Tommy Robinson, saint or sinner?

I’ve voted for the Libdems more often than any other party in my life! - and I voted Leave!

Now I’ve done that, the Libdems don’t represents me any longer, and consequently I’ll never vote Libdem again.

If May fudges Brexit, then I’ll not be voting Conservative again, neither.

Labour still have not come up with a plan for a Brexit of their own, so I’ve yet to vote Labour for the first time in my life.

I’ve only voted UKIP twice so far - in the 2015 general election, and in the MEP Euro elections, where UKIP ended up winning the most seats of the UK MEPs’.

UKIP remain outsiders for the next general election - but like my analogy regarding Horse Racing - “big priced winners” happen in Horse Racing nearly every day. Not just in the massive highly competetive fields like the Grand National or Derby either. One’s best bet in either of these races is to back one of the outsiders - and back them each way, so you can still get a nice payoff for finishing 4th, 5th, or even 6th with today’s bookmaker bonuses they offer about the big races…

I’m not saying UKIP represent a value bet @ the 25-1 they are now to “win the most seats at the next election” - that value was when UKIP were 1000-1 purely because they have zero seats. A shrewdie would have noticed that the AfD in Germany went from zero seats to 94 seats in one hit - but alas, when I observed that happen, the 1000-1 had already shortened to 200-1, and I let it be. I also tipped Keir Starmer to be the next PM to Labour-voting Punters I know… HE was 1000-1 at the last election “to be Prime Minister by the end of 2020”… He is now quoted at 40-1 now, having been as short as 16-1 earlier this year…

I reckon the betting odds on these political characters bear watching for more accurate data than what any “Opinion Poll” will give you - as betting odds are averaged out all over the country by the actual weight of people’s money wagered upon the event in question.

Last year had a nice win from a tenner bet at 40-1 odds that Corbyn’s Labour would win between 250 and 299 seats… He was odds-on at that moment to LOSE between 50 and 100 seats btw… THAT is the low-optimism moment you grab that value bet of course…

At present, I have a tenner on at 66-1 that Graham Brady (“Northern Powerhouse”) will be the next PM after Theresa May falls… That price has since gone out to 100-1, so the value is still there, if you think it’ll be the 1922 committee that ultimately brings May down, as I do. :stuck_out_tongue: I might pump it again, as we get closer to the Autumn Budget that could seriously do with being sidestepped… Eye-watering tax hikes in the pipeline - IF May and Hammond are still in Downing Street by that point!