Autonomous

Carryfast:

UKtramp:

Conor:
At least a decade away from the UK due to the issues they’re having resolving not working in fog, snow or heavy rain. No doubt all of us who drive the newer DAF CFs with all the toys have witnessed the dash fill with yellow warning lights of this sensor not working, that not working, this turned off and that turned off as a result every time its snowed enough to give a light covering of the front of the wagon or its been raining heavy and there is a lot of spray from other vehicles? Seems that is a problem they can’t overcome at the moment.

And you are speaking from what exactly? You have come on here spouting your drivel about what you have read and have no experience of whatsoever. You speak like you know this. Please elaborate on your experience that you feel you may offer this amazing piece of knowledge?

What we do know is that computers can’t outperform humans when it comes to the fine inputs needed to take off or land a plane in anything more than perfect calm conditions and usually more aggro than its worth in most other cases.So what makes the nerds think that they’d be any better in driving anything.Oh wait maybe that explains why the only robot trains are limited to the DLR and we’re seeing ever increasing reductions and dumbing down of the road speed regime because they know that the robots won’t be able to handle anything going much faster than a crawl on the ground.Let alone the knife edged 3 d aspects of flying a plane in anything much more than a totally straight line at height where there’s enough room to correct its zb ups.Although even then unless it’s the Air France 447 type of example. :unamused:

Your a lot behind there it’s the same principle on planes the pilot is only there for take off and landing the computer looks after everything else
Also auto pilot can land but not take off

Dr Damon:

Carryfast:
What we do know is that computers can’t outperform humans when it comes to the fine inputs needed to take off or land a plane in anything more than perfect calm conditions and usually more aggro than its worth in most other cases.So what makes the nerds think that they’d be any better in driving anything.Oh wait maybe that explains why the only robot trains are limited to the DLR and we’re seeing ever increasing reductions and dumbing down of the road speed regime because they know that the robots won’t be able to handle anything going much faster than a crawl on the ground.Let alone the knife edged 3 d aspects of flying a plane in anything much more than a totally straight line at height where there’s enough room to correct its zb ups.Although even then unless it’s the Air France 447 type of example. :unamused:

Oh yes they can. You are living in the dark ages fella.

Really.So why aren’t we already seeing auto take off/land being used routinely in the case of aircraft and driver less trains used on the majority of,if not all,rail operations and autonomous ships ?.Let alone autonomous road vehicles.

Also seems strange why the establishment suddenly sees autonomous trucks and cars as good but human controlled ones as nasty juggernauts and a danger to the planet that should be taken off the road.IE if it looks and sounds like a bunch of control freak office nerds,who want to remove the enjoyment of driving for those who like it and/or are just jealous of the job of a driver then it probably is.On that note,as I’ve said,I doubt if freedom of choice in all this is part of their agenda.Which will answer that question once and for all. :imp:

We will see totally autonomous HGV`s very soon, in our life time.
Humans are no longer fit for purpose.

att:
We will see totally autonomous HGV`s very soon, in our life time.
Humans are no longer fit for purpose.

That depends on how old you Are!!! :laughing:

Something humans have that computers don’t, gut instinct. How many times have you looked at a vehicle and just known they’re going to do something stupid? Personally, I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve eased off, changed lanes or whatever because I’ve not trusted someone. Usually, I’m proven right.

nightline:
Your a lot behind there it’s the same principle on planes the pilot is only there for take off and landing the computer looks after everything else
Also auto pilot can land but not take off

The question is why aren’t the majority of if not all take offs and landings made under auto pilot ?.Especially in the case of unfavourable wind conditions on landing for example.In which case if a computer can’t handle all the inputs needed for that then how can it possibly handle all the inputs needed to safely drive a truck around the road network and among other traffic.

The reality is we’re being sold an expensive,dangerous and potentially economically catastrophic lemon,for the industry and those who work in it,by a bunch of dodgy nerds.Who have a financial and whatever other ‘interests’ in pretending that a computer is as good as the human brain when it comes to the planning and processing abilities needed to drive things properly.Who are also taking advantage,of the unrepresentative example of people who can’t/won’t use that ability.All to further the aim of fixing something that isn’t broke,by replacing a superior bio control system with inferior artificial intelligence,for their own agenda and gain.With drivers acting like turkeys voting for Christmas by going along with the agenda like sheep.

bgr.com/2016/02/27/power-of-the- … -computer/

In addition to others who are trying to re invent the wheel by going back to the inferior idea of EV’s.Instead of superior ICE which rightly won out over EV’s more than a century ago.

att:
We will see totally autonomous HGV`s very soon, in our life time.
Humans are no longer fit for purpose.

