How Close Has It Come

[winseer]

Franglais:

Nite Owl:

Harry Monk:
I don’t personally know anybody affected by it, but as there are 25,120 confirmed cases and the UK population is around 68,000,000 then only 0.04% of the population have tested positive for it and only 0.0026% of the population have died from it(1,781 deaths) so statistically speaking I suppose it is more unlikely than likely that I would.

I’m another one who doesnt understand the reaction because of the numbers. I dare say at the end of it we’ll be told it wasnt as bad as they though because of the actions that were taken.

Try this.
Do nothing: COVID 19 could take out 1%, that’s over 500,000.
Lock down about 20,000 deaths?
.
Still trying to get a handle on the numbers? 500,000 is more than the total number of combined military and civilian war deaths in the UK and Crown Colonies from the whole of the 1939-1945.
Do nowt, and all the WW2 deaths concentrated in about a year.

Some “Uncle Albert” wisdom there.
I would draw attention to paraphrasing something more along the lines of what Stalin said…
“The numbers mean nothing. How you count those numbers - mean everything.”
"

Only Fools and Horses | Rodney's Counter-Worry (During the 1939...)

[winseer]

Nite Owl:

Franglais:

Nite Owl:

Harry Monk:
I don’t personally know anybody affected by it, but as there are 25,120 confirmed cases and the UK population is around 68,000,000 then only 0.04% of the population have tested positive for it and only 0.0026% of the population have died from it(1,781 deaths) so statistically speaking I suppose it is more unlikely than likely that I would.

I’m another one who doesnt understand the reaction because of the numbers. I dare say at the end of it we’ll be told it wasnt as bad as they though because of the actions that were taken.

Try this.
Do nothing: COVID 19 could take out 1%, that’s over 500,000.
Lock down about 20,000 deaths?
.
Still trying to get a handle on the numbers? 500,000 is more than the total number of combined military and civilian war deaths in the UK and Crown Colonies from the whole of the 1939-1945.
Do nowt, and all the WW2 deaths concentrated in about a year.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, looking back to the start of the 2009 swine flu panic:

theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul … se-britain

"Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die from swine flu if the pandemic achieves it worst possible potential, the government warned today.

The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed."

Estimated 65,000 deaths at the start, real figure 138 deaths from over 500,000 cases.

nhs.uk/news/cancer/swine-fl … -examined/

“This was a well-conducted investigation into all deaths in England attributed to swine flu up to November 2009. It found that there were 138 deaths from an estimated 540,000 cases, or around 26 deaths per 100,000 people.”

Now, excuse the coldness of this next part, how many of these coronavirus deaths would have happened anyway? There are an extra 30,000 - 40,000 deaths every winter anyway.

fullfact.org/online/Excess-winter-deaths-UK/

"The number of excess deaths estimated in 2018/19 is less than half the number in 2017/18 (even if you just look at Great Britain). However, it is common to have large fluctuations in the estimated number of excess winter deaths between years. To account for this discrepancy, it is preferable to use the average of all estimates over the last five years. In Great Britain, the average number of excess winter deaths over the last five years was 39,142.

Excess winter deaths are calculated as the difference in the number of deaths over three months of winter compared to the three months before and after this period"

^^^^^^ THAT’S more like it!

Maybe this is one of the times where we’ll only know the truth, after the event.

…There’s a good chance we’ll not be knowing the truth even after this event, any more than we know quite everything that happened in the 1939-1945 conflict…
Stealing neighbors pets to eat, casually murdering German Neighbors, or as John Reginald Christi done - “Kill women, and leave their bodies in bombed-out houses during the blitz, so everyone thinks the germans got them, rather than him…” A lot of unsavoury goings-on of which we only ever got told of the “tip of the iceberg” with regards to…

[basket_case]

Harry Monk:
I don’t personally know anybody affected by it, but as there are 25,120 confirmed cases and the UK population is around 68,000,000 then only 0.04% of the population have tested positive for it and only 0.0026% of the population have died from it(1,781 deaths) so statistically speaking I suppose it is more unlikely than likely that I would.

Harry you are quite correct on your statistical analysis of the published facts, but you have not factored in that the only known cases in the uk are the ones that have been tested are the cases admitted to hospital. in other countries they are saying that between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20 cases end up in hospital and the rest have mild cases not requiring hospitalization.
so there could be between 226,350 and 477,850 cases self isolating our at work not knowing they have got the virus.

