Winseer:
Bearing in mind that this issue of Brexit has us divided not over traditional Party Lines - I still have yet to hear any arguments for “Why are so many keen to Remain” other than “Fear of Change”, or “Afraid of Losing Rights” or even “Afraid of losing job/prospects/other”.
Nobody is afraid of change when it is significantly for the better. When did you see a person last promised a straightforward uplift in their rate of pay (without any change in pay structure), and they responded “no thankyou, I’d rather stay on the current rates to which I have become sentimentally accustomed”?
Whenever people are accused of “fear of change”, it is always by those who threaten changes for the worst, or want to rearrange the deckchairs of established practice.
Surely by this point 23 months on - we must realize that the sky didn’t fall on our head in those past 23 months, nor will it likely do so in the future…?
Because firstly, nothing has really happened yet, and to the extent that people are relaxing a bit, it’s only because the Tories’ narrative seems to have lost traction under the weight of it’s own contradictions and blatant malignancy.
The fishermen have been cut loose. The farmers have thought again, now that they realise that leaving the EU will mean the total loss of their subsidies (rather than the British government running its own scheme that mirrors that of the EU), and it will also mean low-road competition from the US (if the Tories get their way with free-trade deals) - so they’re clearly going to get fed through the mill.
The blue passports were an appeal to the chauvinistic element of the Brexiteers - until it was made clear that we can have blue passports even if we stay in, and the Tories went and handed the production contract to a French firm. A red, white, and blue Brexit indeed - British passports manufactured across the water under the French flag. And for half the price by French workers who, some captains of industry have said in the past, are the laziest and highest-paid industrial workers in the world (the reality being that they can afford to be lazy and high-paid, because their unions, industrial policies, and left-wing culture force bosses to invest capital in creating higher hourly productivity).
Then there is Liam Fox sailing the high seas in search of new trade deals - sternly rebuked by the Indian government, who told him to go away and come back when he was willing to offer free movement of workers with India, a proposal that if accepted would leave any working class Brexiteer blowing steam from their ears.
And we see the brutal reality of immigration policy. Not the “illegal immigrants” which exist in the public imagination being “sent back”, but British and commonwealth citizens seized by heavies in the middle of the night and packed off to Timbuktu, having spent 50 or 60 years paying their dues and participating in British life and community, and many more pushed to the edge of death and beyond by the fear and strain.
And then there is the blatant sleaze and dishonesty of the Tories personally, insisting on austerity for the working class whilst easily slamming £1bn on the table just to buy votes, and then for corporations and the wealthy cutting taxes which were already at historical lows. Not a week goes by without them being found to be lying, and blatantly so. The right-wing Murdoch press has lost trust with and influence over the public. People have woken up to the idea that they are being lied to all the time. Even staunch Tories like Andrew Neil, the wider Tory diaspora in public life, can’t stomach the lies.
And the Tories’ main prize of forging a neoliberal trade deal with the US (after the TTIP agreement with the EU foundered in the face of opposition and irreconcilable differences), was first ■■■-poohed by Obama, and has been even more fundamentally confounded since by the election of an American president who is widely loathed and himself determined to play economic hardball with all trading partners. And even the business community is not willing to forfeit relations with their main market (the EU) as the price of the mere hope value of trading elsewhere (hopes that, Liam Fox shows, were clearly not justified).
Then there is the Northern Ireland question. The natural solution for the right-wing political smashers would probably be to slough off NI and either return it to the Republic or create a devolved independent nation. But the Tories are in bed with the DUP whose very reason for being is to prevent such an occurrence, and too many Tories would take to the airwaves and seek to bring down the government at this suggestion, bearing in mind that most of the liberal media is now to the left of the Tories.
Then there is the EU negotiating strategy. The right-wing Brexiteers really seemed to think that the whole edifice was going to crash down if they poked it. In reality, the EU27 have united against their common enemy. They have made it clear there will be no undercutting, no driving down of taxes and regulations, otherwise they’ll slap tariffs on us. And they’ve made it clear that their institutions will still be the ones to adjudicate on mattes of citizen’s rights and compliance with EU law.
I’m already exhausted considering all these examples, and I can’t even bring myself to draw the key themes in them together - I suppose they stand adequately on their own.
The bottom line is, right-wing Brexit looks like it’s probably a busted flush so long as the current pressure against it is maintained, and the political wind is blowing left now that the Labour party offers that alternative - even business leaders are moving left, not just because of their own consciences and their own fears of more radical social and economic disruption (from both left and right), but because they’re sick of dysfunctional competition (particularly now that workers at the bottom are simply becoming too poor to bear any further attacks), sick of austerity (even mainstays of the professional classes like doctors, lawyers, teachers, senior civil servants, and so on are being attacked), sick of falling productivity, sick of slack growth, and their own thinkers and institutions (the LSE, the IMF, the billionaire philanthropists, etc.) are telling them that the state needs to be marshalled in order to do something about it.
So I’m quietly confident that the momentum of movement toward the abyss is being lost, and that if a Brexit is delivered, it’s not going to look anything like what the right-wingers wanted.