My favourite illustration of which side of the equation becomes surplus to requirements when automation takes over, is the concept of driverless dodgems.

With the human purpose removed (fun, in this case), it is the machine itself that becomes worthless, not the humans that used to build and operate them.

The automated future is not one in which humans become redundant, it is one in which consumer goods cost nothing, because currently it is human labour that causes them to have a cost in the first place, and provides the means (via wages) to purchase them.

Captain Caveman 76:

att:
We will see totally autonomous HGV`s very soon, in our life time.
Humans are no longer fit for purpose.

That depends on how old you Are!!! :laughing:

Something humans have that computers don’t, gut instinct. How many times have you looked at a vehicle and just known they’re going to do something stupid? Personally, I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve eased off, changed lanes or whatever because I’ve not trusted someone. Usually, I’m proven right.

Or more technically, it is the ability to conceive the goals of the activity, and devise and implement the practical steps which make ends meet, which humans (individually and collectively) possess and machines lack.

It is only by having an understanding about the goals of driving, and a familiarity with the steps of driving, that one is put in a position to perceive that another driver is driving badly or lacks competence.

Computers are just complex abacuses, a tool that humans devise, and decide when and where to apply. Like the Gatling gun.

nightline:
Your a lot behind there it’s the same principle on planes the pilot is only there for take off and landing the computer looks after everything else
Also auto pilot can land but not take off

Actually it doesn’t do either without two people supervising it! :laughing:

The only person to have been eliminated from the cockpit is the engineer who used to perform calculations and make auxiliary measurements. Much like the fireman has been eliminated from the footplate of the train.

The irreducible part is always human supervision to ensure that the machine is doing what it’s supposed to do in an uncontrolled environment.

The only time when machines are left loosely unsupervised is when humans have controlled the environment sufficiently that only the controlled environment itself needs to be supervised (like a factory gate).

Human operators are absolutely crucial to the introduction of autonomous systems.

The greatest barrier to widespread introduction of, in this case, trucks - is the reputational risk to the first MegaCorp to introduce it in the case of teething problems, which there will be. Teething problems for autonomous vehicles means people getting killed and maimed… people getting killed and maimed by robots is not a problem, the problem is the damage that the news of it does to MegaCorps share price.

The solution to the problem is to insert a breakaway link in the chain- a human to blame. It’s win-win - every accident let’s you make your product better and every accident increases the public clamour for fully autonomous vehicles.

The only losers are the drivers, and that’s their own fault for being born to plebs, if they’d had the foresight to be born to decent, rich folk, they wouldn’t be in this mess.

slowlane:
Human operators are absolutely crucial to the introduction of autonomous systems.

The greatest barrier to widespread introduction of, in this case, trucks - is the reputational risk to the first MegaCorp to introduce it in the case of teething problems, which there will be. Teething problems for autonomous vehicles means people getting killed and maimed… people getting killed and maimed by robots is not a problem, the problem is the damage that the news of it does to MegaCorps share price.

The solution to the problem is to insert a breakaway link in the chain- a human to blame. It’s win-win - every accident let’s you make your product better and every accident increases the public clamour for fully autonomous vehicles.

The only losers are the drivers, and that’s their own fault for being born to plebs, if they’d had the foresight to be born to decent, rich folk, they wouldn’t be in this mess.

The unfortunate pilots of Air France 447 being a perfect example of humans being used as scape goats for the failings of auto pilot. :bulb: :frowning:

On that note Alcock and Brown had/needed no auto pilot linked to blocked pitots on the Vimy to do the job that the Airbus 330,with all its expensive,supposedly fool proof,advanced technology,obviously couldn’t.

Rjan:

Captain Caveman 76:

att:
We will see totally autonomous HGV`s very soon, in our life time.
Humans are no longer fit for purpose.

That depends on how old you Are!!! :laughing:

Something humans have that computers don’t, gut instinct. How many times have you looked at a vehicle and just known they’re going to do something stupid? Personally, I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve eased off, changed lanes or whatever because I’ve not trusted someone. Usually, I’m proven right.

Or more technically, it is the ability to conceive the goals of the activity, and devise and implement the practical steps which make ends meet, which humans (individually and collectively) possess and machines lack.

Computers are just complex abacuses, a tool that humans devise, and decide when and where to apply. Like the Gatling gun.

An analogy would be the auto triggering/targeting system of the Gatling gun not recognising friendly forces and needing to be over ridden.

Or another would be a fault in the system and the minder not having a clue how to identify at which point in the system it’s all gone wrong and/or how it’s got into the situation it’s in and how to correct it.

