the modernisation of the EU would be good, but with 28 or 27 countries having to agree and policies that are being driven by the ideology of an intergrated and expanding EU, I don’t see how it can happen, unless they get some proper shocks so they are forced to change direction or the whole project will collapse.
the UK voting to leave was a bit of a blow, as I think many thought it would never happen, but I’m not sure it’s enough of a shock for the EU to re-evaluate it’s direction.
As for the op’s question, like others not sure, but I think, despite the retoric from some in the EU and the UK, the needs of business and therefore employment will force them to find practical solutions, so trade can continue without too much disruption.
And despite the various governments round the EU saying no negotiations until article 50 is invoked, I bet there are plenty of discussions going on already. They’ll be an agreement where the EU can say the UK is still a valued member of the club in some capacity (it’s not we ever really committed ourselves to it anyway) and the UK government can say they have negotiated a great exit deal for the UK. It won’t please the ■■■■■■■■ leavers or remainers, but will probably be enough for most people to accept.