the 20% that are going against the majority of the country that are in the wrong.
Not using the word traitor because I believe it’s inappropriate.

It isn’t rocket science.No one has the right to vote the country out of existence.You’re either a citizen of the country subject to the sovereign rule of that country or zb off.

Country would still exist just you don’t beleive it’s a sovereign state.

You and 27 friends go swimming. Let’s assume you get points (money) for being a good swimmer (worker)
For security and fairness reasons you’re all tied together as you swim.
Some in the group are good at swimming, everyone in the group used to be able to swim, but unfortunately some have forgotten how to because they haven’t needed to for a long time.
There’s also a few in the group who are dead or dying.
The whole sorry band has to be pulled along by the few who are good at swimming.
The ones at the front get tired of working so hard for the benefit of those who are happy to drift along behind.
Some of the more lazy ones are relaxing on lilos but still being pulled along by the few strong swimmers.
The corpses are dragging everyone down.
YOU are one of the strong swimmers, what are you going to do, keep dragging others along or cut yourself free…

Not my list but interesting none the less.

Here are a few that strongly believe the UK should remain a member of the EU:

• Governor of the Bank of England
• International Monetary Fund
• Institute for Fiscal Studies
• Confederation of British Industry
• Leaders/heads of state of every single other member of the EU
• President of the United States of America
• Eight former US Treasury Secretaries
• President of China
• Prime Minister of India
• Prime Minister of Canada
• Prime Minister of Australia
• Prime Minister of Japan
• Prime Minister of New Zealand
• The chief executives of most of the top 100 companies in the UK including Marks and Spencer, BT, Asda, Vodafone, Virgin, IBM, BMW etc.
• Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations
• All living former Prime Ministers of the UK (from both parties)
• Virtually all reputable and recognised economists
• The Prime Minister of the UK
• The leader of the Labour Party
• The Leader of the Liberal Democrats
• The Leader of the Green Party
• The Leader of the Scottish National Party
• The leader of Plaid Cymru
• Leader of Sinn Fein
• Martin Lewis, that money saving dude off the telly
• The Secretary General of the TUC
• Unison
• National Union of Students
• National Union of Farmers
• Stephen Hawking
• Chief Executive of the NHS
• 300 of the most prominent international historians
• Director of Europol
• David Anderson QC, Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation
• Former Directors of GCHQ
• Secretary General of Nato
• Church of England
• Church in Scotland
• Church in Wales
• Friends of the Earth
• Greenpeace
• Director General of the World Trade Organisation
• WWF
• World Bank
• OECD

Here are pretty much the only notable people who think we should leave the EU:

• Boris Johnson, who probably doesn’t really care either way, but knows he’ll become Prime Minister if the country votes to leave
• A former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who carried out a brutal regime of cuts to benefits and essential support for the poorest in society as well as the disabled and sick
• The guy who was Education Secretary and every single teacher in the country hated with a furious passion for the damage he was doing to the education system
• Leader of UKIP
• BNP
• Britain First
• Donald Trump
• Keith Chegwin
• David Icke

turbot:
You and 27 friends go swimming. Let’s assume you get points (money) for being a good swimmer (worker)
For security and fairness reasons you’re all tied together as you swim.
Some in the group are good at swimming, everyone in the group used to be able to swim, but unfortunately some have forgotten how to because they haven’t needed to for a long time.
There’s also a few in the group who are dead or dying.
The whole sorry band has to be pulled along by the few who are good at swimming.
The ones at the front get tired of working so hard for the benefit of those who are happy to drift along behind.
Some of the more lazy ones are relaxing on lilos but still being pulled along by the few strong swimmers.
The corpses are dragging everyone down.
YOU are one of the strong swimmers, what are you going to do, keep dragging others along or cut yourself free…

If they are my friends I would be able to say get off lilos and help. Also if they are friends I don’t leave them behind. And if I was to die least I would be among friends not like the we starving guy wrapped in a union flag remembering how he used to be a great swimmer as he slowly drowns.

alicks77:
Not my list but interesting none the less.