In either case before it wipes out its own side.Which seems to match the circumstances which took out AF 447 at least.That was with two pilots so what chance would one vehicle ‘minder’ have.

While assuming it needs a more intelligent human ‘minder’,with an obviously superior human brain,to stop the robot doing something stupid,then what’s the point of it all.Other than a pointless charity benefit exercise for the over paid nerds,who are designing,marketing and making the expensive equally pointless robots,that we don’t need.When they might as well just let the driver do the job he’s already being paid to do.While assuming full autonomy you can bet that at worse we’ll end up with expensive dangerous anarchy on the roads caused by machines which haven’t got a clue.Or at best Brit drivers ending up on the scrap heap to be replaced by Oriental robot vehicle component manufacturing workers and their employers and a few people making money out of flogging the things.

Carryfast:

Rjan:
Or more technically, it is the ability to conceive the goals of the activity, and devise and implement the practical steps which make ends meet, which humans (individually and collectively) possess and machines lack.

Computers are just complex abacuses, a tool that humans devise, and decide when and where to apply. Like the Gatling gun.

An analogy would be the auto triggering/targeting system of the Gatling gun not recognising friendly forces and needing to be over ridden.

Or deciding the placement of the gun, and the attribution of friendly and enemy status in the first place (as a question that comes prior to recognition of the two sides, once they are pre-supposed to exist).

It is crucial to recognise that humans always remain as the organisers and drivers of the activity. When someone says “computer says no”, what they mean is they say no, or their bosses say no (and they aren’t willing to say no to their bosses).

There isn’t any aspect of life where humans have become subject to the independent agenda of machines, because machines have no independent agenda.

While assuming it needs a more intelligent human ‘minder’,with an obviously superior human brain,to stop the robot doing something stupid,then what’s the point of it all.Other than a pointless charity benefit exercise for the over paid nerds,who are designing,marketing and making the expensive equally pointless robots,that we don’t need.When they might as well just let the driver do the job he’s already being paid to do.While assuming full autonomy you can bet that at worse we’ll end up with expensive dangerous anarchy on the roads caused by machines which haven’t got a clue.Or at best Brit drivers ending up on the scrap heap to be replaced by Oriental robot vehicle component manufacturing workers and their employers and a few people making money out of flogging the things.

The thing is, the labour theory of value shows that automation ultimately leads to free consumer goods (or goods that cost no more than the labour necessary to automate the activity).

And it’s impossible to make money from mass production without paying mass wages. Systemically, mass production works by the rich creaming off a small percentage of mass production for their personal consumption (with the majority of the consumption performed by the masses, who are paid a wage to engage in the production of the things they also ultimately consume, their wages being both the reward for production and the means of purchase for consumption).

If they automate mass production, then the amount of productive labour being employed, and therefore available to be “creamed”, is severely curtailed. The capitalist who automates his factory still gets his share of the output, but it’s a share of a product that is now near valueless on the market, having required little or no labour input.

Better than the fate of those who don’t automate though - by continuing to engage in labour-intensive production, they forfeit their capital when the time comes to sell their labour-intensive products on a market awash with cheap, automatically-produced goods.

Rjan:
Better than the fate of those who don’t automate though - by continuing to engage in labour-intensive production, they forfeit their capital when the time comes to sell their labour-intensive products on a market awash with cheap, automatically-produced goods.

^ That based on the premise that automating the driver role will actually be cheaper for the operator than employing drivers.

When example suggests that automation for the sake of it does nothing to reduce factory gate and retail prices in real terms.While the net effect is to make what jobs remain either lower paid and/or lower quality reducing spending power to buy the goods and less attractive to the employee.Such as the example of the move to CNC machine tools reducing the amount of skilled labour required for manually operated ones.But making the remaining human input an even more boring,relatively less attractive job,requiring a net increase in wages to retain the required human intervention but with an overall net reduction in staffing levels and therefore spending power in the economy.In addition to more expensive to buy and more complicated to maintain,tooling.All of which resulting in a net loss to the economy. :bulb:

Carryfast:

Rjan:
Better than the fate of those who don’t automate though - by continuing to engage in labour-intensive production, they forfeit their capital when the time comes to sell their labour-intensive products on a market awash with cheap, automatically-produced goods.

^ That based on the premise that automating the driver role will actually be cheaper for the operator than employing drivers.

Well, I would suggest any “automation” that doesn’t lead to reduced costs, is not automation at all. Maybe the employer in such a case has just reshuffled the labour costs of his operation - I’ve certainly seen that happen myself.