[franglais]

Nite Owl:

Franglais:

Nite Owl:

Harry Monk:
I don’t personally know anybody affected by it, but as there are 25,120 confirmed cases and the UK population is around 68,000,000 then only 0.04% of the population have tested positive for it and only 0.0026% of the population have died from it(1,781 deaths) so statistically speaking I suppose it is more unlikely than likely that I would.

I’m another one who doesnt understand the reaction because of the numbers. I dare say at the end of it we’ll be told it wasnt as bad as they though because of the actions that were taken.

Try this.
Do nothing: COVID 19 could take out 1%, that’s over 500,000.
Lock down about 20,000 deaths?
.
Still trying to get a handle on the numbers? 500,000 is more than the total number of combined military and civilian war deaths in the UK and Crown Colonies from the whole of the 1939-1945.
Do nowt, and all the WW2 deaths concentrated in about a year.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, looking back to the start of the 2009 swine flu panic:

theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul … se-britain

"Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die from swine flu if the pandemic achieves it worst possible potential, the government warned today.

The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed."

Estimated 65,000 deaths at the start, real figure 138 deaths from over 500,000 cases.

nhs.uk/news/cancer/swine-fl … -examined/

“This was a well-conducted investigation into all deaths in England attributed to swine flu up to November 2009. It found that there were 138 deaths from an estimated 540,000 cases, or around 26 deaths per 100,000 people.”

Now, excuse the coldness of this next part, how many of these coronavirus deaths would have happened anyway? There are an extra 30,000 - 40,000 deaths every winter anyway.

fullfact.org/online/Excess-winter-deaths-UK/

"The number of excess deaths estimated in 2018/19 is less than half the number in 2017/18 (even if you just look at Great Britain). However, it is common to have large fluctuations in the estimated number of excess winter deaths between years. To account for this discrepancy, it is preferable to use the average of all estimates over the last five years. In Great Britain, the average number of excess winter deaths over the last five years was 39,142.

Excess winter deaths are calculated as the difference in the number of deaths over three months of winter compared to the three months before and after this period"

Maybe this is one of the times where we’ll only know the truth, after the event.

It might not be wise, but let’s try…
.
The projections clearly stated a worst case scenario. Happily due to preventative actions that was avoided.
If you’re driving fast towards a sharp bend, and are warned to slow, or else you’ll crash; you slow, and avoid the crash. Do you now say the warning to slow was unnecessary?
.
If the projections are of COVID 19 deaths, then they aren’t due to hypothermia or slipping on icy roads. Is that so difficult?.
.
Would some of those victims of COVID 19 have died from something else?
I suspect all who survive will die of something else later.
If some one is killed in an avoidable road accident do you think it doesn’t matter because they will die of summat else later?
.

[winseer]

" If you’re driving fast towards a sharp bend, and are warned to slow, or else you’ll crash; you slow, and avoid the crash. Do you now say the warning to slow was unnecessary? "

Don’t forget that if you’re a crap driver, you’ll still manage to spin off @ 5mph, whereas a driving god would be able to take that bend @ the full ton, and go around it like Tron to no harm coming to them whatsoever.

[the_nodding_donkey]

Basket case:

Harry Monk:
I don’t personally know anybody affected by it, but as there are 25,120 confirmed cases and the UK population is around 68,000,000 then only 0.04% of the population have tested positive for it and only 0.0026% of the population have died from it(1,781 deaths) so statistically speaking I suppose it is more unlikely than likely that I would.

Harry you are quite correct on your statistical analysis of the published facts, but you have not factored in that the only known cases in the uk are the ones that have been tested are the cases admitted to hospital. in other countries they are saying that between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20 cases end up in hospital and the rest have mild cases not requiring hospitalization.
so there could be between 226,350 and 477,850 cases self isolating our at work not knowing they have got the virus.

Yeah, but until they start wholesale testing they have no idea either way. All predictions at the moment are at best guess work.

They also need to test for antibodies, to determine how many people have had it since December, and thus how many will get it, but not die. Without all the figures, all we have are a few isolated figures, which prove nothing either way.

[dieseldog999]

Harry Monk:
I don’t personally know anybody affected by it, but as there are 25,120 confirmed cases and the UK population is around 68,000,000 then only 0.04% of the population have tested positive for it and only 0.0026% of the population have died from it(1,781 deaths) so statistically speaking I suppose it is more unlikely than likely that I would.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
+1
i would imagine if you subtract the number of deaths actually due to covid alone would be extremely tiny seeing as most deaths have been from people on the road out anyway with all the underlying symptoms waiting on something or anything to top them off.
personally i know nobody who has it or even knows anyone with it never mind ■■■■■■■ it from it.
possibly its just another spin off from the 10000 soldiers from around the world the government have invited in to play at war games for a month in case the lockdown kicks off though id imagine there would be plenty of soldier greeblies being brought in with them no matter where they play.