Here are a few that strongly believe the UK should remain a member of the EU:

• Governor of the Bank of England
• International Monetary Fund
• Institute for Fiscal Studies
• Confederation of British Industry
• Leaders/heads of state of every single other member of the EU
• President of the United States of America
• Eight former US Treasury Secretaries
• President of China
• Prime Minister of India
• Prime Minister of Canada
• Prime Minister of Australia
• Prime Minister of Japan
• Prime Minister of New Zealand
• The chief executives of most of the top 100 companies in the UK including Marks and Spencer, BT, Asda, Vodafone, Virgin, IBM, BMW etc.
• Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations
• All living former Prime Ministers of the UK (from both parties)
• Virtually all reputable and recognised economists
• The Prime Minister of the UK
• The leader of the Labour Party
• The Leader of the Liberal Democrats
• The Leader of the Green Party
• The Leader of the Scottish National Party
• The leader of Plaid Cymru
• Leader of Sinn Fein
• Martin Lewis, that money saving dude off the telly
• The Secretary General of the TUC
• Unison
• National Union of Students
• National Union of Farmers
• Stephen Hawking
• Chief Executive of the NHS
• 300 of the most prominent international historians
• Director of Europol
• David Anderson QC, Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation
• Former Directors of GCHQ
• Secretary General of Nato
• Church of England
• Church in Scotland
• Church in Wales
• Friends of the Earth
• Greenpeace
• Director General of the World Trade Organisation
• WWF
• World Bank
• OECD

Here are pretty much the only notable people who think we should leave the EU:

• Boris Johnson, who probably doesn’t really care either way, but knows he’ll become Prime Minister if the country votes to leave
• A former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who carried out a brutal regime of cuts to benefits and essential support for the poorest in society as well as the disabled and sick
• The guy who was Education Secretary and every single teacher in the country hated with a furious passion for the damage he was doing to the education system

So a bunch of global warming believers.That want to add the whole of Europe to their vote to compensate for the electoral mandate they don’t have here.

Bankers with more interest and exposure in the German economy than their own.

A church that’s been infiltrated by Socialism ( which actually supports atheism remember )

A Scottish Socialist Party masquerading as Nationalist

Other assorted Socialist groups like the TUC.See global warmists.

Sinn Fein you know the lot who can do Nationalism when it suits them but not when it doesn’t like respecting the border between Northern and Southern Ireland.Let alone handing over the sovereignty that Irish Nationalists fought and died for to Juncker’s federal zb pile.

Oh and look on the bright side you’ve actually got that heavyweight Blair on your side.

As for IDS didn’t he actually walk away because he could no longer stomach the austerity being imposed by Cameron for him to implement.

As for the unions the thoughts of the leadership don’t necessarily reflect the thoughts of the rank and file.Hence Brown trying to desperately deliver the Labour vote to save Cameron.Just like Blair carried on with Maggie’s legacy.

On that note the TUC and Corbyn supporting this and the CBI on the basis of workers rights you couldn’t make this zb up.

pbs.twimg.com/media/CkDjvq8WgAA1zmu.jpg

As I said don’t count your chickens yet. :unamused:

You say global warmist? Does that mean full of hot air making earth average temperature rise causing climate change. Or he believes like most of the world in climate change?

Just for clarification purposes.

alicks77:
Here are pretty much the only notable people who think we should leave the EU:

• Boris Johnson, who probably doesn’t really care either way, but knows he’ll become Prime Minister if the country votes to leave
• A former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who carried out a brutal regime of cuts to benefits and essential support for the poorest in society as well as the disabled and sick
• The guy who was Education Secretary and every single teacher in the country hated with a furious passion for the damage he was doing to the education system
• Leader of UKIP
• BNP
• Britain First
• Donald Trump
• Keith Chegwin
• David Icke

There are a number of entrepreneurial billionaires on this list too.