When example suggests that automation for the sake of it does nothing to reduce factory gate and retail prices in real terms.While the net effect is to make what jobs remain either lower paid and/or lower quality reducing spending power to buy the goods and less attractive to the employee.Such as the example of the move to CNC machine tools reducing the amount of skilled labour required for manually operated ones.But making the remaining human input an even more boring,relatively less attractive job,requiring a net increase in wages to retain the required human intervention but with an overall net reduction in staffing levels and therefore spending power in the economy.In addition to more expensive to buy and more complicated to maintain,tooling.All of which resulting in a net loss to the economy. :bulb:

I can conceive ways in which automation can unbalance the capitalist economy if it is used to attack bargaining power - for example, if they use automation selectively to undermine the wages of a part of the working class, which also then undercuts the scale of their own consumer mass market (because the only buyers left are the ones who haven’t had their wages attacked).

I know your fond of Henry Ford - he recognised that if he paid his workers substantially less, he’d undermine the buying power of many of his own consumers, and therefore would undermine the scale of his operation (and his operation required scale, in order to make the production lines profitable).

The key in your quoted case, however, is that replacing expensive workers with cheap workers is not automation. Much the same amount (or even, more) labour is required for the operation to work. That’s why productivity is flatlining in Britain (but not elsewhere).

But poor productivity is not itself a systemic problem (except to the extent it undermines international markets - putting Britain in the situation of the capitalist who fails to invest in automation whilst his competitors do. But the system will eventually right itself as foreign business with foreign managers conquer the British ones, and soak up the workers.).

The actual dysfunction arises because the capitalist has been successful in attacking the wages of his own consumers, without the capitalist himself using his newly-acquired funds to make up the lost consumption. That is, if half the people in society suddenly can’t afford cars, it doesn’t follow that the other half suddenly buy twice as many (especially if they are made to feel insecure themselves, by conditions of widespread poverty).

As the economy then faces a crisis of consumer demand, capital “goes on strike” and is hoarded, previously profitable production is ceased as consumer markets evaporate, in a vicious cycle. This type of crisis does not right itself through market-like mechanisms (except, at the very extreme, by political conquest, if the capitalist state fails to act).

It’s the classic case which Keynesianism is designed to solve, where taxation is used to remove excess capital from the capitalists (without compensation), and force it instead to be spent acquiring goods and services which workers are unable to afford from their wages (because of the initial capitalist attack).

Wars for national survival have also had the same effect in the past, by justifying both capital appropriation and increased wages in the national interest.

As the economy regenerates through Keynesian measures, and as the remaining private capital becomes able to generate a return again (because the demand is created, via the state appropriating the excess capital which should have originally been paid as wages), private capital “returns to work” again.

Like my previous post on casualisation, it’s another example of where the capitalists getting what they thnk they want, is the source of the systemic dysfunction, and it is the state that has to break the spell and intervene for the health of the system.

That’s basically why the IMF now decries austerity, because they recognise that they’re in a crisis of effective demand caused by the strength of capital against labour. And even the Tories (the sane, patrician ones) are arguing for more effective collective bargaining to redress it.

Rjan:
The key in your quoted case, however, is that replacing expensive workers with cheap workers is not automation. Much the same amount (or even, more) labour is required for the operation to work. That’s why productivity is flatlining in Britain (but not elsewhere).

But poor productivity is not itself a systemic problem (except to the extent it undermines international markets - putting Britain in the situation of the capitalist who fails to invest in automation whilst his competitors do. But the system will eventually right itself as foreign business with foreign managers conquer the British ones, and soak up the workers.).

The actual dysfunction arises because the capitalist has been successful in attacking the wages of his own consumers, without the capitalist himself using his newly-acquired funds to make up the lost consumption. That is, if half the people in society suddenly can’t afford cars, it doesn’t follow that the other half suddenly buy twice as many (especially if they are made to feel insecure themselves, by conditions of widespread poverty).

As the economy then faces a crisis of consumer demand, capital “goes on strike” and is hoarded, previously profitable production is ceased as consumer markets evaporate, in a vicious cycle. This type of crisis does not right itself through market-like mechanisms (except, at the very extreme, by political conquest, if the capitalist state fails to act).

It’s the classic case which Keynesianism is designed to solve, where taxation is used to remove excess capital from the capitalists (without compensation), and force it instead to be spent acquiring goods and services which workers are unable to afford from their wages (because of the initial capitalist attack).

Wars for national survival have also had the same effect in the past, by justifying both capital appropriation and increased wages in the national interest.

As the economy regenerates through Keynesian measures, and as the remaining private capital becomes able to generate a return again (because the demand is created, via the state appropriating the excess capital which should have originally been paid as wages), private capital “returns to work” again.

