Winseer:
Horse Racing punters never back the outsiders in racing. In nearly thirty years of watching other people’s betting (and losing!) habits on the side, I have come to the conclusion that the “Mainstream” of anything at all that it “public behaviour” amounts to “fear of being different in public”. Lose that fear, and then one can get past this self-destructive urge that demands that “It is better to be wrong in a ;arge crowd, than wrong by yourself or in small groups.”UKIP are now 25-1 and shorter to “win the most seats at the next election”. This is in from 1000-1 just six months ago.
No one is reporting it, if I report it - it will no doubt be written off as “fake news”.
I don’t care what facts the opponents of Brexit choose to believe though. I’m talking about the ultimate predictive nature of human nature here.What behaviour is most likely to be seen at the next election, where I believe “Those who didn’t vote last time” will be the key to it’s final result?
Will people turn out in droves to support Corbyn, and get him over the line?
Will people turn out to STOP Corbyn?
Will people turn out to support UKIP and get them any number more seats than Zero this time around?
Will people turn out to STOP UKIP?Take a good long hard look at those four options…
At last year’s general election, a good number of UKIP voters from 2015 - switched to Labour for whatever reason. Maybe it was just to give Theresa May and her air of complacency a “good fright”.I am looking at what is likely, what is possible and what is probable when looking at the above options.
I would suggest that Corbyn’s high water mark is “already in” with the UKIP migrating vote of last year. The only way for Corbyn then, IMO is Downwards.
People turnout out to STOP Corbyn, even if it turns out to be “unnecessary” - will be supporting who? - The Tories? - Not this time. The Libdems? - Their dead cat bounce from 9 to 12 seats hardly shows any serious rally in the Libdem cause, probably because they’ve shot themselves in the foot by becoming a party of Remain.
Will people turn out to support UKIP? - Almost definitely, if Brexit is not done and completed by March 31st 2019.
Will people turn out to STOP UKIP? - There’s the complacency angle. I don’t think that people will BOTHER to get out and “Stop UKIP” this time around - simply because "How do you knobble a party already on what’s perceived as “Rock Bottom Zero Seats”?How do you smash up something where the debris is already smashed to bits in turn?
I predict the opponents of UKIP will “not rate UKIPs chances” - and the main casualties of such a “backdoor surge” by UKIP would be those seats where UKIP were second to Labour last time around.
Thus, the same people that got Blair elected, and decided to move on to Cameron (and Cleggy) will end up being the same people who’ll in the future - decide if UKIP get to win more than Zero seats or not…As for the exact number of seats they need to be involved in Government… It depends if either or both Labour/Conservative Party can muster around 300 seats or not…
If they do, then UKIP, who’ll obviously need more seats than the DUP have right now - would only need 26 seats to form a coalition government with Tory or Labour on 300… Should Tory AND Labour BOTH get 300 seats, with UKIP on 26 - then I would predict that there would be a LabCon pact “just to keep UKIP out” which would leave UKIP as “The official opposition”, and on the Privvy Council.THIS in turn, is rather similar to what has already happened in Germany where AfD went from zero to 94 seats in one hit, got denied a coalition place by the panicing mainstream parties, and now find THEMselves as “Official Opposition”. Forget their different PR system of voting. Trump managed to harness the “electoral college” system to his advantage, after all - similar to our First-past-the-post system.
The next election is wide open. At present, I would predict a six-way split of parties with over 10 seats apiece.
Once UKIP gain seats at any point in the future - it can only lose those seats again this time around - with a Brexit completed to the Public’s satisfaction.
Since Remainers are not going to be happy with ANY kind of Brexit - there’s no point in the centerists trying to placate them. Don’t bother. It’s Hard Brexit or NO Brexit from here on in, with the mainstream politicians paying the price for their feet of clay for as long as they’ve been kicking the ball down the road with.
Some races like the Grand National are usually better with betting on outsiders and betting on the favourites in the Derby.
Have to say though that Cameron/Clegg voters and Blair voters obviously ain’t going to vote for Leaving the EU.While it’s anyone’s guess what the previous non vote will do.While it’s a reasonable bet that the numerous brainwashed youth vote,who were moaning about not being able to vote in the EU referendum,will be old enough to vote in the next General Election even if it’s held as early as the Autumn.In which case the LibDems seem to be the biggest benificiaries which is maybe what remainer May is counting on.While like UKIP’s fortunes unfortunately the Leave vote was always about an aggregate based vote not a constituency based one.On that note if it was all about making a few bob on an outside bet regarding the most seats ‘gained’ my money would be on the LibDems sufficient to form a new remain alliance with the Cons or even Labour and that will be the end of Brexit for sure.Bearing in mind that even Raab has confirmed to me that Brexit will ultimately be decided by General Election not the deliberately non binding referendum. 