[nite_owl]

Franglais:
It might not be wise, but let’s try…
.
The projections clearly stated a worst case scenario. Happily due to preventative actions that was avoided.

That’s a very easy statement to make and I’m reminded very much of the “millennium bug” scare from 20 years ago. Of course, nothing much happened, but is that because of all the “preventative” work done or because it was all a panic over hypothetical? What will be interesting is to compare our situation with, say, Sweden, who havent put a fraction of policies in place that we have.

If you’re driving fast towards a sharp bend, and are warned to slow, or else you’ll crash; you slow, and avoid the crash. Do you now say the warning to slow was unnecessary?

Let’s take that a little bit further. Is a warning about peoples behaviour necessary or do you trust them to apply common sense? Maybe if enough people cant be relied upon to use common sense, a warning can be put in place. If enough people ignore the warning sign, perhaps a speed bump will encourage them to slow down. Surely as a last resort you can shut the road and guarantee that nobody else will crash on this bend. This might do wonders for the accident statistics, and if it was a minor, barely used route, people would be happy with that. However, if this was a major trunk route that carried many vehicles, closing it might well be overkill.
.
If the projections are of COVID 19 deaths, then they aren’t due to hypothermia or slipping on icy roads. Is that so difficult?.

This statement reminds me of the oft publicised accident statistics. Speeding is responsible for ■■% of collisions on our roads. But how many of these collision involve someone who is drunk/using a phone/ falling asleep/ etc. but to promote the message that’s wanted, selected information only is put forward. The vast majority of fatalities so far have involved people with underlying health issues. The obvious question that I’ve not seen answered is: how serious were these underlying health issues?
.
Would some of those victims of COVID 19 have died from something else?
I suspect all who survive will die of something else later.

In this life, only death and taxes are certain, unless you’re on agency of course.

If some one is killed in an avoidable road accident do you think it doesn’t matter because they will die of summat else later?

If someone suffering from coronavirus died in a car crash, how would that death be recorded? Are they a corona virus survivor or did they die of coronavirus? It’s the (real or imagined) massaging of the data to present a certain version of events that concerns me.

.

Like I said above, only after this event will we really have enough information to know if everything we did was correct and proportional. I’m currently self isolating for 12 weeks and unfortunately only in receipt of ssp. I’m burning through my savings and at the end of the three months will have next to nothing left. If i went through all this for no good reason, I’m sure you’ll appreciate, I’ll be pretty ■■■■■■■ For obvious reasons, I’d like to know the truth at the earliest opportunity and whilst some of these questions may be unpalatable, they need to be answered.

This is still a free society and those who govern us are accountable for their actions.

[trucking_sideways]

Franglais:

Nite Owl:

Harry Monk:
I don’t personally know anybody affected by it, but as there are 25,120 confirmed cases and the UK population is around 68,000,000 then only 0.04% of the population have tested positive for it and only 0.0026% of the population have died from it(1,781 deaths) so statistically speaking I suppose it is more unlikely than likely that I would.

I’m another one who doesnt understand the reaction because of the numbers. I dare say at the end of it we’ll be told it wasnt as bad as they though because of the actions that were taken.

Try this.
Do nothing: COVID 19 could take out 1%, that’s over 500,000.
Lock down about 20,000 deaths?
.
Still trying to get a handle on the numbers? 500,000 is more than the total number of combined military and civilian war deaths in the UK and Crown Colonies from the whole of the 1939-1945.
Do nowt, and all the WW2 deaths concentrated in about a year.

With good medical treatment etc it’s ESTIMATED to be a 1% CFR. However when hospitals are over run which they would be if nothing was done then the 15% that have a bit of oxygen for a couple of days and go home would deteriorate and die. If we did nothing we would be looking at between 10-20% case fatality rate. Plus all other medical problems that would be left to die.

This is what Boris was educated on which forced his change of tact. Also, if the low IQ among the population observed social distancing and didn’t think the school close down were a bank holiday weekend we wouldn’t have been grounded as hard as we were.

Boris was playing what we call in the Army “big boys rules”.