I would conclude that the Remainers are confident that they can dig deep into the pile of those people that didn’t vote at all in the referendum, plus those immigrants that have come here since, let alone were here beforehand, and didn’t vote.
Which immigrants - are you under the impression that anyone other than resident British citizens (and a tiny minority of ex-pats) were entitled to vote in the referendum?
And which people who didn’t vote? The turnout was extremely high by any modern standard, and most of those who didn’t vote were probably as likely to be latent Brexiteers as Remainers.
Once again, I’ll ask the questions of Remainers: “What did you think you’d lose” or “Why do you believe that a UK outside of EU control would be a bad thing”?
Most of us don’t perceive that we are under a great deal of EU control. Even bugbears for the left like competition laws, were not introduced without the consent of the UK - our centre-right governments, voted in by much the same electorate as voted for Brexit, favoured those policies.
And bugbears for some of the working class like immigration (and I concede the grievance is legitimate so far as it concerns work and wages), were not forced upon us by the EU - on the contrary, the EU had significant transitional controls available when the Eastern European members were admitted, which the Blair government (alone, amongst the entire rest of the EU) decided not to make use of. So we had control in the EU, and our elected government used that control to intentionally accept more migration than we had to.
And non-EU immigration is and always has been under our control - the Tories dishonestly promise to cut it, and then don’t because the implication will be to increase wages and improve conditions for people like cleaners, factory workers, and elderly care home carers, and the Tories are implacably opposed to wages going up like so.
We’re not going to be losing any “human rights” - that was never on the cards.
Don’t kid yourself. Scapegoating is one of the main tools in the armoury of far-right governments, to get the working class to accept attacks upon themselves and as a way of deflecting and blowing off their anger which would otherwise be directed at those responsible in government. That’s why the Tories hate it, and why the Murdoch press attacks it relentlessly.
It’s like health and safety. The easiest way for tin-pot small businessmen to set up on a shoestring and undercut reputable firms who do things safely and reliably and invest in proper tools and procedures, or for stroppy managers even in large firms to avoid increasing budgets and making investments, is to force your own workers (or the general public) into taking risks with life and limb, and then throw the broken bodies on the streets when workers are injured or killed as a result (leaving the state to clean up the mess of families deprived of mothers and fathers who are wage-earners, or taking care of people who need intensive care and support for the rest of their lives). That’s why bosses always rail against such “red tape”.
We are not going to collapse economically - That implies we were making a boatload of money out of being in the EU, when the exact opposite is, was, and will continue to be the case.
The exact opposite is not the case. The EU is one of the main markets that provides scale for our industry. The economy would undoubtedly collapse if EU trade disappeared altogether, but of course even if we returned to WTO terms, it would only cause an economic penalty, not an economic collapse.
You should discard this idea that the EU is bleeding us white. It isn’t. We are one of the richest nations on the globe - in the top 10 by any measure, and in the top 5 by some measures. Our roads are not full of potholes and our hospital corridors lined with stretchers because of the EU, but because we are not paying enough tax as a nation, and because we keep electing national governments who are quite open about their intention to attack public services and infrastructure - “austerity” and “efficiency savings”, they call it. If you don’t want it, stop voting for parties that promise it.
House price collapse, Interest rate spike, Runaway inflation, NHS deprived of staff - well, if that was going to ever happen - doesn’t anyone think that it should have happened already by this point?
I don’t expect those things (to any degree that would be considered a crisis beyond control), but even if they were going to happen, they would not have happened yet because nothing has been done yet on Brexit.
It’s one thing for the EU to screw as much money as possible out of the British People, but when it comes to “unwanted wars against third parties” - What then?
Imagine being called to arms to "We must send a peacekeeping force into East Ukraine to take it back for our friends in Kiev from their former Russian Masters. Many of you will die, - but it’s for a good cause! Sign up today!"
Even Leftists that support the notion of Remain - might find that kind of scerario put upon them hard to swallow eh?
Oh no. You can’t say "I’m a pacifist Leftist, I ain’t fighting in no war." If you want allegiance to the EU, which is what you want when you say “I’m a ■■■■■■■■ Remainer”, then Yes Bud. That’s the price you will have to ultimately pay. Drafted. Called up. Draft dodgers lose their benefits.
Of course, champagne socialists don’t have anything at all to worry about. It’s just the ordinary folk that are expected to bleed and die, but this time - for a cause that is not just “not theirs”, but a cause that we’re not even on the correct side of history on!
But the British have had one of the most belligerent foreign policies in the EU! The French asked for evidence on Skripal, while the Tories lied to the public about the evidence they had. It wasn’t Germany that forced us into Iraq or Afghanistan. I’m not saying other nations are invariably less belligerent than the UK, but it’s false to characterise them as more belligerent than our own government has been. When did the Germans last get a bloody nose in a foreign campaign? When did the French? When did Sweden? When did Italy? In general they have only had any involvement whatsoever in campaigns driven by the UK and the US.