Like my previous post on casualisation, it’s another example of where the capitalists getting what they thnk they want, is the source of the systemic dysfunction, and it is the state that has to break the spell and intervene for the health of the system.

That’s basically why the IMF now decries austerity, because they recognise that they’re in a crisis of effective demand caused by the strength of capital against labour. And even the Tories (the sane, patrician ones) are arguing for more effective collective bargaining to redress it.

The connection that I was making was that automation itself can work against the Keynesian model by creating a situation in which less workers are needed to make the same amount of stuff so less consumer spending at that point.

While the automation itself can result in no net improvement in the cost base.Firstly in the the counterproductive situation of fewer,deskilled workers doing a less attractive job if any and ironically thereby demanding a higher wage.Together with the lose lose situation of higher tooling purchase and maintenance costs.

I’d guess that automation of the transport sector,especially the relatively labour intensive road transport sector of that,would be the definitive and ultimate example of that counterproductive downward spiral far more so than the change from manual machine tools to CNC in the manufacturing sector for example,with resulting massive implications for the economy as a whole.IE I’d guess the worst of all worlds of large scale redundancies with no way for the economy to replace the lost jobs.Net higher costs for operators at the mercy of the automated vehicle industry and market potentially to the point where the job is no longer viable.Together with falls in consumer spending to a greater or lesser degree caused by the job losses and knock on effects of those losses.Not to mention loads of disillusioned,unsuited,former drivers being forced into whatever alternative jobs might be available or the dole queue.In either case increasing the labour supply in an environment of greater or lesser falling consumer spending.

IE very real potential downsides.As opposed to exactly what potential upsides and for who here ?.On that note there’s a big difference between better tooling making the job easier for humans.As opposed to replacing humans to the point where the tooling is not only pointless excess but also makes itself redundant and a counterproductive liability in acting against the interests of those it’s supposedly working for/with.In which case the Luddites were right but just fighting the wrong argument at the wrong time.

Carryfast:

Rjan:
[…]

The connection that I was making was that automation itself can work against the Keynesian model by creating a situation in which less workers are needed to make the same amount of stuff so less consumer spending at that point.

While the automation itself can result in no net improvement in the cost base.Firstly in the the counterproductive situation of fewer,deskilled workers doing a less attractive job if any and ironically thereby demanding a higher wage.Together with the lose lose situation of higher tooling purchase and maintenance costs.

That is not automation, that is reshuffling. Tooling and maintenance costs money because of their labour cost. Hard jobs cost more money than easy jobs because of their labour cost. If labour costs go up, or stay the same, relative to the same output, then that is a total failure to automate. That’s just replacing simple work with artisan work, or work that is mentally easy with work that is mentally hard.

I’d guess that automation of the transport sector,especially the relatively labour intensive road transport sector of that,would be the definitive and ultimate example of that counterproductive downward spiral far more so than the change from manual machine tools to CNC in the manufacturing sector for example,with resulting massive implications for the economy as a whole.IE I’d guess the worst of all worlds of large scale redundancies with no way for the economy to replace the lost jobs.Net higher costs for operators at the mercy of the automated vehicle industry and market potentially to the point where the job is no longer viable.Together with falls in consumer spending to a greater or lesser degree caused by the job losses and knock on effects of those losses.Not to mention loads of disillusioned,unsuited,former drivers being forced into whatever alternative jobs might be available or the dole queue.In either case increasing the labour supply in an environment of greater or lesser falling consumer spending.

IE very real potential downsides.As opposed to exactly what potential upsides and for who here ?.On that note there’s a big difference between better tooling making the job easier for humans.As opposed to replacing humans to the point where the tooling is not only pointless excess but also makes itself redundant and a counterproductive liability in acting against the interests of those it’s supposedly working for/with.In which case the Luddites were right but just fighting the wrong argument at the wrong time.

True automation is a boon for humanity, because the immediate implication is that the exact same lifestyles can be had for less work.

It does not work against Keynesian stimulus - which might broadly be characterized as taking money off those who have too much, and giving it to spend by those who have too little.

It’s merely a somewhat different kind of problem, which requires the capitalists to distribute the available work amongst all wage earners (so that the fruits of automation are not hoarded). A policy of full employment can be achieved in the context of automation by putting everyone on a 30 hour working week, and imposing higher wages on capitalists that over-work individuals so as to maintain the competitiveness of those that don’t.

According to this Swedish outfit ‘Einride’ we’re an outdated industry that uses 500 million barrels of oil on European trucks alone. I can see them being used on yard shunting duties before being let loose on the road. insideevs.com/check-this-out-an … apability/