[robroy]

pierrot 14:

Winseer:
Any other first three months of the year - a lot of us could expect to lose frail and/or elderly relatives in the very damp and mild winter we’ve just had…
Bronchitus, Pneumonia, and Bronchial-Pneumonia - took two of my grandparents away in their 80’s.
We didn’t call it “Coronavirus” back then…
We called it “Natural Causes after a germful mild winter”…

I remember us not being very chuffed with the so-called Hospital Care standard either… Bed Sores were common, and Matron was already gone by this point, having been replaced by “Nursing Officers” who used to sit in the day room and make the entire night shift a nice long smoke break… My Mum chucked her job in as an auxillary nurse in this toxic environment… Staff nurses ended up doing all the dirty work, Ward Sisters were frequently off sick, and SENs were leaving in droves to work for private hospitals.

I’m wondering if the NHS is about to get a kick up the backside it’ll never forget - the Coronavirus merely a “Cover Story”, true in that it does actually exist, but false in the exaggerated extent of it.

If I’m wrong - there will be over a million people in this country die of it in April.

Please don’t slag me off for having this opinion - unless and until I’m proven wrong however.

OH FLUCK another bundle of joy, with a political twist !!!

Reckon I see your point pierrot, there are definitely one or two on here who weirdly and bizarrely appear to be enjoying all this just a little too much with their numerous posts about it stirring up the pot…

[albion]

Looking at the pictures and death rates coming out of Italy and Spain and I am taking it seriously.

Friends brother in law died, 60, no underlying health conditions.

[harry_monk]

albion:
Looking at the pictures and death rates coming out of Italy and Spain and I am taking it seriously.

Friends brother in law died, 60, no underlying health conditions.

There is no doubt a very nasty virus going around, and there are no doubt a considerable number of fatalities, although with a few exceptions these have almost exclusively been among those who were near the end of their natural lifespan or who had serious underlying health issues.

That’s not to say that it isn’t sad for those affected but with the inevitable near-destruction of the economy caused by the shutdown and the equally enormous societal problems we will have to face, possibly for generations as a result, I really do think we are seriously in contravention of the ancient truism “Burn not your house to fright the mouse away”.

[franglais]

Harry Monk:

albion:
Looking at the pictures and death rates coming out of Italy and Spain and I am taking it seriously.

Friends brother in law died, 60, no underlying health conditions.

There is no doubt a very nasty virus going around, and there are no doubt a considerable number of fatalities, although with a few exceptions these have almost exclusively been among those who were near the end of their natural lifespan or who had serious underlying health issues.

That’s not to say that it isn’t sad for those affected but with the inevitable near-destruction of the economy caused by the shutdown and the equally enormous societal problems we will have to face, possibly for generations as a result, I really do think we are seriously in contravention of the ancient truism “Burn not your house to fright the mouse away”.

“Almost exclusively among those near the end of their life span, or with underlying issues”?
Any figures and sources for that?
.
Yes I’ve seen reports that those older or ill are more susceptible, but “Almost exclusively”? Are you sure?
.

[harry_monk]

Franglais:
Any figures and sources for that?

Yes I’ve seen reports that those older or ill are more susceptible, but “Almost exclusively”? Are you sure?

ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f … 9c7f706553

“To date, the vast majority of those who have died from Covid-19 in Britain have been aged 70 or older or had serious pre-existing health conditions”.

[harry_monk]

swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

"According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.

Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women".

[harry_monk]

“The only way to fight the plague is honesty”

[franglais]

Harry Monk:
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

"According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.

Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women".

Thanks, Harry.
Looking at SWPRS… I’m too tight to give the FT my money!

[franglais]

SWPRS?
No thank you.

[harry_monk]

Franglais:
SWPRS?
No thank you.

How about Statista?

statista.com/statistics/110 … -in-italy/

[3_wheeler]

dozy:
Spent most of the week coughing , had the [zb] , but have been frozen not hot , but not really felt ill , afaik no-one in Grantham has been diagnosed with it so not sure as my Mrs
Believes how I’d of got it , unless it was from week before I packed up
Other than that no no-0ne with it
Nb daughter is nurse & there are wards with folks with covid dieing at her hospital ,
I’m guessing that’s big3 angle , is this really as bad as there making out , in mine & my Mrs isolated ( well mostly ) world no
Talk to daughter , it’s real & no joke , people are dieing of it

You are not correct Pal, the guy who owns the hot tub place at Gonerby moor has died and there 133 in Lincolnshire been tested positive